inventory planning, demand management& sales forecasting a new approach
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Materi Training SCI, Inventory Planning, Fave Hotel 5-6 Juli 2012TRANSCRIPT
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TRAINING SERIES ON INVENTORY MANAGEMENT INVENTORY PLANNING
DEMAND MANAGEMENT & SALES FORECASTING: A NEW APPROACH
Fave Hotel Bandung5-6 Juli 2012
Sekretariat:Jl. Negla 19 SetiabudiBandung 40154 Indonesia
TeleponMobilee-mail
: +62 22 7000 1090: +62 821 1515 9595: [email protected]
Website Mailing listLinkedInFacebook
: www.SupplyChainIndonesia.com: [email protected]: Supply Chain Indonesia: Supply Chain Indonesia
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Agenda Training
Hari ke 1:
Proses manufacturing planning & control
Forecasting demand
Tips forecasting proses
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Agenda Training
Hari ke 2:
Tips mengukur forecast error
Distribution requirement plan (DRP)
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Manufacturing Planning and Control
Menyeimbangkan Supply & Demand
Penyebab ketidak seimbangan supply/demand:
• gagal memahami demand
• lead times yang panjang
• tidak mampu me respon perubahan order dari customer
Production & distribution efficiency
Resource availability and flexibility
Forecasts & customer orders
Customer relationship management
supply demand
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Demand Management
Forecasting
Order Management
Customer Relationship Management
Demand Management
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Hubungan Process S&OP
Resource Planning
Master Scheduling
Strategic Planning
Business Planning
Demand Management
Requirements PlanningLogistics Planning
Distribution Planning
Sales Plan
Financial Plan
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP)
Production (and Inventory) Plan
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Forecasting Demand
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kenapa perlu forecast?
Pemenuhan order customer lebih lama dari lead time produksi
Perlu waktu untuk menambah /mengurangi kapasitas: mesin, labor, supplier, warehouse
Untuk perencanaan budget keuangan
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manfaat forecast
alasan perlu dibuat forecast
Manfaat Satuan ukuran Forecast horizon
Perencanaan keuangan uang/ rupiah Sekarang & beberapa
thn ke depan
Rencana sales unit/rupiah mingguan, bulanan, kuartal
Rencana kapasitas unit/hours bulanan, kuartal, tahunan
Pengadaan material unit mingguan, bulanan, kuartal
Master scheduling unit mingguan, bulanan
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karakteristik forecast
Volume forecast: produk family /agregat untuk sales & capacity planning, horizon jauh ke depan (12 - 18 bulan)
Mix forecast: detail per SKU/masing2 item digunakan untuk master scheduling (1 bulan)
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Mengukur Forecast Performance
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Petunjuk Evaluasi Forecasts
Forecasts secara alami tidak sempurna
forecasts yang baik mendekati rata2 aktual
Forecasts secara alami pasti mengandung kesalahan
Perlu mengukur forecast error.
Perhatikanlah bias: demand yang secara konsisten selalu diatas atau dibawah forecast
Identifikasi variasidemand yang besar nilainya.
Identikasi peluang improvement forecast.
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Mengurangi Forecast Error
Cara paling baik meningkatkan akurasi adalah fokus untuk mengurangi forecast error
Forecast error memiliki bias
Terminology forecast error dapat menggunakan teknik quality control untuk mengatasinya
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Latihan: Hitung Mean Absolute Deviation
(MAD)
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Product A
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total MAD
Forecast (F) 1,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,00010,000
Actual (A) 1,2001,000800 800 1,3001,2001,100700 1,000900
Error (A - F)
Absolute error
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Distribution Requirement Planning
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Masalah Distribution Replenishment
Kapan, dimana, dan berapa banyak distribution inventory yang
dibutuhkan?resources apa yang dibutuhkan agar
dapat dikirim tepat waktu?
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Dokumentasi Training
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EDUCATION ● TRAINING ● RESEARCH ● DEVELOPMENT
Secretariat:
Jl. Negla 19 SetiabudiBandung 40154
Phone : 022 7000 1090Mobile : 0821 1515 9595
E-mail : [email protected]
Website : www.SupplyChainIndonesia.comMailing list : [email protected]
LinkedIn : Supply Chain IndonesiaFacebook : Supply Chain Indonesia
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