international workshop on nuclear science and education - [email protected] 17/03/2009 present and...
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International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] 17/03/2009
Present and future of nuclear energy,main trends
International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] - 17/03/2009 2
1. The race for energy
2. The nuclear today and to-morrow
3. Jobs and competencies in support of a reactor power program
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Source IEA : Energy to 2050 -Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
Huge call for energy to fuel the world economy growth
• Present: before current crisis, fast growing countries, like China or India, did unbalance the energy resources market equilibrium
• Future: better share of energy among countries and development of electricity use is of vital necessity, along with a growing population
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30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wo
rld
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
So
urc
es
(Gto
e)
6
6,5
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8,5
9
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n (B
illio
ns)
Other RenewablesBiomassNuclearGasOilCoalPopulation
Electricity in Africa & Europe
(Nasa)
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A new challenge: the global warming Greenhouse gases emissions are affecting the climate,
inducing catastrophic events (droughts, torrential rains, seas level increase)
Energy sector is a strong contributor to CO2 emissions and will be affected by the development of a world policy
Deforestation
CO2 emissions
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Hydraulics & nuclear, best ways to reduce CO2 emissions
FRANCE
Hydraulics & nuclear have about equal share in the worldelectricity production, with about 15 % each.
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World electricity generation in 2006
coal 41%
oil 6%
gas 20%
biomass 1%
wind 1%
hydro 16%
nuclear 15%
Source IEA
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Solar & wind: for the future…
• Still a very low contribution to the world energy balance:– Solar: 0.55 % of total energy consumption
0.02% of electricity generation– Wind: 0.7 % of electricity generation
• But a fast growing development in some countries through a financial support and a guaranty on the return of investment
Photovoltaic productionSource : AIE
Windmill productionSource : American Windmill Association
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Not one answer !• Limits:
– Fossil (coal, oil, gas): their development will be limited by carbon penalties ; the potential sequestration of CO2 emission could only be partial and costly
– Hydraulics: potential sites are still existing in specific areas, allowing a factor of 12 to 15 (US Geological Survey), compared to the existing capacity, bur it’s not of generic use
– Renewable (wind & solar) can only have a partial contribution to electricity production, for they only produce when the resource is available
– Nuclear is a complex technology under control of international and national policies and cannot be quickly deployed
• The past 50 years has seen several rankings in the cost of electricity generation between coal, gas & nuclear, mostly due to the market variations on the price of raw resources. The optimization of economical risks leads to diversify means of production.
International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] - 17/03/2009 9
Mineral world energy resources
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Speculative
Estimated
Proven
Source
US National Academy of
Science
(Cla
thra
tes)
Thousands of « quads »
(Nota : 450 quads = about 1 year of world energy consumption) 1 quad = 1015 BTU
International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] 17/03/2009
Take them all
and make the electricity use more efficient !Nuclear
Solar
Hydraulics
Wind
Gas
Coal
What is advisable today? An energy mix…
International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] 17/03/2009
The nuclear today and to-morrow
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Some specific characteristics of nuclear power
• Long term engagement, which cannot afford a stop & go process– 15 years to be prepared– 60 years of operation– 20 years for complete dismantling
• Public acceptance and political will• Drastic constraints in term of safety and quality
calling for a specific culture more stringent than in current industry
• Large investment at the very beginning (60% of the production cost is coming from the capital cost)– Financial engineering is determinant – Construction delays
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Gas Coal Nuclear
Fuel
O&M
Capital
Cost of electricity generation
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Nuclear reactors in the world
Today: 15% of the world electricity generation - 7% of primary energy use
_1
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Nuclear generation timeframe
Generation I : GG, 1st LWR
Generation II : current LWR
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Generation III : EPR, AP 1000, ABWR,…
First First ReactorsReactors
Current Current ReactorsReactors
Advanced Advanced ReactorsReactors
Future Future SystemsSystems
Generation IV?
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Overview on the new generation of LWR
• Areva: EPR, ATMEA (with MHI), SWR1000• AtomEnergoProekt: VVER AES 2006• Hitachi-General Electric: ABWR, ESBWR• Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power: APR 1400• Mitsubishi: APWR,ATMEA (with Areva)• Toshiba – Westinghouse: AP1000• …
AP1000 sketch EPR construction in France Japanese ABWR
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Main drivers for generation 3
• Safety: – Lessons from TMI: multi failures accidents and
improved man-machine interface – Lessons from Chernobyl: prevention & mitigation of
severe accidents– Improvement of protection against external hazards
• Economy• Operability:
– Doses reduction during maintenance– Load factor
To make use of more than 10 000 years of operating experience in LWR to improve the design
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Mineral world energy resources
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Speculative
Estimated
Proven
Source
US National Academy of
Science
(Cla
thra
tes)
Thousands of « quads »
(Nota : 350 quads = about 1 year of world energy consumption)
The challenge
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The challenge• The technology for amplifying the energy out of
uranium resources is well known: – implement in the reactor core a breeding process to
change U238, fertile, into Pu239, fissile – and recycle the new material via reprocessing
• Fast Breeder Reactors can do that and are doing it in various countries (India, France, Japan, Russia)
• But the current technology has some drawbacks:– The safety has not reach the level of a Generation 3 LWR
reactors– Their cost is higher than a LWR– Their design has not really considered non proliferation
issues
Phenix reactor(France)
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New goals for sustainable nuclear energyNew goals for sustainable nuclear energy
Systems marketable from 2040Systems marketable from 2040 onwardsonwards
True potential for newTrue potential for newapplicationsapplicationsHydrogen, potable water, heat
Internationally shared R&DInternationally shared R&D
Continuous progress : Continuous progress : - Economically competitive
- Safe and reliable
Membersof the
Generation IV International
Forum
Membersof the
Generation IV International
Forum
USAUSA
ArgentinaArgentina
BrazilBrazil
CanadaCanada
FranceFrance
JapanJapan
South AfricaSouth Africa
UnitedUnitedKingdomKingdom
South KoreaSouth Korea
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
EUEU
Break-through :- Waste minimization
- Natural resources conservation
- Proliferation resistance
ChinaChina RussiaRussia
Research toward Generation 4
International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] 17/03/2009
What means developing a nuclear power program in term of jobs and competences !
