international comparison of light-duty vehicle fuel economy. alex körner, international energy...
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Improving fuel economy and reduction of emissions from road transport in Russia 17-18 June 2014, MoscowTRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2012
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy
Alex Körner
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2012
Content
Methodology
Fuel economy trends by country
Car size/engine displacement/power trends
Market shift vs. technology evolution
Spotlight on Russia
Conclusions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Global Fuel Economy Initiative
1. Analysis: Data gathering, modeling, baseline development, projections
2. Evaluation of policy options
3. National strategy development, organization of dialogues
4. Awareness rising, communication
“How can we maximize the benefits of fuel efficiency in LDVs on a global scale, given the projected expansion of the global fleet?”
© OECD/IEA 2012
Definition of fuel economy
GFEI Fuel economy definition:
Energy per distance travelled – Lge/100km
CO2 emission per distance travelled – gCO2/km
© OECD/IEA 2012
Methodology
How do we calculate national average fuel economy of new cars?
New vehicle registration data from Polk: Detailed vehicle sales numbers by brand, model, powertrain, fuel, power,
displacement etc…
Vehicle fuel economy data, vehicle segment/class data are partly missing
Manual input of missing data based on model/sales sampling Satisfactory market coverage when CO2/FE data coverage >75% of total
sales
Comparison and convergence with official national CO2/fuel economy data when available (e.g. from EEA, EPA)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle size classification
GFEI analysis focuses on passenger light duty vehicles, light commercial vehicles are excluded for most of the countries
In Australia, Canada and US light commercial vehicles are included within passenger cars as this category comprises the large pick-up segment which are mostly used for passenger transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Test cycles
Globally, the following test cycles to measure new vehicle fuel economy are used:
Europe: New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) – also used in China , Australia,
Japan: JC08
US: FTP 75 – also used in Canada, Korea
Within the GFEI analysis the different tested fuel economy values are not harmonized
GFEI results are in line with officially published data
Harmonization is planned for the next data update
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy trends & market size
Significant fuel economy improvement can be observed if policies are in place
Size shift vs. technology evolution moderates Non-OECD improvement
Growth of markets with worse fuel economy affects global fuel economy trend
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.0
Fran
ce
Ital
y
Jap
an
Ind
ia
Turk
ey
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Ge
rman
y
Ind
on
esi
a
Thai
lan
d
Sou
th A
fric
a
Ch
ile
Arg
en
tin
a
Mal
aysi
a
Egyp
t
Ukr
ain
e
Bra
zil
Sou
th K
ore
a
Ru
ssia
Me
xico
Ch
ina
Can
ada
USA
Au
stra
lia
Wo
rld
EU 2
7
OEC
D
No
n-O
ECD
Lge
pe
r 10
0km
2005
2008
2010
2011
70 000 000 Sales 2011
© OECD/IEA 2012
Targets and reality
2005 2011 2030
8.1 7.0
7.5 7.5
8.0 7.2
8.0 4.0
2005 base year
2012 base year
2008
-3.0%
OECD
average
7.6
-2.2% -2.7%
-2.4%
average fuel economy (Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate (% per year)
Non-OECD
average
7.6
0.4% -0.6%
-0.1%
average fuel economy (Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate (% per year)
GFEI
target-2.7%
Global
average
7.6
-1.7% -1.8%
-1.8%
required annual
improvement rate
(% per year)
average fuel economy (Lge/100km)
average fuel economy (Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate (% per year)
2050: Improve global FE by 50%
OECD: rates close to target
Non-OECD: little improvement
Global: Right trend at slow pace
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle size evolution
OECD shows a trend towards smaller cars
In Non-OECD regions SUVs/trucks/vans are getting more popular
Globally, vehicle segmentation seems to converge
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
05
20
08
20
10
20
11
20
05
20
08
20
10
20
11
20
05
20
08
20
10
20
11
OECD Non-OECD World
large truck
F
E
D
Medium truck
C
Small truck
B
A
Vehicle segemetation
Small
Large
Medium
© OECD/IEA 2012
Market by displacement/power
Cars with medium sized engines, both with respect to displacement and power, saw increasing market shares in OECD and Non-OECD regions
Non-OECD cars have significantly smaller and less powerful engines
Note: global results for 2005 and 2008 are heavily affected by lack of data in Non-OECD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-OECD World
>3200
2801-3200
2401-2800
2001-2400
1601-2000
1201-1600
801-1200
<800
unknown
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-OECD World
>200
151-200
101-150
71-100
51-70
<50
unknown
Engine displacement Engine power
© OECD/IEA 2012
OECD market dynamics
Big markets with good fuel economy shrunk significantly 2010-2011
Big markets with worse fuel economy grew significantly 2010-2011
Although fuel economy improvement in most single markets was remarkable, the fuel economy improvement of the aggregated OECD market slowed down due to the internal market shift
© OECD/IEA 2012
Spotlight on Russia: Passenger car FE
Passenger car fuel economy improved at an annual rate of about 1% between 2005 and 2011 in Russia, while the market for passenger cars grew about 9% per year
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2005 2008 2010 2011
Tho
usa
nd
veh
icle
s so
ld
Lge/
10
0km
PC FE
PC sales
© OECD/IEA 2012
Spotlight Russia: Vehicle sales by size
In Russia an uptake of smaller cars can be seen over the years
Medium and large SUVs are getting more popular at the same time
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2008 2010 2011
Large truck
F
E
D
Medium truck
C
Small truck
B
A
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle efficiency pays back
Analysis for the IEA “Technology Roadmap on Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles” showed that fuel economy of passenger cars could be improved by 50% at additional costs of around 3000€ per car
© OECD/IEA 2012
Conclusions
Fuel economy improvement rate has accelerated in OECD marketsand is almost matching the GFEI target rate Fuel economy policy implentation (and GFEI actions) are fruitful
Non-OECD markets do not show much progress mainly due to the growing importance of larger classes Fuel economy policies (and more GFEI actions) are needed, especially to
limit vehicle size shift
As Non-OECD markets become more and more important, global fuel economy development increasingly depends on succesfulpolicy implementation in these regions
Fuel econonomy policies pay back both at the consumer level and at the macro – economic level
© OECD/IEA 2012
Thanks!
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy by segment
Large vehicles showed significant fuel economy improvement in all regions
Small vehicles improved fuel economy only marginally
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2005 2011 2005 2011 2005 2011
OECD Non-OECD World
Fuel
eco
no
my
(Lge
/100
km)
Small
Medium
Large
Average