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FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN VOLUME 40 March 1954 NUMBER 3 INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS The rebuilding of foreign gold and dollar reserves to more adequate levels continued in 1953, especially in Continental Western Europe and the Sterling Area. Foreign hold- ings of gold and dollars, after a substantial growth in the last nine months of 1952, in- creased 2.6 billion dollars in 1953 to a record total of 23 billion. Practically all of the additions in 1953 went to Continental West- ern Europe and the Sterling Area. The up- ward movement in reserves has continued in 1954. The increase in foreign monetary reserves in 1953 reflected the recent tendency toward balance in the current account position of the United States (excluding military sup- plies and services granted to foreign coun- tries) and a continued—though reduced— net flow of private capital and United States Government loans and grants to the rest of the world. Nearly half the 1953 increase in foreign monetary reserves took the form of gold purchases from the United States. Foreign countries also acquired more than 400 mil- lion dollars of gold from new production and other sources. Foreign dollar holdings rose almost 1 billion dollars, about half of which was invested in United States Gov- ernment securities. The current contraction in the United States economy finds foreign countries in a more comfortable position than in past years with respect to both the balance of payments FOREIGN GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGS Billions of dollars U. S. GOVT. SECURITIES, ETC. DEPOSITS GOLD RESERVES 20 10 1928 1938 1945 1948 1952 1953 NOTE.—Year-end data. Gold reserves valued at $20.67 per fine ounce in 1928 and at $35 thereafter. Gold reserves of the U.S.S.R. are excluded. Top section of bar includes a substan- tial amount of short-term private paper in 1928 and small amounts in other years. and the level of monetary reserves. The question of adequacy of foreign monetary reserves takes on increased interest as the approach to over-all balance in international payments permits relaxation of direct re- strictions on trade and payments among nations. FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES Net transfers of gold and dollars from the United States to foreign countries and inter- national institutions reflect the United States balance of payments with the rest of the world in goods, services, gifts, and capital transactions. Such net transfers rose from about 1 billion dollars in 1952 to 2.2 billion MARCH 1954 237 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis March 1954

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Page 1: International Gold and Dollar Movements · A net inflow of United States private short-term capital, in contrast to the net outflow of most previous years, reflected payments by Brazil

FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETINVOLUME 40 March 1954 NUMBER 3

INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTSThe rebuilding of foreign gold and dollar

reserves to more adequate levels continuedin 1953, especially in Continental WesternEurope and the Sterling Area. Foreign hold-ings of gold and dollars, after a substantialgrowth in the last nine months of 1952, in-creased 2.6 billion dollars in 1953 to a recordtotal of 23 billion. Practically all of theadditions in 1953 went to Continental West-ern Europe and the Sterling Area. The up-ward movement in reserves has continuedin 1954.

The increase in foreign monetary reservesin 1953 reflected the recent tendency towardbalance in the current account position ofthe United States (excluding military sup-plies and services granted to foreign coun-tries) and a continued—though reduced—net flow of private capital and United StatesGovernment loans and grants to the restof the world.

Nearly half the 1953 increase in foreignmonetary reserves took the form of goldpurchases from the United States. Foreigncountries also acquired more than 400 mil-lion dollars of gold from new productionand other sources. Foreign dollar holdingsrose almost 1 billion dollars, about half ofwhich was invested in United States Gov-ernment securities.

The current contraction in the UnitedStates economy finds foreign countries in amore comfortable position than in past yearswith respect to both the balance of payments

FOREIGN GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGSBi l l i ons of d o l l a r s

U. S. G O V T .SECURITIES, ETC.

DEPOSITS

GOLDRESERVES

2 0

10

1928 1938 1945 1948 1952 1953

NOTE.—Year-end data. Gold reserves valued at $20.67 perfine ounce in 1928 and at $35 thereafter. Gold reserves of theU.S.S.R. are excluded. Top section of bar includes a substan-tial amount of short-term private paper in 1928 and smallamounts in other years.

and the level of monetary reserves. Thequestion of adequacy of foreign monetaryreserves takes on increased interest as theapproach to over-all balance in internationalpayments permits relaxation of direct re-strictions on trade and payments amongnations.

FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS WITH THE

UNITED STATES

Net transfers of gold and dollars from theUnited States to foreign countries and inter-national institutions reflect the United Statesbalance of payments with the rest of theworld in goods, services, gifts, and capitaltransactions. Such net transfers rose fromabout 1 billion dollars in 1952 to 2.2 billion

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INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS

in 1953. The United States balance on cur-rent account—which covers all transactionsin goods and services, including Governmentpurchases of goods and services for useabroad, and also private remittances, but ex-cludes military supplies and services fur-nished under Government aid—changedfrom a surplus of 1.8 billion dollars in 1952to a small deficit in 1953. This change wassufficient to offset declines in the net outflowof private capital and in disbursements ofGovernment nonmilitary grants and loans,and also to permit a substantial increase ingold and dollar transfers to foreign countries.

Payments to foreign countries on accountof United States Government economicgrants and loans declined about 400 milliondollars from 1952 to 1953, resulting pri-marily from smaller appropriations for Eu-ropean aid under the Mutual Security Pro-gram.

The net outflow of United States privatecapital declined about 700 million dollarsin 1953, reflecting special factors in themovements of both long- and short-termprivate funds. In the second and third quar-ters of the year, when bond prices in thiscountry were below earlier levels, there werelarge repurchases, particularly by Canadians,of outstanding long-term foreign securitiesin the United States market. Largely as aresult of these transactions, the net outflowof United States portfolio capital was re-versed, the net inflow for 1953 amountingto about 180 million dollars. The flow ofdirect investment abroad—the major ele-ment in United States long-term private cap-ital movements—declined moderately duringthe year.

A net inflow of United States private short-term capital, in contrast to the net outflowof most previous years, reflected paymentsby Brazil on an accumulation of claims held

by American banks and exporters. Brazildrew on an Export-Import Bank loan forthis purpose. Short-term credits to otherforeign countries rose somewhat.

UNITED STATES BALANCE OF PAYMENTSSELECTED COMPONENTSBillions of dollars

U. S. GOVT.GRANTS and LOANS

OUTFLOW of U.S. PRIVATE CAPITAL

NET TRANSFERS of GOLD and DOLLARSto FOREIGN COUNTRIES

1.0

1.0

- .5

1952 1953

NOTE.—Quarterly data; figures for fourth quarter of 1953are preliminary. Net transfers of gold and dollars, computedby Federal Reserve, include net foreign purchases of gold fromUnited States plus net increase in foreign dollar holdings.Other data are derived from U. S. Department of Commercestatistics. Balance on current account represents the balanceof goods, services, and unilateral transfers other than Govern-ment grants; exports of grant-financed military supplies andservices are excluded. Outflow of U. S. private capital and U. S.Government nonmilitary grants and loans are on a net basis.

The change in 1953 in the current accountbalance of the United States with foreigncountries reflected a level of United Statesmerchandise exports (excluding those cov-ered by military aid) about 1 billion dol-lars below the 1952 total. After decliningin the course of 1952, exports in 1953 weremaintained at about the same level as in thethird and fourth quarters of 1952. Mer-chandise imports rose to a peak in the springof 1953, but for the year as a whole were onlyslightly larger than in the preceding year.

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INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS

United States purchases abroad of goodsand services for use abroad, including pay-ments for the maintenance of United Statesmilitary installations and troops and for off-shore procurement of military equipmentfor the use of foreign countries, were animportant factor enabling foreign countriesto show a current account surplus with thiscountry. These payments amounted to 2.6billion dollars in 1953 compared with 1.9billion in 1952.

Exports and offshore transfers of militarysupplies and services under United StatesGovernment grants, which increased about1.7 billion dollars to 4.3 billion in 1953, areexcluded from the calculation of the balanceon current account. These grant-aid militarysupplies, while providing net additions toforeign military strength, have for the mostpart not altered the supply of or demand forgoods and services in commercial trade.

COMPOSITION OF GOLD

AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS

Changes in total foreign and internationalgold and dollar holdings reflect the balanceof payments of the United States and the ad-dition of newly produced gold to foreignmonetary reserves. When total paymentsfrom the United States are in excess of re-ceipts, foreign countries may use their netdollar receipts to purchase gold from theUnited States or to add to their assets in theUnited States. To the extent that such assetsinclude bank deposits or securities with ma-turities up to 20 months at the time of pur-chase, they are included in the concept ofdollar holdings as used in this article.

