Introduction Introduction to to

Systems ThinkingSystems Thinking

Zaipul Anwar Bin ZainuZaipul Anwar Bin ZainudindinLecturer in Institute of Product Design & Manufacturing, Lecturer in Institute of Product Design & Manufacturing, (IPROM) Universiti Kuala Lumpur(IPROM) Universiti Kuala LumpurTel: 03-27154715, 019-3262427Tel: 03-27154715, 019-3262427Email: zaipul@gmail.comEmail: zaipul@gmail.comWebsite: http://www.zaipul.comWebsite: http://www.zaipul.comBlog: http://zaipul.com/category/blogsBlog: http://zaipul.com/category/blogsFacebookFacebook: http://www.facebook.com/zaipul: http://www.facebook.com/zaipul

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER

““The significant problems we face today The significant problems we face today cannot be solved at the same cannot be solved at the same level of level of thinkingthinking at which they were created. at which they were created.””

Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein

Founded in 1956 by MIT professor, Jay Forrester.Founded in 1956 by MIT professor, Jay Forrester.System thinking allows people to make their System thinking allows people to make their understanding understanding of social system of social system explicit and improve them in the explicit and improve them in the same same way that people use engineering principles way that people use engineering principles to improve their to improve their understanding of mechanical system.understanding of mechanical system.

It is use to:-It is use to:-

• Examining how we create our own problemsExamining how we create our own problems• Seeing the big pictureSeeing the big picture• Structure influences performanceStructure influences performance

WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?

SYSTEM THINKING APPROACH

Traditional analysis Systems thinking

Traditional analysis focuses onthe separating the individualpieces of what is being studied; infact, the word “analysis” actuallycomes from the root meaning “tobreak into constituent parts.

Systems thinking, in contrast, focuses on how the thing being studied interacts with the other constituents of the system—a set of elements that interact to produce behavior—of which it is a part.

Complex problems that involve helping many actors see the “big picture” and not just their part of itRecurring problems or those that have been made worse by past attempts to fix themIssues where an action affects (or is affected by) the environment surrounding the issue, either the natural environment or the competitive environmentProblems whose solutions are not obvious

Examples of area System Thinking has proven its value include:

Encourages us to see the whole as well as the parts.

Systems Thinking Learning to see the world systemically

?? ??

!!!

WHOLE PARTS Holistic Thinking

Multiple (often) restricted views

Systems Thinking…

Webecoist.comMax Barret

Helps us explore interdependencies and looking for patterns.

Systems Thinking…

River Fractal - Héctor Garrido

Helps us understand feedback structures that change systems over time.

Systems Thinking…

http://www.systems-thinking.org/theWay/theWay.htm

Helps us understand results of our decisions…

Causal Loop DiagramsCausal Loop Diagrams

• A useful way to represent dynamic interrelationships • Provide a visual representation with which to communicate that understanding

• Make explicit one's understanding of a system structure - Capture the mental model

SYSTEMS THINKING TOOLSSYSTEMS THINKING TOOLS

Variables - an element in a situation which may act or be acted upon Vary up or down over time (not an event) Nouns or noun phrases (not action words)

Links / Arrows - show the relationship and the directionof influence between variables

S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another S or + stands for "same direction” O or - stands for "opposite direction”

or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change

Components of Causal Loop DiagramsComponents of Causal Loop Diagrams

EmployeePerformance

Supervisor’sSupportiveBehavior

UnsupportiveBehavior

Structure

S

S

Reinforcing LoopReinforcing Loop

Perf.Level

Time

Behavior Over Time

Supportive Behavior

EmployeePerformance

Supervisor’sSupportiveBehavior

Types of Causal Loop DiagramsTypes of Causal Loop Diagrams

Discrepancy

InventoryAdjustment

Structure

ActualInventory

DesiredInventory

Desired Inventory

Time

Behavior Over Time

100

100 - -

100 ++

Actual Inventory

S

S

S

O

Balancing LoopBalancing LoopTypes of Causal Loop DiagramsTypes of Causal Loop Diagrams

