international coastal scientists’ prioritization of ... · introduction natural and social...

International coastal scientists’ prioritization of research needs for coastal management and conservationg

Murray A Rudd, Environment Department, University of YorkInternational LOICZ Open Science Conference 2011, Yantai China, 13 September 2011

Introduction

Natural and social science research aligned with decision-makers’ needs is required to help address coastal threats We thus need to understand the research priorities of scientists from different disciplines (and policy makers)Are research priorities consistent among coastal scientists?

Environment Department, University of YorkContact: Murray Rudd ([email protected])LOICZ OSC, Yantai China, 13 Sep 2011

Methods

From 7 recent ‘big question’ exercises, I identified and th i d 20 ti di tl l t d t t lsynthesized 20 questions directly related to coastal zones

Brown LE et al. 2010. Science of The Total Environment 409: 256-266 [UK water]]Fleishman E. et al. 2011. BioScience 61: 290-300 [USA biological diversity]Morton SR et al. 2009. Austral Ecology 34: 1-9 [Australia environment]Pretty J et al. 2010. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 8: 219-236 [global agricultural sustainability]Rudd MA et al. 2011. Conservation Biology 25: 476-484 [Canadian gy [biological diversity]Sutherland WJ et al. 2006. Journal of Applied Ecology 43: 617-627 [UK ecological issues]ecological issues]Sutherland WJ et al. 2009. Conservation Biology 23: 557-567 [global biological diversity]


Survey

Internet-based survey for global coastal scientistsPrioritize all 20 coastal research questions with a seriesPrioritize all 20 coastal research questions with a series of 15 best-worst scaling (BWS) rankings Hierarchical Bayesian analysis (ordered logit): individualHierarchical Bayesian analysis (ordered logit): individual priorities (likelihood of a question ranked most important)


Sample

ISI Web of Science search1 947 ti l t l1,947 articles on coastal threats, management, governance, and aquatic g , qpollution from 470 journals(2005 and 2010)2,078 unique authors from94 countries with email contact informationcontact informationUp to 5 contacts by email between 24 May and 23 June y2011 (standard Dillman social science survey protocol)


Data Analysis

First I looked at the patterns of responses (i.e., research priorities) second at demographic/professional covariatespriorities), second at demographic/professional covariates that can be used to predict those prioritiesLatent class (LC) analysisLatent class (LC) analysis

Objective: maximize heterogeneity across clusters, ensure homogeneity within clustersVary number of clusters to get the best matchChi-square tests used to identify demographic characteristics most able to predict patterns of research prioritiespredict patterns of research priorities


Response Rate

After email bounces, long-term leave, etc…, a total of 1 684 emails appear to have been successfully delivered1,684 emails appear to have been successfully delivered

50%

302 (17.9% of respondents) partially completed surveys

40%

50%

(%)

y y(not used here)n=592 (35.2% response rate) completed surveys

20%

30%

espo

nden

ts

from 91 countries97% scientists from academe or government

0%

10%

Re

69% male71% from the WestNo evidence of self %

Africa /Middle East

Asia Australia /NZ /

Oceania

Europe LatinAmerica /Caribbean

NorthAmerica

Completes Sample

No evidence of self-selection based on geography (χ2=7.99, df=5, p=0 1566)p 0.1566)


Aggregate BWS Rankings9.0

1. How do policy, legal, or institutional arrangements shape the effectiveness of integrated management for terrestrial watersheds

7.0

] (%

)

effectiveness of integrated management for terrestrial watersheds and adjacent coastal environments?

5.0Cho

ice

[Firs

t C

10. How will northern coastal ecosystems respond to changes in climate and industrial activity as a red ction in ice co er increases h man access to3.0

Pr [ reduction in ice cover increases human access to those ecosystems?

20. How do transboundary migrations of aquatic animals affect efforts to manage populations of those species?

1.001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

efforts to manage populations of those species?

