introduction to machine learning

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1/ 44 Vishal Kumar Jaiswal Introduction Machine Learning Fundamentals Inductive learning Supervised Learning Unsupervised Learning Reinforcement Learning Survey Method Mathematical Preliminaries Learning Algorithms Entropy Ensemble Learning Method Machine Learning using Python Theory and Implementation Vishal Kumar Jaiswal M.Tech CST Department , IIEST Shibpur June 18, 2016 Summer Internship 2016

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1/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Machine Learning using PythonTheory and Implementation

Vishal Kumar Jaiswal

M.TechCST Department , IIEST Shibpur

June 18, 2016

Summer Internship 2016

2/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Table of Contents

1 IntroductionMachine Learning

2 FundamentalsInductive learningSupervised LearningUnsupervised LearningReinforcement Learning

3 Survey Method4 Mathematical Preliminaries5 Learning Algorithms6 Entropy7 Ensemble Learning Method

3/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

What to expect

You’ll learn by doing,Bring machine learning to life using specified use case,Identify financial fraud by mining email datasets toidentify writer of email.

4/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Why machine learning?

Automating automationGetting computers to program themselvesWriting software is the bottleneckLet the data do the work instead!Can help in solve the most practical society impactingproblems.

5/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Comparison with traditional programming

ComputerData

Program

Output

Traditional Programming:-

ComputerData

Output

Program

Machine Learning:-

6/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Machine learning

Building computational artifacts that learn over timebased on experience.Employed in computing tasks where designing andprogramming explicit algorithms is infeasible.Build a model from example inputs in order to makedata-driven predictions or decisions expressed as outputsrather than following strictly static program instructions.

7/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Inductive Learning

Process of learning by example - where a system tries toinduce a general rule from a set of observed instances i.e.specific to general rule.

1 Discrete:- Classification2 Continuous:- Regression

Constructing class definitions is called Inductive learning.Note:Artificial Intelligence is based on deductive learning.

7/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Inductive Learning

Process of learning by example - where a system tries toinduce a general rule from a set of observed instances i.e.specific to general rule.

1 Discrete:- Classification2 Continuous:- Regression

Constructing class definitions is called Inductive learning.Note:Artificial Intelligence is based on deductive learning.

8/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Classification of Machine Learning

Based on feedback available to learning system, we categorizemachine learning algorithms in following categories:-

Supervised learningUnsupervised learningReinforcement learning

9/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Machine Learning: Type 1

Supervised learningFunction approximation from input and output pairs (trainingdataset) i.e. generalization.

10/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Supervised Learning

ClassificationAssign,to a particular input, the name of class to which itbelongs.

11/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Classification: An Example

Spam filtering and Object detection

12/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Supervised learning

RegressionPredicting a numerical value for input dataset.

13/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Regression

stock market prediction and weather forcasting

14/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Machine learning: Type 2

Unsupervised learningWithout any examples, summerize or describe data just bylooking at the input.

e.g. naming all animals dog by a child. Describe people basedon ethinicity like Punjabi, Bangali, South Indian etc.

14/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Machine learning: Type 2

Unsupervised learningWithout any examples, summerize or describe data just bylooking at the input.

e.g. naming all animals dog by a child. Describe people basedon ethinicity like Punjabi, Bangali, South Indian etc.

15/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Unsupervised Learning

ClusteringDiscovering structure in data e.g. finding similiar images ingoogle images, Collaborative filtering of news feed content byfacebook.

16/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Clustering: An Example

Google news

17/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Machine learning: Type 3

Reinforcement learningLearn how to behave based on delayed feedback from theenvironment.

e.g. Figuring out mistakes after wrong answer in test seriesduring preparation and correcting your bias afterwards.

Note:1 All are supplement of each other, not an alternative.2 Fundamentally different, but trying to achieve the same

goal.

17/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Machine learning: Type 3

Reinforcement learningLearn how to behave based on delayed feedback from theenvironment.

e.g. Figuring out mistakes after wrong answer in test seriesduring preparation and correcting your bias afterwards.

Note:1 All are supplement of each other, not an alternative.2 Fundamentally different, but trying to achieve the same

goal.

17/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Machine learning: Type 3

Reinforcement learningLearn how to behave based on delayed feedback from theenvironment.

e.g. Figuring out mistakes after wrong answer in test seriesduring preparation and correcting your bias afterwards.

Note:1 All are supplement of each other, not an alternative.2 Fundamentally different, but trying to achieve the same

goal.

18/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Survey Methodology

Collect data for machine learning by conducting survey orstoring sensor output data stream.Preprocess data to remove inconsistencies in it.Before believing a survey result, check:

1 How many people or situations are surveyed.2 Who is surveyed.3 How survey is conducted.

Train and test machine learning algortihm on different setsof data, otherwise overfitting will happen.

19/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Bayes’ Theorem

Conditional ProbabilityProbability of event obtained with additional information thatsome other event has already occurred.

