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International Gas Union. Natural Gas Facts & Figures. March 2012. Navigation-tool for the “Natural Gas – Facts & Figures” slide-pack. Markets for Gas Power Generation Industry Chemical Feedstock Natural Gas Resources, Supply & Transport Reserves: Conventional & Unconventional - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Natural Gas Facts & Figures
March 2012
International Gas Union
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Navigation-tool for the “Natural Gas – Facts & Figures” slide-pack
1. Markets for Gas Power Generation Industry Chemical Feedstock
2. Natural Gas Resources, Supply & Transport Reserves: Conventional & Unconventional Gas Transport LNG
3. Environmental Impact Power generation from gas with / without Carbon Capture & Storage
(CCS) Efficient Partner for Wind (and other intermittent energy sources)
4. Prospects for Developments of Further Technological Options
Commercial Sector Residential Sector Transportation Sector
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Goals and Objectives
Highlight the value of natural gas to ensure
its fullest economic and environmental
contribution in low carbon energy systems
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Note:
The cost estimates in this package have been based on reliable, verifiable data.
However they may not concur with cost estimates in other publications.
This may be due to a variety of factors and assumptions, e.g.:•Prices of fossil fuels•CO2 prices•Location factors•Size of plants•Costs of steel•EPC costs•Discount factors•Lifetime of plants
All cost comparisons in this package should therefore be considered as indicative.
While capital costs of different options may vary considerably in absolute terms, in relative terms there is very little variance
(For reasons of consistency all cost data used in this package have been taken from the June 2010, Mott MacDonald (MMD) report for the UK DECC)
Cost estimates
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1
Markets for GasCost effective, Convenient and Efficient
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Growing Global Demand for Gas
Source: IEA, The Golden Age of Gas, 2011 (GAS scenario)
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Power Generation
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Embryonic Expansion Maturity Decline
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Electricity demandfluctuates from hour to hour
over a year
Jan Dec
Same demand ranked in descending order illustrated by a
“load duration curve”and corresponding supply
MID-LOADSUPPLY
BASE-LOAD SUPPLY
PEAK-LOADSUPPLY
Source: IGU/ Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP)
Meeting Electricity DemandEXPLANATORY NOTES
PEAK-LOAD, MID-LOAD and BASE-LOAD SUPPLY
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Gas-fired Power GenerationCCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine)
Modern combined cycle 1000 MW power plant (CCGT)
Diagram CCGT, a combination of a gas turbine and a steam turbine. Efficiency ~ 59 %.
Very efficient generation technology
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High efficiency (relative to other options)
Less thermal waste & less cooling needed
Compact equipment
Lower investment and operating costs than oil or coal plant
Shorter construction time and easier permitting process
Few environmental problems (relatively clean)
Less CO2 emission rights needed than for oil or coal
Suitable for meeting base-load and mid-load demand
Very efficient generation technology
Gas-fired Power GenerationCCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine)
Source: based on MMD, June 2010
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Source: MMD, June 2010
2
5
1
4
3
Capital costs of options may vary considerably in absolute terms, but very little in relative terms
Indicative, cost levels million $/MW
Gas-fired power generationLowest capital costs per MW installed
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Prices (at plant inlet)
Gas : 8 $/MMBtu
Coal: 80 $/t
Source: MMD, June 2010 Capital costs of options may vary considerably in absolute terms, but very little in relative terms
$/MWh
Based on: 7000 hrs operation for gas and coal per year
2500 hrs for onshore wind per year
3600 hrs for offshore wind per year
7800 hrs for nuclear per year
Competitive for meeting Base-load Demand
Gas: A competitive option for new generationLow All-in Unit Costs per kwh produced
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Prices (at plant inlet)Gas : 8 $/MMBtuCoal: 80 $/t
Source: MMD, June 2010
Capital costs of options may vary considerably in absolute terms, but very little in relative terms
$/MWh
Based on: 4300 hrs operation for gas and coal per year
Flexible and Competitive for meeting Mid-load Demand
* Costs do not take account of effect of interruptibility on the plant efficiency
Gas: A competitive option for new generationLow All-in Unit Costs per kwh produced
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Gas-fired Power: EfficientSmaller plant size reduces risk of overcapacity
Gas CCGT Coalsupercritical
Nuclear
450
600 -1000
1000 -1600
Source: MMD, June 2010
Minimum size to capture economies of scale (in MW)
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Gas-fired power: Efficient
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CCGT Coal Nuclear
Plus shortest time for permitting etc
years
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA 2010
Short construction time reduces risks of demand uncertainty.
