introduction to risk management in power plant investment projects
DESCRIPTION
risk managementTRANSCRIPT
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Introduction to Risk Management inPower Plant Investment Projects
Murat Kandaz, PMPMay 2013
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PresenterMurat Kandaz, MScME, PMP
• B.Sc. 2003, M.Sc. 2006 – Department of Mechanical Engineering, METU
• Have held various positions regarding engineering, construction andproject management in;
– Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline Project
– Ashgabat Power Plant Project
– Damlapınar, Kepezkaya, and Kumköy Hydro Power Plant Projects
– Demircili and Sarpıncık Wind Power Plant Projects
• Have held various positions in business development and proposaldepartments
• Works as the PM of Wind Power Plant Projects of Çalık Energy
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Project Management (PM) Presentation Series
1. Introduction to Implementation of Project ManagementBook of Knowledge (PMBOK) Guide in Power PlantInvestment Projects
2. Introduction to Risk Management in Power PlantInvestment Projects
3. Project Management in Multi-Cultural Teams
4. Project Feasibility and Development within Project Management Offices (PMO’s)
5. Project Management at Construction Jobsites
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Outline• Introduction
• Risk Management Activities
• Risk Management in Wind Power Plant
Projects
• Conclusions
• Discussion Panel / Future Work
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Before We StartWhat do you think would be the most important work of
a PM regarding handling problems?
Dealing with the problems effectively and efficientlyas they occur?
Preventing them, or having a plan to deal withthem beforehand?
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Against Possible Problems• What if we can say: “No problem. We
anticipated this, and we have a plan in place that will resolve it”*
• Savings in money and time that wouldhave been spent addressing theproblem
• Efforts focused on being proactiverather than solving problems
• Less stress
• Reduced uncertainties and estimates
* PMP Exam Prep, Rita Mulcahy, 7th Edition, 2011, RMC Publications
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Importance of Risk Management
• Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has an effect (+ve / -ve) on at least on project objective, i.e. scope, schedule, cost, quality!*
• Among many examples, consider the interactionbetween cost and risk management, just duringplanning!
* PMBOK Guide, 4th Edition, 2008, PMI
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Cost Budget & Risk Planning€ … € … € … € …Activity
estimates:
€ … Work package estimates: € …
€ … € …
€ …
€ …
Control account estimates:
Project estimate: € …
€ …
€ …
Contingency reserves(for known unknowns)
Management reserves
CostBaseline:
CostBudget:
(for unknown unknowns)
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Risk Management Processesper PMBoK
Sequential and recurring processes:1. Plan Risk Management2. Identify Risks3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis5. Plan Risk Responses6. Monitor and Control Risks
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Process Interactions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
‐1 4 9 14 19 24
Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Controlling Closing
Inte
ract
ion
Time
1. Plan Risk Management2. Identify Risks3. Qualitative Analysis4. Quantitative Analysis5. Plan Risk Responses
6. Monitor & ControlRisks
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Always Keep In Mind
The processes overlapand interact in many ways
during a project or a phase!
Hence the PM should be proactivelyand consistently perform risk management
with continuous updating!
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Risk Management Processes:1. Plan Risk Management
What is the best approach in power plant investmentprojects, to come up with a plan that is fit for purpose, trackable, and comprehensive?
What must this plan include?
Who among the companyshould be included?
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Output: Risk Management Plan
Methodology
Roles & responsibilities
Budgeting
Timing
Risk categories
Definitions of risk probability and impact
Stakeholdertolerances
Reporting and trackingprocedures
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Risk Management Processes:2. Identify Risks
Technicale.g. New technology or
materials, test failures
Environmentale.g. Weather conditions,
traffic restrictions
Operationale.g. New
systems/procedures, need for training
Culturale.g. Established customs
and beliefs, holidays
Financiale.g. Bankruptcy, currency
fluctiation
Legale.g. Local laws, lack of
clarity of contract
Commerciale.g. Changes in market
conditions or customers
Resourcee.g. Shortage of staff, operatives, materials
Economice.g. Slow-down,
change in prices
Politicale.g. Change in
government/policies
Securitye.g. Theft, safety
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Risk Identification Methods• Documentation reviews• Information gathering techniques
BrainstormingDelphi
InterviewingRoot-cause analysis
• Checklist analysis
• Assumptions analysis
• Diagramming techniques (C&E, PFD, etc)• SWOT analysis
• Expert judgement
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Output: Risk Register
• Main document on which the risks aredocumented, updated, analyzed, planned. It is the major document on which most of the risk information is kept.