United States gold sales. Foreign coun-tries purchased about 1.2 billion dollars ofgold from the United States during 1953.About half the purchases were made in thefirst quarter, as shown in the table. Since

United States domestic production and in-dustrial consumption of gold were in nearbalance during 1953, the monetary gold

N E T FOREIGN PURCHASES OF GOLD FROM THE UNITED STATES

19531

[In millions of dollars]

Area and country-

Continental Western Europe:Belgium and Belgian CongoDenmarkGermany (Federal Republic of).NetherlandsPortugal .SwedenSwitzerlandOther Continental Western

Europe . .Bank for International Settle-

ments

Total

United Kingdom

Latin America:ArgentinaMexico.. . .UruguayOther Latin America

Total

Asia and all other

Grand total

Jan.-Mar.

36133025151020

8

23

181

320

5528104

97

1

599

Apr.-June

3

10

' 15'

25

9

62

40

20

5

25

1

128

July-Sept.

12

4040151015

43

175

120

10

(2)

10

1

307

Oct-Dec.

43

50

' 15'

5

—4

19

128

(2)

(2)

2

130

Year

9513

13065602065

4

94

546

480

8528154

132

6

1,164

1 Minus sign indicates sale to the United States.2 Purchase of less than $500,000.NOTE.—Details may not add to totals because of rounding.

stock of the United States declined about1.2 billion during the year as a result of itssales. At the year-end this country had agold stock of 22.1 billion dollars. This was60 per cent of world gold reserves, the samerelative share as at the end of 1945. Thecorresponding ratios in the predepressionyear of 1928 and the prewar year of 1938were 38 and 56 per cent. All gold figuresin this article exclude the U.S.S.R.

Other gold transactions. Since the totalgold reserves of foreign countries and inter-national institutions rose by 1,590 milliondollars in 1953 and net foreign purchases ofgold from the United States accounted for1,164 million, about 425 million of the totalwas acquired from new foreign productionor other sources. There were reports of sales

MARCH 1954 239

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INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS

ESTIMATED CHANGES IN FOREIGN AND INTERNATIONAL GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGS DURING 1953

[In millions of dollars]

Area and country

Continental Western Europe:AustriaBelgium-Luxembourg (and Bel-

gian Conco)France (and dependencies)Germany (Federal Republic of).ItalyNetherlands (and Netherlands

West Indies and Sur inam). . .Portugal( and dependencies)...SwedenSwitzerlandOther *

Total

Sterling area:United KingdomU. K. dependenciesUnion of South AfricaOther.

Total

Canada .

Latin America:ArgentinaBrazilCubaMexicoUruguayVenezuelaOther

Total

Asia:IndonesiaJapanPhilippine RepublicOther

Total

All other:Eastern Europe 4

Other

Total

Total foreign count r ies .

Internationals . . . .

Grand total

Holdings atend of 1952

Goldre-

serves

52

7881593

140346

568307184

1,411872

5,261

3 1,500

170465

2,135

896

288317214144207373274

1,817

235128

9384

756

290178

468

1 1 , 3 3 3

1,692

13,025

Dollarhold-ings

91

247374551309

2476791

642488

3,107

81811324

193

U48

1,596

13973

301231

94146668

1,552

61808315427

1,611

17105

122

9,136

1,595

10,731

Increase or decrease (—), 1953

Jan.-Mar.

Goldre-

serves

2

44

6120107

55

199

375

4

379

15

55

' —is3510

8

90

- 2 71

2

- 2 4

659

1

660

Dollarhold-ings

11

15—83

35

29-3-2-919

8

-6619

19

-37

-72

33

SO-17

-2—29

90

78

6891050

165

132

-39

93

Apr.-June

Goldre-

serves

- 5

- 6

26

1019

- 123

- 3 4

32

100

1

101

33

20

""J-Y5

18

i'' " - 3

- 2

182

5

187

Dollarhold-ings

17

-242979

373

-31782

299

159—6

26

184

-230

145852

-47-3403

117

-29—5

-18-31

-83

—17

6

293

18

311

July-Sept.

Goldre-

serves

273

49

108151315

- 5

225

175

175

26

10

- 1 7

""12

5

- 4 5

i'- 4 1

390

2

392

Dollarhold-ings

42

1075

111U

-399

171478

371

-1022

—10

-16

28

-9SO

8S

41-41

32

-S40

IS

62

8—9

—1

466

-61

405

Oct.-Dec.p

Goldre-

serves

63

67

1425123

12

196

15(5

1

151

26

4- 1 0

35

- 9

- 7

-18

i'- 1 7

349

2

351

Dollarhold-ings

so-46

4810581

207

U1093

362

-192—3—122

-174

98

-17-62-46

132124

-10

-77

-104-14

16

-98

-81

—7

104

127

231

Year?