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CHP: A very energy-efficient option
CHP: Combined Heat & Power. Also: "cogeneration“
Proven technology
To reduce thermal waste from power production and use the heat.
Higher efficiency than separate generation
Saves energy and emissions
Total efficiency ~80 %.
Can take biogas
Source: Energy Delta Institute
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Industry
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Gas: Convenient & Efficient Source of EnergyEconomic and Clean
Easy handling, lower installation and maintenance cost
Good controllability of processes and high efficiency
Direct heating or drying of products or materials
Clean and environment-friendly
Less CO2 emission rights needed (where applicable)
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Gas: Convenient and Efficient Source of Energy(examples)
Steam drums for paper manufacturing
Ceramic foam infrared heater (1150 oC)
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Gas: The Efficient Source of Energy(examples)
Infrared (IR) paint drying
Batch grain dryer
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Chemical Feedstock
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Ammonia converts: some 135 bcm/year
→ for production of fertilizer, fibers, etc
Methanol converts: 30 bcm/year
Gas conversion industry uses gas as an efficient and valuable source for
chemical conversion into other products which are sold worldwide
Industry chemical feedstock More than 165 bcm/year
Source: IGU/ Clingendael Institute (CIEP)
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From Natural Gas Source: Dutch State Mines (DSM)
Chemical feedstock Many high quality and high value applications
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Commercial Sector
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Gas: The Efficient Source of Energy Commercials
Offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centers and hotels…
Shops, restaurants, café's, …
Small businesses, workshops, garages …
• Easy handling once infrastructure is present
• Lower investment cost compared to other fuels
• High efficiency heating equipment available (incl. condensation)
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Gas: The Efficient Source of Energy(examples)
Green houses – use
Boiler house in green house.Gas use temperature dependent.
Assimilation illumination
+ Use of CO2 from exhaust gases as fertiliser
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Residential Sector
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Efficient and environmentally friendly fuel for heating, hot water and cooking
Residential
High efficiency heating system (hot water boiler) with storage vessel
High efficiency heating system
Clean and easy handling once infrastructure is present
Low installation cost vs. other fuels
High efficiency heating equipment available
High comfort factor
Individual heating systems in apartment blocks
29-
Micro CHP:
• Heat and power from one apparatus
• High efficiency system with generator
• Your own home power plant
Micro CHP: Commercial applications in various countries
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Residential Cogeneration System
貯湯槽GE
PEFC本体
追い焚き給湯 床暖房
風呂
エアコン 照明
TVシャワー
暖房乾燥
貯湯槽 Power
Unit
Grid Power
City Gas
BuckupHot Water Floor Heating
Bath
Air Conditioning Lighting
TVShower
Heating
Heat Recovery
Unit
Source: Courtesy Osaka Gas
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Transportation Sector
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Automotive Fuels: CNG and LNG
CNG : Compressed Natural GasGas stored in vehicle at high pressure (200 bar)
LNG : Liquefied Natural GasGas stored in liquefied form at atmospheric pressure (requires cryogenic tank and regasification equipment )Best in heavy vehicles and ships
Alternatives :Gasoline, diesel, LPG
Position gas :Clean, low on emissionsFeasibility depends on fiscal regimeBest in vehicles with limited travel radiusand many stop-starts
Reduces dependence on/import of oil
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LNG as automotive fuel for heavy vehicles
LNG is used in increasingly many places for road transport fleets: Buses, Dust Carts, Chilled Container Transporters – it gives good engine performance and a vehicle range comparable with other fuels
LNG is suitable to fuel high-consumption transport where space for the LNG storage is readily available: e.g. trains and sea ferries
LNG is less-suitable for small privately-owned vehicles because of more complex procedures and more expensive fuelling stations with special requirements regarding their location.
Heavy vehicles do not lend themselves to be run on electric power.
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US builds Interstate Clean Transportation Corridor
North America’s fuelling infrastructure has been built over the past 100 years, giving oil-based fuels an advantage over newer alternatives, like natural gas or hydrogen. Now, there is project to develop a new network of alternative fuel filling stations for long-haul trucking fleets in western United States.
