inundatios on the black sea coast of krasnodar krai · issn 00978078, water resources, 20 16, vol....

ISSN 0097�8078, Water Resources, 2016, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 1–14. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2016.Original Russian Text © N.I. Alekseevskii, D.V. Magritskii, P.K. Koltermann, P.A. Toropov, D.I. Shkol’nyi, P.A. Belyakova, 2016, published in Vodnye Resursy, 2016, Vol. 43, No. 1,pp. 3–17.

1

INTRODUCTION

Inundatios, i.e., the temporal flooding of areasadjacent to a river or a water body, leading to social,economic, and environmental damages with possiblecasualties, are a great hazard on marine coasts and atthe mouths and valleys of rivers [8, 17]. Such inunda�tions are a typical feature of the rivers in the Krasnodarpart of the Black Sea area. Three catastrophic inunda�tions, accompanied by casualties and considerabledamage, and several inundations of smaller scale tookplace in this zone in the recent 5 years. They arecaused by the joint effect of natural factors and eco�nomic activity. The specific geographic position of theterritory, the large number and extreme character ofprecipitation, the inundation regime of rivers, thecomplex orography of the territory, the large slopes,and the weak regulating capacity of river watershedsare the major natural factors of formation of periodicinundations in the valleys of Black Sea rivers. The defi�ciency of developable areas results in that the popu�lated localities and the industrial, social, and resortfacilities and transport infrastructure are located inriver valleys and at their mouths, thus considerablyincreasing the inundation hazard.

However, no comprehensive analysis of inundationrisk has been carried out on the Black Sea coast ofKrasnodar krai. Therefore, the major characteristicsof inundations in this area, the features and regulari�ties of their formation and development are generallyunknown, as well as their factors. Useful data on therecent catastrophic inundations and their conse�quences in river valleys on the coast can be found in [7,

† Deceased.

8, 12, 26, 28]. The research results obtained in [4, 6, 7,11, 13–15, 21–22, 25, 28], as well as the studies ofKuban GAU, are of importance for studying inunda�tions in this part of Russia. However, these data do notreveal the regularities of the space and time variationsof the factors and characteristics in the coastal zoneand relationships between them. They are not enoughfor parameterization of runoff characteristics in orderto determine the conditions of inundation formation.The lack of generalizations in this field hampers thedevelopment of more efficient technologies for inun�dation control and the reduction of its adverse effecton the population and economy of the region. Themain objective of this article is to analyze the timevariations and spatial heterogeneity of the distributionof inundation characteristics in the river valleys of theCaucasian part of the Black Sea coast of Russia.

STUDY OBJECTS

The Black Sea coast of Krasnodar krai includes theterritories of Temryuk and Tuapse, Novorossiysk City,and resort cities of Anapa, Gelendzhik, and Sochi.The coastal area is ~8015 km2. The coastal zoneextends as a narrow belt (the mean width of 23 km witha minimum on Taman Peninsula and a maximum nearGreat Sochi) over 350 km from Kerch Peninsula to thePsou R. (Fig. 1). The land boundary of the Black Searegion coincides with the water divide between thedrainage basins of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

The Black Sea area has been well developed. Theresidential population in this area is more than1.1 million. According to the data of Kuban StateUniversity, almost 90% of the residential population is

WATER RESOURCES AND THE REGIME OF WATER BODIES

Inundatios on the Black Sea Coast of Krasnodar KraiN. I. Alekseevskii†, D. V. Magritskii, P. K. Koltermann, P. A. Toropov,

D. I. Shkol’nyi, and P. A. BelyakovaMoscow State University, Moscow, 119991 Russia

E�mail: [email protected] July 17, 2014

Abstract—Inundatios on the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar krai between 1945 and 2013 have been analyzed.The main genetic types of inundations on the coast have been identified. The specific features and regularitiesof inundation wave transformation along the rivers and over time have been studied. Seasonal and maximalrunoff of Black Sea rivers has been analyzed over a long�term period. Regularities in the variations of thenumber of inundatios and their characteristics over the coastal area have been revealed both at the annual andlong�term scales. Quantitative estimates are given to the hazard and damage to the population and economicactivity due to inundations in the valleys of Black Sea rivers.

Keywords: Black Sea coast, river, drainage basin, runoff, precipitation, inundation, inundation, damage

DOI: 10.1134/S0097807816010036

2

WATER RESOURCES Vol. 43 No. 1 2016

ALEKSEEVSKII et al.

50 km0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MF Temryukskii raion

MF AnapaGastagaika R. MF Novorossiysk

Tsemes R.Novorossiysk

Gelendzhik Psh

ada

R.

MF Gelendzhik

Nec

hepsu

kho R.

Tuapse

MF Tuapsinskiiraion

Ashe R.

Sochi

Shakhe R.

Sochi R

.

Adler

Psou R.Mzymta R.

MF Sochi

BL

AC

K S

EA

р.V

ulan

R.

