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1Investing In People | Population & Demography | 1

Investing In People | Population & Demography | 4

BudgIT is a civic organisation driven to make the Nigerian budget and publicdata more understandable and accessible across every literacy span.BudgIT’s innovation within the public circle comes with a creative use ofgovernment data by either presenting these in simple tweets, interactiveformats or infographic displays. Our primary goal is to use creativetechnology to intersect civic engagement and institutional reform.

Principal Lead: Gabriel Okeowo

Research Team: Ojiugo Uche, Olaniyi Olaleye, Oyebola Agunloye, Thaddeaus Jolayemi, Damilola Onemano, Oluwatosin Iseniyi

Design Concept: Agbaje Kehinde, Ogundipe Damilola

Contact: [email protected] +234-803-727-6668, +234-908-333-1633Address: 55, Moleye Street, Sabo, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria.

© 2019

Disclaimer: This document has been produced by BudgIT to provideinformation on budgets and public data issues. BudgIT hereby certifies thatall the views expressed in this document accurately reflect our analyticalviews that we believe are reliable and fact- based.Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, noresponsibility or liability is accepted for errors or for any views expressedherein by BudgIT for actions taken as a result of information provided inthis Report.

About BudgIT

Investing In PeopleIn Numbers

10.5m

13.4m

N0.3bn

46m

100Unemployed youth inNigeria as at Q3, 2018

Total number of out of school children according

to UNICEF report

FG average investmentto tertiary health

institutions

Total number of Nigerians who practice open defacation

according to 2016 UNICEF report

Take up 47% of loansgiven by Nigerian

banks

Nigerians


BudgIT is a civic organisation driven to make the Nigerian budget and publicdata more understandable and accessible across every literacy span.BudgIT’s innovation within the public circle comes with a creative use ofgovernment data by either presenting these in simple tweets, interactiveformats or infographic displays. Our primary goal is to use creativetechnology to intersect civic engagement and institutional reform.

Principal Lead: Gabriel Okeowo

Research Team: Ojiugo Uche, Olaniyi Olaleye, Oyebola Agunloye, Thaddeaus Jolayemi, Damilola Onemano, Oluwatosin Iseniyi

Design Concept: Agbaje Kehinde, Ogundipe Damilola

Contact: [email protected] +234-803-727-6668, +234-908-333-1633Address: 55, Moleye Street, Sabo, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria.

© 2019

Disclaimer: This document has been produced by BudgIT to provideinformation on budgets and public data issues. BudgIT hereby certifies thatall the views expressed in this document accurately reflect our analyticalviews that we believe are reliable and fact- based.Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, noresponsibility or liability is accepted for errors or for any views expressedherein by BudgIT for actions taken as a result of information provided inthis Report.

About BudgIT

Investing In PeopleIn Numbers

10.5m

13.4m

N0.3bn

46m

100Unemployed youth inNigeria as at Q3, 2018

Total number of out of school children according

to UNICEF report

FG average investmentto tertiary health

institutions

Total number of Nigerians who practice open defacation

according to 2016 UNICEF report

Take up 47% of loansgiven by Nigerian

banks

Nigerians


POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY


25,865is estimated to be born in Nigeria on January 1, 2019, accounting for 6.5% of the estimated 395,072 babies born globally

According to UNICEF 2019 New YearMessage, about

Nigeria: Population Growth

Source: World Bank

50,000,000

01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

1https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/other/10/World_Population_Projections_Press_Release.pdf

2https://www.unicef.cn/en/press-releases/new-years-babies-nearly-45000-children-will-be-born-china-new-years-day-unicef


Source: World Bank

Population and Fertility Rate for Selected Countries

Country Population Growth Rate Fertility Rate

China

India

United States

Indonesia

Brazil

Pakistan

Nigeria

Bangladesh

Russia

Mexico

Japan

Ethiopia

Philippines

Egypt

0.35%

1.08%

0.71%

1.03%

0.72%

1.88%

2.60%

1.02%

-0.05%

1.20%

-0.26%

2.42%

1.50%

1.80%

1.64

2.30

1.89

2.32

1.70

3.38

5.42

2.07

1.75

2.14

1.48

4.03

2.88

3.16


Nigeria: Death Rate (%)

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

10

20

30

01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Source: Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (NBS).

Fertility Rate by Geo-Political Zones

11 states above the national average of

are from the NorthernNigeria.