The Interstate Clean Transportation Corridor (ICTC) proposes a network of LNG and CNG facilities connecting heavily trafficked interstate trucking routes between Utah, California, and Nevada. The aim is to promote the conversion of heavy-duty fleets from diesel to natural gas in order to cut down emissions, reduce oil dependence and save fuel costs.
CNG and LNG as automotive fuel for heavy vehicles (example)
Source: Interstate Clean Transportation Corridor
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LNG propelled ferry, Norway
LNG as fuel for ships
Application of LNG as bunker fuel is rising rapidly
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Examples
New VW Passat Estate TSI EcoFuel
model powered with turbocharged CNG
engine
1.4-liter TSI 110 kW (148 hp) emitting
119 – 124 g CO2 / 100 km
With average consumption of 4.4 – 5.2
kg / 100 km and 21 kg reservoir
possible range with one filling is around
450 km
Turbocharged CNG engines
CNG based road transporta growing business (examples)
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Source : NGV Journal 07/2011
CNG based road transporta growing business (examples)
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CNG based road transport
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Natural gas for road transport
Source: Gasunie ‘Natural gas, part of an efficient sutainable energy future, The Dutch case’, Feb 2010
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2
Natural Gas Resources, Supply & Transport
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Natural Gas reserves: plenty & more to come
Proven conventional reserves are growing
In addition:
Unconventional gas has come within technological & economic reach
Volume
Conventional
Unconventional
The total long-term recoverable conventional gas resource base is more than 400 tcm, another 400 tcm is estimated for unconventionals: only 66 tcm has already been produced. - IEA-Golden Age of Gas 2011-
Shale gas
Coal bed methane
Tight gas
42
Conventional Reserves:plenty and more to come
Global proven gas reserves have more than doubled since 1980, reaching 190 trillion cubic metres at the beginning of 2010
0
40
80
120
160
200
1980
1990
2000
2010
tc m EuropeLatin AmericaNorth AmericaAfricaAsia-Pacific
E. Europe/EurasiaMiddle East
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
Growing proven reserves
Tight Gas Shale GasCoalbed Methane
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Occurs in ‘tight’ sandstone
Low porosity = Little pore space between the rock grains
Low permeability = gas does not move easily through the rock
Natural gas trapped between layers of shale
Low porosity & ultra-low permeability
Production via triggered fractures
Natural gas in coal (organic material converted to methane)
Permeability low
Production via natural fractures (“cleats”) in coal
Recovery rates lowSource: Shell
Types of Unconventional Gas
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Source: James Baker Institute, Rice, 2010
Developments of shale production in the United Stateshave a major effect on the US market and will impact rest of the world
US shale production grows to about 45 % of total production by 2030
Growth of unconventional gas productionImpact on US supply
World gas resources by major region (tcm)significant unconventional prospects world-wide
45
Source: IEA Golden Age of Gas, 2011
Inventorization of unconventional gas is still at an early stage
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The prospects of unconventionals
Unconventional gas offers potential for more domestic production in many countries
Particularly for countries like China and Poland this could help to reduce dependence on coal
First exports of unconventional gas under developmentAustralia: First LNG export project based on Coalbed Methane (8.5 mt/a committed with potential to expand)
US: Various LNG export projects in planning stage due to successful development of shale gas
47
The prospects of shale gas
Shale gas is so far only produced in North America. Its true potential is still a matter of uncertainty.
Environmental concerns revolve around ground water contamination resulting from hydraulic fracturing. Governments, together with industry, are addressing new regulation for shale extraction to protect public health and environment.
Energy used for production and its CO2 emission is higher than for
conventional gas (see next slides).