Questions in Rank OrderEnvironment Department, University of York

Contact: Murray Rudd ([email protected])LOICZ OSC, Yantai China, 13 Sep 2011

Aggregate BWS Rankings

Few differences between demographic-based segments when priorities examined in aggregate (e g age)

9.0

)when priorities examined in aggregate (e.g., age)

7.0

oice

] (%

)

5.0

Firs

t Cho

1.0

3.0

Pr [F

1.001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Questions in Rank Order

Mean <40 yrs 40+ yrs


Latent Classes

But, what else can data tell us about sample heterogeneity?8 di i l l i d i f h i i i8 distinct latent classes varied in patterns of research prioritiesOnly 11 of 20 research questions needed to differentiate classes

How can latent classes be characterized?LC02. Human orientation: higher than average priority for questions 1(integrated upland coastal integrated management) 15 (human health(integrated upland-coastal integrated management), 15 (human healthimpacts), and 17 (MPA effects on human well being), while holding a lower than average priority for questions 13 (nursery grounds for fisheries), 16 (MPA biological effects) 19 (caged fish impacts on wild stocks) and16 (MPA biological effects), 19 (caged fish impacts on wild stocks), and 20 (transboundary species management)LC05. Marine ecology orientation: virtually opposite research priorities

d t LC02 LC05 b hi h th ticompared to LC02. LC05 members score higher than average on questions 13 and 16, and lower than average for questions 1, 2 (ocean acidification), 12 (renewable energy), 15, and 17


Latent Classes

12.0

10.0

] (%)

6.0

8.0

Choice]

OverallLC02

4.0

Pr [First

LC05

0.0

2.0P

01 03 05 10 12 13 15 16 17 19 20

Questions in rank order (overall mean)


Latent Classes

Other latent classesLC01 C t l i t ti i iti d b dLC01. Coastal resource orientation: prioritized broad resource extraction and human uses of the coastal zone with little emphasis on marine conservation or fisheriespLC03. Regional human orientation: priority questions included integrated upland-coastal integrated management,

bl d d fi h i t ild t k b trenewable energy, and caged fish impacts on wild stocks, but ranked the global issues of coral reefs and northern development as low prioritiesLC04. Global environment orientation. Nearly opposite LC03 priorities with coral reefs, saltwater intrusion and opening of northern aters (all iss es ith strong climate changeof northern waters (all issues with strong climate change connections) as their highest priorities, but with human health and MPA effects on humans receiving little support


Latent Classes

Other latent classes…LC06 R i l i l i l t i t tiLC06. Regional socio-ecological systems orientation: species-oriented questions most important; integrated management and human impacts of MPAs important. g p pResource industry and global ecological issues less importantLC07. Coral reef (non-fisheries) orientation: coral reefs at th t f th i i it li t i i t d tthe top of their priority list, species-oriented management issues at the bottom, and put relatively low emphasis on human health and MPA impactsLC08. Temperate species conservation orientation: ranked aquaculture impacts and transboundary species migration highest and integrated management and coral reefs as lo esthighest, and integrated management and coral reefs as lowest priorities.


Who Belongs to Which LCs?

Now, demographics becomes more interestingmore interesting…

Latent class cluster membership was most strongly differentiated by scientist’s disciplinary training (χ2=75.37, df=21, p=0.00037)p )Region of residence, age, education, sector of employment length ofemployment, length of employment, and number of publications scientists had

th d t i ifi tauthored were not significant predictors of latent class membership patterns.


Who Belongs to Which Classes?15.20%15.08%13.83%

coastal resource orientedhuman orientedregional human oriented

LC01 LC02LC03

13.79%12.94%11.17%10.11%

gglobally orientedmarine ecology orientedregional socio-ecological systems orientedcoral reef (non-fisheries) oriented

LC04LC05LC06 LC07

7.88%592

Disc

temperate marine conservation oriented

χ2=75.37, df=21,

LC08

Disciplines1 A i lt d lt

1-2,9

12.35%

3

26.29%

4,7

8.91%

5-6,8

17.57%

p=0.00037

LC01 LC02

1 – Agriculture and aquaculture2 – Biological sciences3 – Engineering and the applied sciences4 – Health professions5 – Law

10.19%12.34%13.77%18.58%13 53%

11.64%23.87%4.78%8.93%

14 82%

41.11%13.27%11.43%5.05%9 65%

16.05%13.10%17.10%8.30%7 20%

LC02LC03LC04LC05LC06

6 – Physical sciences and mathematics7 – Social sciences8 – Other [Respondent Specify – primarily

physical sciences]9 – NGO representatives and government non-13.53%

7.93%11.30%

280

14.82%7.62%2.06%

59

9.65%6.83%3.74%

53

7.20%14.77%5.89%200

LC06 LC07LC08

9 NGO representatives and government nonscientists (skipped disciplinary background)

S 3 4 Fit


Discussion

Focusing only on aggregate priorities may mask very strong differences inmay mask very strong differences in disciplinary research orientationCrucial for decision-makers to understand the orientation ofunderstand the orientation of science advice they receiveThere is a need for scientific balance

t l h i iti tion coastal research initiatives“Bonus”: 362 new research questionscontributed as ”replacements” for low priority questions (e.g., eutrophication, ecotoxicology) beyond biodiversity‘Big Questions’ exercises can be a useful tool for iterative processes to identify fine-scale research questions in an adaptive and participatory manner.


