Introduction and OverviewSub Workshop 4Mobile Sources

Better Air Quality 2002Hong Kong

December 16-18, 2002

Summary Setting Standards For New & In Use

Vehicles Successful I/M Programs Diesel Retrofit Experiences Fuel Quality in Asia

Current Trends Desulfurization Costs & Benefits Clean Fuels Partnership

CNG Issues & Potential Benefits Modeling Mobile Source Emissions

CLEAN

VEHICLE

TECHNOLOGY

CLEAN

FUELS

APPROPRIATE

MAINTENANCE

ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE

VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY

TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING

Integrated Air Quality Management Framework

Emissions

Ambient Concentration

Exposure

• Establish objectives, identify data gaps, studies and pilots

• Identify, analyze and select management options

• Develop strategies & implement action plan

• Institute monitoring and enforcement

Issues• Technical

• Economic

• Institutional

• Legal

• Policy

• Social

• StakeholderInvolvement

Options• Fuels & VehicleTechnology

• TrafficManagement

• Standards

• EconomicIncentives andDisincentives

New Vehicle Standards In Asia

Car Standards

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 8 09 10

Bangladesh Euro 1 (proposed) Red = proposed

Cambodia

Hong Kong Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3

India Euro 1 Euro 2 (4 Metros) Euro 2** (proposed) ** = Euro 3 in 7 Megacities

Indonesia Euro 1 (proposed) Euro 2 (proposed)

Malaysia Euro 1 Euro 2

Nepal Euro 1

Philippines Euro 1

PRC Euro 1 Euro 2

SingaporeEuro 1 Euro 2

Sri Lanka Idle CO & HC/Diesel Smoke Standards

Taipei,China US Tier 1

Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4

Viet Nam Euro 1

New Vehicle Standards in Asia

Heavy Duty Diesel Truck Standards95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Bangladesh Euro 1 (proposed)

CambodiaHong Kong Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3

India Euro 1 Euro 2 (4 Metros) Euro 2** (proposed) ** = Euro 3 in 7 Megacities

Indonesia Euro 1 (proposed) Euro 2 (proposed)

Malaysia Euro 1

Nepal Euro 1

Philippines Euro 1

PRC Euro 1 Euro 2

SingaporeEuro 1

Sri Lanka Diesel Smoke Standard

Taipei,China US 91

Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2

Viet Nam Euro 1

2- WHEELER MASS EMISSION STANDARDS OF ASIAN COUNTRIES,g/kmCOUNTRY VEHICLES YEAR CO HC NOx HC+NOx REMARKSINDIA ALL 2W 2000 2 2 IDC

ALL 2W 2005 1.5 1.5 IDC, DF of 1.2INDONESIA ALL 2W 2001 12 10

2007 5 3NEPAL ALL 2W 1999 2 2PRC, CHINA MOPEDS 2001 6 3 ECE R 47

MOPEDS 2005 1 1.2 ECE R 47M/CY, 2S 2002 8 4 0.1 ECE R 40M/CY, 4S 2002 13 3 0.3 ECE R 40

BEIJING ALL 2W 2003 4.5 3 ECE R 40ALL 2W 2004 3.5 2 ECE R 40

TAIPEI,CHINA < 700 CC 2002 3.5 2 CNS 11386<700cc,2S 2004 7 1 COLD START<700cc,4S 2004 7 2 COLD START

THAILAND ALL 2W 2001 4.5 3<110cc 2003 3.5 2>110cc 2004 3.5 2

VIET NAM M/CYCLES 2004 4.5 3M/CYCLES 2007 3.5 2MOPEDS 2004 6 3MOPEDS 2007 1 1.2

Source: Mr. Iyer

Fuel Quality is Critical Elimination of Lead in Gasoline

Allows Catalyst Technology Very Low Sulfur Levels

Enhances All Catalyst Technology Performance

Necessary To Use Advanced Technologies

Other Benefits Other Fuel Properties Also Important

Diesel Fuel Specifications Around The World

050100150200250300350400450500

PPM

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Sulfur in Fuel (PPM)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Tons Per Million Gallons

Tons of Directly Emitted PM From Diesel Fuels Sulfur

Other Benefits from Sulfur Control

Sulfur reduction reduces SO2 emissions. Less sulfate formation in the atmosphere

(about 1/3 of SO2 reacts to sulfate) Reduced acid rain.

Sulfur reduction reduces engine wear. Reduction from 2500 ppm to 500 ppm

reduces engine wear 10 - 20%; about 33% if starting out at 5000 ppm.

Greater engine wear with infrequent oil change.