5.8%North West

7.4% North East

6.3%

North Central

5.0%

South West

4.5%South East

4.7%South South

4.3%

3NBS Labor Force Statistics - Volume 1 (Q3 2018)

So, what does Nigeria need to focus on urgently? What are the priority steps that the country needs to take so that its population would be a blessing rather than a burden?


Priority Action 1:Invest In Girls


Female Literacy in Nigeria by states

Source: Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, 2010

0

25

50

75

100So

koto

Jiga

wa

Bauc

hiYo

beK

ebbi

Zam

fara

Kat

sina

Gom

beN

iger

Kan

oA

dam

awa

Tara

baK

adun

aN

asar

awa

Born

oPl

atea

uBe

nue

Kw

ara

FCT

Abu

jaEb

onyi

Kog

iO

gun

Oyo

Del

taO

ndo

Lago

sC

ross

Riv

erA

kwa

Ibom

Osu

nEd

oBa

yels

aEk

itiEn

ugu

Ana

mbr

aRi

vers

Abi

aIm

o

(%)


Source:

Independent National Electoral Commission

Voter Registration by Age Group

18-355 1%

30%

15%

4%

36-50

51-70

70+

81%of registered votersare younger than50 years


There is no other solution that Nigeria requires to grow its tax revenues or provide jobs than to take active steps to deepen its private sector in terms of infrastructure growth, financing, and ease of doing business

Oluseun Onigbinde

4https://www.stearsng.com/article/small-business-big-government-scaling-smes-in-nigeria

Nigeria’s Population by Demography (2016)

Source: National Population Council

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-64

65-69

70-7475-79

80-84

85-89

20,518,404

18,501,820

31,116,156

27,549,964

22,221,265

16,816,694

13,038,009

10,096,763

8,891,384

6,322,797

5,851,717

2,845,486

3,374,357

1,585,140

1,832,402%

798,511

1,046,690

984,956


Priority Action 2:Nigeria Needs a Job Agenda


Crisis Incidences over years

Source: Council for Foreign Relations

0

Deaths

6,1360

Deaths

0

Deaths

2,4940

Deaths

Jan - Dec 2012

Jan - Dec 2015 Jan - Dec 2019

Jan - Dec 2013

1083 4065

Investing In People | Health | 20

HEALTH


Source: BudgIT Research, State Budgets

State 2019 Health Budget as % of total budget

KWARA 17.8%

KANO 15.2%

YOBE 14.2%

BAUCHI 14.0%

KATSINA 13.9%

SOKOTO 12.9%

NASARAWA 10.5%

BENUE 10.5%

BORNO 10.4%

JIGAWA 10.4%

OSUN 10.3%

IMO 10.0%

OYO 9.9%

GOMBE 9.1%

KOGI 8.7%

ADAMAWA 8.6%

KADUNA 8.4%

LAGOS 8.4%

ANAMBRA 7.9%

ONDO 7.8%

ABIA 7.5%

EBONYI 7.0%

NIGER 6.7%

ENUGU 6.7%

EKITI 6.0%

EDO 5.9%

DELTA 5.8%

CROSS RIVER 5.8%

KEBBI 5.7%

OGUN 5.6%

RIVERS 5.3%


5http://www.businessdayonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BD-HMO-Report-2018.pdf6http://www.africanstrategies4health.org/uploads/1/3/5/3/13538666/country_profile_-_nigeria_-_us_letter_final.pdf7https://worldpoverty.io/ NBS is yet to provide updates on Nigeria’s poverty numbers. 8http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/935321526032427605/pdf/PIDISDS-BHCPF-Concept-stage-05042018.pdf


Priority Action 3:Ensure Basic Healthcare Insurance for All Nigerians

2016 Health Expenditure per Capita (current US$)

Nigeria

Egypt

South Africa

Morocco

Angola

79.34

130.99

428.18

171.45

95.22Source: World Bank


9https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/media/2181/file/Nigeria-NNHS-2018.pdf10https://nigeria.actionaid.org/publications/2019/2018-third-party-monitoring-report-national-social-investment-programmes-nsip#downloads


Priority Action 4:Access to Quality & Fortified Food in Target Communities

Child Stunting Prevalence by Region

Source:

NBS NNHS 2018

0%NorthWest

20%

40%

60%

52%

NorthEast

42%

NorthCentral

29%

SouthWest

SouthSouth

20%

SouthEast

17%

22%

9https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/media/2181/file/Nigeria-NNHS-2018.pdf10https://nigeria.actionaid.org/publications/2019/2018-third-party-monitoring-report-national-social-investment-programmes-nsip#downloads


