internationl hydro politics
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internationl-hydro-politicsTRANSCRIPT
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The challenge of
Managing Trans-Boundary Water Resources
RAM AVIRAMPanteion University
11 May 2015
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Domestic uses
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competing uses
how to mange it?
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Indeed – water is a complex systembut…
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- within a statea sovereign
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Visit 1:
A complex basin is born….
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שת"פ מים חוצי גבולות - רם אבירםחיפה - 2014 -
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DEVILS LAKE
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שת"פ מים חוצי גבולות - רם אבירםחיפה - 2014 -
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FOOLDS
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• How to contain the floods? Engineering
• Who will bear the costs: The municipality, the state, the Federal Government?
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a trans-boundary water source
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“International watercourse” means a watercourse, parts of which are situated in different States;
Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses (UN, 1997)
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Trans-boundary systemis even more complex
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Canada :what is the quality of the water?
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Three questions 1. who are the players?
2. what can they do to achieve their interests?
3. If there is conflict will there be a war between Canada and the US?
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and there are so many such basins
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276 – rivers and lakes basins
300 – trans-boundary aquifers
40% of world population live in shared basins
148 countries have at least one shared basin
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Issues at hand:
hydrology
sovereignty – interdependency
international law
interests
conflict and cooperation
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Visit 2:
The giant and the dwarf having a meal together
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La Plata
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La Plata
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Paraguay Brazil
0.5 m sq km 8.5 m sq km area
6.5 m 203.5 m population
33 b$ 2200 b$ GDP
8.5 b kvh 460 b kvh Energy consumptionyear
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Three questions
• How the water was divided/allocated between the two countries? And in which way: War? Unilateral actions? Agreement?
• If they got “married” - are the sides happy forever and ever?
• When are we going to visit the falls in the picture?
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Issues at hand:
dynamics of interactions
power
hegemony
strategy
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Visit 3:players shaking suspicious hands
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The Indus basin
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partition of India 1947
INDIAPAKISTAN
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13 years of negotiations
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2 nuclear powers3 wars
dispute over Kashmirongoing hostilities
The Treaty is kept by both sides
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• 1992 – the Indian authorities announced on their intention to build the Baglihar Dam which will be “according to the Treaty”
• 1992 – the Pakistani authorities announced that the planned Indian dam is “a breach of the Treaty”
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2007 - The Baglihar Dam
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Three questions
Was the dam built after India won a war on it against Pakistan?
Is it possible that 2 sides to an agreement will understand it in opposite ways?
Did any part of the agreement served in the process of resolution of the conflict?
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Issues at hand:
negotiations
agreements
institutions
conflict resolution mechanism
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Pressures on the sources
on top of the inherent conflict
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Visit 4:thirsty neighbors…
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WWF 7 4.4.6 Sacred rivers JORDAN & ISRAEL
43
The Lower Jordan River Basin
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Population Growth
Total West of Jordan
R.
East of Jordan
R.
Syria year
5 1 0.5 3.5 195043 12 9 22 2014
X9
44
+Climate change
<10% of the original flow
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population growth + development + climate change
the world was on alarm…
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“The wars of the 21st century will be fought over water ”…
Ismail Serageldin
VP World Bank
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INDEED?wars over water?
orlearning how to cooperate
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Thank you
and see you in the next year