introduction to network meta-analysis to... · 2019-01-18 · an introduction to network...
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An Introduction toNetwork Meta-Analysis
January 17, 2018
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Shaun Abeysinghe, PhDSenior Director, Data Analytics and Design Strategy
Emma Hawe, MScSenior Director, Data Analytics and Design Strategy
Claire Ainsworth, MScSenior Statistician, Data Analytics and Design Strategy
Meet Our Team
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• Understand terms such as direct and indirect comparisons, mixed-treatment comparisons, and network meta analyses (NMAs) and why they are used
• Know the difference between analytic approaches such as fixed and random effects models, and frequentist and Bayesian methods
• Understand concepts, assumptions and limitations of NMAs, such as heterogeneity, inconsistency, and bias
Learning Objectives
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NMA: The Big Picture!
• Many treatment options for the same indication
• Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of A vs. B vs. C vs. D almost never exist
• Instead RCTs compare A vs. P, B vs. P etc.
• How do we determine which treatment is “best”?
Medicine will advance more within the next 10 years than it did in the last 100 years
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Why Do We Conduct NMAs?
• Each year, more than 1,000,000 articles are published in more than 20,000 journals.
• In 2017, 343 publications of RCTs in schizophrenia in PubMed– Almost one per day!
• NMAs valuable tool for:– Practitioners, researchers, and
decision-makers
– Supporting all stages of a product’s life cycle
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What is Meta-Analysis?
Individual study results
Study 1
Study 2
Study 3
Study 4
Study 5
Networkmeta-analysis
Overalleffect
• Of treatments and between treatments for outcomes of interest
• Of other characteristics on outcomes and treatment effects
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Mixed
What is Meta-Analysis?
Direct meta-analysisvs. indirect meta-analysis
• Mixed treatment comparisons– a generalization of indirect comparisons with more than two (or multiple pairs of) treatments being compared indirectly
• Indirect comparison– when only two (or one pair of) treatments are being compared indirectly
Treatment C
Treatment B
Direct
Indi
rect
Treatment A
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What Is NMA?
A systematic method for pooling the evidence from independent sources, especially randomized, controlled trials (RCTs)
Figure adapted from: https://www.ispor.org/workpaper/interpreting-indirect-treatment-comparison-and-network-meta-analysis-studies-for-decision-making.pdf
A
D
EC
B
FG
AC
BA
D
EC
B
FG
A
D
EC
BA
C
BA
C
B
Networks of evidence
Definitions
Anchored Indirect Treatment Comparison (or ‘Adjusted’ ITC) Mixed-Treatment Comparison
Network Meta-analysis (> 2 studies)
1
1 ≥ 1
≥ 2
Closed loops in network: combination of direct and indirect evidence
E
D D
AAAA A
EC
FE
FG
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Who is faster, the red or blue runner?
The red runner finishes in 9.75 sec
The blue runner finishes in 10 sec
The green runner finishes in 10.25 sec
The green runner finishes in 10.75 sec
Tuesday afternoon
Saturday morning
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Conducting an NMA
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2. Extract study-level information and conducta feasibility assessment
