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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Solar Power Solar Power Resource, technologies, Resource, technologies, drivers, barriers, policy drivers, barriers, policy Cédric Philibert, IEA CUEN 3 rd Annual Energy Conference, Cambridge, 22 June, 2009

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Page 1: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Solar Power

Solar Power

Resource, technologies,

Resource, technologies,

drivers, barriers, policy

drivers, barriers, policy

Cédric Philibert, IEA

CUEN 3

rdAnnual Energy Conference,

Cambridge, 22 June, 2009

Page 2: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

In support of the G8 Plan of Action

In support of the G8 Plan of Action

©©OECD/IEA

OECD/IEA --2008

2008

ENERGY

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Scenarios &

Strategies

Strategies

to 2050

to 2050

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 8

INTERNATIONAL

INTERNATIONAL

ENERGY

ENERGY

AGENCY

AGENCY

Total energy resources

The Earth receives each

hour from the Sun the

amount of energy we

consume in a year

Page 3: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Ressource is huge, but dilute,

Ressource is huge, but dilute,

interm

ittent, unevenly distributed

interm

ittent, unevenly distributed

Page 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Resource and technologies

Resource and technologies

�Solar heat

�Domestic hot water; Space heating and

cooling; Industrial process heat…

�Solar therm

al electricity

�Semi-arid and neighbouring areas

�Photovoltaics

�Not to mention heat pumps, biomass,

wind power, ocean thermal energy, waves,

solar updraft towers, etc.

Page 5: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Global capacities and production

Global capacities and production

10

9.4

0.6

0.4

58

10

1.5

0.6

94

147

190

89

0

50

100

150

200

Solar Thermal

Heat

Wind Power

Geothermal

Power

Photovoltaic

Solar Thermal

Power

Ocean Tidal

Power

Tota

l C

apacit

y in O

perati

on [

GW

], [G

W] a

nd P

rodu

ced

el

thEnerg

y [

TW

h], [TW

h], 2007

el

th

heat

power

Total capacity in operation [GW] 2007

Produced Energy [TWh] 2007

Page 6: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Solar therm

al technologies

Solar therm

al technologies

�40% of our energy use is for heat

�Passive solar architecture

�Active solar technologies

7,280

4,000

9,000

14,000

19,000

24,000

China

United

States

Turkey

Germany

Japan

Australia

Israel

Brazil

Austria

Greece

Tota

l Cap

acit

y [

MW

]th

72.618

evacuated tube

glazed

unglazed***

�Hot water

�Solar heating

�Industrial solar

process heat

�Solar cooking

�Solar cooling

Page 7: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Solar architecture

Solar architecture

�An art as much as a

science; extends to the

environment

�State-of-the-art

materials (windows…)

�Reduce heating and/or

cooling loads by <75%

�No reliable statistics

�Hard to distinguish

from energy efficiency

improvements

Page 8: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Active Solar Heating

Active Solar Heating

75% of the market is

in China, with

therm

osiphons and

evacuated tubes

Combisystems in Europe

Page 9: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

PV: c

PV: current market trends

urrent market trends

�PV market growing extremely quickly: 1.5 GW in

2006, 2.5 GW in 2007, estimated 5.8 GW in 2008

�In 2005-06 market almost entirely pulled by Germ

any

and Japan (and US), plus Spain 2007-2008

�Market forecast for 2010 according to industry:

6 –14 GW/y.

�ETP assumptions -ACT: 6 GW/y; BLUE: 10GW/y

Page 10: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Expected technology evolution

Expected technology evolution

Source: NEEDS (2006)

PV Technology Market Share

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Market Share

Novel Devices

Other Thin Film

s

Thin Film

s

Silicon Thin Film

s

Crystalline Si

Page 11: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Will PV become affordable

Will PV become affordable……

�On-grid?

�Off-grid?

�PV already worth it in

remote areas for

telecom, lighting, water

pumping …

electricity

for development in rural

areas

Page 12: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Distributed power & grid parity

Distributed power & grid parity

�Distributed power generation: where

most energy is consumed

�Is not decentralised (off-grid) generation

�Grid serves as storage…

�Roofs and façades: better incentives

�“Grid parity”

�when the cost of distributed generation

equals that of grid power for end-users

�By 2011-2020 in most EU countries?

Page 13: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Concentrated Solar Power

Concentrated Solar Power

Page 14: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

A proven technology

A proven technology

�354 MWe since 84-89

on Los Angeles grid

�Concentrating solar

power plants cheaper

than PV in sunny areas

�Fossil fuel back-up or

heat storage

guarantees power

�Newly-built plants and

on-going projects in

Spain and the US

�On-going projects in

Algeria, Egypt, the

Emirates, Iran, Israel,

Italy, Jordan, Mexico,

Morocco, South Africa

Page 15: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

An important resource

An important resource

Source: Pharabod & Philibert 1991

Concentrated in countries with no Kyoto cap

Page 16: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Costs as a function of DNI

Costs as a function of DNI

kWh

cost

DNI: kwh.m

-2

Solar heat

Photovoltaics

Concentrated solar power

Page 17: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Drivers

Drivers

�Self-sustained markets

�Low cost of simple hot water systems in

China, Turkey

�Remote PV systems: telecom, villages

�Incentives for other uses

�e.g. REPS, FIP or FIT, regulations

�…

mostly due to concerns about

energy security and climate change

Page 18: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

©OECD/IEA -2008

0

2 0

00

4 0

00

6 0

00

8 0

00

10

00

0

12

00

0

14

00

0

16

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0

18

00

0 19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

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20

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Mtoe

Oth

er

ren

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ab

les

Hy

dro

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ar

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ss

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rld

en

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y d

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d e

xp

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by

45

% b

etw

ee

n n

ow

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d 2

03

0 –

an

av

era

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f in

cre

ase

of

1.6

% p

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ith

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al

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Re

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nsu

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ne

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ain

ab

le!

