international energy agency agence internationale de l’energie technology and trading systems a...
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE ETP Scenarios & Strategies 2050 “The WEO scenarios are not sustainable” (Claude Mandil) ETP supplements WEO as it shows new pathways to a sustainable future Emissions can be stabilised by 2050, if proper energy policies are implemented Assumes incentive $25/t CO 2 worldwide Technology plays a key role Key technology options and policies have been identifiedTRANSCRIPT
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Technology and Trading Systems
A Comment
Dolf GielenSenior Analyst
IEA
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Topics
The importance of technologyIssues for options/sectorsSpecific comments
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ETP Scenarios & Strategies 2050
“The WEO scenarios are not sustainable” (Claude Mandil)
ETP supplements WEO as it shows new pathways to a sustainable future
Emissions can be stabilised by 2050, if proper energy policies are implemented
Assumes incentive $25/t CO2 worldwide Technology plays a key roleKey technology options and policies have
been identified
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIETECH Plus: More optimistic on progress for certain key technologies
Mt CO2
Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2003 Baseline2030
Baseline2050
Map No CCS LowEfficiency
TECH Plus2050
Other
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Transformation
PowerGeneration
ACT Scenarios 2050
-16%
+137%
+6%+21% +27%
32 Gt CO2
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Map: OECD Emissions 32% below 2003 level, while emissions in Developing Countries are 65% higher
CO2 EmissionsBaseline and Map Scenarios
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
2003 Baseline2050
ACT Map2050
2003 Baseline2050
ACT Map2050
Mt C
O2
OECD Developing Countries
-32%
+65%
+70%
+250%
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Issues for Sectors
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Emission Reduction by Technology AreaACT Map Scenario
Improved energy efficiency most important contributor to reduced emissions
Other renewables 6%Biomass 2%
Fossil fuel gen eff 1%Nuclear 6%
Coal to gas 5%
Hydro 2%
CCS 12%
Fuel mix in building 5% and industry 2%
Power Gen34%
End-use efficiency
45%
Biofuels in transport 6%
CCS in fuel transformation 3%CCS in industry 5%
MAP Scenario – 205032 Gt CO2 Reduction
Materials & products efficiency 1% Energy & feedstock efficiency 6%
Cogeneration & steam 2% Pocess innovation 1%
Industry 10%
Appliances 7.5%Water heat. cooking 1%
Space heating 3%
Lighting, misc. 3.5%Air conditioning 3%
Buildings 18%
Fuel economy in transport 17%
Transport 17%
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Energy Efficiency - A top PriorityImproved energy efficiency saves
about 15 Gt CO2 by 2050 - equivalent to 60% of current emissions
Improved efficiency halves expected growth in electricity demand and reduces the need for generation capacity by a third
Not a pricing issue, an issue of barriers and market inefficiencies
Trading systems usually do not helpINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
CO2 Emissions in Power Generation
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2003
Baseli
ne 20
50
ACT Map
ACT Low N
uclea
r
ACT Low R
enew
ables
ACT No C
CS
ACT Low E
fficien
cy
TECH Plus
Mt o
f CO
2
End-useEfficiency
Fossil fuelmix
Generationefficiency
Nuclear
Hydropower
Otherrenewables
Biomass
CCS
Baseline Emissions 2050
Savi
ngs
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Electricity Generation
Power plant efficiencies – autonomous trend
CCS – not yet ready, further cost reduction needed
Nuclear – not really a cost issueRenewables – cost matter, trading
systems are not sufficient (learning needed)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Manufacturing IndustryCarbon leakage: more global coverage may
helpETS does not capture industry complexity fully:
Commodity trade Life cycle effects/competition (e.g. plastic waste
incineration)Progress is not rewarded (revised permit
allocation): no incentive for technological change
Half of world industry emissions part of AP6 (benchmarking)
Sectoral approaches as alternative ?INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Specific Comments
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Linking ETSLinking is almost always technically possible, and
some difficulties might be overstated: Price cap issue: only countries in compliance can be sellers Market segmentation with caps may or may not occur Indexed vs. non-indexed targets: little difference (e.g.
Spain, Greece)
Linkage creates winners and losers and therefore acceptance problems
Linkage difficult for key countries outside Europe (Japan)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
CDM/JI and Technology Transfer
Technology transfer is more than installing foreign equipment
Interests of technology suppliers and governments differ
May work for non-CO2 (important reductions per project, low cost, limited economic relevance)
Less relevant for energy related CO2 (higher cost, high economic relevance)
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Thank You