International coastal scientists’ prioritization of research needs for coastal management and conservationg

Murray A Rudd, Environment Department, University of YorkInternational LOICZ Open Science Conference 2011, Yantai China, 13 September 2011

20 Coastal Questions

20 questions (in order of aggregate priority)1. How do policy, legal, or institutional arrangements shape the effectiveness of 1. How do policy, legal, or institutional arrangements shape the effectiveness of

integrated management for terrestrial watersheds and adjacent coastal environments? [Rudd et al. (2011), Q38]

2. How will ocean acidification affect marine biodiversity and ecosystem function, and h t ld iti t th ff t ? [S th l d t l (2009) Q46]what measures could mitigate these effects? [Sutherland et al. (2009), Q46]

3. How will coastal aquifers and groundwater resources respond to sea level risethrough effects such as saltwater intrusion, and how can freshwater quality be maintained under these conditions? [Morton et al (2009) Q17]maintained under these conditions? [Morton et al. (2009), Q17]

4. How will coastal human communities be affected by sea-level rise and increasing levels of erosion? [Fleishman et al. (2011), Q37]

5. Which management actions are most effective for ensuring the long-term survival of g g gcoral reefs in response to the combined impacts of climate change and other existing stressors? [Sutherland et al. (2009), Q48]

6. What management approaches will be required to maintain or increase the b d f fi h d h llfi h l ti h h ti i f lti labundance of fish and shellfish populations when harvesting is one of multiple

stressors acting on those populations? [Rudd et al. (2011), Q08]



20 questions…7. To what extent can coastal habitat restoration or rehabilitation compensate for loss 7. To what extent can coastal habitat restoration or rehabilitation compensate for loss

of quantity or quality of existing species’ habitat? [Sutherland et al. (2009), Q53]8. Which management approaches to fisheries are most effective at mitigating the impacts

of fish extraction and fishing gear on non-target species and their habitats? [S th l d t l (2009) Q49][Sutherland et al. (2009), Q49]

9. How can aquaculture and open water farming be developed so that impacts on coastal and aquatic habitats are minimized? [Pretty et al. (2010), Q04]

10 How will northern coastal ecosystems respond to changes in climate and industrial10. How will northern coastal ecosystems respond to changes in climate and industrial activity as a reduction in ice cover increases human access to those ecosystems? [Rudd et al. (2011), Q21]

11. What are the effects of changes in human patterns of seafood consumption on g p pbiodiversity, and how are such human patterns of consumption shaped by education programs, financial incentives, and other policy instruments? [Sutherland et al. (2009), Q84]

12 Wh t th ti i t f l i t f bl h12. What are the comparative impacts of newly emerging types of renewable energy, such as wave energy, on coastal ecosystems and species? [Sutherland et al. (2006), Q66]

13. How will key fishery species be affected by changes to nursery grounds as coastal ecosystems undergo re-organization? [Morton et al. (2009), Q16]ecosystems undergo re organization? [Morton et al. (2009), Q16]



20 questions…14. How far should we go with managed realignment of coasts in order to adapt to sea-14. How far should we go with managed realignment of coasts in order to adapt to sea

level rise? [Brown et al. (2010), Q11]15. How do aquatic conservation policies directly or indirectly affect human health? [Rudd

et al. (2011), Q30]16. Within and outside of marine protected areas, how do the abundances and

distributions of species with different life histories respond to establishment of those areas? [Fleishman et al. (2011), Q39]

17 What are the impacts of alternative configurations of and management strategies for17. What are the impacts of alternative configurations of, and management strategies for, aquatic reserves on human well-being? [Rudd et al. (2011), Q17]

18. What are the cumulative demographic and genetic effects of harvest on target and non-target aquatic populations and species? [Rudd et al. (2011), Q09]g q p p p [ ( ), ]

19. How important are caged fishes as reservoirs of parasites and pathogens that have detrimental effects on wild populations? [Sutherland et al. (2006), Q25]

20. How do transboundary migrations of aquatic animals affect efforts to manage populations of those species? [Rudd et al. (2011), Q10]


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