• A class of tools that capture the "common stories” in systems thinking

• Powerful tools for diagnosing problems and identifying high leverage interventions that creates fundamental change

SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES

1. Fixes that Fail / Backfire

2. Limits to Growth/Success

3. Shifting the Burden / Addiction

4. Tragedy of the Commons

5. Drifting Goals

List of System Thinking Archetype

UnintendedConsequences

FixProblemSymptom

Delay

S S

S

O

Time

Behavior Over Time

1. Fixes that Fail1. Fixes that Fail

1. Fixes that Fail1. Fixes that FailExample:Example:An example would be fixing problem of a squeakyAn example would be fixing problem of a squeakywheel. Imagine someone who knows nothing aboutwheel. Imagine someone who knows nothing aboutmechanics, mistakenly grab a can of water andmechanics, mistakenly grab a can of water andsplash it on the wheel. With great relief thesplash it on the wheel. With great relief thesqueaking stop for a while, it will squeaking stop for a while, it will return more loudly as return more loudly as the water join forces the water join forces to rust the joint. to rust the joint.

1. Fixes that Fail1. Fixes that FailPrescriptive actions:Prescriptive actions:• Increase awareness of the unintended Increase awareness of the unintended

consequencesconsequences• Cut back on the frequency with which you apply Cut back on the frequency with which you apply

the the ‘‘fixfix’’• Try to minimize the undesirable consequencesTry to minimize the undesirable consequences• Reframe and address the root problem, give up the Reframe and address the root problem, give up the

fix that works only on the symtomfix that works only on the symtom• Breaking Breaking ‘‘fixes that failfixes that fail’’ merely alleviating a merely alleviating a

symptom, not really solving the problem. A two symptom, not really solving the problem. A two pronged attack of applying fix and finding pronged attack of applying fix and finding fundamental solution will help to break the fundamental solution will help to break the problem.problem.

PositiveReinforcement

Structure

Perf.Level

Time

Behavior Over Time

Corrective Action

Target

DiminishingReturns

“Burnout”

Growing Action

Actual Performance

S

S

S

O

S

2. Limits to Growth2. Limits to Growth

2. Limits to Growth2. Limits to Growth

2. Limits to Growth2. Limits to GrowthExample:Example:At the beginning of a quality improvement campaign,At the beginning of a quality improvement campaign,significant gains in quality and productivity weresignificant gains in quality and productivity wereachieved. Once this achieved, the level ofachieved. Once this achieved, the level ofimprovements plateaus. improvements plateaus.

The next wave of improvements The next wave of improvements are more complex and tougher toare more complex and tougher tomanage. Later the lack of manage. Later the lack of organization-wide support leads to organization-wide support leads to limited/diminishing quality andlimited/diminishing quality andproductivity of the whole organization (it becomesproductivity of the whole organization (it becomesstagnant or diminish).stagnant or diminish).

2. Limits to Growth2. Limits to GrowthPrescriptive actions:Prescriptive actions:• Beware of doing more of what worked in the past.Beware of doing more of what worked in the past.• If your growth has stalled, look at both reinforcing If your growth has stalled, look at both reinforcing

and balancing loops to try to find interrelationships and balancing loops to try to find interrelationships between your success strategies and potential between your success strategies and potential limits.limits.

• Look for other potential engines of growth.Look for other potential engines of growth.• The real leverage in The real leverage in ‘‘limits to growthlimits to growth’’ scenario lies in scenario lies in

its early phases.its early phases.• The choice between plateauing or peaking often The choice between plateauing or peaking often

depends on length of balancing loop delay and our depends on length of balancing loop delay and our response to it.response to it.

