international bribes measure corruptioncar.aauni.edu/wp-content/uploads/presentation_1_picci.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
-
International bribes measure corruption
Lucio Picci
Conference ANTIcorruption&fraud:DETECTION & MEASUREMENT Prague, April 7 2017
University of Bologna
-
ESCHER’S DRAWING HANDS
2
-
DRAWING WHAT?
• A fascinating, multi-faceted theme:
international corruption • An essential practical problem: measuring
corruption • → new measure!
3
-
INTERNATIONAL BRIBES
• A firm from the “headquarters country” (HQ) bribes public officials in a “foreign country” (FO)
We do not consider other types of “international
corruption”
4
-
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
Linked with other crimes, such as: Illegal Financial Flows (IFFs)
IFFs out of Africa > Aid to Africa! Corporate gov, & compliance Complex int. law issue, etc. Complex policing
5
-
MEASURES OF CORRUPTION
• Perception-based (TI-CPI, WB-CCI) Whose perceptions? Self-fulfilling?
• Judicial stats: not cross-country • Victimization stats: problematic, also for petty
corruption • “Objective measures”: the future
6
-
“OBJECTIVE” MEASURES
• • Hard data • Examples: Cost comparisons “red flags” on public procurements and.. The present “cross-border corruption”
measure
7
-
WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
• We need measures to assess causes/effects
of corruption & to assess anti-corruption policies Differences in space vs. changes in time
→ a measure might be ok for the former but not for the latter
8
-
INTERNATIONAL BRIBES
• In the old days, it was not a crime
• Then (‘70s), the Watergate and the Lockeed scandals came….
Lockeed bribed in several countries to sell its airplanes (JP, NL, BE, IT..)
9
-
1977: FCPA
• 1977: Foreign Corruption Practice Act A crime in the US to bribe abroad Transparency provisions Expansive interpretation of jurisdiction
US firms were not happy: 1999: OECD Anti-Bribery Convention
10
-
1999: OECD ANTI-BRIBERY CONVENTION • 41 members • Agreed to make it a crime in the home
jurisdictions to bribe abroad • Incentive not to enforce, particularly for
“national champions” • Monitoring: mixed success • But: US “stepped in” by prosecuting many
cases
11
-
A DATABASE OF CASES
• 945 cases, between (2000-2014)
• Where the case “enforced first”. It controls for judicial activity
Most often: in the “headquarters country” (HQ) (or 3
rd
country jurisdiction): 773 cases In the “foreign country”: 172 cases.
12
-
1ST ENFORCED NOT IN FO: BY HQ COUNTRY
13
Total Cases Positive Cases Ongoing Cases
N. of cases: 773 390 300
By HQ country
United States 319 204 92
Germany 61 26 35
United Kingdom 58 19 32
France 53 26 25
Switzerland 43 37 6
others 239 78 110
-
FIRST ENFORCED IN HQ: BY FO COUNTRY
14
Total Cases Positive Cases Ongoing Cases
N. of cases: 773 390 300
By FO country
China 94 49 39
Nigeria 36 26 5
Russia 31 14 14
India 28 11 14
Lybia 24 6 16
others 560 284 12
-
INT. BRIBES MEASURE CORRUPTION
• Cases 1st
enforced in a given jurisdiction, to assess corruption elsewhere.
• • Not subject to same criticisms of judicial
statistics! • Two applications: measure of corruption
(PACI) and of propensity to corrupt (BPI)
15
-
PACI VS. WB-CCI
16
-
PACI VS. PERCEPTION-BASED
• Levels of corruption: high correlation • • → WB-CCI (or TI-CPI) and PACI roughly tell the
same story • • What about changes in time, within
countries?
17
-
PACI VS. PERCEPTIONS
• Changes in time, within country • • PACI: 19 World regions, 3 5-year periods • TI-CPI, WB-CCI: comparable measure • • No correlation: • • → they tell a different story! • • •
18
-
TI-CPI, SPAIN
19
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TI-CPI, Spain
Ti-CPI
-
TI-CPI, SPAIN / 2
• But: After 2007, the two main sources of
corruption in Spain dried out: Building sector, public investments
Why perceptions deteriorated ? Spate of highly visible, high profile cases,
referring to pre-2008 crimes
20
-
MEASURING THE PROPENSITY TO CORRUPT
21
-
BRIBE PAYERS CORRUPTION INDEX
• TI-BPI: asks entrepreneurs: “(select countries you do business with)”
“For each of the countries you have selected, could you please tell us, using a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means never and 5 means almost always, how often do firms headquartered in that country engage in bribery in this country?”
• Cases 1st enforced in FO country • → BPCI. • Expressing the propensity of firms in a country
to bribe abroad
22
-
TI-BPI VS BPCI
• TI-BPI: developed countries where (perception of corruption) is higher, also “corrupt” more abroad
• → “Corruption as national guilt” • BPCI: Not so! Countries with more MNEs
corrupt more abroad (they have more chances to do so)
23
-
UNDERSTANDING CORRUPTION: WHERE ARE WE?
• PACI, BPCI: first “objective” cross-country measures of corruption
• Part of an important effort to better a) measure b) understand corruption
• A multifaceted reality: Corruption, not a “cancer”, but a “dimension” of
governance
24
-
ESCHER’S ‘DRAWING HANDS’
25
-
BELVEDERE?
26
-
RELATIVITY?
27
-
Thank you !
28