Well-to-burner greenhouse emissionsshale gas vs conventional gas
Source: IEA Golden Age of Gas, 2011
Mt CO2-eq per bcm
Incremental for shale gas:
Flaring & venting
Production
All types of gas:
Production, flaring, venting & transport
Combustion
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Gas Transport
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Basis: equivalent of 50 million m3/day of natural gas (1 large pipeline 48” or 56”)
(diesel)
Source: Energy Delta Institute
Energy Transportationdaily equivalents
51
Natural Gas and Electricity Transmission
Lower losses and lower costs of large volume and/or long distance energy
transmission
More energy transportation capacity for different customers in different
segments of the energy consumption
Lower visual impact
Better and more economic storage options
Gas pipelines offer:
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
52
Natural Gas and Electricity Transmission
Gas pipelines offer more energy transportation capacity
Lower visual impact from transport of gas vs overhead electricity lines
For high volume energy transportation:
8 power transmission masts of 3 GW each are equal to 1 gas pipeline (48 inch)
Source: Gasunie
Lower costs of energy transmission
Natural Gas and Electricity Transmission
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
A specific advantage of gas transmission compared to electricity transmission is that
for gas in growth markets much larger economies of scale can be realised than for
power transmission and thus much lower costs per kwh. For electricity, a maximum
scale of 2-3 GW is technically achievable, after which multiple (parallel) lines are
required*. However, gas pipelines have a capacity between 10 and 25 GW.
Gas transportation for electricity generation can be combined with gas for other
consumers in other market segments, leading to substantial economic advantages.
* for very long distances (over 800 km) UHVDC lines can offer scale advantages up to 6-7 GW
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Overhead power transmission
Capital costs:
at least 2-3 x more expensive per unit of energy than gas pipelines sized for high
volume transmission
only in the case a gas pipeline is laid only to transmit gas for power generation, as may
be the case in an emerging market, the capital costs are of the same order of
magnitude
Underground power transmission
Capital costs: at least 10-15 x more expensive per unit of energy than gas pipeline sized for high volume transmission
Lower costs of energy transmission with economies of scale
Natural Gas and Electricity Transmission
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
54
Losses pipelines: 0.2-0.4% per 100 km
Losses (AC): 2-4% per 100 km
Losses (DC): 0.2-0.4% per 100 km plus 1% one-off conversion loss
Lower losses from energy transmission
Natural Gas and Electricity Transmission
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
55
Overhead electricity transmission(and underground gas pipeline)
Underground electricity transmission (and underground gas pipeline)
Example of large scale, long distance transmission
Indicative transmission costs of gas and electricity (ct€/kWh for 200 km) (24 GW or 48” pipeline over 200 km)
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
Load Factor = 5500 hrs
Natural Gas and Electricity Transmission
56
Input parameters for calculation of indicative costs of gas vs electricity transmission
Discount factor: 10%
Load factor of electricity/gas transport: 5500
Lifetime: 25 years
Energy losses AC transmission: 3% per 100 km
Energy losses DC transmission: 0,3% per 100 km + 1% loss during AC-DC-AC conversion
Energy losses gastransport: 0,3% per 100 km.
Capex gas pipeline 24 GW: 0,2 mln €/MW per 100 km
Investment costs of AC overhead transmission, AC underground cable and DC underground cable are based on Parsons Brinckerhoff "Electricity Transmission Costing Study“ (Jan 2012) for the case “Lo (3 GW)“ for 75 km.
Investment costs of DC overhead line based on ABB "The ABCs of HVDC Transmission Technology", Case 500kv
Investment costs of large scale gas pipeline (24 GW) is based on the average of building costs of existing pipelines (BBL, Blue stream, Green stream, Europiple II, Franpipe, Langeled, North stream)
Natural Gas and Electricity TransmissionEXPLANATORY NOTES
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
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The LNG market: Connecting regions
59
Source: IGU World LNG Report, June 2011 (PFC)
LNG Production Growing in all Global Regions
60
The LNG industry has a total of around 1 660 bcm of LNG available for sale from existing production over the
period 2009-2025 IEA WEO 2009
“Flexible” LNG makes the LNG industry very responsive to changing demands of the global market