3. Shifting the Burden3. Shifting the BurdenQuick fixes

Problem/symptom

Source of problem/Root cause

Side effects

+

__

+

_

+

+

__

Efforts Quick fix

Time

Behavior Over Time

Capacity of systemto fix itself

Problem symptom

3. Shifting the Burden3. Shifting the BurdenApply Patches

Damage of Road

Proper RoadContruction

Feeling of Okay

+

__

+

_

+

+_

_

Apply patches

Time

Behavior Over Time

Proper road construction

Damage of road

3. Shifting the BurdenExample:Example:Problem of pot holes on the road. The problem is handled by Problem of pot holes on the road. The problem is handled by

applying patches with immediate effect, thereby solving the applying patches with immediate effect, thereby solving the problem for a while. The primary source of the problem is problem for a while. The primary source of the problem is overlooked, that is the overall quality of the road construction.overlooked, that is the overall quality of the road construction.

The origin of the problem The origin of the problem should be identified and should be identified and solved in the long-term run solved in the long-term run or else the quality of the or else the quality of the road will be further road will be further diminished. diminished.

3. Shifting the BurdenPrescriptive actions:Prescriptive actions:• Strengthen the long-term solution.Strengthen the long-term solution.• If possible, support only long-term solution. If If possible, support only long-term solution. If

you must address the symtoms right away, do so you must address the symtoms right away, do so with restraint.with restraint.

• As you strengthen long-term capability, do what As you strengthen long-term capability, do what you can to reduce dependency on the short-term you can to reduce dependency on the short-term fix.fix.

4. Tragedy of the Commons4. Tragedy of the Commons

Total ActivityGain perIndividualActivity

ResourceLimit

O

S

S

S Time

A

Time

B

A’s Activity

B’s Activity

Net Gainsfor B

S

S

S

S

Net Gainsfor AS

S

4. Tragedy of the Commons4. Tragedy of the Commons

Investmentin Integration

PerceivedSuccess fromIntegration

S

O

O

Time

A

Time

B

Investmentin features

S

S

S

S

O

O

Success fromProductInvestment

Success fromProductInvestment

Investmentin features

FixedBudget

FixedBudget

Investmentin Integration

DELAY

S

S

4. Tragedy of the CommonsExample:Example:Traffic jam in Kuala Lumpur. Everyone wishes to avoidTraffic jam in Kuala Lumpur. Everyone wishes to avoidtraffic jam will use the highway. At first there is roomtraffic jam will use the highway. At first there is roomfor everyone, but after sometimes critical threshold hasfor everyone, but after sometimes critical threshold hasbeen reached, each driver brings about been reached, each driver brings about decrease in average speed. decrease in average speed.

As individuals each person feels he orAs individuals each person feels he orshe is a victim of traffic but in effect she is a victim of traffic but in effect they all conspired as a group to create they all conspired as a group to create traffic jam.traffic jam.

4. Tragedy of the CommonsPrescriptive actions:Prescriptive actions:

• In any of the In any of the ‘‘tragedytragedy’’ situations, there must be an situations, there must be an overriding legislation for common good.overriding legislation for common good.

• To protect common resources some form To protect common resources some form of regulation should be introduced.of regulation should be introduced.

• Re-evaluate the nature of the commons to determine Re-evaluate the nature of the commons to determine if there are ways to replace, renew or substitute the if there are ways to replace, renew or substitute the resources before it becomes depleted.resources before it becomes depleted.

5. Drifting Goals5. Drifting Goals

Goal Pressure to Lower Goal

Gap

Corrective ActionActual

SS

O

SO

S

Delay

Time

Goal

Perceived DesiredTemperature

Tolerance for Temperature

TemperatureGap

Hop Out

Time

TempS

S

O

SO

5. Drifting Goals5. Drifting Goals

Example:Example:If you put a frog in cold water and slowly bring If you put a frog in cold water and slowly bring the water to boil the frog will jump out when it the water to boil the frog will jump out when it gets uncomfortable or even died in the boiling gets uncomfortable or even died in the boiling waterwaterIf you put a frog in boiling water, If you put a frog in boiling water,

it will croak IMMEDIATELY.it will croak IMMEDIATELY.