11https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/media/2181/file/Nigeria-NNHS-2018.pdf


Priority Action 5:Improve Investment in PHC Personnel & Infrastructure


Maternal Mortality Rate by State per 100,000

Source: 2018 National Health Management Information System, Ministry of Health Dashboard

696

599 590

547

367

324304

283 270256

243 238224

205189 184

166 160 152 151139 134 126 115

106 97 93 90 8271 71

4941 41 32 31 20

Stat

e A

vera

ge

0

200

400

600

800

STATE

Kebbi

Yobe

Jigaw

a

Katsin

a

Tarab

a

Zamfar

a

Sokoto

Bayels

a

Akwa I

bomKan

oRive

rs

Enugu

Gombe

Bauch

i

Lagos

Kaduna

Delta

Adamaw

aNiger

FCT A

bujaIm

oBorn

o

EbonyiAbia

Platea

uKogi

OndoOgun

Cross

River

Benue

Anambra

Kwara

Nasar

awa

Oyo EdoEkit

iOsu

n

Nigeria SSA

Outcome Indicators 2003 2008 2013 2016 2016

201 1571 28 1207 8

1007 56 9 70 53

545 576 576 547

5.75 .7 5.5 5.84 .9

42 41 37 44 34

24 23 29 32 19

Under 5 mortality per 1000 births

Infant mortality rate per 1000 births

Maternal mortality ratio per 1000 live births

Total Fertility Rate (children per woman)

Stunting, Height for age (<-2SD)%

Low Weight for height (<-2SD)

Wasting, Weight for height (<-2SD) 11 14 18 11 8

Table 1: HNP Outcomes In Nigeria 2003-2016

Source: Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys 2003-2013 and MICS 2016-17. Sub Saharan Africa(SSA) data is from World Development Indicators and is for 2015-16.The data are not strictly comparable and SSA data is just illustrative


Source: NBS 2018 Statistical Report, Medical and Dental Council of Nigeria 2017, NBS Population estimates

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2.92.8

2.5 2.5

0.80.6

NorthWest

NorthEast

NorthCentral

SouthWest

SouthSouth

SouthEast


Doctor density by State (per 10,000)

Edo

Lagos

Enugu

Oyo

Kwara

Rivers

Plateau

Abia

Osun

Bayelsa

Kaduna

Delta

Anambra

Cross river

Ogun

Ebonyi

Ekiti

Ondo

Akwa ibom

Sokoto

Benue

Imo

Yobe

Borno

Kogi

Nasarawa

Kano

Gombe

Niger

Taraba

Adamawa

Kebbi

Jigawa

Bauchi

Zamfara

Katsina

7.1

5.9

5.5

3.7

3.4

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.2

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

Source: NBS 2018 Statistical Report, Medical and Dental Council of Nigeria 2017


Priority Action 6:Increase Investments to Tertiary Health Institutions


12https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/reports/making-nigeria-open-defecation-free-2025-national-road-map


Priority Action 7:Invest in Safe Water& Clean Environments for Healthier Lives


EDUCATION

Investing In People | Education | 38

13UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 14UNICEF


Education Budget (NGN’bn)

Source: Nigerian Budget

0.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

12.50%

10.34%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12.04% 12.28%

9.20%

7.11%

6.48%

10.00%

7.50%

5.00%

2.50%

0.00%

Education budget as % of total budget

Ed

uc

ati

on

bu

dg

et

as %

of

tota

l b

ud

get

Year

Source: Nigerian Budget


Priority Action 8:Increase Education Funding to Power the Future

15APC 2014 Manifesto


16https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary?queries%5Bsearch%5D=WAEC


0

25

50

75

100

95.4 94.892.6

62

41.938

SouthEast

SouthSouth

SouthWest

NorthCentral

NorthEast

NorthWest

Urban vs Rural Literacy Rates (%)

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

84.0

Urban Rural

45.1

Source: NBS

Source: NBS


1https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/other/10/World_Population_Projections_Press_Release.pdf

2https://www.unicef.cn/en/press-releases/new-years-babies-nearly-45000-children-will-be-born-china-new-years-day-unicef


In total, N51bn had not been accessed by states as at July. Since states are meant to provide matching funds, this comes up to over N100bn which should be spent on education.

With 10.5m17 out-of-school children in the country, 100bn (or 10,000 per child) would be a bucket in an ocean of need; but a much needed bucket nonetheless.

