introduction to polling and behavior change steve …...•fielded dec 2015 –jan 2016...
TRANSCRIPT
Communications Workgroup Summer Retreat
July 11, 2017
Introduction to Polling and Behavior Change
Steve RaabePresident, OpinionWorks, LLC
Behavior ChangeBehavior Change
Starts
with Listening
OpinionWorks Credentials
• Measure perceptions, behaviors• Random samples, focus groups
– The Baltimore Sun polling– University of Delaware
• Ag/Residential response to Water Fee
– Chesapeake Bay Trust• Extensive work assessing stewardship
– City of Dayton, Ohio• Comprehensive survey of resident attitudes
– West Virginia Department of Health• Barriers to cancer screening for low-income women
– Virginia Cooperative Extension• Testing affinity for a sustainable lawn care program
Research Tools:
Quantitative
Surveys
31% 38% 12% 5% 14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Not sure
17% disapprove69% approve
Governor’s Approval Rating
Maryland Registered Voters
OpinionWorksJan 19-30, 2017
“Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly
disapprove of the job Larry Hogan is doing as Governor of Maryland?”
• 2,001 randomly selected adults statewide
• ± 2.2% maximum sampling error, 95% confidence
• Fielded Dec 2015 – Jan 2016
• Supervised, live interviewers; landline and cell
• 18-minute interview (!) on average
• Deep look at attitudes
• Update surveys conducted 2008, 2010
Research Tools
Random Sample Telephone Survey
Attitudes about Bay Restoration
Level of Concern about Problems
“Do you consider each of the following to be a very serious problem, somewhat serious
problem, not much of a problem, or not a problem at all?”
Very Serious + Somewhat Serious Problem
26%
26%
32%
40%
42%
44%
61%
17%
30%
32%
26%
31%
30%
26%
Lead paint/toxins in your home or neighborhood
Extreme weather events
Sprawl or poorly planned growth/development
Climate change
Air pollution
Loss of habitat, such as wetlands and forests
Water pollution in rivers, streams and the Bay
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Climate change has
risen slightly relative
to other concerns
since 2010.
Attitudes about Bay Restoration
Why is Water Protection so Important?
“Water = Life”
Research Tools
Online Survey
Research Tools:
Qualitative
Interviews
Research Objective:
Encourage constituents and external audiences,
from their own unique perspectives,
to identify what compelling new possibilities could
result from the AHS capital campaign.
Research Method
Focus Groups
October 12
6 groups: 4 Staff & 2 Volunteer
Golden Valley
75-minute sessions
Professionally facilitated: Kathy Flament
Research Method
Focus Groups
How We Listen:
1. Consensus first
2. Animating concepts: Tie to inner, emotional drives
3. Findings often affirming, not surprising
Research Method
Focus Groups
Topics:• Impressions of AHS
• Opportunities offered by the capital campaign
• Brainstorming programs and features
The Chesapeake
Bay
Report Card Best Practices
Research Objectives
1. Evaluate existing report cards for how well they engage people and foster stewardship.
2. Test:– Report card content– Layout and design– Maps, graphs, images– Distribution channels
3. Share this work.
Report Card Best Practices
Focus Group Method
• 2 Audiences– General public– Members & volunteers
• 3 Locations– Urban (Baltimore City)– Suburban (Near Annapolis)– Rural (Eastern Shore/Chestertown)
• 120-minute sessions, professionally facilitated
• 7 report cards tested
Report Card Best Practices
Clear and Visual Grades
• Show me the bottom line.• What is the trend?• Letter grades yes. Number grades no.
Report Card Best Practices
Show Me What I Can Do
• Link actions directly to an indicator.• One or two actions, not 10!
Too many choices = Overwhelmed = Inaction
Report Card Best Practices
Tone: Warm, Inviting, Aspirational
• The public knows the water is sick.
• Rather, invite them in.
• Appeal to human nature.
Report Card Best Practices
Acknowledge Non-Traditional Partners
General public readers appreciate acknowledgement of local constituencies.
Report Card Best Practices
Use Common Language
• Avoid “turbidity,” “DO,” and their ilk.
• Or take pains to explain them, every time you use them.
• People read digitally, not analog.
• Use short sentences.
• Find an editor. Test it with neighbors.
Report Card Best Practices
Clean and Uncluttered Appearance
Not this:
Influencing Behavior:
Community Based
Social Marketing
Credit: Nancy R. Lee, University of Washington & Puget Sound Partnership
Adapted from Everett Rogers, Jay Kassirer, Mike Rothschild, Dave Ward, Kristen Cooley
Resistant
16%
Credit: Nancy R. Lee, University of Washington & Puget Sound Partnership
Adapted from Everett Rogers, Jay Kassirer, Mike Rothschild, Dave Ward, Kristen Cooley
Traditional Public Education
• Websites
• Brochures
• Community meetings
Compulsory Actions
• Regulations
• Fees & Fines
• Legal action
Social Marketing Tools
Reaching the Help Me Group
Example Tool: Prompts
• Peel-off sticker
• Refrigerator magnet
Example Tool: Pledge
“Free Upgrade”
A/B Test:A. FloodingB. Water quality
50% of homes visited signed the pledge
Case Study:
To increase the adoption
of wetlands restoration
on agricultural lands
in keeping with
the Chesapeake Bay Agreement
Wetlands Research Audience:
• Agricultural landowners
• 40+ acres
• Not enrolled in wetlands restoration program
• Targeted counties
• Coastal plain to Piedmont
• Good infrastructure and other efforts in place
“Midstream” Stakeholders:
• Service providers to the agricultural landowners
• County agricultural service centers
Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration
Landowners do not know how to start the process, or where to go for information.