P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B)

P(A)

Assumption: We are dealing with sequential events and the newinformation is used to revise the probability of previous events.

20/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Bayes’ Theorem

Prior probabilityInitial probability value obtained before any additionalinformation is provided.

Posterior ProbabilityThe probability value that has been revised by using additionalinformation that is obtained later.

21/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Bayes’ Theorem

DefinitionThe probability of event A, given that event B hassubsequently occurred, is

P(A|B) =P(A) · P(B|A)

[P(A) · P(B|A)] + [P(A) · P(B|A)]

22/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Bayes’ Rule: An example

A specific cancer, C , incurs in 1% of population, P(C)=0.01Pathological Test:Probability of positive test result, if you have C ,P(Pos|C)=90% (Sensitivity)Probability of negative test result, if you don’t have C ,P(Pos|C)=90% (Specificity) So, find out

Probability of having cancer if test positive

22/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Bayes’ Rule: An example

A specific cancer, C , incurs in 1% of population, P(C)=0.01Pathological Test:Probability of positive test result, if you have C ,P(Pos|C)=90% (Sensitivity)Probability of negative test result, if you don’t have C ,P(Pos|C)=90% (Specificity) So, find out

Probability of having cancer if test positive

23/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = 0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1

All People

C

C+Pos Pos but not C

No C Test Neg.

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

24/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Prior Probabilities:P(C) = 0.01 P(¬C) = 0.99P(Pos|C) = ‘0.9P(Neg |¬C) = 0.9 P(Pos|¬C) = 0.1Joint Probability:P(C ,Pos) = P(C)× P(Pos|C) = 0.009P(¬C ,Pos) = P(¬C)× P(Pos|¬C) = 0.099Normalize:P(Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos) + P(C ,Pos) = 0.108

Posterior: P(C |Pos) = P(C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.083

P(¬C |Pos) = P(¬C ,Pos)P(Pos) = 0.917

So, Total Probability=1

25/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Naive Bayes Method

Supervised learning algorithm based on Bayes’ theorem.The ”naive” assumption of independence between everypair of features.works quite well for many real-world applications. e.g.document classification and spam filtering.extremely fastdecent classifier, but bad estimator.

25/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Naive Bayes Method

Supervised learning algorithm based on Bayes’ theorem.The ”naive” assumption of independence between everypair of features.works quite well for many real-world applications. e.g.document classification and spam filtering.extremely fastdecent classifier, but bad estimator.

25/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Naive Bayes Method

Supervised learning algorithm based on Bayes’ theorem.The ”naive” assumption of independence between everypair of features.works quite well for many real-world applications. e.g.document classification and spam filtering.extremely fastdecent classifier, but bad estimator.

25/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Naive Bayes Method

Supervised learning algorithm based on Bayes’ theorem.The ”naive” assumption of independence between everypair of features.works quite well for many real-world applications. e.g.document classification and spam filtering.extremely fastdecent classifier, but bad estimator.

25/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Naive Bayes Method

Supervised learning algorithm based on Bayes’ theorem.The ”naive” assumption of independence between everypair of features.works quite well for many real-world applications. e.g.document classification and spam filtering.extremely fastdecent classifier, but bad estimator.

25/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Naive Bayes Method

Supervised learning algorithm based on Bayes’ theorem.The ”naive” assumption of independence between everypair of features.works quite well for many real-world applications. e.g.document classification and spam filtering.extremely fastdecent classifier, but bad estimator.

26/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Gaussian Naive Bayes

DefinitionThe liklihood of features is:

P(xi |y) =1√

2πσ2y

exp(−(xi − µ)2

2σ2y

)

27/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Anupam Rahul

.1.8

.1 .5.2

.3

LOVEDEAL LIFE LIFEDEALLOVE

LOVE LIFE!

P (Anupam) = 0.5

P (Rahul) = 0.5

LOVE LIFE!

LIFE DEAL

Guess: (Owner of email)

CalculateP( ” LIFE DEAL ”| Anupam) 0.8× 0.1× 0.5P( ”LIFE DEAL” | Rahul) 0.2× 0.3× 0.5

27/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Anupam Rahul

.1.8

.1 .5.2

.3

LOVEDEAL LIFE LIFEDEALLOVE

LOVE LIFE!

P (Anupam) = 0.5

P (Rahul) = 0.5

LOVE LIFE!

LIFE DEAL

Guess: (Owner of email)

CalculateP( ” LIFE DEAL ”| Anupam) 0.8× 0.1× 0.5P( ”LIFE DEAL” | Rahul) 0.2× 0.3× 0.5

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

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UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Anupam Rahul

.1.8

.1 .5.2

.3

LOVEDEAL LIFE LIFEDEALLOVE

LOVE LIFE!

P (Anupam) = 0.5

P (Rahul) = 0.5

LOVE LIFE!

