international workshop on flash flood forecasting – costa rica march 2006 world meteorological...
TRANSCRIPT
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONWORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONWeather, Climate and WaterWeather, Climate and Water
INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON FLASH FLOOD FORECASTINGFLASH FLOOD FORECASTING
OVERVIEW OF THE FLOOD-RELATED OVERVIEW OF THE FLOOD-RELATED PROGRAMMES OF WMOPROGRAMMES OF WMO
Bruce StewartBruce StewartPresident of CHyPresident of CHy
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
CONTENT
• Role of WMO in Hydrology and Water Resources
• Objectives of WMO in Hydrology and Water Resources
• Flood-related Activities
• Other WMO Programmes
• Conclusions
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
ROLE OF WMO IN HWR
• Safety of life and property
• Information and knowledge in support of Integrated Water
Resources Management
• Capacity building
• Support for knowledge based operations and policies
• Promotion of risk management approach
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
OBJECTIVE OF WMO IN HWR
To apply hydrology to:
• meet the needs for sustainable development and use of
water and related resources;
• the prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters;
and
• ensure effective environmental management at national,
regional and international levels.
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
FOCUS OF WMO IN HWR
• The measurement of basic hydrological elements form networks of
hydrological and meteorological stations
• The collection, processing, storage, retrieval and publication of
hydrological data
• The provision of hydrological data and related information for use in
planning and operating water resources projects and monitoring the
status of water resources
• The provision of effective flood forecasting and warning services
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
COMPONENTS OF THE HWRP
• Basic Systems in Hydrology
• Forecasting and Applications in Hydrology
• Sustainable Development of Water Resources
• Capacity Building in Hydrology and Water Resources
• Water-related Issues
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
FLOOD-RELATED ACTIVITIES
• What do we mean by Flood-related activities?
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
Total Flood Warning System
Prediction
Interpretation
Message Construction
Protective Response
Rev
iew
aft
er e
ven
t
Fee
db
ack
du
rin
g e
ven
tCommunication
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
FLOOD RELATED-ACTIVITIES
• Prediction
- Measurement of rainfall
- Measurement of river height (WHYCOS)
- Derivation of streamflow
- QPE and QPF
- Hydrological Modelling
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
FLOOD RELATED-ACTIVITIES
• Interpretation
- Flood hazard mapping
- Hydraulic modelling
- ???
• Message construction
- ???
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
FLOOD RELATED-ACTIVITIES (Ctd.)
• Communication- Collection systems- Dissemination systems- Web-based information- ???
• Protective response- Design rainfall/flood information - Awareness raising- ???
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
SPECIFIC INITIATIVES
• Standards and Practices• Automated rating curve derivation• Streamflow Gauging Manual• Intercomparison Project – Instruments,
Transmission Systems• Guide to Hydrological Practices• WHYCOS – HYCOS
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
SPECIFIC INITIATIVES (Ctd.)
• Flood Design Manual• PMP Manual • Flood Forecasting Manual• WMO Flood Initiative• International Flood Initiative • Global Flood Forecasting Project
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
GLOBAL/REGIONAL SHORT-TERM HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING SYSTEM
RECOMMENDATIONS
• The tools should be tested in different river basins (in particular, in an arid/semi-arid region);
• Preference should be given to river basins that are multi-national;• The role of the NHSs and other stakeholders must be recognised and
maintained• The involvement of relevant WMO Regional Association Working
Groups on Hydrology should be sought; and• Possible river basins include: the Limpopo, Lake Victoria, a river basin
in West Africa, the Mekong, Central America, the Niger and the Oka.
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
GLOBAL/REGIONAL SHORT-TERM HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING SYSTEM
STEPS/STAGES
• A compilation of the approaches (QPE, QPF, etc);• A study identifying in greater detail the strengths and weaknesses of
the approaches;• A comparative testing of targeted elements of the forecast capability;• Development of a prototypical composite system or systems; and• Preparation of project packages for funding (including a needs
assessment).
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
RECENT DIRECTIONSWeb Products
•Maps and data bulletins•Updated hourly – daily
Modelling•Spatially distributed, event-based•National system - scaleable
Hydromet Inputs•Quantitative radar rain•NWP, QPF
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
Single Most Important Action?
• Community education, engagement & awareness – participation, empowerment, ownership. People should be made aware of their personal risk
• Improved agency coordination – national consistency/national agency, improved agency coordination framework
• Better risk communication – incl. use of technology, radio/media accessibility
0
10
20
30
40
50
Per
cen
t o
f V
ote
s
CommunityEducation,
Engagement,Awareness
ImprovedAgency
Coordination
Better RiskCommunication
International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting – Costa Rica March 2006
CONCLUDING REMARKS
• WMO is doing a lot in its areas of expertise• Where should we target future initiatives? • Any flood forecasting system is only as strong as its
weakest link – how do we involve all of the stakeholders?• Stress the need for greater collaboration between NHSs
and NMSs in flood forecasting • Look forward to the presentations and discussions from
this week to futher define and refine the HWR work plan