international and domestic economic trends
TRANSCRIPT
0.800
0.900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1.500
1.600
US$ / EURO
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
Pe
rce
nta
ge
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(Percentage of Labour Force)
US / UK
US UK
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of Labour Force)
Japan / Germany
JAPAN GERMANY
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Perc
en
tag
e
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YEARLY %
US / UK
US UK
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Perc
en
tag
eINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
YEARLY %JAPAN / GERMANY
JAPAN
GERMANY
300
800
1300
1800
2300
No
v-7
9
No
v-8
1
No
v-8
3
No
v-8
5
No
v-8
7
No
v-8
9
No
v-9
1
No
v-9
3
No
v-9
5
No
v-9
7
No
v-9
9
No
v-0
1
No
v-0
3
No
v-0
5
No
v-0
7
No
v-0
9
No
v-1
1
No
v-1
3
No
v-1
5
US Housing Starts (thousands of units)
2015 2016 2017
World 3.1 3.2 3.5
US 2.4 2.4 2.5
Japan 0.5 0.5 -0.1
EURO 1.68 1.5 1.6
RSA* 1.3 0.4 1.3
China 6.9 6.5 6.2
India 7.3 7.5 7.5
Forecast Growth in real GDP
Source: BER * and IMF World Economic Outlook April 2016
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Pe
rc
en
tag
eCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
US / UK (Annual Percentage Change)
US UK
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Pe
rc
en
tag
eCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Germany / Japan(Annual Percentage Change)
JAPAN GERMANY
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Pe
rce
nta
ge
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXCHINA / INDIA
(Annual % change)
China India
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4D
ec-6
8
De
c-7
1
De
c-7
4
De
c-7
7
De
c-8
0
De
c-8
3
De
c-8
6
De
c-8
9
De
c-9
2
De
c-9
5
De
c-9
8
De
c-0
1
De
c-0
4
De
c-0
7
De
c-1
0
De
c-1
3
%US Budget Surplus/Deficit as % of Nominal GDP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Perc
en
tag
e6 MONTH LIBOR RATE
Yearly %US / UK
US UK
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Perc
en
tag
e6 MONTH LIBOR RATE
Yearly %JAPAN / EURO
JAPAN EURO
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
Perc
en
tag
e
10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDUS / UK
US
UK
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Perc
en
tag
e
10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDJapan / Germany
JAPAN
GERMANY
-4-202468
1012141618
Ja
n-7
5Ja
n-7
7Ja
n-7
9Ja
n-8
1Ja
n-8
3Ja
n-8
5Ja
n-8
7Ja
n-8
9Ja
n-9
1Ja
n-9
3Ja
n-9
5Ja
n-9
7Ja
n-9
9Ja
n-0
1Ja
n-0
3Ja
n-0
5Ja
n-0
7Ja
n-0
9Ja
n-1
1Ja
n-1
3Ja
n-1
5
US 10 Year Bond Yield vs. Inflation Rate (%)
US Bond yield US Inflation
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000M
ar-
97
Ma
r-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Baltic Dry Index
100
600
1100
1600
2100
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
2
Ja
n-1
4
Ja
n-1
6
Gold and Platinum Price ($/oz)
Gold Platinum
101520253035404550556065707580859095100105110115120125130135140145
OIL BRENT SPOT$/BARREL
859095100105110115120125130135140145150155160165170175180185190195200205210215220225230235240245250255260265270275280
ALL COMMODITIES $ INDEX 95=100 - ECONOMIST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Maize and Wheat Prices (R/MT)
WHITE MAIZE WHEAT
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
SOYBEANS PIT CBOT (5000 BU MIN CENTS/BUSHEL)
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850Ju
l-94
Ju
l-96
Ju
l-98
Ju
l-00
Ju
l-02
Ju
l-04
Ju
l-06
Ju
l-08
Ju
l-10
Ju
l-12
Ju
l-14
Ju
l-16
$/T
on
ne
White Sugar LIFFE ($/Tonne) - Near Future
3579
11131517192123
De
c-8
8
De
c-9
0
De
c-9
2
De
c-9
4
De
c-9
6
De
c-9
8
De
c-0
0
De
c-0
2
De
c-0
4
De
c-0
6
De
c-0
8
De
c-1
0
De
c-1
2
De
c-1
4
$/1
00
po
un
ds
Rice Futures in Chicago ($/100 pounds)
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
185
205
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Iron Ore Spot 62% (US$/tonne)
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
Fe
b-0
2
Fe
b-0
3
Fe
b-0
4
Fe
b-0
5
Feb
-06
Fe
b-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Fe
b-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Feb
-11
Fe
b-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Fe
b-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Feb
-16
Coal Richards Bay ($/tonne)