• At this point (2. Identify Risks – without anyupdating and further proceeding), what does risk register include?
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Risk Register (Initial)
• List of risks• List of potential responses
It is not always logical to seperate risk management works! Hence, some potential responses may be added as risks are identified.
• Root causes of risks• Risk categories
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Risk Management Processes:3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
We should create a shortlist of risks depending upon:
Are we supposed to do something about all therisks that we have identified?
• Probability: Probability of each risk occuring• Impact: Amount at stake (+ve/-ve)
To perform a subjective evaluation of risks
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Tools for Qualitative Risk Analysis
• Probability and Impact Matrix: Standard ratingsystem
• Risk Data Quality Assessment: “How accurateand well understood is the risk information?”
• Risk Categorization: “What will we find whenwe categorize the risks by categories? Bywork packages? By any other category?”
• Risk Urgency Assessment: Order by urgency
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Probability & Impact Matrix - 1
Prob
ability
109876543210 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Impact
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Probability & Impact Matrix - 2
Prob
ability
Severe
Medium
Low
None Low Medium High
Impact
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Risk Register (updated afterQualitative Analysis)
• List of prioritized risks and their P & I rating
• Risks grouped by categories
• Risks needing near-term responses/analyses• Risks needing further responses/analyses (to be
further proceeded with or not?)• Watchlist• Trends• For portfolio management: Risk ranking of project
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Risk Management Processes:4. Perform Quantitative Risk
Analysis• Expected monetary value (EMV) = P x I
• Similar techniques as in risk identificationand qualitative analysis
• Leads to detailed risk analysis such as Monte Carlo simulations and Tornado diagrams, showing which activites arequantified how
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Combined Frequency/Time Histogram
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An Example to Quantitative Risk Analysis
• To perform model test / prototyping or not?
PrototypeSetup Cost = € 100.000
Do Not PrototypeSetup Cost = € 0
Failure = 10% and € 20.000 impact
Pass = No impact
Failure = 10% and € 2.000.000 impact
Pass = No impact
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Qualitative vs QuantitativeRisk Analysis
Qualitative Quantitative• ~Subjective • ~Objective• Risks may be defined by
numbers• Risks defined by EMV
• Performed for eachproject / phase
• Determine thequantified probabilityof meeting projectobjectives
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Risk Management Processes:5. Plan Risk Responses
• What are we going to do about each top / major / prioritized risk?
• Do something before the risk happens• Do something to make sure the opportunity happens• Decrease the P and/or I of threats, increase those of
opportunities• For the remaining (residual) threats that can not be
eliminated:o Do something if the risk happens contingency plano Do something if the contingency plan do not work
fallback plan
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Risk Response Strategies
Avoide.g. Remove a risky
activity / workpackage / resource
Mitigatee. g. Provide training to a
non-experiencedresource
Transfere.g. Purchase
insurance, outsource work
Exploite.g. Move a work
package per an experienced
resource’s availability
Enhancee.g. Begin negotiation
earlier than plannedso as to secure a
lower price
Sharee.g. Outsource a
work package toform a
partnership via an opportunity
Accepte.g. Notify management that the
risk is accepted
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Risk Management Processes:6. Monitor and Control Risks
• Risk reassessments – regularly sheduled• Risk audits – regularly scheduled• Variance and trend analyses – analyses of
deviations from baseline plan• Reserve analyses – adequacy of
remaining contingencies• Status meetings – the more the merrier
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Sample Risk Register
Key: H‐high; M‐medium; L‐low
Project:
Prepared by:
Reference:
Date:
Type of risk
Description of risk
Probability Impact Risk reduction strategy
Contingency plans
Risk ownerH M L Perf Cost Time
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Some Actions• Look for occurance of risk triggers
• Monitor residual risks
• Indentify new risks and thenanalyze and plan for them
• Look for occurance of risk triggers• Evaluate the effectiveness of the
risk management plan – are theRM processes working?
