international conference...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AdaptToClimateuest.ntua.gr/adapttoclimate/proceedings/full_paper/Adapt...Ch. Doulgeris1, D. Papadimos1 and J. Kapsomenakis2 27 – 28 March 2014 Filoxenia](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062919/5f01ce777e708231d4012104/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ch. Doulgeris1, D. Papadimos1 and J. Kapsomenakis2
27 – 28 March 2014
Filoxenia Conference Centre
Nicosia, Cyprus
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCEAdaptToClimate
Assessing the impact of climate change on thehydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece
1 The Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre2 Research Center of Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens
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Lake Cheimaditida
Lake Kerkini
Description of the study area
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Description of the study area - Lake Cheimaditida
Lake’s surface : 10 km2
Max water level: 592 m a.m.s.l
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Lake Cheimaditida
Lake Kerkini
Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini
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Lake’s surface : 73.2 km2
Max water level: 35.8 m a.m.s.l
Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini
L. Kerkini
Strymonas River
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Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini
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Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini
100.000 ha arable land84.000 ha are irrigated54.400 are irrigated from Lake Kerkini & Strymonas River
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The concept
Simulation of the lake’s water balance
Estimation of the lake’sWater volume
hypsographic curves
Lake’s Surface - Water Level
Historical climatic data
Future climatic data
Past & Present Future
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Methods and Tools
Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout
S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i
P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i
E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i
Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i
Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i
- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3
I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i
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Methods and Tools
Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout
S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i
P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i
E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i
Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i
Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i
- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3
I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i
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Methods and Tools
For the simulation of rainfall – runoff in thelakes’ catchments
MIKE BASIN isa GIS tool suitable for water resources management and planning
MIKE BASIN (NAM)was applied in bothcatchments
NAM a module of MIKE BASIN isa deterministic, lumped hydrological model which represents variouscomponents of rainfall-runoff process
NAM hydrological models of the lakes’ catchments were calibrated on observed time series of the lakes’ water level
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Methods and Tools
Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout
S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i
P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i
E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i
Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i
Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i
- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3
I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i
![Page 13: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AdaptToClimateuest.ntua.gr/adapttoclimate/proceedings/full_paper/Adapt...Ch. Doulgeris1, D. Papadimos1 and J. Kapsomenakis2 27 – 28 March 2014 Filoxenia](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062919/5f01ce777e708231d4012104/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Available Data
Monthly values of Temperature & Precipitation
Cheimaditida’s catchment January 1979 - December 1998
Kerkini’s catchment January 2001 - December 2006
Historical climatic data
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Available Data
Monthly values of Temperature & Precipitation
Emissions Scenarios A1B : 2020 – 2050A1B and A2 : 2070 - 2100
Were produced from the historical ones, which multiplied by theirexpected rates of change in the future due to climate change
Future climatic data
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Expected rates of change of Rainfall and Temperature
Emissions Scenarios
Season Rainfall Rate of Change
(%)
TemperatureRate of change
(%)A1B
2020 - 2050Spring
-7.56
12.50Summer 9.73Autumn 13.50Winter 41.26
A1B2070 – 2100
Spring -16.90 29.96Summer 20.20Autumn 26.96Winder 89.66
A22070 - 2100
Spring -16.5 39.86Summer 26.63Autumn 37.53Winder 144.30
Climate Change Impacts Study Committee, 2011
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Methods and Tools
Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout
S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i
P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i
E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i
Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i
Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i
- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3
I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i
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Available Data
The method of Thornthwaite was used for Potential Evapotranspiration
&Evaporation
Infiltration from the lakes’ bottom was considered:
Cheimaditida 5.1 mm/year
The irrigation demands per hahave been estimated
Cheimaditida Kerkini 5.560 m3/year 11.247 m3/year
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Results and Discussion
589.5
590
590.5
591
591.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Wat
er le
vel a
.m.s
.l. (m
)
1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100
Mean monthly water level (WL) in Lake Cheimaditida
WLm = 591.2
WLm = 590.8 (-40 cm)
WLm = 590.45 (-75 cm)
WLm = 590.35 (-85 cm)
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4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Surfa
ce a
rea
(km
2 )
1979-1998
Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100
Α2 / 2070-2100
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly surface area (SA) of Lake Cheimaditida
SAm = 8.96 km2
SAm = 7.14 km2 (-20%)
SAm = 5.92 km2 (-34%)
SAm = 5.61 km2 (-37%)
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Results and Discussion
Mean monthly catchment runoff x 106 (CR) into Lake Cheimaditida
CRm = 13.08 m3
CRm = 9.62 m3 (-26%)
CRm = 6.29 m3 (-52%)CRm = 6.03 m3 (-54%)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Dis
char
ge (m
3 /s)
1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100
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30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Wat
er le
vel a
.m.s
.l. (m
)
2001-2006
Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100
Α2 / 2070-2100
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly water level (WL) in Lake Kerkini
WLm = 32.6
WLm = 32.3 (-30 cm)
WLm = 31.9 (-70 cm)WLm = 31.8 (-80 cm)
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30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Surfa
ce a
rea
(km
2 )
2001-2006
Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100
Α2 / 2070-2100
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly surface area (SA) of Lake Kerkini
SAm = 55.44 km2
SAm = 52.88 km2 (-5%)
SAm = 48.9 km2 (-12%)
SAm = 47.7 km2 (-14%)
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Dis
char
ge (m
3 /s)
1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly catchment runoff x 106 (CR) into Lake Kerkini
CRm = 1563 m3
CRm = 1172 m3 (-25%)
CRm = 817 m3 (-48%)
CRm = 812 m3 (-48%)
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Ch. Doulgeris1, D. Papadimos1 and J. Kapsomenakis2
27 – 28 March 2014
Filoxenia Conference Centre
Nicosia, Cyprus
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCEAdaptToClimate
Assessing the impact of climate change on thehydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece
1 The Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre2 Research Center of Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens