international center for environmental finance. environmental finance policy presentation #?:...

International Center For Environmental Finance.

Environmental Finance PolicyPresentation #?:

Capital Budgeting Decisions

CAPITAL BUDGETING

Capital Budgeting is used to describe how managers plan projects that have long-term implications such as the purchase of new equipment and the introduction of new products or services.

Managers have many potential projects that can be funded, hence, they must carefully select those projects that promise the greatest future return.

Typical Capital Budgeting Decisions

1. Cost reduction decisions. Should new equipment be purchased to reduce costs?

2. Expansion decisions. Should a new plant, warehouse, or other facility be acquired or built to increase capacity and sales?

3. Equipment selection decisions. Which of several available machines would be the most cost effective purchase?

4. Lease or buy decisions. Should new equipment be leased or purchased ?

5. Equipment replacement decisions. Should old equipment be replaced now or later?

Discounted Cash Flow

There are two approaches to making capital budgeting decisions by means of discounted cash flow.

1. The net present value2. The internal rate of return

The Net Present Value Method

Net present value is the difference between an investment’s market value and its cost.

In other words, net present value is a measure of how much value is created or added today by undertaking an investment, which will determine whether or not the project is an acceptable investment.


Example 1Moscow City Vodokanal is considering the purchase of a machine that will bring cash revenues of $20,000 per year. Cash costs (including taxes) will be $14,000 per year. The life of the machine is 8 years and its salvage cost will be $2,000. The project cost $30,000 to launch. We will use 15% discount rate.

Should the machine be purchased? If there are 1,000 shares of stock outstanding,

what will be the effect on price per share for taking this investment?


It may appear that the answer is obvious, since we pay only $30,00 for revenue of 8x($20,000-$14,000)+$2,000=$50,000

However, it is not that obvious.

To see if this investment is acceptable we have to perform Net Present Value Analysis


We need to calculate the present value of the future cash flows at 15 percent.

The net cash inflow will be $20,000 cash income less $14,000 in costs per year for eight years.

We have an eight-year annuity of $20,000-$14,000=$6,000 per year, along with a single lump-sum inflow of $2,000 in eight years.


Time(years) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Initial cost ($30)

Inflow $20 $20 $20 $20 $20 $20 $20 $20

Outflow -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14

Net inflow $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6

Salvage 2

Net cash flow ($30) $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $8


Present Value = $6,000x[1-(1/1.158)/0.15+ +(2,000/1.158)=($6,000 x

4.4873)+ +(2,000/3.0590)=$26,924+654= =$27,578

When we compare this to the $30,000 estimated cost ,we se that the NPV is:

NPV=-$30,000 + 27,578 = -$2,422Therefore, this is not a good investment


Now, lets answer the question regarding how this investment affect the value of our stock.

It will decrease the total value of our stock by $2,422. With 1,000 shares outstanding, we should expect a loss of value of $2,422/1,000 = $2,42 per share


Summary:

If the Net Present Value Is … Then the Project Is…

PositiveAcceptable, since it promisesa return grater than therequired rate of return

ZeroAcceptable, since it promisesa return equal the requiredrate of return

NegativeNot acceptable, since itpromises a return less thanthe required rate of return


Example 2Now let us consider an example that has different cash inflows in different periods.

Suppose we are asked to decide whether or not a new consumer service product should be launched.

Based on projected sales and costs, we expect that the CF over the 5 year life of the project will be $2,000 in the first two years, $4,000 in the next two, and $5,000 in the last year.

It will cost $10,000 to begin operation and we use 10% discount rate.

WHAT SHOULD WE DO?


Given the cash flows and discount rate, we can calculate the total value of the product by discounting the cash flows back to the present.

Present Value = ($2,000/1.1) + (2,000/1.12) + + (4,000/1.13) + (4,000/1.14) + (5,000/1.15)== $1,818 + 1,653 + 3,005 + 2,732 + 3,105 == $12,313

NPV = $12,313 – 10,000 - $2,313

Importance of Cash Flows

Although, the accounting net income figure is useful for many things, it is not used in discounted cash flow analysis.

