investing in dubai 080703bostonstrategies.com/images/investing_in_dubai_080703a.pdf• jebel ali...

November 2007

Boston Strategies International, Inc.

Global Infrastructure Series

b t t t i

Investing in Dubai

© 2008 Boston Strategies International, Inc.7/7/2008

www.bostonstrategies.com(1) (781) 250‐8150

This report has been prepared by Boston Strategies International at the request of CLIENT for the purpose of establishing its operating strategies. It may not be appropriate for other purposes or audiences. This report contains forward-looking statements andprojections with respect to anticipated future performance of CLIENT, suppliers, customers, and/or general or specific economic conditions and factors that are based on Boston Strategies International’s analysis of market trends and external data. Forward-lookingstatements and projections are not guarantees of future performance and involve significant business, economic and competitive risks, contingencies and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Accordingly, these projections and forward-looking statements maynot be realized and actual results may vary up or down. This report may not be reproduced or distributed without express written approval from Boston Strategies International.

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Summary• Historical view of shipping in the region

• Trade in the Middle East is booming• Dubai is a major trans-shipment hub• The majority of Middle East trade is conducted with Asia and Europe• The majority of Middle East trade is conducted with Asia and Europe• Lots of intra-regional trade• The UAE’s reliance on oil is decreasing rapidly

• Dubai and the changing face of the GCCInfrastructure is extensive and increasing in capacity• Infrastructure is extensive and increasing in capacity

• Dubai Internet City, Dubai Media City, and other complexes• Planned industrial infrastructure projects• Planned commercial and residential infrastructure projects• New transit system between Dubai and Jebel Ali• New transit system between Dubai and Jebel Ali• Planned airport infrastructure projects

• Logistics case studies• Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone• Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone Port• Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone – Port • Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone – Warehouses

• Outlook: the promises and challenges of growth• Advice for doing business in the UAE


Historical view of shipping in the regionHistorical view of shipping in the region


Trade in the Middle East is booming

4 00 0005,000,000

Historical evolution of trade in and out of Dubai

3,500,0004,000,0004,500,000

2,000,0002,500,0003,000,000

TEUs

500 0001,000,0001,500,000

ImportsExports

0500,000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Transhipment


Source: DP World

The majority of Middle East trade is conducted with Asia and Europe

S th

Merchandise imports of the Middle East by region

N th

Merchandise exports of the Middle East by region

North America

10%

South and

Central America

2%

North America

13%South and

Central America

1%

Asia28%

1%

Europe17%

Europe38%Middle

East17%

17%

CIS1%

Asia55%

CIS3%

Africa2%

17%

Africa3%Middle

East10%


Source: World Trade Organization

The UAE’s reliance on oil is decreasing rapidly

90%

Oil trade flow in the UAE

60%

70%

80%

40%

50%

60%

10%

20%

30%

0%

10%

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Oil % f T t l E t Oil % f GDP


Oil % of Total Exports Oil % of GDPSource: FCCI UAE

Dubai Internet City


Dubai Media City


Dubai is a major trans-shipment hub

• Dubai trans-shipped 1.9m containers so far this year, vs. 700,000 TEUs imported and 350,000 TEUs exported.

• 64% of all value is trans-shipped Jeddah Islamic Port 64% of all value is trans shipped• Jeddah Islamic Port• Jebel Ali• Port Rashid

1,500,000

2,000,000

Transshipment Containers

0

500,000

1,000,000

, ,

2004 2005 2006

TEUs

800000

Jebel Ali and Port Rashid Cargo Flows

300000400000500000600000700000800000

TEU's Import

E t

0100000200000300000

2006 2007

Export

*Note: 2007 figures are through August 2007


Sources: Saudi Ports Authority, DP World

g g g

Lots of intra-regional trade ($54b)

Oman3% Bahrain Yemen

Imports by country, 2005 ($billions)

Iraq Oman Bahrain

Exports by country, 2005 ($billions)

SaudiQatar

5%

Iraq3%

Bahrain3% 3%

Qatar5%

Iraq5% 3% Bahrain

2%

Saudi Arabia

27%

Israel8%

5%Saudi Arabia

35%Israel8%

UAE20%

Iran11%20%

Iran16%

Kuwait12%

UAE22%

11%Kuwait9%


Source: World Trade Organization

Major inter-regional trade flows in the GCC

Dubai Dubai Dubai Dubai 30%

35% Average growth rate 2004-2006

as % of UAE2005

as % of UAE2006

as % of GCC2005

as % of GCC2006 25%

30%Exports

Imports

Exports 23% 20% 7% 6%15%

20%

Imports 63% 63% 27% 28%5%

10%

0%

5%


Source: Analysis by Boston Strategies International, Inc.

Infrastructure is extensive and increasing in capacity

DohukKirkukMosul

Irbil

SulimaniyaTikritRamadi Hilla

DiyalaKut

DohaMuscat

SharjahBahrain

Kuwait Bandar Abbas

BaghdadRamadi

Karbala

Nasiriyah

Kut

NajafDiwaniya

Umm-Qasr

AmaraBasra

Samawa Dammam

RiyadhJeddah

Muscat

Abu Dhabi

Umm Qasr


Ports are small but growing fastSaudi Arabia and U.A.E. Ports Total Throughput

Tonnage 2004-2006

Reference Points:World Port Ranking Total

Throughput Tonnage 2005

35

40

45

350

400

450

500

15

20

25

30

Millions of tons 200

250

300

350

Millions of tons

0

5

10

15

0

50

100

150

2004 2005 2006


Sources: Saudi Ports Authority, AAPA

Trucking connections are extensive

1800

2000

UAE Trucking Tariffs ex Jebel Ali

1000

1200

1400

1600

DHS

400

600

800

1000DHS

0

200

2 X 2 or 1 X 40' Container & General Cargo 1 X 20' Container 7 ton Truck


Source: DP World

Dubai and changing face of the GCCDubai and changing face of the GCC


Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone


Jebel Ali Free Zone’s cargo intake is increasing rapidly…

120,000 7,000

Jebel Ali Free Zone Imports

80,000

100,000

5,000

6,000

60,000

3,000

4,000

Millions AEDMillions Kg

20,000

40,000

1,000

2,000

0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Weight (Kg) Value (AED) Expon (Value (AED))


Weight (Kg) Value (AED) Expon. (Value (AED))

Source: Analysis by Boston Strategies International, Inc.