Goldre-

serves

- 5

863

186

19379344828

652

800

6

806

100

854

- 2 81420

11

106

- 9 02

4 '

- 8 4

1 ,580

10

1,590

Dollarhold-ings

100

-2382

348140

47162632

272

1,040

-109—5U67

-43

-176

-92944

-48167642

150

—2220

-2048

26

—1-1

-2

995

45

1,040

Holdings atend of 1 9 5 3 P

Goldre-

serves

47

8741596

326346

761386218

1,459900

5,913

3 2,300

176465

2,941

996

373321186158227373285

1,923

145130

9388

672

290178

468

12,913

1,702

14,615

Dollarhold-ings

191

224456899449

29483

117674760

4,147

70910838

250

1,105

1,4*0

ISO10%345183110222610

1,702

39828295475

1,637

16104

120

10,131

1,640

11,771

P Preliminary.1 Represents gold reserves of Bank of France and French dependencies only.2Includes holdings of other Continental OEEC countries, Finland, Spain, Yugoslavia, Bank for International Settlements (both for

Its own and European Payments Union account), gold to be distributed by the Tripartite Commission for Restitution of Monetary Gold,and unpublished gold reserves of certain Western European countries.

3 Estimated gold holdings of British Exchange Equalization Account, based on holdings of gold, U. S. and Canadian dollars as re-ported by British Government.

* Excludes gold reserves of, but includes dollar balances held by, the U.S.S.R."Includes holdings of International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, and United Nations

and other international organizations. Excludes holdings of Bank for International Settlements, which are included under "ContinentalWestern Europe."

NOTE.—Includes reported and estimated gold reserves of central banks, governments, and international institutions, and officialand private dollar holdings reported by banks in the United States. Dollar holdings include principally deposits and U. S. Governmentsecurities (Treasury bills, certificates of indebtedness, and notes and bonds reported as purchased within 20 months of maturity). Thetotal referred to most frequently in the text is that for "total foreign countries," shown in bold-face type. International institutionsare shown separately for the purpose of providing more complete coverage of the movement of gold and dollar holdings.

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INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS

of gold by the U.S.S.R. to the United King-dom and other European countries in thelatter part of the year. It would appear thatsomewhat less than 350 million dollars ofgold from new production was added to thegold reserves of foreign countries last year.

Total foreign gold production amountedto an estimated 795 million dollars for theyear. If the addition to reserves from newlymined gold was less than 350 million, some-thing more than 450 million dollars of goldwent into industrial uses, private holdings, orwas otherwise not accounted for. This non-monetary residual was slightly less than in1952 and substantially less than in 1951. Inthe fourth quarter of 1953 there was appar-ently a significant further reduction in theflow of gold to nonmonetary uses.

The price of gold on the various free mar-kets of the world continued to decline during1953 and in terms of dollars is now veryclose to the United States official gold priceof $35 per fine ounce. For example, theprice in Zurich, Switzerland, which was ashigh as $44 per fine ounce in the early partof 1951, fell to $37.25 in December 1952 and$35.25 at the end of 1953.

Changes in dollar holdings. Foreign dol-lar holdings—official reserves of foreign cen-tral banks and governments plus dollar hold-ings on private foreign account as reportedby banks in the United States—rose 995 mil-lion dollars during 1953. Practically all ofthis increase was in official holdings.

Foreign monetary authorities continued toinvest an increasing proportion of their addi-tional dollar holdings in securities in 1953.Net foreign purchases, official and private,of United States Government securitiesamounted to 542 million dollars, and net pur-chases of other short-term assets, mainlybankers' acceptances, were 147 million. For-eign deposits at commercial banks rose 434

million dollars while those at Federal Re-serve Banks declined 127 million during theyear.

Impact on commercial ban\ reserves. Thenet movement of funds between the UnitedStates and foreign countries had a moder-ately restraining effect on commercial bankreserves in the United States during the earlypart of 1953. As measured by the differ-ence between the gold outflow and the partlyoffsetting decline in foreign deposits at Fed-eral Reserve Banks, the drain on commercialbank reserves due to foreign factors wasaround 1 billion dollars for the year. Thedrain was heaviest—about 600 million dollars—in the first quarter.