LIFE DEAL

Guess: (Owner of email)

CalculateP( ” LIFE DEAL ”| Anupam) 0.8× 0.1× 0.5P( ”LIFE DEAL” | Rahul) 0.2× 0.3× 0.5

27/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Anupam Rahul

.1.8

.1 .5.2

.3

LOVEDEAL LIFE LIFEDEALLOVE

LOVE LIFE!

P (Anupam) = 0.5

P (Rahul) = 0.5

LOVE LIFE!

LIFE DEAL

Guess: (Owner of email)

CalculateP( ” LIFE DEAL ”| Anupam) 0.8× 0.1× 0.5P( ”LIFE DEAL” | Rahul) 0.2× 0.3× 0.5

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

Supervised Learning

UnsupervisedLearning

ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Support Vector Machine

Supervised learning used for classification, regressionanalysis and outlier detection.Often used as a black box and for comparative study.Support Vectors are set of frontier datapoints of trainingdataset (may be linear).Effective in high dimensional space.

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

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ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

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Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Support Vectors

Maximum margin

Optimal Hyperplane

Pictorial representation of support vector machine

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

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MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

# Support vector classification from sklearn modulefrom sklearn.svm import SVC# Kernel: default: ’rbf’, alternativess: ’linear’,’poly’,’rbf’ etc.clf=SVC(kernel="linear",gamma=1000.0,C=1)#Fit SVM model to according to the training dataclf.fit(features_train,labels_train)# Perform classification on test setpred=clf.predict(features_test)

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

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SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Decision Trees

Supervised algorithmMost popular, simple and extremely robust.Non-linear decision making with simple linear surfaces.

Disadvantage:over-complex trees that do not generalize well ondatapoints(overfitting). Pruning is required.Learning optimal decision tree is NP-complete.

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

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MathematicalPreliminaries

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Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Wind

Sun

Weather pattern for Windsurf

Decision trees allows us to use multiple linear boundaries toseperate two non-linearly seperable regions.

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

FundamentalsInductive learning

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ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Wind

Sun

Weather pattern for Windsurf

Decision trees allows us to use multiple linear boundaries toseperate two non-linearly seperable regions.

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

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ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

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Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Wind

Sun

Multiple linear decision boundary for weather pattern

Windy

Yes No

Sunny

Yes No

Symbolic representation of decision tree for weather data

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Classification

DecisionTreeClassifier is a class capable of performingmulti-class classification on a dataset.from sklearn import treeX=[[0,0],[1,1]]Y=[0,1]clf=tree.DecisionTreeClassifier(min_samples_split=50)clf=clf.fit(X,Y)clf.predict([[2.,2.]])

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

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ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

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Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Entropy

DefinitionMeasure of impurity in a bunch of examples.

Entropy,H(P) =∑−Pi log2Pi

Controls how a decision tree decides to split the data, e.g.

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

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Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Information Gain

DefinitionThe change in information entropy H from a prior state to astate that takes some information as given:

IG(T , a) = H(T )− H(T |a)

Decision trees tries to maximize information gain.

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EnsembleLearningMethod

K Nearest Neighbors Classification Algorithm

k closest training examples in the feature space areprovided as input.Classification is done by a majority vote of neighbors.The object is assigned to the class most common amongits k neighbors.

Illustration of K nearest neighbors

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K Nearest Neighbors Classification Example

# Support vector classification from sklearn modulefrom sklearn.svm import SVC# Kernel: default: ’rbf’, alternativess: ’linear’,’poly’,’rbf’ etc.clf=SVC(kernel="linear",gamma=1000.0,C=1)#Fit SVM model to according to the training dataclf.fit(features_train,labels_train)# Perform classification on test setpred=clf.predict(features_test)

39/ 44

Vishal KumarJaiswal

IntroductionMachine Learning

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ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Ensemble Learning Method

Supervised Learning MethodologyUses multiple learning methods to obtain betterperformance.Prediction requires more computational overhead.Some unsupervised learning methods include consensusclustering and anamoly detection.

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SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

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Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Random Forest

Ensemble learning methodAvoids overfitting of decision trees by building multipledeep decision treesParameters include number of estimators.

Ensemble Learning Methodology

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Vishal KumarJaiswal

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ReinforcementLearning

SurveyMethod

MathematicalPreliminaries

LearningAlgorithms

Entropy

EnsembleLearningMethod

Adaptive Boosting, Adaboost

Best known classifierAdaptive in the sense that subsequent weak learners aretweaked in favor of those instances misclassified byprevious classifiers.Sensitive to noisy data and outliersAdaboostClassifier

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EnsembleLearningMethod

Numerical e.g. Salary info.Categorical e.g. Job TitleTime Series e.g. time stamps on emailsText e.g. Contents of emails

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References

Bayes’ Theorem.

UD262: Machine Learning.

Ali Farhadi.Cse446: Machine learning.University of Washington.

Sebastian Thrun Katie Malone.Ud102: Intro to machine learning.Udacity.

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EnsembleLearningMethod

Thank You