3. Plan the meta-analysis for each endpoint and extract arm-level data.
1. Develop systematic review protocol, conduct literature searches, and screen articles.
4. Perform heterogeneity and inconsistency analyses, perform NMA.
5. Report findings of the NMA.
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Frequentist Inference Bayesian InferenceParameter estimates based on sample from population with assumed distribution
Parameter estimates drawn from posterior distribution which is product of prior and likelihood function
Alternative Modelling Approaches
Study 1 Study 2 Study 3 Study 4
True Treatment Effect
Study 1 Study 2 Study 3 Study 4
True Treatment Effect
Distribution
Fixed Effect Random Effect
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Exchangeability, heterogeneity and inconsistency
A Study 1 BA Study 2 BA Study 3 BA Study 4 B
Adults
A
B C
Effe
ctiv
enes
s }B
A
Age
• Key assumption underlying NMA is exchangeability
• Heterogeneity – Differences between duplicate evidence for same comparison• Consistency – direct and indirect evidence in agreement
A
B
C
A
A Study 5 CA Study 6 CA Study 7 CA Study 8 C
Children
C
AA
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Example
Study name Treatment n N
1 A 200 8001 B 210 4001 C 680 8002 A 40 1602 B 22 403 A 95 3703 C 310 3624 A 104 3904 D 2000 33005 A 85 3155 D 40 956 A 94 3486 B 200 3857 A 170 3477 E 300 3868 A 70 1368 E 180 230
B
E
C1
2
A
3
D 2
3
Network for response
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Example: Placebo response rate
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Response for A ± 95% credible intervals
Stud
y nu
mbe
r
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Example: Heterogeneity
B
E
CStudy 1
D
Study 1,3
AStudy 7, 8
Study 1,2,6
Study 4, 5
A
C
A
C
17.00 (13.22, 21.86)
17.26 (11.86, 21.05)
17.08 (13.86, 21.05)
1
3
RE Model
11.02 13.46 16.44 20.09 24.53 29.96
Odds ratio
C vs. A
A A
D D
4.23 (3.34, 5.35)
1.97 (1.22, 3.17)
2.97 (1.41, 6.28)
4
5
RE Model
1.00 1.65 2.72 4.48 7.39
Odds ratio
D vs. A
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Example: Inconsistency
C C
B B
A
0.80 40.00
Study
C vs. B
DirectIndirectNetwork
P-value
5.1 (1.2, 21)5.6 (0.89, 31)5.3 (3, 8.9)
Odds Ratio(95% Crl)
B
E
CStudy 1
DA
Study 1, 3
Study 7, 8
Study 1,2,6
Study 5
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0.5 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 50.00.5 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 50.0
Example: Forest plot and pairwise grid
A 1 0.31(0.2, 0.48)
0.06(0.04, 0.09)
0.3(0.2, 0.55)
0.28(0.17, 0.46)
B 3.24(2.15, 5.01) 1 0.19
(0.11, 0.33)0.97
(0.55, 2.05)0.9
(0.48, 1.75)
C 17(11, 27)
5.3(3.01, 9) 1 5.12
(2.78, 11)4.77
(2.45, 9.6)
D 3.34(1.8, 5.02)
1.04(0.49, 1.81)
0.2(0.09, 0.36) 1 0.93
(0.41, 1.76)
E 3.57(2.15, 5.8)
1.11(0.57, 2.09)
0.21(0.1, 0.41)
1.08(0.57, 2.42) 1
A B C D E
B
C
D
E
Frequentist MTC Bayesian MTC
Odds ratio for response relative to A ± 95% credible intervals (log scale)Endpoint: Response, Patient population: Overall, MTC: Random effects, Covariates: None
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Example: Predicted rates and rankogram
C
E
D
B
A
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.316 (0.234, 0.411)
0.599 (0.453, 0.731)
0.604 (0.427, 0.737)
0.622 (0.46, 0.76)
0.888(0.808, 0.936)
Predicted response rates from Bayesian MTC
Cumulative rankograms for treatment regimens from Bayesian MTCA B C D
E
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2.0 4.0
2.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 4.0
Cum
ulat
ive
prob
abili
ty o
f eac
h ra
nk
ORR ± 95% credible intervalsEndpoint: Response, Patient population: Overall, MTC: Random effects, Covariates: None
RankEndpoint: Response, Patient population: Overall, MTC: Random effects, Covariates: None
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• Provides an approach to collectively consider available evidence and provide comparative efficacy and safety between treatments
• Important considerations• Limitations• Evolving field
Conclusion: NMAs
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Thank YouQuestions?
Claire Ainsworth [email protected] Abeysinghe [email protected] Hawe [email protected]