international migration in latin america and the caribbean · international migration in latin...
TRANSCRIPT
International Migration in Latin Americaand the Caribbean
Contributions from Mexican Meeting
INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ONINTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Turin, June 28-30, 2006
Elena Zúñiga Herrera
Mission
• To bring up some of the conclusions andresults of the Expert Group Meeting onInternational Migration and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Mexico City, Nov. 30- Dec.2, 2005
Sponsorship of the meeting
CONAPO-Mexico
United Nations Population Division
UNFPA
CELADE- Population Division of ECLAC.
Main questions
How can international migration be made towork for development?
How had international migration in the LAC region worked for development?
What has happened in the past 20 years as regards migration and development?
High Increase of Migration
Most Latin American Countries are sending countriesThe volume of LAC flows of migrationhave greatly increased in recent yearsPatterns of origin and destination haveundergone a process of transformationThe U.S. is the primary destination, followed by other developed countries
0.92.2
4.4
9.311.0
0.7
1.3
2.0
3.03.2
0.1
0.4
1.2
2.1
2.7
0.3
0.6
1.1
2.0
2.3
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
12.5
15
17.5
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005Year
Milli
on p
erso
ns
Mexico Caribbean Central America South America
Population of Latin America and the Caribbean Resident in the UnitedStates, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2005
Source: Estimates based on Bureau of Census, 15-percent sample 1970, 5-percent sample 1980,1990 and 2000, Current Population Survey (CPS), March 2005.
10.3 Million in March 2004
Rest ofLatin America -- 24%
2.5 million
Africa & Other -- 4%0.4 million
Europe &Canada -- 6%
0.6 million
Asia -- 9%1.0 million
Mexico -- 57%5.9 million
Undocumented Are Largely Latin American
Source: Jeffrey S. Passel, Pew Hispanic Center. Latin American Migration to the United States: Trends and Impacts.
Stunted DevelopmentEconomies become foreign market-oriented
Assymetries between them and developedcountries mantained or increased
Many countries suffered serious economic crises, with a strong impact in poverty levels
Some of them defaulted or almost defaulted on their debt
Many had to renegotiate far-reaching reform packages that severely limited employment growth, lowered wages and incomes, and curtailed growth of domestic markets.
Poverty in Latin America and theCaribbean 1990 and 1999
Source: World Development Indicators 2003, The World Bank
12.113.2
28.2 28.3
02468
101214
1990 1999
Year
Mill
ion
pers
ons
0.05.010.015.020.025.030.0
Percentage
Population Percentage
Some examples
Poverty in Ecuador rose from 34% to 71% between 1995 and 2000
Mexican economic crisis of December 1994 increased extreme poverty from 21% to 37% between 1994 and 1996
Economically Active Population and PaidEmployment in Mexico, 1970-2000
Source: Hernández Laos, Enrique; Desarrollo Demográfico y Económico de México 1970-2000-2030, CONAPO, 2004, p. 28
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Thou
sand
Per
sons
Economically Active Population Paid Employment
Migration helps reduce pressure on labor markets
Educational CompositionEducational Composition1980s Arrivals1980s Arrivals
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%La
tin A
mer
ica
Mex
ico
El S
alva
dor
Gua
tem
ala
Hon
dura
sN
icar
agua
Pan
ama
Cos
ta R
ica
Dom
inic
a
Cub
aJa
mai
caH
aiti
Guy
ana
Trin
& T
ob.
Barb
ados
Beliz
eG
rena
daBa
ham
asW
est I
ndie
sS
t. V
ince
ntAn
tigua
-Bar
buda
Dom
. Rep
.
St.
Luci
aS
t. K
itts-
Nev
isC
olom
bia
Per
uEc
uado
rB
razi
lVe
nezu
ela
Arge
ntin
aC
hile
Boliv
iaU
rugu
ayPa
ragu
ay
Chi
naIn
dia
Philip
pine
sR
ussi
a
Bachelor's GraduateSource: Brain Drain and Latin America, Çaglar Özden
Percentage Educated in the USPercentage Educated in the US1980s Arrivals1980s Arrivals
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Latin
Am
eric
aM
exic
oE
l Sal
vado
rG
uate
mal
aH
ondu
ras
Nic
arag
uaP
anam
aC
osta
Ric
aD
om. R
ep.
Cub
aJa
mai
caH
aiti
Guy
ana
Trin
& T
ob.
Bar
bado
sB
eliz
eG
rena
daB
aham
asW
est I
ndie
sS
t. V
ince
ntA
ntig
ua-B
arbu
daD
omin
ica
St.