5. Drifting Goals5. Drifting Goals

5. Drifting GoalsPrescriptive actions:Prescriptive actions:

• Establish a clear transition plan from current reality Establish a clear transition plan from current reality to the goal including realistic timeframe to achieve to the goal including realistic timeframe to achieve the goal.the goal.

• Determine whether the drift in performance is the Determine whether the drift in performance is the result of conflicts between the stated goal and result of conflicts between the stated goal and implicit goals in the system.implicit goals in the system.

• Anchor the goal to an external frame of reference Anchor the goal to an external frame of reference (benchmarking).(benchmarking).

Systems ThinkingSystems ThinkingCase StudyCase Study

Crop Damaging by InsectsCrop Damaging by Insects

When an insect is eating a crop, the conventional response is to spray the crop with a pesticide designed to kill that insect.

Putting aside the limited effectiveness of some pesticides and the water and soil pollution they can cause, imagine a perfect pesticide that kills all of the insects against which it is used and which has no side effects on air, water, or soil.

Is using this pesticide likely to make the farmer or company whose crops are being eaten better off?

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:

InsectsDamaging Crops

PesticideApplication

O

If we represent the thinking used by thoseapplying the pesticides, it would look like this:

1. The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an “s” means they change in the same direction - if one goes up then the other goes up, and an “o” means they change in the opposite direction - if one goes up then the other goes down (or vice versa).

2. This diagram is read “a change in the amount of pesticide applied causes the number of insects damaging crops to change in the opposite direction.”

3. The belief being represented here is that “as the amount of pesticide applied increases, the number of insects damaging crops decreases”.

Total number of Insects damaging crop

PesticideApplication

S

O

S

Number of Insect A Damaging Crop

Number of Insect B

Number of Insect BDamaging Crop

S

S

O

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:4. The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in the

short term. 5. Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years the

problem of crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that formerly seemed so effective does not seem to help anymore.

6. This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling the population of another insect B, either by preying on it or by competing with it.

7. When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, it eliminates the control that those insects were applying on the population of the other insects, insects B).

8. Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled explodes and continue to damage the crops.

So now how do you solve the problem of Insect B damaging the crop?

Find the solution…..

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:

With this picture of the system in mind, otheractions with better long-term results have been

developed, such as Integrated Pest ManagementIntegrated Pest Management,which includes controlling the insect eating the

crops by introducing more of its predators into theintroducing more of its predators into theareaarea. These methods have been proven effective instudies conducted by MIT, the National Academy

of Sciences, and others, and they also avoidrunning the risk of soil and water pollution.

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects

The solution:

THE FIFTH DISCIPLINES

To more about Systems Thinking,To more about Systems Thinking,read this book!read this book!

TeamLearning

PersonalMastery

Mental

Models

Shared

VisionSystems

Thinking

ReferencesWarfield, J. Warfield, J. Societal SystemsSocietal Systems, Intersystems, 1989., Intersystems, 1989.Joseph OJoseph O’’Connor & Ian McDermott. Connor & Ian McDermott. The Art of Systems ThinkingThe Art of Systems Thinking, , Thorsons, 1997.Thorsons, 1997.Senge, P.M. Senge, P.M. The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization, The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization,

Doubleday, 1990.Doubleday, 1990. The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building A The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building A

Learning Organization, Doubleday, 1994.Learning Organization, Doubleday, 1994.System Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link ListSystem Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link Listhttp://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/links/bookmksd.htmhttp://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/links/bookmksd.htmThe Way of Systems (System Archetypes)The Way of Systems (System Archetypes)http://www.outsights.com/systems/theWay/theWay.htmhttp://www.outsights.com/systems/theWay/theWay.htmDaniel Aronson, Overview of Systems Thinking, 1996-8Daniel Aronson, Overview of Systems Thinking, 1996-8

http://www.thinking.nethttp://www.thinking.net