Federal Reserve operations to adjust thesupply of bank reserves to the needs of theeconomy took into consideration the effect ofthese foreign transactions. During the earlymonths of the year, when there was a sea-sonal decline in reserve needs and the FederalReserve was following a policy of restraint,the decline in reserves due to foreign goldand dollar movements was permitted tooccur. During the remainder of the yearthe effect of foreign factors was more thanoffset by Federal Reserve measures to supplyadditional bank reserves needed to meet sea-sonal credit and currency growth and to easebank reserve positions.

REGIONAL CHANGES IN HOLDINGS

Continental We?1:ern Europe and SterlingArea countries together accounted for nearly2.5 billion dollars, or practically all, of thenet increase in foreign countries' gold anddollar holdings during 1953. At the year-end these groups of countries held about 60per cent of total foreign gold and dollars.Latin American countries as a group in-creased their holdings about 250 million dol-lars, after little change in 1952. Holdings of

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Canada and of the Asian countries not inthe Sterling Area each declined slightly.These changes may be seen in the accom-panying chart. A table presenting figures

FOREIGN GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGSBY AREA OR COUNTRYBillions of dollars

-/ 10

CONTINENTALWESTERN EUROPE

S UNITED KINGDOM andOTHER STERLING AREA_

\ ~\ASIA and

OTHER COUNTRIES

1947 1949

NOTE.—End-of-quarter data.

1951 1953

on foreign gold and dollar holdings for se-lected prewar and for postwar years will befound at the end of this article.

European and Sterling Area countries. Thedistribution of gold and dollar reservesamong European and Sterling Area coun-tries is affected by the settlement of intra-group trade through the European PaymentsUnion as well as by transactions with therest of the world and purchases of newlymined gold. The EPU settlements of thenet deficits and surpluses that remain afterclearing are made partly in credit and partlyin gold and dollar payments to and fromthe Union. The United Kingdom and therest, of the Sterling Area earned a net surplus

over the entire year, in spite of small netdeficits during the second half, and received115 million dollars from the Union. Theonly country earning larger amounts of goldand dollars was Germany, which receivedover 170 million dollars, spread fairly evenlythroughout the year. Switzerland, Nether-lands, and Austria earned moderate sur-pluses. France continued to be a large netdebtor to EPU, paying 255 million dollars.

The countries of the Sterling Area in-creased their gold and dollar holdings about760 million dollars or 23 per cent in 1953.The major portion of this gain was in theofficial and private holdings of the UnitedKingdom, which holds the central monetaryreserves for the Sterling Area. The officialreserves of gold and United States and Ca-nadian dollars, as announced by the BritishGovernment, rose from 1,846 million dollarsat the end of 1952 to 2,518 million on Decem-ber 31, 1953.

The gold and dollar holdings of Conti-nental Western Europe increased 1.7 billiondollars or 20 per cent in 1953. This largeexpansion continued the steady upward trendthat began in 1948. All countries in the areaimproved their reserve positions. Germanyand the Netherlands, as in 1952, experiencedthe largest over-all increases in gold anddollar holdings. Reflecting its earnings fromintra-European trade as well as large UnitedStates military expenditures, Germany's hold-ings rose 535 million dollars during 1953,more than doubling the preceding year'sgrowth. The Netherlands received substan-tial amounts of gold and dollars from Indo-nesia and increased its holdings 240 milliondollars, slightly less than during 1952.France's experience was also similar to thatof 1952. Despite its continued deficit withthe EPU, it was able to add about 90 milliondollars to its gold and dollar holdings,

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INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS

largely because of dollar receipts from grantaid and United States military expendituresin France and its overseas territories.

Other countries. The slight decline in thegold and dollar holdings of Asian countriesoutside the Sterling Area was mainly attrib-utable to Indonesia. Japan continued to earnlarge amounts of dollars from United Statesmilitary expenditures, but since imports rosesubstantially over 1952 levels, gold and dollarreserves increased only slightly during theyear. In order to settle its deficit with theSterling Area, Japan found it necessary toborrow sterling in London and to draw ster-ling from the International Monetary Fund.

Latin American countries generally im-proved their gold and dollar positions. Ar-gentina and Venezuela each added about 75million dollars to their holdings. After adecline of about 30 million dollars in 1952,Brazil's holdings rose last year by a similaramount, as imports receded from their 1952levels. The fourth quarter decline in Bra-zil's dollar holdings reflected increased pay-ments, largely out of funds previously dis-bursed to Brazil by the Export-Import Bank,on its short-term dollar debt to creditors inthe United States. Short-term claims onBrazil reported by banks in the United States,which had reached a peak of almost 385million dollars at the end of February, de-clined to about 130 million by the end ofthe year.

