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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Solar Power
Solar Power
Resource, technologies,
Resource, technologies,
drivers, barriers, policy
drivers, barriers, policy
Cédric Philibert, IEA
CUEN 3
rdAnnual Energy Conference,
Cambridge, 22 June, 2009
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
©©OECD/IEA
OECD/IEA --2008
2008
ENERGY
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Scenarios &
Strategies
Strategies
to 2050
to 2050
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
ENERGY
AGENCY
AGENCY
Total energy resources
The Earth receives each
hour from the Sun the
amount of energy we
consume in a year
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Ressource is huge, but dilute,
Ressource is huge, but dilute,
interm
ittent, unevenly distributed
interm
ittent, unevenly distributed
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Resource and technologies
Resource and technologies
�Solar heat
�Domestic hot water; Space heating and
cooling; Industrial process heat…
�Solar therm
al electricity
�Semi-arid and neighbouring areas
�Photovoltaics
�Not to mention heat pumps, biomass,
wind power, ocean thermal energy, waves,
solar updraft towers, etc.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global capacities and production
Global capacities and production
10
9.4
0.6
0.4
58
10
1.5
0.6
94
147
190
89
0
50
100
150
200
Solar Thermal
Heat
Wind Power
Geothermal
Power
Photovoltaic
Solar Thermal
Power
Ocean Tidal
Power
Tota
l C
apacit
y in O
perati
on [
GW
], [G
W] a
nd P
rodu
ced
el
thEnerg
y [
TW
h], [TW
h], 2007
el
th
heat
power
Total capacity in operation [GW] 2007
Produced Energy [TWh] 2007
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Solar therm
al technologies
Solar therm
al technologies
�40% of our energy use is for heat
�Passive solar architecture
�Active solar technologies
7,280
4,000
9,000
14,000
19,000
24,000
China
United
States
Turkey
Germany
Japan
Australia
Israel
Brazil
Austria
Greece
Tota
l Cap
acit
y [
MW
]th
72.618
evacuated tube
glazed
unglazed***
�Hot water
�Solar heating
�Industrial solar
process heat
�Solar cooking
�Solar cooling
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Solar architecture
Solar architecture
�An art as much as a
science; extends to the
environment
�State-of-the-art
materials (windows…)
�Reduce heating and/or
cooling loads by <75%
�No reliable statistics
�Hard to distinguish
from energy efficiency
improvements
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Active Solar Heating
Active Solar Heating
75% of the market is
in China, with
therm
osiphons and
evacuated tubes
Combisystems in Europe
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
PV: c
PV: current market trends
urrent market trends
�PV market growing extremely quickly: 1.5 GW in
2006, 2.5 GW in 2007, estimated 5.8 GW in 2008
�In 2005-06 market almost entirely pulled by Germ
any
and Japan (and US), plus Spain 2007-2008
�Market forecast for 2010 according to industry:
6 –14 GW/y.
�ETP assumptions -ACT: 6 GW/y; BLUE: 10GW/y
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Expected technology evolution
Expected technology evolution
Source: NEEDS (2006)
PV Technology Market Share
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Market Share
Novel Devices
Other Thin Film
s
Thin Film
s
Silicon Thin Film
s
Crystalline Si
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Will PV become affordable
Will PV become affordable……
�On-grid?
�Off-grid?
�PV already worth it in
remote areas for
telecom, lighting, water
pumping …
electricity
for development in rural
areas
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Distributed power & grid parity
Distributed power & grid parity
�Distributed power generation: where
most energy is consumed
�Is not decentralised (off-grid) generation
�Grid serves as storage…
�Roofs and façades: better incentives
�“Grid parity”
�when the cost of distributed generation
equals that of grid power for end-users
�By 2011-2020 in most EU countries?
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Concentrated Solar Power
Concentrated Solar Power
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
A proven technology
A proven technology
�354 MWe since 84-89
on Los Angeles grid
�Concentrating solar
power plants cheaper
than PV in sunny areas
�Fossil fuel back-up or
heat storage
guarantees power
�Newly-built plants and
on-going projects in
Spain and the US
�On-going projects in
Algeria, Egypt, the
Emirates, Iran, Israel,
Italy, Jordan, Mexico,
Morocco, South Africa
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
An important resource
An important resource
Source: Pharabod & Philibert 1991
Concentrated in countries with no Kyoto cap
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Costs as a function of DNI
Costs as a function of DNI
kWh
cost
€
DNI: kwh.m
-2
Solar heat
Photovoltaics
Concentrated solar power
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Drivers
Drivers
�Self-sustained markets
�Low cost of simple hot water systems in
China, Turkey
�Remote PV systems: telecom, villages
�Incentives for other uses
�e.g. REPS, FIP or FIT, regulations
�…
mostly due to concerns about
energy security and climate change
©OECD/IEA -2008
0
2 0
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4 0
00
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0
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an
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ith
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ng
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th
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ris
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Wo
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de
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nd
in
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Re
fere
nce
Sce
na
rio
: th
is i
s u
nsu
sta
ina
ble
!