The financing of basic education is however only one part of the puzzle. Since basic education is free, compulsory yet unpatrionised, we must look at, and address, the root causes of both poor primary school attendance and low outcomes.

The main reasons for low school attendance are deep seated cultural beliefs including early marriage, especially with girls in Northern Nigeria; favouring the now faulty almajiri system of education over western education as well as generational poverty. In addition to these, despite the advantage of the Child Rights Act which makes provision for universal basic education for every Nigerian children, the following Northern states—Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, Jigawa and Zamfara—are yet to domesticate it.

Consequently with the lack of an institutionalised law focused on children, access to quality education has also worsened with the creasing insecurity in the region. Following the kidnappings of students from Chibok and Dapchi, fewer parents will be enthusiastic to put their children in schools. To change things, it will take a combination of executed laws,

a change of deep seated cultural beliefs as well as an improved security system. Even when children attend school, low outcomes are still the norm. Nigeria for example ranks 139/141 in the skill set of graduates and 135 out of 141 in critical thinking in teaching18 in the ranking of the World Economic Forum’s Competitiveness Index.

A key challenge affecting outcomes for rural primary students is the relatability of educational materials and of lessons learned in English. The National Policy on Education of 1998 proposes the promotion and use of the language of the environment during primary education. The plan recommends: “The medium of instruction in primary school shall be the language of the environment for the first three years. During this period, English shall be taught as a subject. From the fourth year, English shall progressively be used as a medium of instruction and the language of the immediate environment and French shall be taught as a subject.”19

Despite this policy, the dearth of textbooks and teaching materials in several local languages means that children in early education are often taught in unfamiliar languages. This is disproportionately the case for those in rural areas where English is not readily and widely spoken.

17 UNESCO

The medium of instruction in primary school shall be the language of the environment for the first three years. During this period, English shall be taught as a subject. From the fourth year, English shall progressively be used as a medium of instruction and the language of the immediate environment and French shall be taught as a subject

18http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf19http://wbgfiles.worldbank.org/documents/hdn/ed/saber/supporting_doc/AFR/Nigeria/TCH/National Policy on Education.pdf


Priority Action 9:Increase Educational Materials in Local Languages


21https://web.archive.org/web/20141216154130/http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/ui-receives-biggest-allocation-of-intervention-funds/158465/

20Times Higher Education


Tertiary Institution Recurrent Expenditure

Capital Expenditure

Total Budget

University Of Nigeria, Nnsuka 18,151,712,256 74,478,641 18,226,190,897

Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria 17,267,128,692 176,520,862 17,443,649,554

University Of Calabar 16,340,969,122 94,478,641 16,435,447,763

University Of Ibadan 13,885,348,909 82,828,315 13,968,177,224

University Of Ilorin 10,251,843,107 74,478,639 10,326,321,746

Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Bauchi

5,381,400,909 99,527,660 5,480,928,569


Priority Action 10:Increase Linkages between Universities and Private Sector


Priority Action 11:Collaborate with Innovative Teacher Training Programmes for Impact

23 DailyTrust

Investing In People | Economy of Skills | 54


KEY FACTS TABLE

Singapore

1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010

Population (Million)* 3.0 4.0 5.1

Annual GDP growth (%)* 6.3 7.3 9.6

GDP per capital ($)* 12233 23073 42383

GDP by sector (%) 72.8

Services 63 65 72.8

Industry 37 33 27.2

FDI inflows (annual average) ($ million) 2341 9567 19880

FDI outflows (annual average) ($ million) 409 5030 13647

FDI inflows (% of GDP) 10 12 17.9

FDI inflows (% gross fixed capital formation) 28.3 35.1 50.9

Exports of goods and services (% GDP) 175.8 177.3 297

Imports of goods and services (% GDP) 175.2 163.6 258


Micro Enterprises –Highest Skills Shortage SMEs –Highest Skills Shortage

Information & communication: 72.8% Other Services Activities: 36.2%

Accommodation & Food Services : 71.1% Agriculture: 35%

Wholesale/Retail Trade: 67.8% Arts, Entertainment & Recreation: 33.3%

Other Services Activities: 67.3% Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management: 33%

Manufacturing: 66.9% Accommodation & Food Services: 32.6%

Source: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), SMEDAN


30Andela Website

Investing In People | Access to Capital | 62

30Andela Website31BMWI32Central Bank of Nigeria33Leadership NewsPaper


* percentage of population

2016 2018 Growth/decline

Banked population 38.30% 39.70% 1.40%

Remittances (send and receive)