• Develop new risk responses –“That plan no longer seemsapplicable, let’s plan a differentresponse”
• Collect and communicate risk status• Check initial assumptions
• Reevaluate risk identification if theproject misses the baseline
• Update risk management plan, response plans, and so on
• Create a database of risk management tools and documentsfor lessons learned
• Perform variance and trend analyses on project performance
• Look for any unexpected effects orconsequences of risk events
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PMBOK Ed. 4th 5th
• Plan risk management: improved set of tools and techniques (expert judgement of stake holders)
• Risk related contract decisions taken out of outputs included in PMPlan in procurement management
• Control risks
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Risk Management in Wind Power Plant Projects
• Risk management plan prepared• 200+ risks identified
via information gathering, diagramming, and expert judgement techniques
• Qualifiedvia expert judgement using other tools
• Quantification in progressvia 3-point estimates by expert judgement
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Sample Risks – 1/3# Risk Item Risk Category
Probability Qualification
(0-none; 1-low; 2-med; 3-high)
Impact Qualification
(0-none; 1-low; 2-med; 3-high)
PxI
24 Radar interference - need for additional radar software / hardware Technical 1 3 3
165 Change in anticipated currency rate - more than 10% Financial 1 3 3
45 Violation of environmental Laws by subcontractors Legal 2 2 4
91 Increase in land costs that are to be obtained by Owner Administrative 3 2 6
21Incompatibility of Materials and Works with technical exhibits of the Contract - noticed at testing and installation
Technical 1 3 3
142Carbon certification deemed to be impossible because of non-Owner related and non-force-majeure events
Legal 1 1 1
88 Decrease in feed-in tariff for the WPP commercial operation period Financial 0 3 0
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Sample Risks – 2/3# Risk Item
Probability for Expected Monetary
Value Analysis(Quantification -only for PxI >= 3)
Impact for Expected Monetary Value
Analysis (Quantification - only
for PxI > 3)
EMV
24 Radar interference - need for additional radar software / hardware 2% € 100.000 € 2.000
165 Change in anticipated currency rate - more than 10% 4% € 1.750.000 € 70.000
45 Violation of environmental Laws by subcontractors 38% € 133.333 € 50.667
91 Increase in land costs that are to be obtained by Owner 80% € 200.000 € 160.000
21Incompatibility of Materials and Works with technical exhibits of the Contract - noticed at testing and installation
10% € 250.000 € 25.000
142Carbon certification deemed to be impossible because of non-Owner related and non-force-majeure events
N/A N/A -
88 Decrease in feed-in tariff for the WPP commercial operation period N/A N/A -
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Sample Risks – 3/3# Risk Item
List of Potential
Precuations
List of Potential
Responses
Risk Mitigation Strategy
Response Trigger Event
Secondary Risk?
Res.Risk?
24 Radar interference - need for additional radar software / hardware
165 Change in anticipated currency rate -more than 10%
45 Violation of environmental Laws by subcontractors
91 Increase in land costs that are to be obtained by Owner
21
Incompatibility of Materials and Works with technical exhibits of the Contract - noticed at testing and installation
142
Carbon certification deemed to be impossible because of non-Owner related and non-force-majeure events
88 Decrease in feed-in tariff for the WPP commercial operation period
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Conclusions
• Risk assessment – decreases costs (sometimes saves projects!)
• PM’s best strategy to be proactive and to perform actual PM work
• PMBOK risk management ~best way for investors in power plant projects (given HSE, CAPEX, OPEX concerns)
• Importance of contingency and management reserves (known/unknown unknowns)
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References
• PMBOK Guide, 4th Edition, 2008, PMI
• PMBOK Guide, 5th Edition, 2012, PMI
• PMP Exam Prep, Rita Mulcahy, 7th Edition, 2011, RMC Publications
• Project Management, Planning and Control, 5th Edition, 2007, Butterworth-Heinemann Publications
• www.projectmanager.com
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Discussion Panel / Future Work
• Any more problems / issues you could think of, and any recommendation, if any?
• Could you kindly write the risks in investment projects, so that we can compare with the ones in wind power projects?
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Finally..
Thank you for your attention and hope to seeyou in the next presentation of PM Series
Q & A..