Mistrust of government agencies.
Loss of control over what happens on my land.
Strong preference for peer-to-peer validation, at the expense of many other messengers.
Significant privacy concerns.
Smaller farms challenged because they do not want to give up limited tillable land.
“Wetland” is not a positive term, yet it is used extensively in program literature and parlance.
Heavy reliance on postal communication, which introduces limitations on outreach.
Very busy people; hard to reach.
Don’t want people showing up on their land unannounced.
Perceived inflexibility of these programs.
Fear that the land will be out of production forever; may affect future sale price or next generation of landowners.
Mosquitos.
Loss of income.
Variability of crop prices introduces uncertainty.
Landowners’ prevailing view that all land must be “useful.”
Landowners are not being approached with this information.
Very uneven knowledge about program availability, and uneven commitment to selling these programs, among local ag service providers and other advocates.
Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration
Barriers to Adopting Wetlands Programs
1. Lack of information/advocacy
2. Privacy and trust concerns
3. Financial uncertainty
4. Extreme need for flexibility
5. Audience is hard to reach
Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration
Barriers to Adopting Wetlands Programs
1. Water impairment (Delmarva)
1A. Waterfowl Habitat (Delmarva)
1. Erosion/Flash flooding (PA)
2. Encroaching development
Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration
Underlying Concerns of the Audience
3.34
3.37
3.38
3.40
3.47
3.54
3.58
3.72
State Dept of Ag
Farm neighbors
NRCS
Ducks Unlimited
FSA
Extension office
Soil Conservation District
Family members
2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
Level of Trust in Information
1-5 scale; Top 8
“Please indicate how much you would trust information from each of these organizations and individuals about preservation
and restoration of natural areas on your land.” (5-point scale of trust.)
2.63
2.80
2.95
2.97
3.08
3.08
3.17
State Dept of Environment
Agricultural retailers
Chesapeake Bay Trust
Chesapeake Wildlife Heritage
Private ag consultants
U.S. Fish & Wildlife
The Nature Conservancy
2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
Level of Trust in Information
1-5 scale; Second Tier
“Please indicate how much you would trust information from each of these organizations and individuals about preservation
and restoration of natural areas on your land.” (5-point scale of trust.)
Landowner Attitudes Towards Wetland Restoration
Critical Connection
Rural
Landowner
Trusted
Specialist
This conversation is critical to:
Building comfort
Answering questions
Assessing alternatives
Photos Courtesy Chesapeake Bay Program
Chesapeake Bay
Stewardship
Indicator
Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement10 broad goals for Bay restoration
Stewardship Outcome
“Increase the number and diversity of trained and mobilized citizen volunteers with the knowledge and skills needed to enhance
the health of their local watersheds.”
Individual Citizen Actions and Behaviors
Volunteerism/ Collective Community Action
Community Leaders/ Champions
Citizen Stewardship FrameworkIncreasing citizen actions for watershed health
Increasingly Environmentally Literate Population (Elit Goal)
Kn
ow
ledg
e & skills
Why Measure Stewardship?– Track progress in engaging the public
– Design social marketing campaigns for BMP adoption and behavior change
– Improve strategic communications to build public support for Bay restoration work
– Prioritize investments in citizen-led action
– Improve local decision-making
Stewardship BehaviorMeasurement Criteria
1. Involves individual decision-making
2. Is repetitive and can be tracked over time
3. Can be broadly adoptedA. Not just by experts
B. Not pre-emergent
4. Has an impact on water health
5. And/or will engage the public
1. Choose the Right Behavior
Impact of the Behavior on Water Quality
x
Penetration (Level of Adoption) in the Community
x
Likelihood the Public will Adopt the Behavior
The Social Marketing Process
Choosing the Right Behavior to Influence
Measured Behaviors• Pet waste (2: on property/off property)
• Leaves/Lawn clippings (2)
• Litter (2: drop/pick-up)
• Fats, grease/Medicines down the drain (2)
• Fertilizer use/keep off hard surfaces (2)
• Pesticide/Herbicide use (2)
• Conservation landscaping
• Rain garden installation
• Septic system
• Tree planting
• Downspout redirect
• Rain barrel/Connected, emptied (2)
• Water conservation
2017 Baseline
All states statistically
significant
N=5,200
VA 1,000 (±3.1%)
MD 1,000 (±3.1%)
PA 1,000 (±3.1%)
DC 800 (±3.5%)
WV 600 (±4.0%)
NY 400 (±4.9%)
DE 400 (±4.9%)
Citizen Stewardship IndicatorSampling Methodology
Fielded March – May 201713-minute interview
Wireless and LandlineSpanish language interviewing
What This Survey Tool Can Do Measure and track Stewardship progress.
