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Introduction to Ecosystem Services and Climate Change Beto BorgesDirector, Community and Markets ProgramForest Trends4 April 2011

1Ecosystems are the combined interactions of: Biological / living (plant, animal and micro-organism communities) components of environment and Physical / non-living components (air, water, soil and the basic elements and compounds of the environment)What Are Ecosystems?

Examples: Coral reefs Forests Deserts Tundra

Natural and modified ecosystems have positive and negative effects on the air, water and natural resources which generate benefits for human beings.What are Ecosystem Services?

The term ecosystem services came into widespread use in the ensuing dialogue and, formalizing the term in a 1997 publication, the Ecological Society of America explained that the term ecosystem services "refers to a wide range of conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and the species that are part of them, help sustain and fulfill human life." (Daily et al)

In short, they are the benefits that people obtain from ecosystems.

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Carbon sequestration & storage

Soil formation & fertilityPlant pollinationWatershed protection & regulation Pest & disease controlWild species habitat protectionNutrient CyclingTerrestrial Ecosystem ServicesAir quality 4

Carbon sequestration and storageWaste and Pollutant ProcessingSustainable FisheriesSafe and Healthy SeafoodCoastal Water qualityStorm and Hurricane Protection Seascape and Landscape BeautyMarine BiodiversitySandy BeachesStable CoastlinesMarine and Coastal Ecosystem Services5Ecosystems Services are the benefits that ecosystems provide, which include:

Supporting services: Functions that maintain all other services

Regulating services: Natural processes regulated by ecosystems

Provisioning services: Goods or products produced by ecosystems

Cultural services: Non-material benefits obtained from ecosystems

Categorizing Ecosystem Services EXAMPLES OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Supporting Services: Functions that maintain all other servicesNutrient cycling and dispersion Seed dispersalPrimary production

Regulating Services: Natural processes regulated by ecosystems

Air quality regulation Climate regulation Water regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Waste treatment Disease regulation Pest regulation Pollination Natural hazard regulation

Provisioning: Goods or products produced by ecosystems

Food Fiber Genetic Resources Bio chemicals Fresh Water

Cultural Services: Non-material benefits obtained from ecosystems

Spiritual and religious values Aesthetic values Recreation and ecotourism

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Categorizing Ecosystem Services This figure depicts the strength of linkages between categories of ecosystem services and components of human well-being that are commonly encountered, and includes indications of the extent to which it is possible for socioeconomic factors to mediate the linkage. (For example, if it is possible to purchase a substitute for a degraded ecosystem services, then there is a high potential for mediation.) The strength of the linkages and the potential for mediation differ in different ecosystems and regions. In addition to the influence of ecosystem services on human well-being depicted here, other factors including other environmental factors as well as economic, social, technological, and cultural factors influence human well-being, and ecosystems are in turn affected by changes in human well-being. (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment)

7Estimated value of ecosystem services is more than $33 trillion per year! (Compare this to global gross national product at only $18 trillion.)

Source: Costanza R et al (1997) The value of the worlds ecosystem services and natural capita. Nature. 387 (15 May 1997) pp. 253-260.

Value of Ecosystem ServicesStudy shows that 17 of the services had a value (late 1990s) of more than $33 trillion per year which is almost twice as much as the total global production. This created a lot of buzz around ecosystem services worldwide.

The map shows the value of ecosystem services per hectare in different regions. The dark red implies a very high value for ES in that region and white is no value.8Millennium Ecosystem Assessment concluded that 60% to 70% of ecosystem services are being degraded faster than they can recover.

Status of Ecosystem ServicesThe Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) was published in 2005 based on the work of 1,300 scientists from 95 countries

Global assessment of the health of the services provided by the natural environmentthe worlds ecosystem services

Specifically, downward trends with biomass fuel, genetic resources, bio-chemicals, freshwater, air quality regulation, regional and local climate regulation, erosion regulation, water purification and waste treatment, pest regulation, pollination, and natural hazard regulation9

Environmental GoodsEnvironmental ServicesOceansForestsCultivated / Agricultural Lands Lumber Wood Products Firewood

Purification of air Filtration of waterNutrient cycling Erosion & river siltation control Soil formation Generation/ renewal of soil fertility Wind breaks

Fish & Seafood

Climate regulation (through carbon sequestration, role of currents, gulf stream, etc.) Detoxification and decomposition of wastes

Crops (food & fiber)

Pollination of crops and natural vegetation Control of agricultural pests Moderation of temperature extremes

Ecosystem Services and the EconomyA Key Part of Industrys Operational Infrastructure10Ecosystem Services and the EconomyProduct InputsProduction Process InputsStable Business Operating ContextHealthy worker fundamentals (e.g., clean air, adequate amounts of water, food, etc.)Contributors to license to operateEnvironmental Goods food, freshwater, fuel, fiber

Regulating Services climate regulation, flood regulation, water filtration

Supporting Services nutrient cycling, soil formation

Cultural Services aesthetic, spiritual, educational, recreationalA Key Part of Industrys Operational Infrastructure