Wo
rld
pri
ma
ry e
ne
rgy
de
ma
nd
in
tW
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d p
rim
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erg
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In support of the G8 Plan of Action
©OECD/IEA -2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
9946
26294
1718
7603
6512
1173
3
3255
5469
4490
5122
0
5000
1000
0
1500
0
2000
0
2500
0
3000
0
2003
2050
MtCO2
BaU E
BaU E--
related CO
related CO22
Emissions:
Emissions:
+ 130% by
+ 130% by
2050
2050
The Challenge
The Challenge
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
©OECD/IEA -2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
46.5%
Renewables
in the power
mix
The Blue scenario leads to global energy-related CO2emissions
divided by two by 2050 from current levels
The Solution
The Solution
Efficiency and low
Efficiency and low-- carbon
carbon
energy mix
energy mix
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Barriers and policies
Barriers and policies
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Barriers to solar therm
al
Barriers to solar therm
al
�Technical barriers
�Lack of trained professionnals
�Current limits for new uses (e.g. cooling)
�Economic barriers
�Output is high
when demand is low
(esp. solar heating)
�Institutional barriers
�e.g. split incentives
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Support to solar therm
al
Support to solar therm
al
�Support to research & development
�Support to market deployment
�Outreach and training
�Certification, guarantees, service contracts
�Subsidies and fiscal incentives
�Green and/or white certificates (Australia, France, Italy)
�CDM, carbon trading (offset programmes?)
�Procurement
�Reducing import tariffs
�Regulatory measures (e.g. Israel, Spain)
�Support to renewable heat (solar therm
al,
biomass, geotherm
y) lags behind support to
on-grid renewables and biofuels
©OECD/IEA -2009
�Comparative assessment of
effectiveness and
efficiencyof renewables
support policies in OECD
countries plus Brazil, Russia,
India, China, South Africa
(BRICS)
Global
Global Renewable
RenewableEnergy Markets and
Energy Markets and
Policies Programme
Policies Programme(GREMPP)
(GREMPP)
Chosen policy effectiveness indicator on a yearly basis:
Incremental RE generation in a given year
Remaining additional realisable potential (by 2020)
©OECD/IEA -2009
Additional realisable potential for
Additional realisable potential for
RES
RES-- E (to 2020)
E (to 2020) ––OECD + BRICS
OECD + BRICS
Additional realisable mid-term (up to 2020) potential for RES-Electricity by country
(OECD+BRICS) and technology –in absolute terms (TWh)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
USA
Canada
Mexico
Japan
Korea
Australia
New …
Iceland
Norway
Switzerland
Turkey
Russia
China
India
Brazil
South …
EU 27
Additional realisable RES-Electricity generation potential up to 2020
[TWh/year]Wind offsh
ore
Wind onsh
ore
Tidal &
wave energy
Solar therm
al e
lectricity
Photovolta
ics
Hydropower
Geotherm
al electricity
Biowaste
Solid Biomass
Biogas
Source: IEA & EEG, 2008
©OECD/IEA -2009
Effectiveness & Efficiency
Effectiveness & Efficiency
Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
18,00
Annualised renumeration in [US cent / kWh]
Effectiveness indicator 2004/2005
� X
� Y
©OECD/IEA -2009
Effectiveness & Efficiency
Effectiveness & Efficiency
Solar PV 2005 (OECD & BRICS)
Solar PV 2005 (OECD & BRICS)
Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008
LUX
DEU
JPN
CHE
NLD
AUS
AUT
USA
IND
ESP
CAN
ZAF
ITA
MEX
KOR
DNK
BEL
FIN
CHN
GBR
FRA
PRT
GRC
SWE
RUSNOR
BRA
CZE
HUN
IRL
ISL
NZL
POL
SVKTUR
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Effectiveness indicator 2004/2005
Annualised remuneration in [U
S cent / kWh]
�OECD -EU �
Other OECD �
BRIC
S
FIT
©OECD/IEA -2009
Recent Trends
Recent Trends
Policy Effectiveness Indicator
Policy Effectiveness Indicator
PV
PV
[Data Sources: IEA Deploying Renewables and Renewables Inform
ation, 2008 ]
©OECD/IEA -2009
1.Remove non-economic barriers to
improve m
arket functioning
2.Establish predictable
support framework -
to attract investments
3.Set up transitional incentives decreasing
over time–to foster and m
onitor
technological innovation and m
ove towards
market competitiveness
4.Ensure specific support in function of
technology maturity to exploit potential of
largeRET range
5.With increasing m
ass-scale RET penetration
impact on overall energy system
must
be taken into account
Continuity
Certainty
Key Principles for Effective
Key Principles for Effective
Renewable Energy Policies
Renewable Energy Policies
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Conclusion
Conclusion
�Solar energy should play a major role
�in mitigating climate change
�and ensuring energy security
�All three technologies necessary
�Policies often incomplete or missing
�Public & private R&D efforts insufficient
�Grids & interconnections to develop
�Economic stimuli welcome, but public
policies must be long term
efforts and
financial support decrease over time