Canadian holdings of gold and dollarsdeclined 76 million in 1953, largely becauseof security repurchases in the United Statesmarket in the second and third quarters.

ADEQUACY OF FOREIGN

MONETARY RESERVES

At the end of 1953 the total of foreign goldand dollar holdings was more than 60 percent above that of 1938 and nearly three

times as large as in 1928, as may be seen inthe table at the end of this article. Further-more, the international financial institutionsorganized after World War II—the Inter-national Monetary Fund and the Interna-tional Bank for Reconstruction and Devel-opment—had gold and dollar holdings ofmore than 3 billion dollars. Whether themonetary reserves of individual countries areadequate to meet the needs of a freer systemof trade and payments among nations is notindicated by these statistics. The adequacyof reserves depends upon a number of factors,existing and prospective, which vary greatlyin relative importance from country to coun-try and are not subject to precise measure-ment.

An important function of the monetaryreserves of nations—like the cash reserves ofindividuals or business firms—is to permit thefinancing of temporary differences betweenincome and expenditures. Some working bal-ances are needed to finance day-to-day inter-national transactions. Reserves are alsoneeded for occasional differences betweenreceipts and payments such as might re-sult from a decline in the foreign demandfor a country's exports or an increase inits purchases from abroad. The availabil-ity of adequate reserves may enable a coun-try, whenever a temporary balance of pay-ments deficit develops, to avoid such meas-ures of adjustment as currency devaluation,the imposition of trade and exchange restric-tions, or domestic deflation. Unless the exist-ing level of reserves is generally regarded asadequate in relation to potential drains,minor fluctuations in the balance of paymentsmay be accentuated by speculative move-ments.

Consideration of the adequacy of reservesabroad has recently focused not only ontheir possible use as a buffer in case of tempo-

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INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS

rary reductions in demand in major tradingcountries but also on the problem of pro-viding a support for moves to relax directrestrictions on trade and the transferabil-ity of currencies. The need for reservesfor these purposes varies greatly from coun-try to country depending, in the one case, onthe size of exports and their sensitivity toreductions in income elsewhere and, in theother case, on the nature and timing of themeasures to relax trade and exchange re-strictions.

In many countries legal requirements andtraditions regarding the relation of monetaryreserves to the domestic liabilities of centralbanks and commercial banks also have animportant bearing on views as to the ade-quacy of reserves.

The adequacy of the monetary reserves ofcountries, either individually or in groups,cannot be measured on the basis of simplecomparisons with past years. For example,it is frequently noted that in relation to thegrowth in the value of world trade the re-serves of most countries have declined con-siderably since the late thirties. But the de-pressed conditions of prices and trade in thatperiod limit the value of such a comparison.A comparison with the late twenties wouldshow that foreign holdings of gold and dol-

lars have risen somewhat more than worldtrade. However, many other considerationsmust be taken into account in judging theadequacy of monetary reserves of particularcountries.

A revival of the international flow of pri-vate short-term commercial credit in responseto financial incentives might strengthen con-vertibility efforts and lessen somewhat theneed for monetary reserves by substitutingprivate for official financing of temporarypayments imbalances. Such a developmentwould be facilitated by a broadening of themarket for instruments of short-term inter-national credit.

The past two years have witnessed an ap-proach to a balance in international accountswhich might be sustained without directrestrictions on trade and payments amongnations. Furthermore, a considerable relaxa-tion of trade restrictions, including thoseagainst the dollar area, has been undertakenby a number of European countries and hasnot resulted in a reversal of the movementtoward international balance. The rebuild-ing of foreign monetary reserves, althoughonly one of the conditions for the achieve-ment of currency convertibility and non-discriminatory trade, is a further step towardthe attainment of these objectives.

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INTERNATIONAL GOLD AND DOLLAR MOVEMENTS

ESTIMATED GOLD RESERVES AND DOLLAR HOLDINGS OF FOREIGN COUNTRIES AND INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS,

1928, 1938, AND 1945-53

[End of year, except 1928. In millions of dollars]

Area and country

Continental Western Europe:AustriaBelgium-Luxembourg (and Belgian Congo)France (and dependencies)2

Germany (Federal Republic of)ItalyNetherlands (and Netherlands West Indies and

Surinam) » « . . .Portugal (and dependencies)Sweden , . . .SwitzerlandOthers

Total . . . .