Inform smart behavior selection for practitioners.
Level of Adoption x Likelihood x Impact
Segment data by major jurisdiction, demographic.
Be a resource for other Bay Program priorities: Access, Diversity.
47% 19% 10% 11% 12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neutral Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
23% disagree66% agree
Polluted water affects me personally.
Level of Agreement
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
37% 34% 20% 5% 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neutral Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
9% disagree71% agree
I want to do more to help make local
creeks, rivers, and lakes healthier.
Level of Agreement
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
17% 18% 13% 16% 35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neutral Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
51% disagree35% agree
My actions contribute to water pollution
where I live.
Level of Agreement
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
43%
45%
46%
70%
71%
71%
86%
90%
19%
18%
23%
14%
8%
6%
4%
22%
22%
19%
11%
9%
4%
3%
13%
12%
9%
2%
4%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
29%
2%
7%
2%
1%
Fertilize lawn
Use herbicides
Use pesticides
Downspouts drain tohard surfaces
Oil/grease down drain
Grass clippings ontohard surfaces
Medicine down drain
Toss litter
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Never/No Seldom Sometimes Usually/Frequently Always/Very Frequently/Yes Not sure
Negative Behaviors
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
22%
34%
40%
50%
53%
73%
19%
14%
7%
38%
16%
6%
10%
7%
5%
11%
29%
60%
31%
45%
25%
Pick up litter
Bag, mulch, compostleaves
Planted a tree
Pick up dog waste
Conserve water athome
Septic systeminspected/pumped out
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Always/Very Frequently/Yes Usually/Frequently Sometimes Seldom Never/No Not sure
Positive Behaviors: Higher Tier
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
10%
14%
13%
10%
26%
12% 12% 7%
90%
86%
86%
55%
73%
Rain barrel connected,emptied
Have a rain barrel
Created a rain garden
Keep fertilzer off hardsurfaces
Replaced an area ofgrass lawn
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Always/Very Frequently/Yes Usually/Frequently Sometimes Seldom Never/No Not sure
Positive Behaviors: Lower Tier
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
22%
50%
19%
7%
38%
6%
10%
5%
11%
31%
Pick up litter
Pick up dog waste
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Always/Very Frequently/Yes Usually/Frequently Sometimes Seldom Never/No Not sure
Focus Behaviors for Today
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
43%
46%
19%
23%
22%
19%
13%
9%
1%
2%
Fertilize lawn
Use pesticides
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Never/No Seldom Sometimes Usually/Frequently Always/Very Frequently/Yes Not sure
33.75
34.05
35.95
36.30
44.30
44.60
46.35
51.40
59.15
Pick up other people's litter
Use pesticides
Use herbicides
Have your septic inspected/pumped
Wash medicines down the drain
Empty your rain barrel
Blow grass clippings onto hard surfaces
Wash oil/grease down the drain
Toss food wrappers/cups/cigarette butts
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Behaviors Most Susceptible to Change
Asked Only of Those Not Taking the Desired Action Today
Very Somewhat Not
100 50 0
0 50 100
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
Looking forward over the next year or so, how likely are you to do each of these things using the scale
(rotate high to low/low to high): [very likely, somewhat likely, (or) not likely]?
14.35
14.40
20.35
21.85
23.30
26.00
26.80
27.80
28.70
32.10
Create a rain garden
Install a rain barrel
Reduce lawn area with native plants
Pick up dog waste and dispose in trash
Conserve water with low flow fixtures
Plant a tree
Keep fertilzer off hard surfaces
Redirect downspouts
Fertilize your grass lawn
Bag/mulch/compost leaves
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Behaviors Less Susceptible to Change
Asked Only of Those Not Taking the Desired Action Today
Very Somewhat Not
100 50 0
0 50 100
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
Looking forward over the next year or so, how likely are you to do each of these things using the scale
(rotate high to low/low to high): [very likely, somewhat likely, (or) not likely]?
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
Interesting Facts about Picking up Dog Waste
• 66% always or usually dispose of their dog’s waste on their own property.
• Only 48% always or usually do so off their property.
• Apartment dwellers and duplexes much more likely to pick it up, both on and off property.
• DC Residents much more likely than rural residents to pick up dog waste.
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
Interesting Facts about Pesticide
• Urban and suburban residents somewhat more likely to use pesticides than small town or rural.
• Women slightly more likely than men.
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
Interesting Facts about Fertilizing
• Fertilizer use much higher among age 45+.
• Higher among suburban and better-educated.
• Rises significantly with income.
Citizen Stewardship Indicator2017 Baseline: Weighted Data (6/30/17)
Interesting Facts about Picking up Litter
• Much more prone to pick it up if over age 35.
• Homeowners much more likely.
• Small town and rural residents most likely to pick it up; urban residents least likely.
How to Apply
What We Have
Learned?