The reason is that accounting net income is based on accrual concepts that ignore the timing of cash flows into and out of an organization.

The timing of cash flows is important, since a dollar received today is more valuable than a dollar received in the future.

Therefore, instead of determining accounting net income, the manager must concentrate on identifying the specific cash flows associated with an investment project.

Cash Outflows

Most projects will have an immediate cash outflow in the form of an initial investment in equipment or other assets.

In addition, some projects require expansion of the working capital.

Also, many projects require periodic repairs and maintenance and additional periodic costs – these should be treated as cash outflows.

Cash Outflows

Cash Outflows: Initial investment Increased working capital needs Repairs and maintenance Incremental operating costs

Cash Inflows

Any sound project will normally either increase revenues or reduce costs. And the amount involved should be treated as a cash inflow.

Cash inflows are also frequently realized from salvage of equipment when the project is terminated.

Also, upon termination of a project, any working capital that was tied up to the project can be released to for use elsewhere and should be trayed as cash inflow.

Cash Inflows

Cash Inflows: Incremental revenues Reduction in costs. Salvage value Release of working capital

Choosing a Discount Rate

To use the net present value method, we must choose some rate of return for discounting cash flows to their present value.

The firm’s cost of capital is usually regarded as the most appropriate choice for the discount rate.

The cost of capital is the average rate of return the company must pay to its long term creditors for the use of their funds.

Extended Example of the NPV Method

Example 3 GorVodokanal has an opportunity to offer new

service to an industrial client, but has to purchase supplies and equipment from a chemical manufacturer in order to provide that service.

The contract between all 3 parties is for 5 years with an option for renew.

GorVodokanal is responsible for all costs of promotion and distribution of its new service.

After careful study, GorVodokanal has estimated that the following costs and revenues would be associated with the new service:


Cost of equipment needed $60,000

Working capital needed 100,000

Overhaul of the equipment in four years 5,000

Salvage value of the equipment in five years 10,000

Annual revenue and costs:

Sales revenues 200,000

Cost of goods sold 125,000

Out of pocket operating costs (for salaries,advertising, and other direct costs) 35,000


At the end of the five-year period, the working capital would be released for investment elsewhere if contract will not be renewed.

GorVodokanal’s discount rate and cost of capital is 20%.

Would you recommend that GorVodokanal undertakes this project?


Sales revenue $200,000

Less cost of goods sold 125,000

Less out-of-pocket costs for salaries,advertising, etc. 35,000

Annual net cash inflows $40,000


Item Year(s)

Amount ofCashFlows

20% Factor

PresentValue ofCash Flows

Purchase of equipment Now ($60,000) 1 ($60,000)

Working capital needed Now -100,000 1 -100,000

Overhaul of equipment 4 -5,000 0.482* -2,410

Annual net cash inflowsfrom sales of the productLine

1-540,000 2.991^ 119,640

Salvage value of theequipment 5 10,000 0.402* 4,020

Working capital released 5 100,000 0.402* 40,200

Net present value $1,450


*From Present Value and ^Present Value of an Annuity Tables

Notice how working capital is handled in this exhibit. It is counted as a cash outflow at the beginning of the project and as a cash inflow when it is released at the end of the project.

Discounted Cash Flows –The Internal Rate of Return

Method

The Internal Rate of Return Method

The internal rate of return (IRR) method can be defined as the interest yield promised by an investment project over its useful life.

The IRR is computed by finding the discount rate that equates the present value of a project’s cash outflows with the present value of its cash inflows.

In other words, the IRR is that discount rate that will cause the NPV of a project to be equal zero.


Example 4 GorVodokanal is considering the purchase of

automatic water purification machine. At present, water is purified in a small labor intensive machine.

The new machine would cost 16,950 and will have a useful life of 10 years.