LNG adds to the diversification of the supply sources
Growing Liquidity in the LNG Market “Flexible LNG”
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Source: IEA Golden Age of Gas, 2011
Considerable growth of LNG import capacity in all regions matches the flexibility of the LNG industry to supply
(production vs capacity of receiving terminals)
The LNG market: Very accessible
62
On-board regasification offers low cost and convenient option to supply gas to new and existing markets
LNG: More flexibility through new technology
63
LNG:More flexibility through new technology
Source: Skaugen
Gas source
Small scale LNGoffers opportunities to produce otherwise stranded gas and reduce gas flaring
64
Overland transport of LNG: By road trucks and railcars
LNG is transported by road truck in many countries
Trucked LNG has many small-scale uses:
Domestic and commercial piped gas supply from satellite re-gasification terminals located in places remote from pipelines
Small industrial users (electric power, engine tests, glass, paper)
Commercial users (trains, buses, ferries, institutions)
Supply to peak-shaving plants
Supply to pipeline network during repairs or maintenance
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Costs of Production and Supply
66
Indicative Cost Curve
Source: IEA WEO 2009
Long-term gas production cost curve
Note: 5 $/MMBtu compares to less than 30 $/bbl
per
$
1$
Indicative supply cost
* Delivered
*
67
3
Environmental Impact (examples are focussed on power generation)
68
Natural Gas with or w/o CCS: Cleanest fossil fuel for power generation
1
0,75
0,5
0,25
0
GHG Emissions
Metric Tons CO2 per MWH
Wind (0)NuclearSolar ”Clean”
Natural Gas* (0.04)
”Clean”Coal*(0.09)
Oil (0.80) Coal (0.85)
Natural Gas (0.35)
* With CCS
Source: IGU based on CERA
69
Natural Gas fired generation: Smallest ecological footprint for power generation
Natural Gas
Wind
Solar
10
10,000
40,000
Land use in acres to have 1,000 MW of capacity
Source: based on data from Union Gas Ltd.
Acres
70
Source: US Department of Energy (DOE), US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
350 (100%)
850 (230%)
1,200(340%)Lignite-fired power
Hard coal-fired power
Gas-fired CCGT
Emission of CO2 (in kg CO2/MWh)
Gas: Cleanest Fossil FuelLowest emission of CO2
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Gas: The Cleanest Fossil FuelAlso lower on SOX and NOX
Global warming effect of NOX is considerably higher than that of CO2
(up to 300 times for 100 years (source ICBE))
Kg/MWh
Source: US Department of Energy (DOE): National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) 2010
00
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
Gas CCGT CoalSupercritical
SOx NOx
Mercury emission from coal: 4.3 10 kg/MWh-6
Particulate emissions from heating systems
554
306
6,1
0,11
Hard coal**
Lignite*
Heating oil
Natural gas
mg/kWh
* Emissions based on use of briquettes and lignite from the Rhineland-area in Germany
** Emissions based on use of briquettes
LUWB Landesanstalt für Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Württemberg; Average emission factors for small and medium combustion installations without exhaust gas after treatment. Status: 2006, BGW; Source: www.asue.de
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Replacing coal with gas for electricity generation
• Over 40% of global CO2 emissions comes from Power Generation
• Over 70% comes from coal-fired Generation
Karstad IGU
A near-term initiative to displace coal generation with additional generation from existing natural gas combined cycle capacity could result in reductions in power sector CO2 emissions on the order of 10%.
MIT, 2010, on the US market
Cheapest & fastest way to meet CO2 reduction targets
The next decade is critical. If emissions do not peak by around 2020 and decline steadily thereafter, achieving the needed 50% reduction by 2050 will become much more costly. In fact, the opportunity may be lost completely.
Attempting to regain a 50% reduction path at a later point in time would require much greater CO2 reductions, entailing much more drastic action on a shorter time scale and significantly higher costs than may be politically acceptable.
IEA, ETP 2010
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Power generation:CCS for gas and coal
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CCSEXPANATORY NOTES
CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage
Process of carbon sequestration from fossil fuels, based on existing technology.
CCS currently regarded as economic at CO2-emission “tax” levels well above 50 $/tonne.
This section discusses only so-called post combustion carbon-sequestration.
For the analysis a distinction is made between the CO2 capture and transportation / storage of CO2.