Page 19: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

In support of the G8 Plan of Action

©OECD/IEA -2008

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

2 0 0 8

INTERNATIONAL

ENERGY

AGENCY

9946

26294

1718

7603

6512

1173

3

3255

5469

4490

5122

0

5000

1000

0

1500

0

2000

0

2500

0

3000

0

2003

2050

MtCO2

BaU E

BaU E--

related CO

related CO22

Emissions:

Emissions:

+ 130% by

+ 130% by

2050

2050

The Challenge

The Challenge

Page 20: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

In support of the G8 Plan of Action

©OECD/IEA -2008

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

2 0 0 8

INTERNATIONAL

ENERGY

AGENCY

46.5%

Renewables

in the power

mix

The Blue scenario leads to global energy-related CO2emissions

divided by two by 2050 from current levels

The Solution

The Solution

Efficiency and low

Efficiency and low-- carbon

carbon

energy mix

energy mix

Page 21: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Barriers and policies

Barriers and policies

Page 22: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Barriers to solar therm

al

Barriers to solar therm

al

�Technical barriers

�Lack of trained professionnals

�Current limits for new uses (e.g. cooling)

�Economic barriers

�Output is high

when demand is low

(esp. solar heating)

�Institutional barriers

�e.g. split incentives

Page 23: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Support to solar therm

al

Support to solar therm

al

�Support to research & development

�Support to market deployment

�Outreach and training

�Certification, guarantees, service contracts

�Subsidies and fiscal incentives

�Green and/or white certificates (Australia, France, Italy)

�CDM, carbon trading (offset programmes?)

�Procurement

�Reducing import tariffs

�Regulatory measures (e.g. Israel, Spain)

�Support to renewable heat (solar therm

al,

biomass, geotherm

y) lags behind support to

on-grid renewables and biofuels

Page 24: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

©OECD/IEA -2009

�Comparative assessment of

effectiveness and

efficiencyof renewables

support policies in OECD

countries plus Brazil, Russia,

India, China, South Africa

(BRICS)

Global

Global Renewable

RenewableEnergy Markets and

Energy Markets and

Policies Programme

Policies Programme(GREMPP)

(GREMPP)

Chosen policy effectiveness indicator on a yearly basis:

Incremental RE generation in a given year

Remaining additional realisable potential (by 2020)

Page 25: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

©OECD/IEA -2009

Additional realisable potential for

Additional realisable potential for

RES

RES-- E (to 2020)

E (to 2020) ––OECD + BRICS

OECD + BRICS

Additional realisable mid-term (up to 2020) potential for RES-Electricity by country

(OECD+BRICS) and technology –in absolute terms (TWh)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

USA

Canada

Mexico

Japan

Korea

Australia

New …

Iceland

Norway

Switzerland

Turkey

Russia

China

India

Brazil

South …

EU 27

Additional realisable RES-Electricity generation potential up to 2020

[TWh/year]Wind offsh

ore

Wind onsh

ore

Tidal &

wave energy

Solar therm

al e

lectricity

Photovolta

ics

Hydropower

Geotherm

al electricity

Biowaste

Solid Biomass

Biogas

Source: IEA & EEG, 2008

Page 26: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

©OECD/IEA -2009

Effectiveness & Efficiency

Effectiveness & Efficiency

Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

18,00

Annualised renumeration in [US cent / kWh]

Effectiveness indicator 2004/2005

� X

� Y

Page 27: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

©OECD/IEA -2009

Effectiveness & Efficiency

Effectiveness & Efficiency

Solar PV 2005 (OECD & BRICS)

Solar PV 2005 (OECD & BRICS)

Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008

LUX

DEU

JPN

CHE

NLD

AUS

AUT

USA

IND

ESP

CAN

ZAF

ITA

MEX

KOR

DNK

BEL

FIN

CHN

GBR

FRA

PRT

GRC

SWE

RUSNOR

BRA

CZE

HUN

IRL

ISL

NZL

POL

SVKTUR

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Effectiveness indicator 2004/2005

Annualised remuneration in [U

S cent / kWh]

�OECD -EU �

Other OECD �

BRIC

S

FIT

Page 28: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

©OECD/IEA -2009

Recent Trends

Recent Trends

Policy Effectiveness Indicator

Policy Effectiveness Indicator

PV

PV

[Data Sources: IEA Deploying Renewables and Renewables Inform

ation, 2008 ]

Page 29: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

©OECD/IEA -2009

1.Remove non-economic barriers to

improve m

arket functioning

2.Establish predictable

support framework -

to attract investments

3.Set up transitional incentives decreasing

over time–to foster and m

onitor

technological innovation and m

ove towards

market competitiveness

4.Ensure specific support in function of

technology maturity to exploit potential of

largeRET range

5.With increasing m

ass-scale RET penetration

impact on overall energy system

must

be taken into account

Continuity

Certainty

Key Principles for Effective

Key Principles for Effective

Renewable Energy Policies

Renewable Energy Policies

Page 30: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - CUEN · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Solar Power Resource, ... solar updraft towers, etc. ... Solar energy CUEN09.ppt

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Conclusion

Conclusion

�Solar energy should play a major role

�in mitigating climate change

�and ensuring energy security

�All three technologies necessary

�Policies often incomplete or missing

�Public & private R&D efforts insufficient

�Grids & interconnections to develop

�Economic stimuli welcome, but public

policies must be long term

efforts and

financial support decrease over time