The new machine would do the job much more quickly and would result in labor savings of $3,000 per year


Initial cost $16,950

Life of the project (years) 10

Annual cost savings $3,000

Salvage value 0


To compute IRR promised by the new machine, we must find the discount rate that will cause NPV of the project to be zero.

To do that, we need to divide the investment in the project by the expected net annual cash inflow. This computation will give us a factor from which the IRR can be determined.

Factor of the IRR =

Investment Required

=$16,950

= 5.65Net annual cash inflow

$3,000


Thus, from our computations, the discount factor that will equate a series of $3,000 cash inflows with a present investment of $16,950 is 5.65.

Now, we need to find this factor in Present Value of an Annuity Table to see what rate of return it represents.

We should use the 10 period line in Present Value of an Annuity Table since the cash flows for the project continue for 10 years.

Present Value of an Annuity Table

Period 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

1 0.962 0.952 0.943 0.926 0.909 0.893 0.877

2 1.886 1.859 1.833 1.783 1.736 1.69 1.647

3 2.775 2.723 2.673 2.577 2.487 2.402 2.322

4 3.63 3.546 3.465 3.312 3.17 3.037 2.914

5 4.452 4.212 4.212 2.993 3.791 3.605 3.433

6 5.242 5.076 4.917 4.623 4.355 4.111 3.889

7 6.002 5.786 5.582 5.206 4.868 4.564 4.288

8 6.733 6.463 6.21 5.747 5.335 4.968 4.639

9 7.435 7.108 6.802 6.247 5.759 5.323 4.946

10 8.111 7.722 7.36 6.71 6.145 5.650 5.216

11 8.76 8.306 7.887 7.139 6.495 5.988 5.453


As we can see from Present Value of Annuity Table the internal rate of return promised by the water purification machine project is 12%.

We can verify this by computing the project’s net present value using a 12% discount return


Item Year(s)

Amountof CashFlows

12%Factor

PresentValue ofCashFlows

Annual cost savings 1-10 $3,000 5,650* $16,950

Initial investment Now -16,950 1,000 -16,950

Net present value $0


Once the IRR has been computed, what does the manager should do with the information?

The IRR should be compared to the company’s required rate of return, which is the minimum rate of return that an investment project must yield to be acceptable.

If the IRR is equal or greater than the required rate of return, then the project is acceptable.

If the IRR is less than the required rate of return, then the project is rejected.

The NPV of Return Method

The NPV method can be used to compare competing investment projects in two ways.

1. total-cost approach2. incremental-cost approach

The Total Cost Approach

Example 5 GorVodokanal has one of its pipe networks in

poor condition. This pipe network can be renovated at an immediate cost of $20,000. Further repairs and maintenance will be needed five years from now at a cost of $8,000. In all, this pipe network will be usable for 10 years if this work is done. At the end of 10 years, the pipe network will be scrapped at a salvage value of $6,000. The scrap value now is $7,000. It will cost $30,000 each year to operate pipe network, and revenues will total $40,000 annually


Alternative: GorVodokanal can purchase a new pipe network at a cost of $36,000. The new pipe network will have a life of 10 years and will require some repairs at the end of 5 years and will amount to $3,000. At the end of 10 years, it is estimated that the scrap value would be $6,000. It will cost $21,000 each year to operate the pipe network, and revenues will total $40,000 annually.

GorVodokanal requires a return of at least 18% on all investment capital.


New Pipe Network

Old Pipe Network

Annual revenues$40,000 $40,000

Annual cash operating costs21,000 30,000

Net annual cash inflows$19,000 $10,000


Item Year(s)

Amountof CashFlows

18%Factor*

PV ofCashFlows

Buy the new pipe network:

Initial investment Now ($36,000) 1.000 ($36,000)

Repairs in 5 years 5 ($3,000) 0.437 ($1,311)

Net annual cash inflows 1-10 19,000 4.494 85,386

Salvage of the old network Now 7,000 1.000 7,000

Salvage of the new network 10 6,000 0.191 1,146



Item Year(s)

Amountof CashFlows

18%Factor*

PV ofCashFlows

Keep the old pipe network:

Initial repairs Now ($20,000) 1.000 ($20,000)

Repairs in five years 5 ($8,000) 0.437 ($3,494)

Net annual cash inflows 1-10 10,000 4.494 44,940

Salvage of the old network 10 6,000 0.191 1,146



NPV of the New Pipe Network $56,221

NPV of the Old Pipe Network $22,590

NPV in favor of buying the New Network $33,631

The Incremental Cost Approach

When only two alternatives are being considered, the incremental cost approach offers a simpler and more direct decision.