To date no commercial application of CCS exists, neither for coal- nor for gas-fired generation
76
Lower CO2 emission after CCS
Source: MMD, June 2010
Residual CO2 emission in kg CO2/MWh
35
85Hard coal-fired power
Gas-fired CCGT
Estimate: 90 % capture of CO2 emission
77
Gas: CCS – EfficientLow Cost of Carbon Capture
Low Incremental Capital Costs ($/kw)
and Low Incremental Unit Costs per kwh
($/MWh)
Source: MMD, June 2010
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CCS for Gas vs CoalLess CO2 to be captured, transported and stored
Compared with CCS for Coal:
Per kwh of electricity produced45% less CO2 to be transported
45% less CO2 to be stored
CO2 captured in kg per Mwh of electricity produced (based on 90% CO2 removal)
Resulting in
Lower costs of CO2 transportation
Lower call on (scarce) CO2 storage capacity
Source: MMD, June 2010
79
Gas with CCS: Low all-in unit costsBaseload: 7000 hrs of operation CO2 “tax”: 80$/t
Prices (at plant inlet)Gas : 8 $/MMBtuCoal: 80$/t
Capital costs may vary considerably in absolute terms, but very little in relative terms
$/MWh
Note: CCS reduces plant efficiency
Source: MMD, June 2010
80
Gas with CCS: Low all-in unit costsMidload: 4300 hrs of operation CO2 “tax”: 80$/t
Prices (at plant inlet)Gas : 8$/MMBtuCoal: 80$/t
Capital costs may vary considerably in absolute terms, but very little in relative terms
$/MWh
Note: CCS reduces plant efficiency
* Costs do not take account of effect of interruptibility on plant efficiency
Source: MMD, June 2010
81
Power generation:Gas and Wind
82
DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY CAN BE MET FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE BASED ON A SO-CALLED “MERIT ORDER”:
1. Renewable energy
• Hydro
• Wind
• Solar
• Biomass*
2. Nuclear power plants
3. Coal-fired power
4. Gas-fired power
For installed power plants the order in which these sources called upon to meet the demand is based on variable cost of production, leading generally to the following ranking preferences.
* Not necessarily the lowest variable cost option but often favoured for its low CO2 contribution
Meeting Electricity Demand – Merit order basedEXPLANATORY NOTES
When You Need Electricity You Can’t Flick a Switch and Turn on the Sun and Wind
• Variability creates complex grid balancing and
supply security issues
• Gas-fired generation can play a key role in
maintaining grid stability and supply security
83
84
Wind power is a growing part of the generation mix. It is attractive because it is renewable and does not emit CO2.
However, the contribution of wind power can vary significantly.
Example: Poyry 2011 estimates over a 4 months period
solaronshoreoffshore
This overview deals with the consequences of extended absences of wind power (more than 4 hours) for which combined cycle gas-fired power generation is a suitable partner
Meeting Electricity Demand – Wind PowerEXPLANATORY NOTES
Source: CIEP/ Poyry 2011 estimates
85
The Impact of Variability can be Significant
Source: National Review Online: Bryce, August 2011
conventional sources (gas) are needed to supply (with extra flexibility)
EXAMPLE OF CONTRIBUTION OF VARIABLE WIND POWER TO ACTUAL DEMAND (LOAD) DURING HIGH PRESSURE WEATHER IN TEXAS
Demand (=Load) vs actual Wind Output
DEMAND
WIND SUPPLY
86
The main purpose of wind power is to reduce power supply from fossil fuel and thus
reduce CO2 emission
An effective CO2 reduction will be achieved if coal-based electricity is displaced by
wind power
However, in energy systems with both gas- and coal-based generation, more gas-
based electricity is generally displaced than coal, as long as the variable costs of gas-
fired generation are higher than those of coal (see also example Spanish Market).
This significantly reduces the effectiveness of CO2 reduction from wind:1 MWh of wind power replacing gas-fired power leads to a reduction of 350 kg CO21 MWh of wind power replacing coal-fired power leads to a reduction of 850 kg CO2
Once CO2 emissions are priced/taxed or other performance measures are introduced
this order could be reversed
Installed wind power displaces fossil sources of power supply, but will it be gas or coal?
Meeting Electricity Demand – Wind PowerEXPLANATORY NOTES
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
87
Natural Gas complementing electricity supply from Wind
EXAMPLE OF IMPACT OF VARIABLE WIND POWER ON SUPPLY FROM GAS- AND COAL-FIRED GENERATION
(Spanish electricity market)
Source: REE, Heren, 2010
In MWh
88
Installed wind power capacity needs backup from other power supply sources to
maintain the required level of security of supply at times of reduced wind supplyHigh and low pressure zones can extend over vast geographical areas so that generally there can be little compensation from wind power elsewhere in a region. Dependent on regions, interconnections and availability of renewable alternatives , in most areas between 80 and 95% back-up from conventional sources will be required.