24.20% 22.40% -2.20%

Savings witha bank 27.70% 21.00% -6.70%

Payments 12.10% 15.50% 3.40%

Receiveincome 8.40% 9.70% 1.30%

Loan with a bank 1.30% 1.30% Stable

Banking agents 2.60% 3.30% 0.60%


2015 2016 2017

No of Customers

Amount (Naira Million)

No of Customers


No of Customers


Up to N1m 2,860,397.00 252.3 2,332,503.00 226.51 2,209,792.00 122.37Above N1m to N10m 127,994.00 344.29 110,092.00 307.47 87,485.00 286.98Above N10m to N50m 24,444.00 546.83 20,432.00 448.34 17,883.00 382.6Above N50m to N100m

4,780.00 339.82 4,090.00 285.56 3,486.00 229.56

Above N100m to N500m

5,422.00 1,478.13 4,703.00 1,074.37 4,441.00 953.87

Above N500M to N1bn

1,493.00 1,002.11 1,110.00 788.83 1,205.00 744.72

Above N1bn 2,048.00 9,365.42 2,247.00 13,127.05 3,891.00 13,192.44TOTAL 3,026,578.00 13,354.17 2,475,177.00 16,291.64 2,328,183.00 15,953.39

Source: NBS Selected Banking Data Q1 2019

Banking Access Metrics


N ' Billion %

Total Credits @ Q1 2019 15,213.02 100

All others (1,887,877 customers) 7,768.51 52.57

Top 100 Customers 7,444.51 47.43

Top 50 Customers 5,613.28 35.77

Top 20 Customers 3,871.77 24.67

Top 10 Customers 2,856.69 18.2

Top 5 Customers 2,035.11 12.97

Source: NBS Selected Banking Data Q1 2019

Banking Access Metrics


42 World Bank Safety Nets Overview

Investing In People | Macroeconomy | 74


Source: National Bureau of Statistics

ACTIVITY SECTOR 2018 Current GDP (N’mn)

% of total GDP

AGRICULTURE 27,371,295.76 21.4%

TRADE 21,918,444.66 17.2%

MINING AND QUARRYING 13,648,664.47 10.7%

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION

12,979,873.09 10.2%

MANUFACTURING 12,455,527.91 9.8%

REAL ESTATE 8,632,817.11 6.8%

CONSTRUCTION 6,031,060.77 4.7%

PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SERVICES

4,862,488.55 3.8%

OTHER SERVICES 4,505,106.46 3.5%

FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE 3,996,755.06 3.1%

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 2,926,094.99 2.3%

EDUCATION 2,734,527.11 2.1%

TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE 2,328,367.79 1.8%

ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES

1,144,365.87 0.9%

ELECTRICITY, GAS ,STEAM AND AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLY

871,553.07 0.7%

HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES

821,691.13 0.6%

ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION

269,075.66 0.2%

WATER SUPPLY,SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND REMEDIATION

211,523.43 0.2%

ADMINISTRATIVE & SUPPORT SERVICES

27,594.92 0.0%


Major Agricultural Products Q2 2019

Code HS10 Value (N mn)

1207400000 Sesamum Seeds, whether or not broken 21,063.9

0801310000 Cashew nuts, in shell 18,271.1

1801000000 Good fermented Nigerian cocoa beans 10,938.6

0801320000 Cashew nuts, shelled 6,926.7

1801001100 Superior quality raw cocoa beans 5,910.7

0306170000 Other frozen shrimps and prawns 2,805.8

0910100000 Ginger 1,241.1

1804002000 Natural cocoa butter 1,043.5

1515500000 Sesame oil and its fractions 928.2

2106900000 Agro Food Items 914.2

0603900000 Other cut flowers & flower buds of kind suitable ornamental purposes fresh, dried, dyed

613.9

1801001800 Other quality raw cocoa beans 560.4

1211909000 Other plants and parts of plants used in perfumary, in pharmacy or for insec-tidial

442.8

1007100000 Sorghum seed 233.4

0303610000 Swordfish (Xiphias gladius) 182.1

1516200029 Other animal fats and oils and their fractions, refined or not, but not further prepared

166.5

0706900000 Other similar edible roots, fresh or chilled 108.3


44https://worldjusticeproject.org/our-work/research-and-data/wjp-rule-law-index-2019

Year % contribution to exports

2016 4.0

2017 4.6

2018 6.4

2019 13.1

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

83Investing In People | Population & Demography | 83Investing In People | Macroeconomy | 83

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