Unlike the total cost approach, it focuses only on differential costs.

The Incremental Cost Approach

Item Year(s)

Amountof CashFlows

18%Factor*

PV ofCashFlows

Incremental investment requiredto purchase the new pipe network Now ($16,000) 1 ($16,000)

Repairs in five years avoided 5 $5,000 0.437 $2,185

Increased met annual cashinflows 1-10 $9,000 4.494 $40,000

Salvage of the old network Now 7,000 1 7,000

Difference in salvage value in 10 years 10 -0- - -0-

NPV in favor of buying the newNetwork 33,631

The Ranking of Investment Projects

When considering investment opportunities, managers must make two types of decisions:

1. screening, and2. preference decisions.

Screening decisions pertain whether or not proposed investments are acceptable.

Preference decisions come after screening decisions and attempt to rank selected projects in terms of preference.


Internal rate of Return Method When using IRR to rank competitive investment

projects, the preference rule is: The higher the IRR, the more desirable the project.

For example, an investment project with an IRR of 18% is preferable to another project that promises a return of only 15%.


Net Present Value Method

If the NPV method is used to rank projects, the NPV of one project cannot be compared directly to NPV of another project unless the investments in the projects are of equal size.

The Ranking of Investment Projects –NPV Method

Example 6

Investment

A B

Investment required ($80,000) ($5,000)

Present value of cash inflows 81,000 6,000

Net present value $1,000 $1,000


Each project has a net present value of $1,000, but they are not equally desirable.

The project requiring an investment of only $5,000 is much more desirable (especially when funds are limited) than the project requiring $80.000.

However, there is a way to compare the two projects on a valid basis – its called Profitability Index.


To calculate profitability index we need to divide the present value of all cash inflows by the investment required.

The formula for profitability index is:

Profitability index

=

Present value of cash inflows

Investment required


Investment

A B

Present value of cash inflows (a) $81,000 $6,000

Investment required (b) $80,000 $5,000

Profitability index (a)/(b) 1.01 1.20

Other Approaches to Capital Budgeting Decisions

1.The Payback Method2.The Simple Rate of Return

The Payback Method

The payback method centers on a spam of time known as the payback period.

The payback period is the length of time until the sum of an investment’s cash flows equals its cost.

The payback period rule is to take a project if its payback is less than some prespecified number of years.

The payback period is a flawed criterion, primarily because it ignores risk, the time value of money, and cash flows beyond the cutoff point.

The Payback Method

Example 7

GorVodokanal needs a new piece of equipment and considers two machines: machine A and Machine B.

Machine A costs $15,000 and will reduce operating costs by $5,000 per year.

Machine B costs $12,000 and will also reduce operating costs by $5,000 per year

Which Machine should be purchased?

The Payback Method

Payback period =Investment Required

Net annual cash inflow

Machine APayback period

=$15,000

= 3.0 years$5,000

Machine Bpayback period

=$12,000

= 2.4 years$5,000

GorVodokanal should purchase machine B, since it has a shorter payback period than A.

Evaluation of the Payback Method

The payback method is not a true measure of the profitability of an investment.

Managers should not make investment decisions based on this method alone. Instead it should be used as a screening tool to determine which projects are worth further consideration.

Evaluation of the Payback Method

Payback method does not take into account differences between useful lives between investments.

Furthermore, payback method does not consider the time value of money. A cash inflow to be received several years in the future is weighed equally with a cash inflow received today.

international center for environmental finance. environmental finance policy presentation #?:...

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