Anapa

Fig. 1. Russian Black Sea area and its distinctions in terms of the maximal possible water level rise in river channels and inundationconsequences. The maximal possible level rise in rivers compared with the levels before inundations: (1) 1–3 m, (2) 3–5 m, (3) 5–7 m, (4) 6–8 m, (5) above 8 m. The populated localities that suffered from inundation of runoff genesis in 1980–2013: (6) withthe number of events not more than 1–2; (7) with the number of events not more than 1–2 (with casualties); (8) with the numberof events not less than 3; (9) with the number of events not less than 3 (with casualties).

concentrated in the coastal zone 0.5 to 8 km in width;and 80%, in cities (Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik,Tuapse, Sochi, Adler, etc.) and urban settlements.This is a large center at the country scale for oil refin�ing, production of construction materials, dry and liq�uid cargo transshipment, natural gas transportation,large recreation zone, and an actively developing clus�ter of winter and other sports, large business and cul�tural center. The Black Sea region is a major agricul�tural region of Russia.

At a relatively small size of the area, it shows a con�siderable heterogeneity of natural conditions, causedby a contrast relief, geological structure, and precipi�tation distribution [22, 23, 25]. Hydrologically, theBlack Sea coast is a specific separate region, contain�ing many small�river basins. The Black Sea receives252 streams, of which only 16% have a length >10 km[24]. Only the rivers of Shakhe, Mzymta, and Psouhave lengths of >50 km and drainage areas of >400 km2

(Fig. 1). River network density increases southeast�

ward from 0.3–0.5 to 1 km/km2. Almost all streamshave large slopes and flow velocities, and contain seg�ments in the form of mountain creeks and waterfalls.The inundationplains are discontinuous and narrowand often absent in the upper reaches of rivers and ingorges. In the near�sea part of river valleys, their bedsare occupied by mouth alluvial fans. Their surface isoften the only area that can be developed, thoughunder the permanent inundation hazard.

The Black Sea rivers feature a inundation flowregime [22, 23] with the possible formation of inunda�tions in any month of the year. inundations in the riv�ers north of Tuapse take place mostly from Novemberto March (up to 70%). They can follow one anothercreating a wave of higher flow with a characteristicduration of 2–3 weeks. They are caused by rain eventsand winter snow melting (during frequent thaws). Therivers have low flow only in summer and early autumn(Fig. 2; Table 1). Even the largest rivers of the regioncan dry up in individual reaches for periods from sev�


INUNDATIOS ON THE BLACK SEA COAST OF KRASNODAR KRAI 3

eral days to several months. However, high rain inun�dations can form during low�water seasons. On theaverage over a year, 10–13 inundations can take place.The specifics of the inundation runoff determine theannual distribution of water flow (Fig. 2; Table 1):winter and spring accounts for ~82–86% of the annualrunoff (75% for the Tuapse R.).

inundations in the rivers of the Sochi part of thecoast are common in any season; however, they aremore frequent in autumn, winter, and spring, whenthey are caused by long rains and snow melting. Therivers of Shakhe, Sochi, and Psou, which have drain�age basins with large areas and elevations, show some�thing like a spring inundation; however, only theMzymta R. has a distinct spring inundation fromMarch to August. It is formed by melt water of sea�sonal snows, snowfields, glaciers, and rainfalls. Thedry season in those rivers is shorter; in the rivers northof Tuapse, it shows higher water levels, as it is ofteninterrupted by inundations. Up to 25 (on the average,16–20) inundations can form here every year. With thepassage from the northern to the southern boundariesof the Sochi�area coast (Fig. 2; Table 1), the relativerunoff of the winter–spring period decreases from 75to 55–65%.

inundations are also typical of small, essentially,intermittent streams (known under a local name ofshcheli (ravines)). Flow forms in them only in periodsof rains and snow melting. The absence of water in thebeds of such streams during most of the year creates adeceptive impression that their zone is hydrologicallysafe. Therefore, the adverse effects of inundations inthe lower reaches of such streams often become cata�strophic events.

TYPES OF INUNDATIONS

The diversity of the types of inundations and theircharacteristics in the Krasnodar Black Sea area werestudied based on long�term (since the 1920s to 2012)series of observation data on water levels and dis�charges at 24 gauges of Roshydromet. To determinewater discharges Q and levels H, corresponding to theformation of hazardous inundations and inundations,the series were parameterized with the use of, first, theauthors’ electronic catalogues “Inundations at rivermouths of European Russia” and “Inundations in theNorthern Caucasus” [2]; second, the materials of theauthors’ expedition studies in the Black Sea area in2011–2012; data from archives of other organizations,literary sources (Including the series “USSR SurfaceWater Resources” and State Water Cadaster); third,data of permanent level measurements in 2012–2014at 53 gauges of the departmental Automated Monitor�ing System of the inundation Situation on Rivers ofKrasnodar krai; data on critical elevations in the zonesof gauges and in populated localities; daily data onprecipitation at six weather stations (WS) in period1945–2013, etc.