Luci
aS
t. K
itts-
Nev
isC
olom
bia
Per
uE
cuad
orB
razi
lV
enez
uela
Arg
entin
aC
hile
Bol
ivia
Uru
guay
Par
agua
y
Chi
naIn
dia
Phi
lippi
nes
Rus
sia
Bachelor's Degree Graduate DegreeFuente: Brain Drain and Latin America, Çaglar Özden
$0.00$5,000,000,000.00
$10,000,000,000.00$15,000,000,000.00$20,000,000,000.00$25,000,000,000.00$30,000,000,000.00$35,000,000,000.00$40,000,000,000.00$45,000,000,000.00$50,000,000,000.00
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Remittances to Latin America and theCaribbean,1980-2004
Remittances Play Critical Role as Source of Foreign Exchange
Source: Orozco, Remittances in the Latin American and Caribbean Region.
50
100
150
200
250
30019
90
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Perc
enta
ge
TourismAgricultural exportsOil exportsMaquiladora trade balance
Mexico. Remittances as percentage ofOther Sources of Foreign Income, 1990
- 2003
Source: Drawn up on the basis of data from Banco de México, Indicadores económicos y página WEB, several years.
Importance of remittanceHelp provide foreign currency
Contribute a major share of national income
They have a macroeconomic impact thattends not to decrease with economicdownturns
Remittances have multiplying effects and the potential to generate wealth, not just to receptors (homes and communities)
Households With Bank Accounts
41
3431
19
46
17 1619
16
34
05
101520253035404550
Guatemala Honduras El Salvador Mexico Ecuador
Per
cent
age
RecipientsNon-Recipients
Source: Multilateral Investment y Honduras, Septiembre 2003; Receptores de Remesas en Ecuador, Mayo 2003. Washington, DC: MIF-IADB/FOMIN-BID.
Remittances contribute to enabling financial citizenship
Fund-Inter-American Development Bank, Receptores de Remes
Migration and poverty
• Remittances contribute to reduce poverty levels, but strategies to overcome this serious social problem demand structural changes that facilitate sustainable productive expansion and the population’s economic and social mobility.
-1.9
-2.6
-2.6
-7.9
-6.7
-7.2
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
Incidence oftotal poverty
Incidence oftotal poverty -
urban
Incidence oftotal poverty -
rural
Percentage Salvador Honduras
El Salvador and Honduras. RemittanceImpact on Poverty Reduction
Source: Crecimiento Exportador y Remesas en Centroamérica: Efectos macroeconómicos y en la pobreza, Marco V. Sánchez C.
El Salvador and Honduras
• Poverty in El Salvador y Honduras has fallen considerably as a result of remittances, butthere has not been a significant increase in total production
•Flows of private capital, including remittances, have led to an appreciation of the real exchange rate, reducing the effect ofcommercial reforms on the profitability of theexport sector
El Salvador and Honduras
The capacity to generate foreign currency in those countries depends primarily onremittances-rather than on export capacity.
Although the appreciation of the exchange ratehas benefitted sectors that produce non tradinggoods and services, the increase in internalconsumption has not had a dynamic effect ontotal production or aggregated employment.
The sustained growth of remittances couldreproduce this productive inertia in the long termthrough the appreciation of the exchange rate, which would adversely affect the export sector.
In a situation in which the “remittance disease”persists, the productive apparatus might proveincapable of rapidly adjusting to a fall in remittances (for whatever reason) which wouldcreate a negative outlook for poverty
Remittances could be an aspirin
Remittances as percentage of the trade balance (2004)
13%
1272%
247% 143%
0%200%400%600%800%
1000%1200%1400%
Brazil DominicanRepublic
Ecuador Mexico
positive trade balance negative trade balance
Source: The World Bank
Conclusiones
Remittances have a positive effect on the income of the families that receive them and contribute to improve their quality of life.
The global volumes of remittances received in many countries constitute important sources of foreign exchange
Conclusions
Remittances play a critical role as a source of foreign exchange, but its volume does not provide a solution to the challenges of development.
The structural problems of poverty and inequality go beyond controlling remittances. Moreover, its effect depends on the ability of the productive base of the local economy to absorb external savings.
Development depends directlyon a development policy.
It was agreed that remittances cannot resolve regional and national development problems which by definition demand broader state participation, as well as increasing private investment flows. In the same way, these economic transfers cannot replace Official Development Assistance funds.
• By the reduction of exports derived from an appreciation of the national currency.
• They can have inflationary effects• And generate dependency and social
inequality.
Migrant Transfers May Have Undesirable Effects
Conclusions
Within a context of globalization and profoundly asymmetric regional integration, the balance between the costs and benefits of international migration, in the medium and long term, in developing countries may be very different to that of developed countries.
In order to understand how migration may act in favor of development, it is not enough to classify countries as receivers or senders; the degree of development and the way they are inserting in the global economy must also be taken into account.
Source: Remesas, desigualdad y pobreza: evidencias en el México rural, Jorge Mora