international migrant stock: estimates and dissemination · international migrant stock, 1990-2013...
TRANSCRIPT
International Migrant Stock:
estimates and dissemination
Chisinau, Moldova, 8-9 September 2014
Pablo Lattes
Migration Section, Population Division - DESA
United Nations, New York
The international migrant stock
continues to grow
International migrant stock, 1990-2013 (millions)
Proportion of international migrants in total population
154
175
221 232
0
50
100
150
200
250
2.9%
2.8%
3.2% 3.2%
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
1990 2000 2010 2013
Data availability from
2000 census round onwards
Percentage # of countries with data
Coverage of migrants (percentage)
Total Age Origin Total Age Origin
Africa (58) 62 69
Asia (50) 78 84
Europe (48) 90 100
Latin America and the Caribbean (48) 88 99
Northern America (5) 100 100
Oceania (23) 91 100
World (232) 80 93
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
Data availability from
2000 census round onwards
Percentage # of countries with data
Coverage of migrants (percentage)
Total Age Origin Total Age Origin
Africa (58) 62 41 59 69 44 74
Asia (50) 78 64 66 84 73 67
Europe (48) 90 90 90 100 100 100
Latin America and the Caribbean (48) 88 77 83 99 97 98
Northern America (5) 100 100 100 100 100 100
Oceania (23) 91 65 78 100 99 99
World (232) 80 67 75 93 87 88
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
International migrant stock
modelling
Countries with 2 or more data points • Extrapolation procedures • Adjust to estimated totals
Countries with 1 data point • a) data + regional variation + current events • b) constant distribution
Countries with no data • Based on a selection of similar countries (GCC,
ICS) – grouped into other South / North
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Age modelling of migrants
Some of the stock stays and ages
Some of the stock is recycled (replaced by new migrants with a model age distribution)
For each country - stock arrives or departs with model age distribution
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Origin and destination
Most international migrants come from
Asia and Europe…
73
62
3530
41
International migrant stock by major area of origin, 2010 (millions)
Africa Asia Europe Latin America & Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
…1.8%
…8.4%
…5.9%
…2.9%
…1.1%
…3.8%
Proportion of migrants in total population at origin
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Numbers of international migrants by
origin and destination, 1990-2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
South-North
South-South
North-North
North-South
1990 2000 2010 2013
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Migration impacts
Young people constitute a major
proportion of those migrating
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Age
Distribution of migrant inflows by age to selected countries in Europe, 2008 - 2009
Source: International migration flows to and from selected countries: The 2010 Revision
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Mostly young people are leaving Moldova
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Annual emigration from Moldova by age group, 2001-2011
Different impacts of migration on
population change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950-
1960
1960-
1970
1970-
1980
1980-
1990
1990-
2000
2000-
2010
2010-
2020
2020-
2030
2030-
2040
2040-
2050
mil
lio
ns
-10
40
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
1950-
1960
1960-
1970
1970-
1980
1980-
1990
1990-
2000
2000-
2010
2010-
2020
2020-
2030
2030-
2040
2040-
2050
mil
lio
ns
Total net change
Immigration-emigration
Births-deaths
Europe Slowing population
decline
Africa Reducing
population growth (but little impact)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Migration impacts on the dependency
ratio of old people
17.4
41.2
16.6
26.9
36.4
30.7
21.8
36.539.5
21.8
38.944.3
2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050
USA Moldova
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Dependency ratio of old people (65+) over working age population (20-65), (percentage)
with migration
without migration
Remittances:
the main recipient countries
71
60
2622 21
48
31
25 25 24
India China Philip-
pines
Tajikistan Kyrgyz
Republic
Top 5 recipients as a
share of GDP (2012)
Top 5 recipients (2013)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
US
$ b
illio
n
% o
f G
DP
Mexico Nigeria
Lesotho
Moldova
Source: World Bank
Nepal
Total:
414 billion USD
154 175
221 232
0
100
200
300
400
500
2.9% 2.8%
3.2% 3.2%
Proportion of migrants in total population
443 513
4.6%
5.4%
1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants
continues to increase (millions)
2050
19
90
-20
00
gro
wth
rate
20
00
-20
10
gro
wth
rate
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Dissemination efforts
Online data
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
United Nations Global Migration Database http://unmigration.org
• Empirical databases online
• Estimates online
• Migration profiles (country specific)
• Fact sheets (theme specific)
• Wall charts
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
UNPopulation.org /publications /Population Facts
Dissemination through the use of maps
- Moldovan population abroad
50,000 to 300,000
10,000 to 50,000 1,000 to 10,000
1 to 1,000
Moldovan migrant stock by destination countries, 2010
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Europe out
Europe in Oceania
Latin Am out
Latin Am in
Africa out
Africa in
N. A. out
N. A. in
Asia out
Asia in
www.unmigration.org
Questions?