The processing of input data was used to determinethe conditions and cases of inundations in the rivers ofthe Black Sea area in 1945–2013 with a high reliability.For this purpose, the recorded inundations were cor�related with the maximal water levels Hmax and dis�charges Qmax at gauge sections, daily rainfall depths Xat weather stations, their excess over critical values Hcr,Qcr, and Xcr, corresponding to unfavorable (UP) andhazardous (HP) phenomena.

The collected materials were used, first, to typifythe inundations in the Black Sea area by their factorsand to adapt the inundation classifications by themanifestation scale, the magnitude, and the damagestructure in use in Russia to the territory and riversunder consideration.

By the formation conditions and in accordancewith the classification [3], inundations of severalgenetic types, mostly of natural origin, were recordedin the coast. River flow are predominant. They accom�pany maximal water discharges during high rain inun�dations (at Hmax > Hcr and Qmax > Qcr) and, rarer, arecaused by intense snow melting on watersheds(including those intensified by rains), failure of damsof ponds or rock�dammed lakes. This type of inunda�tions may be extended to include the inundations thatform because of active accumulation of alluvium inriver channels. This process leads to a directed rise inwater levels (at Q = const) and flooding of the devel�oped areas at Q lesser than those in the previous years[1, 27]. Rivers with unstable bed require additionalparameterization of hydrological conditions of inun�dation formation, associated with the need to take intoaccount the intensity and direction of changes in theirchannel capacity. inundation inundations are com�mon in the inundationplain parts of river valleys.

Mixed�type inundations, ranking second in termsof occurrence, combine discharge and shower genesis.Generally, the shower inundations, which are alsocommon in the Black Sea area [4, 5, 20–23, 28] arecaused by rainfalls too high to be evacuated fromdeveloped areas into surface or subsurface water bod�ies. The magnitude of shower inundations can beincreased by poorly functioning storm drainage;therefore, they are most vivid and hazardous in popu�lated localities, their occurrence increasing with theurbanized areas. At the discharge–shower inunda�tions, the flooding is due to river and rain waters, aswell as powerful slope flows and waters of revivedintermittent streams, especially, at ravine mouths.

The inundations of the third type are caused by set�ups, storm surges, or inundations of another mixedtype caused by a combined effect of a inundation inthe river and a storm in the sea, i.e., the backwatereffect of the accepting water body. Such inundationscan take place at the mouths of coastal rivers. Othergenetic types of inundations (discharge–jam, tsu�nami) are only of potential hazard for territories of theresort city of Anapa [4, 15].

4


ALEKSEEVSKII et al.

300

40250

200

150

100

50

5 1197310

30

20

10

01

2

Y, mm Percent of dateswith Qmax

(а) (b)

(c) (d)

300

40250

200

150

100

50

5 1197310

30

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10

0

1

2

Y, mm

300

40250

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150

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5 1197310

30

20

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0

1

2

Мonths

50

60350

50

60350

400

450

Мonths

Percent of dateswith Qmax

Fig. 2. Annual distribution of (1) river runoff depth and (2) the dates of passage of maximal water discharges in a year on the riversof (a) Vulan, (b) Tuapse, (c) Shakhe, and (d) Mzymta (data averaged over period 1945–2012).

Inundations of the same genetic type differ by theircharacteristics (recurrence, inundated areas and thenumber of watersheds involved, the depth and dura�tion of inundation, etc.), as well as by the size andstructure of damage. The authors did not aim to findnew approaches to such division. The classificationsused in the study have been accepted in Russia,including in EMERCOM system [9–10, 16, 19, 26,27]; they divide the river�flow and discharge–showerinundations on the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar kraiinto (I) small (or hazardous inundations), (II) moder�ately hazardous, (III) large, (IV) catastrophic, and (V)outstanding. Various qualitative and quantitative crite�ria have been developed for them, the major being therecurrence, the excess of Hmax over Hcr, the area andthe number of populated localities affected by theinundation and their factors, the size of direct material

damage, and life hazard. The other criteria were (1)the character of direct damage to industrial facilities,road infrastructure, and residential buildings; (2) thesize and structure of the inundation of developed area;(3) the degree of disturbance of the life and productionactivity of the people; (4) the need to evacuate thepopulation; (5) environmental deterioration, etc.However, unfortunately, as it is often the case, the reli�able data on the above characteristics are few.