11 Environmental services are a core element of business infrastructure. So fundamental that they are often overlooked

These services include protection of coastal areas and key infrastructure, such as harbors, the regulation of reliable and sufficient flows of water, the regeneration of productive soil, and the carbon sequestration in plants and soil

Replacing these services is not always technically possible or financially feasible.Ecosystem Services and the EconomySource: BSR (2007) The New Markets for Environmental Services: A Corporate Managers Resource Guide to Trading in Air, Climate, Water, and Biodiversity. (www.bsr.org)

There is a growing global awareness of the services that natural ecosystems provide. Still, the value of these ecosystem services and the long term costs of their loss are rarely taken into account in decisions about how natural resources are used, or into calculating their cost. Because these day-to-day management decisions often focus only on short-term financial returns, the ecosystems that provide these services are often degraded, sometimes in ways that irreparably reduce ecosystem service production.

Fortunately, concern over the loss or damage to ecosystem services is driving innovation. Ecosystem service transactions are emerging around the world, with the goal of placing a financial value on the benefits that these services provide, in order to promote their maintenance.

12Historical lack of conceptual frameworks and scientific dataLack of clarity on environmental service-related property rights and lack of investment incentivesPerceptions of public sector responsibility for maintenance and restorationSubsidies and promotion of activities that undercut environmental servicesInvisibility of effects, as impacts are dispersed across time and geographies

Drivers of Todays Challenges

The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change1314

NASA http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/285744main_PIA11066_full.jpgThickness of the atmosphereSurrounding the Earth, there is a thin layer of gases called the atmosphere. The atmosphere is composed primarily of nitrogen and oxygen. 14

The Greenhouse EffectPart of the energy is reflected to outer space.The greenhouse gases trap part of the heat, sending it back to the Earths surface.Infrared energy from the sun passes through the atmosphereThe Earths surface is heated by the sun and reflects the heat back to outer space.The greenhouse effect maintains the average temperature of the Earth at approximately 15 oC.

The atmosphere reflects some of the suns energy back to outer space. It allows part of this energy to reach the earths surface, heating it.

The earth also reflects some of this heat back to outer space.

A very small percentage of the gases in the atmosphere - less than 1% - is a combination of gases collectively called greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, among others.

These greenhouse gases trap part of the suns energy and heat and reflect it back to the Earth.

This is a completely natural and beneficial phenomenon. The greenhouse effect maintains the average temperature of the Earth at approximately 15*C.15

Without the greenhouse effect, the world would be too cold with an average temperature of -18C!If the greenhouse effect didnt exist, the Earths average temperature would be -18*C.16

The Problem:Human activities are increasing the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. Less of the suns energy is able to escape which is causing the Earths temperature to increase.

GHGGHGGHGThe problem, then, is not the greenhouse gas effect itself, but the fact that human activities are increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Even though they make up a small percentage of the total amount of gases in the atmosphere, even a small change in the concentration of these gases can have a big effect.

This means that a higher percentage of the heat emitted from the sun become trapped in the atmosphere and are not able to escape, causing higher global temperatures.17

Sources of greenhouse gases:Sources: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, images from presentation by Ana Fortin.Industrial sources:Burning of fossil fuels and cement manufacturingLandfillsNatural gas productionElectricity transmission

Land use sources:Deforestation and forest firesWetland conversionRice paddiesLivestockUse of fertilizersBurning biomass18How quickly are greenhouse gas concentrations increasing?

Beginning of the industrial eraGreenhouse gas concentrations were relatively stable in the atmosphere before the industrial era began in the 1800s. When the Industrial Revolution began, humans began using more and more fossil fuels like oil and charcoal to power factories and cars, leading to a spike in greenhouse gas concentrations.19Where are the gases being emitted?Source: World Resources Institute's CAIT 4.0 database

Low emissions High emissionsHistorically, the United States has been the leading country in greenhouse gas emissions. China, India, Russia and Brazil are also big emitters.20

Where are the gases being emitted?This map is a different way to look at the world the bigger the country, the bigger its role in carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning, cement production and gas firing. Note that in this case the map does not include emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, so countries like Brazil which have high deforestation rates but low fossil fuel emissions are shown small on this map.21Emission Sources

Historically there has been a difference between developed and developing countries. The majority of greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries are from burning fossil fuels (shown in blue). While developing countries have a much higher percentage of emissions from land use change such as deforestation.22

Emission Sources in AfricaThis graph shows the 15 largest emitters of greenhouse gases in Africa. The bars are divided to show the difference in emissions from fossil fuels (black) and land use change (green). It is easy to see that in countries like South Africa, Egypt and Algeria, almost all of the greenhouse gas emissions are from burning fossil fuels. Meanwhile, Nigeria, the DRC and Zambia have higher emissions from land use change.23

Global Processes and EffectsSource: http://maps.grida.no/library/files/climate-change-global-processes-and-effects_002.jpgThis graphic shows the processes and effects of climate change.

In the orange/yellow circles we have the human activities which influence the enhanced greenhouse effect in gray.

The blue shows the main features of the climate that will be affected: global warming, the melting of ice caps, increased water temperature, precipitation changes, and increased salinity.