…as well as the output

80 000

90,000 4,000

Jebel Ali Free Zone Exports

60,000

70,000

80,000

3,000

3,500

40,000

50,000

1 500

2,000

2,500

Millions AEDMillions Kg

10 000

20,000

30,000

500

1,000

1,500

0

10,000

0

500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Weight (Kg) Value (AED) Expon (Value (AED))


Weight (Kg) Value (AED) Expon. (Value (AED))Source: Analysis by Boston Strategies International, Inc.

Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone – Warehouses 2


Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone Port


Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone – Warehouses 1


Dubai growth in perspective

25,000

World port rankings

15 000

20,000

10,000

15,000

'000 TEUs

0

5,000

2004 2005


Source: Analysis by Boston Strategies International, Inc., Hong Kong Port Development Council

Planned industrial infrastructure projects

• $300 billion in GCC projects between 2007-2012 (Source: Middle East Economic Digest)( g )• $100 billion in power generation• $50 billion in industrial sector• Hydro-carbon sector which contributes to 47% of the GCC’s GDP will

account for the remaining project dollars.

• Relocation of main cargo port Mina Zayed to KhalifaPort by 2011y


Sources: U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce, UAEINTERACT

Planned commercial and residential infrastructure projects

• Fully-automated Dubai Metro system lines with a total of 47 stations, 10 underground, and 2 in Sharjah

• Emirates Industrial City 7 7million square meter industrial• Emirates Industrial City - 7.7million square meter industrial park

• Emirates City – 72 residential and commercial towers• Al Qaiwain – waterfront community of villas and apartments• Mina al-Arab - $2.7 billion beachfront development with

resorts, 5-star hotels, and 3,500 residential units• Fujairah Paradise and Fujairah Dana – villas, hotels and

malls• DEWA power generation capacity expansion andDEWA power generation capacity expansion and

desalinated water production- $5.45 billion by 2012


Source: U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce

New transit system between Dubai and Jebel Ali


Planned airport infrastructure projects• Over 20 years, airport development will exceed Dh75

billion (US$20.43 billion)

Infrastructure Project Estimated Cost (Dh) Estimated Cost (US$)

Abu Dhabi International Airport redevelopment 30 billion 8.17 billion

Expansion of Dubai International Airport 15 billion 4.08 billion

New Dubai World Central development 30 billion 8.17 billion

Sharjah International Airport redevelopment 227 million 61 billion

Ajman new airport 2.9 billion 800 million

Fujairah terminal & associated structures expansion 183 million 49 million

Al Ain International Airport redevelopment 75 million 20.43 million

Ra’s al-Khaimah airport expansion 1 billion 272 million


Source: UAEINTERACT

Specialized cargo capabilities

• Petroleum• Iron & steelIron & steel• Cool & Cold Stores• Chemicals


Advantages of setting up in the Emirates• Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZ)

• Entity setup (no partnership required)• 100% foreign ownership100% foreign ownership

• Taxes• No personal income tax• No corporate taxes for 15 years, a concession that is renewable• No currency restrictions • No import or export duties

• Modern efficient communications • In-house e-business support “My JAFZA” Portal ServiceIn house e business support My JAFZA Portal Service • Excellent support services from Dubai Ports Authority’s two modern container

terminals

• Easy labor recruitment• Repatriation

• 100% repatriation of capital & profits


Source: UAEINTERACT

UPS: A case studyUPS: A case study


UPS Airport Free Zone Middle East Hub


GAC Warehouse in Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone


Outlook: the promises and challenges of growth


Outlook

• Freight volume• Rate outlookRate outlook• Capacity outlook• Dubai’s role in 10 years


Advice for doing business hereAdvice for doing business here


Advice for doing business here

• Sources of information• Entity choiceEntity choice• Location choice

Service provider choiceSt ffi l & lt• Staffing, people & culture


Global Supply Chain Economists™Boston Strategies International helps supply chain executives make critical supply chain decisions that involve investment and risk by forecasting the evolution of supply markets and technologies. Our mission is to help our clients develop globally competitive supply networks that maximize Supply Chain Value.™ Our products and services include:

Industry Research that helps investors and policy makers identify emerging issues that affect their supply chains and• Industry Research that helps investors and policy makers identify emerging issues that affect their supply chains, and quantify the impact that they will have

• Cost and Pricing Analysis that helps financial and operational managers plan and budget by providing benchmark, best practice, and forecast data tailored to their companies' supply chains

• Strategy Consulting that helps supply chain leaders make high-stakes decisions related to mergers & acquisitions, market entr capital in estments o tso rcing off shoring and make or bentry, capital investments, outsourcing, off-shoring, and make-or-buy

David Jacoby: djacoby@bostonstrategies com

Boston, MA, USA445 Washington St

Wellesley, MA 02482 USA

Dubai, UAEExecutive Suite

P.O. Box 121601Sharjah, United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.)

Shanghai, China31F Jin Mao Tower88 Shi Ji Avenue

Shanghai 200120, China


David Jacoby: [email protected]

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