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Oct-
12
Oct-
13
Oct-
14
Oct-
15
Manganese Ore 37% FOB Port Elizabeth ($/dmtu)
Germany 80.997
Japan 127.103
UK 63.743
USA 318.892
Australia 22.508
India 1236.345
China 1355.693
South Africa 54.00
World Population (In Millions)
3.5
5.5
7.5
9.5
11.5
13.5
15.5
SA RAND/US$
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Exch
an
ge R
ate
EURO / RAND
456789
10111213
20
01
/08
/19
20
02
/02
/19
20
02
/08
/19
20
03
/02
/19
20
03
/08
/19
20
04
/02
/19
20
04
/08
/19
20
05
/02
/19
20
05
/08
/19
20
06
/02
/19
20
06
/08
/19
20
07
/02
/19
20
07
/08
/19
20
08
/02
/19
20
08
/08
/19
20
09
/02
/19
20
09
/08
/19
20
10
/02
/19
20
10
/08
/19
20
11
/02
/19
20
11
/08
/19
20
12
/02
/19
20
12
/08
/19
20
13
/02
/19
20
13
/08
/19
20
14
/02
/19
20
14
/08
/19
20
15
/02
/19
20
15
/08
/19
20
16
/02
/19
20
16
/08
/19
AUD/ZAR
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
3550
4050
4550
5050
5550
6050
6550
7050Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
2
Ja
n-1
4
Ja
n-1
6
FTSE 100 Index and German Dax Index
FT100 (left axis) Dax (right axis)
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
6500
11500
16500
21500
26500
31500
36500
41500
46500
51500Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
2
Ja
n-1
4
Ja
n-1
6
JSE All Share Index and Dow Jones Industrial Index
All Share (left axis) Dow (right axis)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Pe
rc
en
tag
eSOUTH AFRICAN GDP AT CONSTANT
2010 PRICES 2016 = BER forecast
-250000
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
R B
illi
on
SOUTH AFRICAN CURRENT ACCOUNT (Bln R)
Seasonally Adjusted and Annualised
-125000
-100000
-75000
-50000
-25000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
SOUTH AFRICAN NET CAPITAL MOVEMENT
Portfolio Other FDI
R M
illio
n
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Rm
illio
n
GOLD & FOREIGN RESERVES
Foreign Reserves Gold Reserves
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
EMPLOYMENT NON-AGRICULTURAL SA 2006 = 100
-1.9
-3.8
-7.3
-5.7
-4.7-4.5 -4.6
-3.8
-2.3-2.0 -1.9
-1.4-1.1
-2.2
-1.4
-0.3
1.0 1.0
-1.1
-6.5
-4.3
-3.7
-4.3
-3.9 -3.9 -3.9
-3.2
-2.8
-2.4
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
%
Government FinanceSurplus / Deficit as % of GDP2015/16 - 2018/19: National Treasury forecast
-9.0
-4.0
1.0
6.0
11.0
16.0
21.0
Pe
rce
nta
ge
SOUTH AFRICAN INFLATIONPPI - PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
SOUTH AFRICAN CPI
HEADLINE CPI
4
9
14
19
24
Perc
en
tag
e
SOUTH AFRICAN INTEREST RATES
R 186 Prime rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
31/0
1/9
0
199
0/0
7/3
1
199
1/0
1/3
1
199
1/0
7/3
1
199
2/0
1/3
1
199
2/0
7/3
1
199
3/0
1/2
9
199
3/0
7/3
0
199
4/0
1/3
1
199
4/0
7/2
9
199
5/0
1/3
1
199
5/0
7/3
1
199
6/0
1/3
1
199
6/0
7/3
1
199
7/0
1/3
1
199
7/0
7/3
1
199
8/0
1/3
0
199
8/0
7/3
1
199
9/0
1/2
9
199
9/0
7/3
0
200
0/0
1/3
1
200
0/0
7/3
1
200
1/0
1/3
1
200
1/0
7/3
1
200
2/0
1/3
1
200
2/0
7/3
1
200
3/0
1/3
1
200
3/0
7/3
1
200
4/0
1/3
0
200
4/0
7/3
1
200
5/0
1/3
1
200
5/0
7/3
1
200
6/0
1/3
1
200
6/0
7/3
1
200
7/0
1/3
1
200
7/0
7/3
1
200
8/0
1/3
1
200
8/0
7/3
1
200
9/0
1/3
1
200
9/0
7/3
1
201
0/0
1/3
1
201
0/0
7/3
1
201
1/0
1/3
1
201
1/0
7/3
1
201
2/0
1/3
1
201
2/0
7/3
1
201
3/0
1/3
1
201
3/0
7/3
1
201
4/0
1/3
1
201
4/0
7/3
1
201
5/0
1/3
1
201
5/0
7/3
1
201
6/0
1/3
1
%
SA vs US interest rates
US 6m Libor
SA 6m Jibar
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ma
r-6
9
Ma
r-7
2
Ma
r-7
5
Ma
r-7
8
Ma
r-8
1
Ma
r-8
4
Ma
r-8
7
Ma
r-9
0
Ma
r-9
3
Ma
r-9
6
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
r-0
2
Ma
r-0
5
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
r-1
4
%Household Debt to Disposable Income %
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ma
r-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Gro
wth
%Private Consumption Expenditure
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Fe
b-9
6
Fe
b-9
7
Fe
b-9
8
Fe
b-9
9
Fe
b-0
0
Fe
b-0
1
Fe
b-0
2
Fe
b-0
3
Fe
b-0
4
Fe
b-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Fe
b-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Fe
b-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Fe
b-1
1
Fe
b-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Fe
b-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Fe
b-1
6
%Growth in M3 vs Private Sector Credit Extension
PSCE
M3