The mean recurrence of inundations of the identi�fied orders (in accordance with the exceedance prob�abilities of Qmax) for the coastal rivers was ~20, ~10,~4–5, ~2–2.5, and <1%, respectively. For differentrivers and in different channel reaches, the meanrecurrence can deviate from those values, thoughinsignificantly. An exception is the Vulan R. nearArkhipo�Osipovka Settl., where it is almost two times



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6


ALEKSEEVSKII et al.

larger for all types of inundations. However, oneshould take into account that the exceedance proba�bilities of Qmax, which caused inundations, for individ�ual events may deviate much from the mean valuesunder the effect of other factors, such as erosion–accumulation processes, anthropogenic changes ofchannels and banks, backwater effect of log gorges andbridges, storm surges and setups, the peculiarities ofstorm rainfalls and their transformation into slope andriver runoff, etc. For the Krasnodar Black Sea area, theoverall long�term frequency of inundations (notdivided into orders) is objectively higher, reaching ~1per 0.3 year.

In some rivers, mostly largest (the Shakha, Sochi,Mzymta, and Psou), no catastrophic (in terms of bothcharacteristics and the size of damage) or outstandinginundations were recorded in the period under consid�eration, while there were four such inundations in theTuapse R.

The mean excessive height Hmax over the elevationmark at which inundationplain inundation begins forthe inundations of the identified orders is 0.3, 0.8, 1.5,2.5, and 3.5 m, respectively. Casualties may take placeat inundations of type III (one or several killed) andIV–V (several dozens and more). Small inundationsshow minor material damage (<$0.1 million). Moder�ately hazardous inundations cause a damage of severalhundred dollars. During large inundations, the directmaterial damage varies from several hundred to severalmillion dollars, but less than $4–5 million. Cata�strophic inundations caused damage from several tensto hundreds of million dollars.

SPECIFIC FEATURES AND REGULARITIES OF INUNDATION PASSAGE

The formation of inundations leading to river�flowinundations takes place in the upper and middlereaches of the rivers under consideration. When ashower falls only in the lower reaches of a river, theflooding is caused by powerful slope flows, rather thanlevel rise in the river channel (the level has not enoughtime to reach critical marks). Inundations of mixedgenesis are also common. A inundation may first formin the lower reaches of the channel because the mois�ture is transported from the side of the sea, i.e., fromthe river mouth. In large rivers, this type of develop�ment of the hydrological situation leads to the forma�tion of especially powerful and destructive inunda�tions.

inundation waves travel with a high speed, whichvaries depending on the channel slope and Q, and canbe as high as 1.5–5 m/s. The value of Qmax increases inthe rivers from the source to the mouth, thus main�taining the high speed of inundation propagation, not�withstanding the decreasing channel slope. The maxi�mal flow velocities vmax during medium�height inun�dations vary from 1.5–2 (the Gastogaika and Dyursorivers) to 3.5–4.5 m/s (the rivers south of Gelendzhik

C.). The mean flow velocities are almost 1.5 times less.The highest flow velocities vary from 5.5 to 7 m/s, butcan be higher than that. Thus, vmax = 8.75 m/s wasrecorded on October 7, 1970, in the Kuapse R.

The shower�type precipitation, the large slopes andflow velocities, and the small length of the rivers deter�mine both the short travel time of inundation wavesand the extremely fast rise and fall of water level, aswell as many�time increase in water discharges (insome cases, from near�zero values to several hundredm3/s and even >1000 m3/s). inundations or their seriesmay last for several days. However, the main inunda�tion wave commonly passes within several hours,mostly, not longer than 0.5–1 day, while the part thatcauses inundations is even shorter. For example, thecatastrophic inundation in the Tuapse R. in 1991 wasabout 4.5 day long, while its major part passed withinabout 1 day, and the inundationplain was inundatedfor <4.5 h [22]. Residual inundations on the inunda�tionplain persist over a longer time.

The final transformation of the inundation wavetakes place in the lowest reach of the river and at itsmouth, i.e., downstream of the inflow of the last largetributaries, in the zone where the river valley widens,bed slope decreases, and water shows a backwatereffect from the sea or a sand–pebble bar damming themouth. The lower part of the area is inundated in thiscase, and the width of the water area increases byan order of magnitude or even a factor of 15–20(Figs. 3, 4). The maximal depths of inundation by riverwater may exceed 3 m and that by slope flows is up to0.5 m. After the culmination of the inundation, themajor portion of water rapidly discharges from theinundationplain into the river and directly into the sea.

The maximal level rise (ΔHmax = Hmax – Hbefinunda�

tion) in river channels may exceed 5–7 m (Fig. 2). Thelatter is possible during catastrophic inundations, innarrower parts of river valleys and channels, andupstream of bridges. The backwater component ΔHmaxin river segments upstream of bridges and tree gorgesmay be in excess of 0.5–2 m. During the inundation ofAugust 1, 1991, the level rise relative to its pre�inunda�tion value reached 10–11 m at the narrowing of theTuapse R. valley between the settlements of Kirpichnyiand Tsipka, ~10 m upstream of the road bridge in Tua�pse C., and 6.72 m in the section at the gauge with thesame name, i.e., beyond the zone of influence of thefactor mentioned above.