Sterling Area:United KingdomUnited Kingdom dependenciesUnion of South Africa . . .»Other

Total

Canada

Latin America:ArgentinaBrazil •Cuba . . . .Mexico »Uruguay . . . .VenezuelaOther

Total

Asia:Indonesia . .Japan , . . . . , . .Philippine RepublicOther

Total

All other:Eastern Europe4 . . . .Other

Total

Total foreign countries

International5

Grand total

1928

11272,037

813416

26219

163197902

4,850

1,0850)

139276

1,400

415

16071149( i )

16168121274

1,125

16815410)

66

675

22560

285

8,750

8,750

1938

2

1

7

3

3

13

13

15841

,96647

213

,100186420990702

,300

,31362

305

,900

395

44944467S

16963

211

950

180316184180

760

49 595

520

,825

,825

1945

51,0112,131

791

597484695

1,6411,469

8,131

2,68432

920450

4,086

1,726

1,274549319410208252766

3,778

314129630

1,344

2,417

515111

626

20,764

20,764

1946

5977

1,2297

289

523480554

1,7971,407

7,268

2,89067

986517

4,460

1,475

1,185528379333217289725

3,656

327142448937

1,854

586111

697

19,410

489

19,899

1947

1

5

3

2

t

15

3

18

1079877690

204

406373164

,799967

,580

, 34658

813520

,737

718

SS84S9S14?39208?Q3610

,881

249

490698

, S93

568117

685

,194

,693

,887

1948

1

5

2

1

2

1

14

3

18

62838794179424

331291130

,886891

,826

70199498

,918

,221

3S7441S08

20344 S601

,744

219?06489801

, 71 S

442123

565

,989

,375

,364

1949

6

1

2

1

3

1

15

3

18

92912740149556

415234160

907

,186

,924103134562

,723

,365

417sin463?67236

647

,056

194333298684

509

378140

518

,357

,109

,466

1950

1

6

3

4

1

3

1

19

3

22

92848834222573

559

205,093,216

,829

120941533

,451

,988

S18S43S3041 S3114SR68O

,455

323S87377582

,869

344201

545

,137

,090

,227

1951

107898903434633

524331224

1,9731,087

7,114

2,843100197634

3,774

2,157

518All575366306445733

3,360

421729337698

2,185

309328

637

19,227

3,171

22,398

1952

1431,035

967691655

815374275

2,0531,360

8,368

2,318113194658

3,283

2,492

427390515375301519842

3,369

296936324811

2,367

3O7283

590

20,469

3,287

23,756

1953

2381,0981,0521,225

795

1,055469335

2,1331,660

10,060

3,009108214715

4,046

2,416

503423531341337595895

3,625

184958304863

2,309

306282

588

23,044

3,342

26,386

xGold reserves only. Dollar holdings are not reported separately and are included in the appropriate "Other" category,2For years 1938, 1945, 1946, and 1947 includes gold reserves of Bank of France, French Exchange Stabilization Fund, and French

dependencies; for subsequent years excludes the Stabilization Fund.3Includes holdings of other Continental OEEC countries, Finland, Spain, Yugoslavia, Bank for International Settlements (both for

its own and European Payments Union account), gold to be distributed by the Tripartite Commission for Restitution of Monetary Gold,and unpublished gold reserves of certain Western European countries.

4 Excludes gold reserves of, but includes dollar balances held by, the U.S.S.R.5Includes holdings of International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, and United Nations

and other international organizations. Excludes holdings of Bank for International Settlements, which are included under "ContinentalWestern Europe."

NOTE.—Includes reported and estimated gold reserves of central banks, governments, and international institutions, and official andprivate dollar holdings reported by banks m the United States, Gold reserves valued at $20.67 per fine ounce in 1928 and at $35 per fineounce for other years shown. Dollar holdings include principally deposits and U. S. Government securities (Treasury bills, certificates ofindebtedness, and notes and bonds reported as purchased within 20 months of maturity). Figures for 1928 are estimated on the basis ofgold reserves at the end of that year plus dollar holdings reported by 15 New York City banks as of May 31, 1929, the first date on which.such holdings were reported. Estimates for 1953 are preliminary.

MARCH 1954 245

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

March 1954