Other CO2-free back-up options are not generally available on a sufficient scale to
complement a growing share of variable wind energy
Wind power capacity always needs backup from other sources
Meeting Electricity DemandThe Wind and Gas-fired Power Partnership
Gas-fired generation is a flexible and reliable partner for wind at the lowest incremental CO2 emission (and at the lowest incremental costs)
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
Power supply is often expressed in running “hours”, as a fraction of total
design capacity.
In following examples onshore wind supply accounts for 2,500 hrs in any
year.
In the same examples average market demand is approx. 5,500 hrs.
Residual demand, to be supplied from gas-fired capacity thus becomes
3,000 hrs.
Meeting Electricity Demand EXPLANATORY NOTES
89
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP), 2012
Source: Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) based on MMD
Based on 2,500 hrs of onshore wind and 3,000 hrs of complementary supply from gas or coal
CO2 Emissions in kg/Mwh
without CCS with CCS
The example illustrates that wind combined with gas reduces CO2 emission.Wind combined with coal back-up produces more CO2 than a gas plant on its own
Gas: A suitable option for complementing windLow emission per kwh produced from wind and gas combined
90
Prices (at plant inlet)Gas : 8 $/MMBtuCoal: 80 $/t
Source: MMD, June 2010
Capital costs of options may vary considerably in absolute terms, but very little in relative terms
$/MWh
The combination of wind and gas or coalrepresents 2,500 hrs of onshore wind and
3,000 hrs of complementary supply from gas and coal
All costs are based on 5,500 hrs of power supply*
* Costs do not take account of effect of interruptibility on the plant efficiency
Gas: A suitable option for complementing windAlso lower all-in Unit Costs per kwh produced
91
92
4
Prospects for Developments of Further Technological Options
Market readiness Innovation
Condensing boiler technology & Solar
Fuel cells
Future technology
Micro-CHP
Green gas
Gas heat pump
More efficiency and climate protection
Potential for future developmentsInnovative steps for more climate protection
Source: based on E.ON Ruhrgas
93
94
Source: Senternovem
Green Gas
95
Fuel cells
1. Produce H2 using electricity from solar cells or other renewables or from natural gas in a reformer
2. Fuel cell :2 H2 + O2 2 H2O + electricity + heat
96
Fuel cells – Some characteristics
Silent, low maintenance
High electrical efficiency ; total efficiency 80 to 90 %
No CO2 emissions (with likely exception for production of H2 from natural gas)
Fuel cells have stationary applications (buildings, plants, telecommuni-cations) and transportation uses (cars, buses, trucks and machinery)
Today still high cost per installed kW
97
Terminology (1)
ACbbl
bcmBTUCBM
CCGT
CCS
CHP
CNG
Coal supercriticalCO2
DCEPC
GHG
LFLNGFlexible LNGLoad duration curve
Alternating CurrentBarrelBillion (109) cubic meter British Thermal UnitCoal Bed MethaneCombined Cycle Gas Turbine, the current efficient type of gas-fired power generationCarbon Capture and StorageCombined Heat & PowerCompressed Natural GasMost efficient process of coal fired power generationCarbon dioxideDirect CurrentEngineering, Procurement and ConstructionGreen House GasLoad FactorLiquefied Natural GasLNG supply potential, not committed to a single market under a long term contractA demand load curve but the demand data is ordered in descending order of magnitude, rather than chronologically
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Terminology (2)
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Mega Watt hour
Nitrogen Oxide
Overhead transmission
Processes of dealing efficiently with peak demand of electricity or gas
Generally a broad indication of the potential availability of gas reserves
Volume of oil or gas that has been discovered and for which there is a
90% probability that it can be extracted profitably on the basis of
prevailing assumptions about cost, geology, technology, marketability
and future prices*
Proven reserves plus volumes that are thought to exist in
accumulations that have been discovered and have a 50% probability
that they can be produced profitably*
Sulphur Oxide
Trillion (1012) cubic meter
Tera Watt hour
Ultra High Voltage Direct Current
* IEA WEO 2010
LPG
MWh
NOX
OHT
Peak shaving
Natural Gas Resources
Reserves, proven
Reserves, proven & probable
SOX
tcm
TWh
UHVDC