In accordance with the genetic equation of waterlevel variations [1, 18], erosion–accumulation pro�cesses can be a significant factor of rise or drop of freesurface elevations in river reaches. Such processes canbe of natural (caused by variations of the sediment dis�charge and the transport capacity of water flows) ortechnical character (the effect of artificial deepeningof the channel, its diking and channeling). For exam�ple, near Gostagaevskaya st., the release into the inun�dationplain in the 1970s took place at Q with anexceedance probability of <10% (Tables 1, 2). Cur�



rently, because of the natural incision of flow intochannel deposits and dredging operations, this takesplace at higher Q, corresponding to the exceedanceprobability of <3%. In the early 1950s, the inundation�plain of the Psezuapse R. (near Tat’yanovka V.) wasinundated at discharges with exceedance probabilityof <80%. By the early 1990s, the exceedance probabil�ity of Qcr was not more than 22%, thus reflecting a con�siderable decrease in the frequency of flooding thedeveloped area. Such examples are numerous. Thisfeature is a serious obstacle in the development ofeffective methods for prediction of hazardous inunda�tions, resulting in inundations. The discharges Q (andtheir exceedance probabilities) can be correlated withcritical levels only for some, relatively short, timeintervals or for canalized channel reaches (Table 2).Moreover, the differences Hmax – Hcr and Qmax – Qcr atthe gauges may not reflect the situation with possibleformation of inundations on upstream or downstreamreaches. A vivid example is the inundations in popu�lated localities on the Tuapse R. upstream of TuapseC., while the widened, canalized, and diked channelin the city itself can now pass Qcr with an exceedanceprobability of <2–3%.

In the general case, the planar and vertical defor�mations of river channels can reach considerablescale, creating a hazard to facilities in the channel andon the banks. A mudflow�like inundation on the Mat�sesta R. in September 1913 caused erosion and dis�placement of the bank line by more than 400 m. Theextent of such changes can be seen from the data onthe erosion of the Tuapse R. channel in August 1945(ΔHer = –2 m). In the absence of channel erosion, anincrease in the level could have been much higher thanthe observed elevations of the free surface, hence, aneven more catastrophic inundation. After the cata�strophic inundation of July 6–7, 2012, the width of the

Ashamba R. increased by 8–15 m (up to 15 m in someplaces), and the elevations of river bed dropped by2.0–2.5 m [11]. The catastrophic inundation on theShirokaya Balka R. on August 9, 2002, washed outchannel deposits down to bedrock, i.e., by 10 m [6].

The accumulation of sediments in river channels,which leads to a rise of bed elevation marks and,accordingly, water levels, is also significant. The largestis the effect of this process in the rivers with mudflowsand mudflow�type flows, with higher concentrationsof suspended particles, forming in their basins. Themajor portion of the transported mineral particlesdeposits in the lower reaches and at the mouths ofBlack Sea rivers, i.e., the reaches with gentler channelslopes and lower transport capacity of water flow. If thechannel is not dredged in proper time, its capacitydecreases; hence, a higher frequency of hazardousinundations, notwithstanding the engineering�protec�tion structures, i.e., high and continuous dams and thewidened and canalized channel. This was the case inNovomikhailovskii Settl. in 2010 and 2012. Part ofsediments, as well as rooted out trees and other gar�bage deposit on the inundationplain. The thickness ofalluvial deposits here reaches 10–20 cm and more.The deposition on developed areas and in buildingsaggravates the damage caused by the inundation.Some sediments remain in the nearshore area, wherethey often form a bar shallow, which is later eroded bystorms. The rest of sediments (fine sediment fractions)are carried out into the sea to form a vivid turbidityplume and to deteriorate the recreation attraction ofsea beaches and nearshore zone.

Table 2. Critical water levels and the corresponding water discharges in some rivers of the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar krai(for different periods with a relatively stable and unambiguous relationship between water levels and discharts)

River–gauge

Elevation of water passage to the inundationplain (or separately into the left (l) and right (r) inundation�

plain)

Elevation of an unfa�vorable phenomenon

Elevation of a hazardous phenomenon Period

H, cm Q, m3/s H, cm Q, m3/s H, cm Q, m3/s

Gastogaika–Gastogaevskaya725

25760

33–34780

38–39 1972–197943 55 >60 1983–2000

Vulan–Arkhipo�Osipovka 550l/630r 190l/290r 620 270 680 360 2000–2010Kuapse–Mamedova Shchel’ 300 55 310 65 330 85 2005–2010Shakhe–Solokh�Aul 520 380 580 600 600 650–680 1964–2010Sochi–Plastunka

540240

600420

650580 1963–1966

320 480 640 2003–2010Sochi–Sochi 300 370 330 500 360 650 2002–2012Mzymta–Kazachii Brod 300 330 340 460 380 600–620 2000–2012

8


ALEKSEEVSKII et al.

SPACE AND TIME DIVERSITY OF INUNDATIONS

The distribution of the number of inundations inthe period under consideration over the Black Sea areais uneven, notwithstanding its relatively small size.

