international 101 - the global economic landscape (dr. ted c. jones)
DESCRIPTION
This is a presentation on the Global Economic Landscape by Dr. Ted C. Jones at HAR's International 101 Day.TRANSCRIPT
Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist
Stewart Title Guaranty Company
The Global
Economic Landscape
Global 2014 GDP Forecasts
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx
Economic Information
Country Specific
GDP Projections
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/update/02/
Be Informed
http://www.census.gov/population/international/
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/
New Zealand Transaction Costs
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/faq/guide-transaction-costs
U.S. Current Positives
• More Jobs Than Anytime in History
• YTD 58% of New Jobs Pay More • Interest Rates Highly Affordable • Significant Demographic Demand
129
131
133
135
137
139
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted
1.93% Prior 12 Months 214,000 Net New Jobs in October 2.643 Million in Past 12-Months
U.S. Job Numbers
U.S. Average Number of New Jobs Per Month – Prior 12 Months
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
15
Jobs - Thousands
220
Job Growth by State
September Data
Total
Percent New Jobs Jobs
Rank State Growth
1 North Dakota 5.09% 22.8 470.4
2 Texas 3.67% 413.7 11,672.2
3 Utah 3.58% 46.3 1,340.5
4 Nevada 3.24% 38.2 1,217.9
5 Delaware 2.94% 12.6 441.1
6 Colorado 2.81% 67.4 2,464.5
7 Florida 2.70% 205.6 7,827.2
8 North Carolina 2.67% 108.5 4,170.0
9 Oregon 2.45% 41.2 1,722.6
10 South Carolina 2.27% 43.2 1,946.2
12 Months
Thousands
• 2.923 million total jobs in the MSA – most in history
• 120,700 net new jobs in prior 12 months -- +4.21 percent
• Home sales up 4.27% Y-O-Y 12-month moving average Selling as many homes today as at the subprime lending peak under
the most restrictive lending ever seen
• Average price $257,000 up 9.33% Y-O-Y 12-month moving average
• Median price $190,100 up 9.60% Y-O-Y 12-month moving average
• 2.9 months inventory available for sale – 6 months considered normal
• 60,505 new permits equates 1.86 new jobs per new dwelling
1.25 to 1.50 net new jobs per new dwelling considered normal
• 10th best trailing 12 months commercial sales tally in last 57 quarters
Houston Summary Points November 2014
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted
4.31% Prior 12 Months 120,700 Net New Jobs
Houston MSA Job Numbers
Houston Existing Home Prices
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Median Price $ Thousands
Houston Association of REALTORS®
Houston MSA Residential Building Permits
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,00099
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14f
Single Family Multifamily
Number of Dwelling Units
2014 12-Months Ending
August 2014
1.86 Net New Jobs Per New Dwelling Unit in Latest 12-Months
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months
+12.27%
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Houston Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months
-14.2% Year Over Year
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
Number Volume
Market Properties $ Millions
Canada 872 $23,401.0
China 80 $7,640.2
Norway 82 $6,504.7
Singapore 20 $4,758.1
Switzerland 102 $4,682.5
Germany 86 $4,616.4
Japan 58 $4,050.1
Israel 103 $3,784.5
Hong Kong 54 $3,101.5
Other 601 $25,717.5
Total 2,058 $88,256.4
Top Foreign Buyer Market Buyers
Offshore Buyers of US Commercial Real Estate – Latest 24 Months
Offshore Buyers of US Commercial Real Estate – Latest 24 Months
Number Volume
Market Properties $ Millions
Manhattan 110 $19,570.7
Los Angeles 74 $8,471.1
Boston 53 $6,192.6
Chicago 98 $4,373.1
Washington, DC 34 $4,290.6
San Francisco 51 $3,983.6
Hawaii 13 $2,990.1
Houston 77 $2,529.7
Dallas 84 $1,938.5
Other 1,464 $33,916.4
Total 2,058 $88,256.4
Top Foreign Buyer Market Destinations
Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist
Stewart Title Guaranty Company 1980 Post Oak Blvd., Suite 300 Houston, Texas 77056 United States of America Email: [email protected] Office 713.625.8014
Twitter – DrTCJ blog.stewart.com/ted stewart.com