The red circles are major threats like sea level rise leading to environmental refugees, effects on farming and fishing which can lead to malnutrition and then famine, the possibility for diseases to spread, biodiversity loss, economic losses and casualties.24

Evidence of Climate Change in AfricaWe can already see evidence of and the effects of climate change in many regions across the globe, but particularly in Africa.

There have already been many deaths in Africa that are attributable to climate change. Many of the major killers such as diarrheal diseases, malnutrition, malaria and dengue are highly climate-sensitive and are expected to spread worsen as the climate changes. Areas with weak health infrastructure will be the least able to cope without assistance to prepare and respond.25Evidence of Climate Change in Africa

Source: http://blog.climatesecurity.org, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/melting-ice-on-mount-kilimanjaro-east-africa

Since 1912, Kilimanjaros ice fields have shrunk by about 80%. Though other factors may contribute to the ice melt, global warming, no doubt, plays a strong role as well. It is estimated that between 2015 and 2020 this ice field will completely disappear. Glaciers on the Ruwenzori Mountains of Uganda also decreased in size 50% between 1987 and 2003.

Close to 50 per cent of the glaciers in Africa, on the Rwenzori Mountains, Mount Kenya and Kilimanjaro have disappeared, while larger glaciers particularly on Kilimanjaro have been fragmented. Changes in glacier area and volume are being used as indicators for global warming and climate change.

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Evidence of Climate Change in AfricaSource: http://www.grida.no/_res/site/Image/series/vg-africa/graphics/14-lakechad.jpgLake Chad is now half the size that it was 35 years ago and Lake Victoria and Lake Tanganyika are also shrinking.27Future Predictions

http://eos-webster.sr.unh.edu/data_guides/ci_dg.jsp;jsessionid=0F353EDC67B8647D2AC67ACD10648037

Atmospheric CO2 was stable at about 280 ppmfor almost 10,000 years until 1750. Many scientists believe we need to reverse this trend and stabilize emissions at 350 ppm to avoid significant impacts on humans. But current CO2 levels are at 391.76 parts per million.

A range of scenarios exists which predict increases of up to 1100 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere by 2100.

An increase to 550 ppm would mean a temperature increase of approximately 3*C.

800 ppm (predicted in scenario A2) would mean a temperature increase of approximately 4*C.

Any one of these scenarios could have drastic effects on life as we know it.28

Future Effects of Climate ChangeThis graphic shows that the effects of climate change will not be the same across Africa. Some countries will receive less rain which may lead to desertification while others may face flooding due to increased rains. The spread of malaria, threats to food security and reduced freshwater availability are definitely worrying due to their effects on human health.29Water Scarcity

Source: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/water_availability_in_africaWater resources are inextricably linked with climate, so the prospect of global climate change has serious implications for water resources and regional development (Riebsame et al., 1995). This graphic shows water availability per capita in cubic metres for selected countries in Africa in 1990, with projected data for 2025. It also shows which countries were affected by water stress, water scarcity and water vulnerability in 1990, with projected data for 2025. This resource also includes a graphic showing which African countries are expected to be affected by freshwater stress and by freshwater scarcity in 2025.

30Decreases in Crop Production

Source: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/projected-changes-in-cereal-productivity-in-africa-due-to-climate-change-current-climate-to-2080Lack of water will likely lead to decreases in crop production across the continent.

31Loss of Biodiversity

Source: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/african-wildlife-under-threat-from-climate-changeMany species throughout Africa would be vulnerable or may even go extinct because of climate change.32So what can we do? Suffer

Adapt: cultivate in different months, use different clothing

Mitigate: reduce the size of the problem (PES, alternative energy sources, etc)We have seen here some of the effects that climate change can have on human life. These are just predictions, however, and things could be even worse.

As with any other situation that you may face in life, we have three options.

We can suffer through without changing any of our current routines or practices. This would likely lead to the deaths of thousands.

We can adapt. In fact, many rural farmers are already finding that they must adapt to climate change across Africa. As rains begin earlier or later, farmers are beginning to respond to these changes in order to ensure a healthy crop production.

Finally we can mitigate. Payments for ecosystem services, especially for carbon, which we will be discussing today is a mechanism through which we can work to mitigate the effects of climate change.33Carbon Sequestration

This is because forests, oceans and the soil are able to take the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it for an extended period of time. This process is called carbon sequestration.

Before the Industrial Revolution, the world was in equilibrium and these sinks were able to store the same amount of carbon that was emitted from natural processes. Now, however, humans are emitting more carbon than they can sequester.

Changing some of our current practices, however, can increase the sequestration ability of these ecosystems, however.

For instance, implementing different agriculture techniques such as no till agriculture can improve the amount of carbon that soils hold. Reforestation and halting deforestation will also ensure that carbon is not emitted into the atmosphere.34What would happen if we could give ecosystem services (such as carbon sequestration) a financial value in our economic systems?

What would this look like and how would it work?This is exactly what Sara will be discussing in the next presentation.35Forest Trendswww.forest-trends.org

Ecosystem Marketplacewww.ecosystemmarketplace.com

Katoomba Group www.katoombagroup.org

Beto Borgesbborges@forest-trends.org

For more Information:Thank you!36