The safest are the territories of Temryuk (less theKuban delta) and Anapa municipal formations (MF)(Fig. 1). With their plain and piedmont territory, smallrainfall, and rare channel network, they are inferior toother MFs in terms of the number and destructiveness

1

2

35

0 150 300 600 900 1200m

Nec

heps

ukho

R.

1

2

3

1

2

4

31

4

Fig. 3. Reconstruction of the boundaries and depths of the river�flow inundation in Novomikhailovskii Settl. during the inunda�tions of 2010 and 2012: (1) inundation zone; (2) major isobaths (with a step of 2 m); (3) secondary isobaths (with a step of 1 m);(4) settlement.



250 m 250 m

250 m 500 m

500 m 250 m

1

2

Vula

n R

.

Arkhipo�Osipovka

Mal. Zaichina Cr. Ol’ginka

Tu

R.

BLACK SEATesh

ebs

R.

BLACK SEA

BLACK SEA

BLACK SEA

Nec

heps

ukha

R.

Tuapse

Tuaps

e R.

Pauk

R.

Novomikhailovskii

BLACK SEA

BLACK SEABLACK SEA

Divnomorskoe

Lermontovo

Mez

yb’ R

.

Ade

rba

R.

Shapsukho R>

Dzh

ubga

R.

Dzhubga

250 m

Fig. 4. Lower reaches of Dzhubga, Mezyb', Shapsukho, Nechepsukho, Tuapse, Vulan and Tu rivers: (1) settlement territories;(2) flooding area during catastrophic inundations.

10


ALEKSEEVSKII et al.

of inundations. The material damage in these tworegions is often caused by the shower inundation ofparts of urban areas because of the hampered rainwa�ter discharge into the hydrographic network. Six inun�dations of such genesis have taken place since 1972 inTemryuk MF and 11 inundations have taken place inAnapa since 1960. The losses caused by a inundationof the summer 2003 alone at Taman St. were 2.5 mil�lion rubles [15]. A potential hazard is due to thenumerous artificial water bodies and their possiblefailure for different causes. The number of such waterbodies is the largest in Anapa MF (39 water bodieswith a total area of 3.5 km2) [22].

In Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, and SochiMFs, inundations are caused by high rain inundationsin rivers and water flows over watershed slopes. Farlesser are the numbers of inundations caused by theseasonal snow melting (Mezyb’ and Vulan (1981),Mzymta (2003 and 2013), etc.), breakthrough of rock�dammed lakes and ponds (Mzymta, 1968, 1977),water discharge from reservoirs (Dyurso, 2002), andother causes. Local flooding of populated localities byrain�storm waters have become more frequent. Themost recent such inundation took place on June 25,2015, in the Southern Sochi, having caused the lossesof in excess of $13.8 million. The low marine coastsuffers flooding during storm surges and setups, whichthreaten the port infrastructure and resort–recreationfacilities. Such losses emerged at the mouth of theDagomys R. (1968), in an area between the cities ofSochi and Adler (1992), and at the mouths of theMzymta (2003 and 2009) and Sukko (2007).

Because of the orographic features of the coast andthe local character of storm rainfalls, especially, in thecase of their whirlwind origin, the river�flow and run�off–shower inundations commonly affect a smallnumber of closely located watersheds and a small area.Therefore, the spatial correlation of Qmax for Black Searivers is relatively small and decreases rapidly with thedistance between the centers of gravity of watersheds.Within a radius of L ~ 50 km, the coefficient of corre�lation (r) between Qmax for nearby watersheds can berelatively high (≥0.6–0.7). At L ≈ 50–75 km, r < 0.6–0.5; at L ≈ 75–125 km, r < 0.5–0.4; and at L > 125–150 km, r tends to 0.2–0.1. The small values of r sug�gest that no reliable estimates of inundation hazardcan be derived only from the generalization of data ofregular observations on a network of distant gauges.However, the simultaneous formation of inundationson rivers located far from one another is still possible.For example, in August 2002, catastrophic inunda�tions occurred simultaneously on a considerable por�tion of the area under consideration and extendedeven to the southern part of the Anapa MF. The pas�sage of annual Qmax and, accordingly, inundations,sometimes coincides in Black Sea rivers and the riversof the northern slope of the Caucasus: Novorossiysk,Gelendzhik, on the one side, and the area from theGechepsin R. to the Afips and Psekups, on the other

side; Tuapse area, the northern part of the Great Sochiand the basins of Psekups, Pshish, and Belaya. Themost recent such event took place in July 2012.