SingaporeMalaysia

ThailandPhilippines

IndonesiaMyanmar

BruneiIndia

PakistanBangladesh

Sri LankaChina

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

US Cents per Liter

10502503505001,0003,000

Cost of Reducing Sulfur in Diesel Fuel in Asia

(High Sulfur Crude)

Source: Enstrat International

Gasoline and Diesel Reformulation Costs in China

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

05-2 Euro2 05-4 Euro3 10-7 Euro3 10-11 Euro4 10-12 Euro5

US

cen

ts/g

allo

n

Cost cents/gal gasoline

Cost cents/gal diesel

Total cost, cents/gal

Source: Dr. Yamaguchi

Heavy Truck Survival Rates in the US

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1 6 11 16 21 26

Vehicle Age

Surv

ival R

ate

Median Lifetime = 29 Years

New York City Retrofit Experience

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

CO2 NOx THC CO PM CO2 N Ox THC CO PM

Perc

enta

ge

Ch

ang

e in

g/m

i

OEM Catalyst / ULSD (50 ppm S) fuel

CRT Catalyst / ULSD (50 ppm S) fuel

NYC Bus ID# 6019 NYC Bus ID# 6065

-80% -80%

0%

-35%

0%

PM HC NOx Noise-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Level B Level C

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20051995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

No Retrofit

Level B Only

Levels B&C

Swedish Retrofit ProgramAll Trucks Above 3.5 Tons

Very Low Sulfur Fuel Dominates The Market

Diesel Particulate Filters

Trapped PMCell Plugs

Exhaust(PM, CO, HC)Enter

Ceramic HoneycombWall

Exhaust (CO2, H2O)Out

Issues to balance:

•sulfate formation

•regeneration and back pressure

•Fuel Economy

Reductions:

•-80 to 95% PM

•-80-100% HC, CO

•-80%+ toxins

Dealing With Dirty Diesels Clean Them Up

ULSD Oxidation

Catalysts Diesel PM Filters Certification

Process

Switch To CNG Fuel Availability &

Infrastructure New Engines Vs.

Conversions Certification

Process

1 1 1 1 10.71

3.65

0.05 0 0

1.151.27

0.280

1.67

Conventional Diesel & FuelLow Emission Diesel & ULSD

CNG w/o Ox Catalyst0

1

2

3

4

& Fuel w/371 PPM S

Normalized To Conventional Diesel

NOxNO2PMSO4NMHC

Source:SWRI

School Bus Emissions Comparison of Conventional Diesel & 371 PPM S Fuel with CNG

and Low Emissions Diesel & 14 PPM S Fuel

1 1 1

1

1 1

0.05 0 0.030.190.28

0.030.28

0 0.06

18.522.53

0.06

Conventional Diesel & FuelLow Emission Diesel & ULSD

CNG w/o Ox Catalyst0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

& Fuel w/371 PPM S

Normalized To Conventional Diesel

0

5

10

15

Formaldehyde

PMSO4

PAH & DerivativesFormaldehyde

Acetaldehyde POM

Source:SWRI

School Bus Emissions Comparison of Conventional Diesel & 371 PPM S Fuel with CNG

and Low Emissions Diesel & 14 PPM S Fuel

California Air Resources Board Study Of Oxidation Catalyst On

CNG Bus

Aldehydes Reduced by 95% NMHC Emissions Reduced by 88% 1,3 Butadiene Below Detection Limit Additional Reduction of PM, CO and

Total HC Additional Reduction of Ultrafine PM

Bottom Line: Clean Diesels with Very Low Sulfur Fuel orCNG with OxCat Can Substantially Reduce Emissions BUT

Only If Done Well

Emission Standards & Compliance

Test timing

Vehicles

testedRequirement

Emission Test method

FullMode

Short Test

Before production

Representative of Production

(Certification)

Main test

Add On test

Type approv

al

Durability

At shipment

Production sampling

COP

After sale

In field In-use Test Rare Common

Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance (I/M)

Program Purpose:

To Assure that vehicle is properly maintained and used

Identify Dirtiest Vehicles & Get Them Repaired

General Attributes: Relatively short Relatively simple

Types Idle 2-Stage Idle Steady Speed

Loaded Transient Loaded

I/M Plays A Critical Role

Improved Vehicle MaintenanceDeterrent To TamperingDeterrent To MisfuelingPrimary Enforcement Mechanism For Other Strategies

Alternative Fuel RetrofitOther Retrofit

Pre-1981 1981-87 Post 19870

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

(g/km)CO

Before Repair After Repair

Results of the British Columbia I/M Program Audit

Transportation Planning & TDM Are Critically Important Public Transportation Alternatives Land Use Planning Road Pricing Other

Break TheViciousCircle