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Huge need for nuclear specialists at the world level• Why ?
– The large growth in nuclear reactors was in the end of sixties – beginning of seventies and the peoples who was hired at this time are retiring now
– The sudden increase of reactors demands during the last few years
• Where?– Vendors, for developing new designs, for manufacturing and
constructing reactors– Utilities, for preparing a program, making relevant choice, managing
orders and constructions and for preparing the operation of the new reactors
– Industry, for contributing to manufacturing, construction and maintenance & operation
– Nuclear regulators, for the licensing of new reactors and control of construction operations
– Public organizations, for preparing the countries: nuclear laws, public acceptance, wastes management, emergency situation preparedness…
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The French example: nuclear employment needs For Industry: mainly AREVA, EDF and GDF- Suez
• 1 200 per year ( 2010) including 900 engineers• 1 100 per year (2011 ) including 650 engineers
For Research and Development : mainly CEA, IRSN, ASN
• 250 per year ( 2010): 50 % engineers and PhD• 200 per year (2011 ): 50 % engineers and PhD
For Sub contractors• ~ 1 000 per year ( 2012), including ~ 500 engineers• ~ 700 per year (2013 ), including ~ 300 engineers
Total manpower needs:
2 450 per year 2010 (1 500 engineers) 2 300 per year > 2010 - <2012 (1 250 engineers) 2 000 per year 2013 (950 engineers)
International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] 17/03/2009
Basic needs for a country entering for the first time in nuclear power generation
Figures are only indicative for one plant with 2 LWR of 1000 MWe
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Safety teams• Assessment of design, design changes, new procedures,
specific action or work on the reactor, and their approval• Follow-up of reference laws, rules and binding
documents in force on the plant• And, for the national nuclear regulator, decisions on
penalties in case of non compliance
Operation teamon site
Site management
Site safetycontrol team
(20 p)
Utility management
Utility safetycontrol team
(10 p)
National nuclear
regulator(100 p)
Inspection and control
People in safety teams are engineers (MSc)or experts (PhD)
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Operation team on site
• Management: 10 p (PhD & MSc)• Operation: 150 p*• Maintenance & repairs: 300 p*• Logistics: 150 p*
*about 10% with a Master degree or above
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Education & training for nuclear energy (1/2)
• Operation of nuclear reactors requests in general higher educated peoples than current industry: complexity & tractability
• Some jobs are very nuclear specific and require an educational degree in nuclear sciences (mostly MSc & PhD), e.g. :– Core physics (neutronics and thermal hydraulics)– Nuclear fuel– Radioprotection– Nuclear materials– Nuclear safety & quality– Nuclear process
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Education & training for nuclear energy (2/2)
• Other jobs are similar to those in current industry, e.g. :– Civil engineering– Chemistry & environment– Software and signal treatment, Instrumentation & control– Electrical engineering, electro mechanics– Purchase and sales– Economy, finance– Project & risk management
• But, in addition, dedicated courses (from 2 weeks to 2 months, according to the educational level and proximity) are needed to get nuclear understanding and culture
• All organizations involved in nuclear activities should implement a tutoring process for the new comers
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Conclusions
• Egypt has a nuclear power program to be deployed during the next years
• Nuclear is a very specific industry which requests specific education & training
• Education is one of the key issues for the success of the program
• Timing is essential and a clear view of the time distribution of the needs is essential, in term of number of peoples and their competencies
• Education is not enough, training is also necessary and imply international cooperation
International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] 17/03/2009
سادتي آنساتي سيداتياالنتباه على أشكركم
مرة أزوركم أتمنىتانية
International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] 17/03/2009
Backup
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Economy
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Génération IV : les six concepts innovants retenus à fin 2002
Réacteur rapide Sodium
Réacteur rapide au plomb
Réacteur à sels fondus
Réacteur rapide à gaz
Réacteur à eau supercritiqueRéacteur à gaz, Très Haute Température