Notwithstanding the specific annual distribution ofinundations and runoff (Table 1; Fig. 2), almost 71%of catastrophic inundations in the Black Sea area takeplace in summer; 29% of them took place in October–November. Almost 52% of large inundations tookplace in summer; 26%, in September–October; andthe rest 22%, in winter and early spring. The maincause of this disagreement is an increase in theextremeness of rainfall in the warm half�year. In therecent 50 years, the rains with a rate of in excess of 100mm/day were recorded 9 times in November–Febru�ary and not less than 46 times in May–October (85%of them falling on June–September). They were notrecorded instrumentally in March–April. Addition�ally, heavy rains fall onto the coast over longer periodin the cold half�year than in the warm one [20, 21].This reduces the likeliness of formation of hazardousinundations. An additional factor can be water�spouts,which form in the coastal zone from June to October.

The annual distribution of the cases of formation ofsmall and moderately hazardous inundations northand south of Tuapse City corresponds to the specificsof the water regime of rivers. They are nearly equallylikely in different seasons and months. Winteraccounts for 30% of such inundations; spring, for 12;summer, for 28; and autumn, for 30%. The safestmonths in terms of all types of inundations are Apriland March (1.5 and 3.5% of all inundations).

The number of inundations slightly increases overtime (Fig. 5). This trend has formed because of anappreciable increase in their number since the early1970s to the early XXI century and was due to theobvious regional signs of climate change (an increasein the temperature of air and seawater, total and max�imum daily precipitation, the number of whirlwinds,etc.) [5, 7, 13, 20, 23, 25]. The trend is statisticallyinsignificant (Spearman nonparametric rank correla�tion coefficient is 0.19; p = 11.5%, i.e., greater then α= 5%). The hypotheses regarding the preservation ofthe stationary character with respect to the varianceand mean are not discarded, though, as regards themean, the Mann–Whitney test shows a value close tocritical, i.e., the number of inundations in the secondpart of the period is statistically insignificant, though ithas increased.

The climatic background of the increase in thenumber of inundations is also confirmed by the obvi�ous correlation between the long�term course of theseevents and an increase in the duration of meridionalsouthern type of circulation, of which an increase inthe role of southern cyclones is typical [13]. In theearly 1960s (for the first time since 1899), the south�ward meridional transport of air masses exceeded itsmean value. On the other hand, an unprecedentedincrease in the duration of southern meridional pro�cesses started in the 1980s; this duration started



decreasing after 2000, though still keeping in excess ofthe mean level. The dynamics of the annual precipita�tion totals in the Krasnodar krai territory is similar [7].

A hydrological consequence of the climate changeswas an increase in water abundance, Qmax (especially,in the last quarter of the XX century) and the extreme�ness of maximal runoff in many rivers of the Black Seaarea (Fig. 6). The latter is confirmed, for example, bythe more frequent anomalously high values of Qmax (in1980, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2010, and 2012), as well as astatistically significant (at α = 5%) violation of the sta�tionarity in terms of variance in variations of the max�imal runoff.

The increase in the number of extreme inundationscan be a consequence of the large�scale and not alwayssound economic activity. This includes, primarily, thebuilding�up of river inundationplains and mouth allu�vial cones, the cessation (or reduction) of operationsof river channel dredging and maintenance of protec�tion dikes in the post�USSR period, the large�scaleland use on watersheds. Some researchers attribute theintensification of many hazardous natural phenom�ena, such as inundations, mudflows, collapses, andlandslides, in the XX century (as compared with theXIX century) to the latter factor.

The positive trend in the long�term variations ofthe number of inundations may extend to the future.The intense atmospheric frontal zone (a synoptic pre�dictor of abundant rainfall) is expected to form in thesummer with almost double frequency compared withperiod 1981–2000 and triple frequency compared

with 1961–1980 [17]. The regularity for winter isinverse.

The long�term dynamics of inundations featuressome cycles (Fig. 5) with a duration of 6–7 to 10–12years. Spectral analysis with the use of STATISTICA10 package revealed the highest peak in the peri�odogram and spectral density corresponding to aperiod of ~8 years and a much lower peak for a periodof ~7 years. Even lower peaks correspond to periods of3.5, 5, 11–12, and 23 years. Similar cycles were foundin the variations of the number of inundations all overthe Northern Caucasus in 1980–2013 [15] and in vari�ations of the number of inundations of category HP inKrasnodar krai rivers [7]. Therefore, the currentdecrease in Hmax and Qmax, and the issuing decrease inthe number of inundations does not mean that thistendency will persist even in the next year.

INUNDATION HAZARD AND THE DAMAGES CAUSED

The long�term recurrence of the runoff and runoff�shower inundations in Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik,Tuapse area, and Sochi is once in 2.1, 0.9, 0.7, and0.45 year, respectively. They are much rarer in Anapa(about once in 6 years). The share of small and mod�erately hazardous inundations is 87 in Novorossiysk,Gelendzhik, and Tuapse area, 92 in Sochi, and almost100% in Anapa. The other cases are large, cata�strophic, and outstanding inundations. The largestnumber of extreme (types IV and V) inundations tookplace in the rivers in Tuapse area: 4 cases in 1945–

6

4

2

2010200520001995199019851945 1980197519701965196019551950

0

1

2 3

N

Years

Fig. 5. Long�term dynamics of the number of floods N on the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar krai. (1) Cases of catastrophic andoutstanding floods; (2) smoothing curve; (3) linear trend.

12


ALEKSEEVSKII et al.

2013. The inundation risk in Sochi is high because ofthe large area, the large number and length of rivers,the high precipitation, and the number of populatedlocalities. The number of people killed by inundationsis largest in Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, and Tuapsearea. One of the causes is the largest height of waterrise, which is typical mostly of the rivers ofNovorossiysk, Gelendzhik, and Tuapse area (Fig. 1);another cause is the rapid formation and passage ofinundations in rivers of those areas because of thesmall size and, often, a mudflow type of the inunda�tions.

During the catastrophic and outstanding inunda�tions, the damage they cause is huge, whatever the sizeof the area and the number of watersheds affected by

precipitation and level rise in rivers. The losses due tothe outstanding inundation in August 1991 were eval�uated at $680 million, of which about 90% occurred inthe Black Sea slope of the Caucasus. Conversely, dur�ing the outstanding inundation of July 6–7, 2012, theoverwhelming majority of the huge damage and casu�alties occurred in the northern slope of the Caucasus.Therefore, in what regards the coast, this inundationdoes not belong to the category of outstanding. Almost40 were killed by the inundation of August 1991. Theinundation and erosion processes affected 42 popu�lated localities, 51 bridges, 16 water intake structures,31 industrial facilities, and 11 km of oil pipelines [25].The material losses caused by catastrophic inunda�tions are an order of magnitude less. The inundation in

2400

2000

1600

1200

800

400

2015201020052000199519751945 199019851980197019651960195519500

800

600

400

200

2015201020052000199519751945 199019851980197019651960195519500

1000

1

2

3 4

Qmax, m3/s

Years

Qmax, m3/s

Fig. 6. Long�term variations of maximal annual water discharges in the rivers of (1) Vulan, (2) Tuapse, (3) Shakhe, and (4) Sochi.



August 2002, according to different data, includingEMERCOM summaries, caused damage estimated at~$54 million (not less than 60 were killed, ~18.2 thou�sand suffered, and ~2.4 thousand were evacuated);that in October 2010 caused damage of ~$80 million(24 killed, ~5–7.5 thousand suffered, ~300 evacu�ated); and that in August 2012 caused damage of ~32million (4 killed, ~6.3 thousand suffered).

Overall, the annual economic risk associatedwith inundations of river flow and mixed genesis (run�off + showers + slope runoff) in the Black Sea coastcan be estimated at $13.3 million, and the social risk at2 persons. According to the data of the Ministry ofCivil Defense and Emergencies of Krasnodar krai, thezone of possible inundation embraces up to 74 populatedlocalities, almost 3100 buildings, and a population of18200.

CONCLUSIONS

The Krasnodar Black Sea area is among the mostvulnerable areas in the country in terms of inundationhazard. River�flow and runoff–shower inundationsdominate here in terms of occurrence, recurrence,and the size of damage. On the coasts and at rivermouths, inundations can be caused by wind setups andstorm surges, as well as interaction between river andsea waters. By their size, inundations are classified intosmall, moderately hazardous, large, catastrophic, andoutstanding with runoff and mixed genesis. The prob�ability of their formation is ~20, ~10, ~4–5, ~2–2.5and <1%. The losses they cause (for the entire affectedzone) vary from several tens of thousands to tens ofmillions and even several hundreds of millions US dol�lars. The annual economic and social risks associatedwith inundations of runoff and mixed genesis in theentire Krasnodar Black Sea area can be estimated at~$13 million and 2 persons.

The inundation hazard and occurrence are differ�ent in different regions of the coast. The most hazard�ous are Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, and SochiMFs. During high inundations, the entire bed of theriver valley can be inundated; therefore, the entire areais the zone of considerable risk for nature develop�ment. The major and hazardous transformation of theinundation wave takes place in the furthest down�stream reach and at the mouth, where populatedlocalities and major economic facilities are commonlysituated.

The catastrophic and large inundations most oftenoccur in summer and early autumn, while the occur�rence of small and moderately hazardous inundationsreflects the annual distribution of runoff and inunda�tions in Black Sea rivers.

The mean annual recurrence of inundations ofriver flow and mixed genesis for the entire coast isabout once in 0.3 year. At the long�term scale, thenumber of inundations and, hence, the damage theycause show a slight tendency toward an increase. In

addition, the number of inundations in the regionsshows cycles with duration of 6–7 to 10–12 years.

The revealed regularities taken into account willincrease the level of protection of the territory, facili�ties, and population in the Krasnodar Black Sea areathrough an increase in the scale of engineering mea�sures and their optimal distribution over the territoryand facilities and changes in their structure; higherefficiency of monitoring systems, forecasting criticalhydrometeorological conditions, and early warning.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study was supported by the Russian ScientificFoundation, project no. 14�17�00155.

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