investment modeling for biofuels and biochemicals lawrence d. sullivan & company, inc. larry...
TRANSCRIPT
Investment Modeling for Biofuels and Biochemicals
Lawrence D. Sullivan & Company, Inc.
Larry Sullivan, Project Management Consultant
Adjunct Faculty, Trident Technical College
Carla M. Wood, Ph.D.
Lawrence D. Sullivan & Company, Inc.
Presentation for the Sixth Annual Biofuel Law and
Regulation Conference
University of IllinoisUrbana – Champaign, Illinois
May 2, 2014
Lawrence D. Sullivan – Past & Present
20 Years in Oil & Gas
(Dresser, Imperial Chemical
Industries & Conoco/Dupont)
as Petroleum Engineer and
Manager
Last 12 Years in Biofuels,
Biomass, Biochemicals - Early
Stage Firms
15 Years Living and Working
Outside the USA – SEAsia,
Middle East, EU & Africa
Speaker at 25 Conferences –
Beginning at 2004 Biotechnica
Advisor to Gerson Lehrman
Group Clients as Top 2% Expert
Due Diligence for GLG Clients
Turner, Mason & Company - Oil
Refiner Acquisitions of Stranded
Biofuel Assets
Adjunct Faculty at Trident
Technical College
Carla M. Wood, Ph.D.Academic CareerB.S., The Evergreen State College - Biochemistry
Ph.D., Texas A&M University – Biochemistry & Cell Biology
Post Doctorate, Baylor College of Medicine, Depts. of Cell Biology – Human DNA Repair, Cellular Transformation & Mutagenesis
Staff Scientist, NIH, National Institute on Aging, Molecular Genetics – Genes of Senescence, Stress Response, & DNA Damage
Research Assistant Professor, University of Minnesota – 1) Expression Analysis of Non-Receptor Protein Tyrosine Kinases in Childhood Leukemia 2) Biomarkers in Multiple Myeloma
Patent Law Technical Advisor, Merchant & Gould, LLC, Minneapolis & Seattle
Consulting CareerConsultant at L. D. Sullivan & Co. Since 2004 (Owner Since 1998)
Advisors to Gerson Lehrman Group Clients - Top 2% Experts
Due Diligence for GLG Clients
Expert Witness
Outline of Presentation – Themes
1. What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and who
uses it?
2. Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) on investments in raw
materials production (e.g., Extraction)
3. ROCE on the Basic Chemicals (generally has “mining”
components)
4. ROCE on the conversion of raw materials to petrochemical
intermediates (and Basic Chemicals as well as Seven
Building Blocks)
5. Capital Investment Expectations and Conclusions
References and Sources:
www.bizstats.com
Measuring and Addressing Investment Risk in the Second-Generation Biofuels Industry. ICCT. December 2013. www.theicct.org Addresses conversion of raw materials
NexantThinking™ “Next Generation Biofeedstocks: Resources for Renewables” www.Nexant.com Addresses raw materials
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
Formula:Terms:
Return on Capital Employed (both equity and debt) or Equity
Beta of 1.0 moves with markets
Market Return is set by Investors
Risk Free example is United Kingdom Perpetual Bonds
ICCT reports that Beta on public biotech requires high ROCE for investment
The difference between return on assets and return on equity in a general sense
is based on gross versus net profits. Assets usually represent the market price
of durable goods such as real estate, automobiles, and heavy construction
equipment, and businesses themselves or investments like bonds that hold their
value over time. Equity, on the other hand, represents what the actual monetary
value of something is after all outstanding debts and liens have been subtracted
from it, and this can also include taxes that must be paid such as those on
retirement accounts or annuities when they are cashed in. Both return on assets
and return on equity calculations are often used in the investment community to
ascertain what the value of a business is if it has to be liquidated, or how much
built up value it has for determining a safe level of borrowing for business
growth. More specifically, however, return on assets (ROA) and return on equity
(ROE) are metrics that corporations use based off of company earnings or net
income to determine if the company is producing what is considered a healthy
profit and growth margin.
ROCE – Oil and Gas Extraction (2010)
High Risk, High Rewards
Return on Sales 13.43%
Return on Assets 6.67%
Return on Net Worth 13.04%
Quick Ratio 1.08
Current Ratio 1.38
Inventory Turnover 34.40
Note: Oil prices in 2010 averaged $80/bbl (WTI - Cushing, OK) and natural gas was $4.48 per 1,000,000 cubic feet at the wellhead.
ROCE - Extraction Industries: Agriculture and Forestry (2010)
Return on Sales 7.81%
Return on Assets 8.30%
Return on Net Worth 19.41%
Quick Ratio 0.70
Current Ratio 1.31
Inventory Turnover 8.88
Note: Covers a Bizstats’ range (LLC, Inc., MLP) with Net Assets from $1 to $500,000 which would include farmer-owned cooperative societies (LLCs, Inc.), independent forestry owners and small time miners. Does not cover processors like ADM, Cargill, Bunge, etc. or Real Estate Investment Trusts in forestry, agriculture and mining like Plum Creek or Hancock.
ROCE - “Basic Chemicals” (2010)
Return on Sales 2.57%
Return on Assets 1.37%
Return on Net Worth 4.52%
Quick Ratio 0.74
Current Ratio 1.08
Inventory Turnover 9.96
Notes: Covers Bizstats data for both the chloro-alkali industry (NaCl, NaOH, Na, Cl, soda ash, bicarbonate, NaO) and the sulfur (H2SO4) from both synthetic to mining. Not petrochemicals or TiO2.
ROCE - Petroleum Refining (2010)
Return on Sales 6.14%
Return on Assets 3.83%
Return on Net Worth 9.34%
Quick Ratio 1.13
Current Ratio 1.21
Inventory Turnover 53.80
Notes: Covers Bizstats data for both independent refiners (e.g., Tesoro, Valero) and integrated oil & gas production companies who own refinery assets (e.g., Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, BP). It does not cover NYSE traded part State Owned Enterprises (SOE) of China, Brazil, Norway.
ROCE - conversion of raw materials to petrochemical intermediates (2010)
Return on Sales 4.36%
Return on Assets 2.44%
Return on Net Worth 11.30%
Quick Ratio 0.97
Current Ratio 1.53
Inventory Turnover 7.76
Notes: this includes Bizstats heading “resins, synthetic rubber, and fibers & filaments” for example polypropylene and not propylene, or PET resin and not para-xylene, ethylene glycol or dimethyl terephthalate.
What is Corn (Maize) Ethanol All About?Missouri is “The Show Me State”
Source: University of Missouri - http://agebb.missouri.edu/
Corn (Maize) Ethanol – Follow the MoneyHigher Yields, Better Basis and Farm Incomes UpUS Farm Policy is a Success
Bushels Per Acre!
Fundamental Economics - Petrochemicals
If integrated to large refinery complex (BASF, Shell, ExxonMobil,
Saudi Aramco, etc.), then petrochemicals are world class cost basis
If a stand-alone facility, then purchasing of the key intermediates
could be disadvantaged depending upon locations in the world.
Historic fuels/refinery ROI over 40 years averages 9.3%
Historic stand alone petrochemicals are 16.7%
Most integrated refinery and petrochemical plants have ROI
between the two above since locations can widely vary the ROI.
Billings, Montana and US Gulf Coast are examples.
Source – www.bizstats.com
As Corn (maize) Producers have Done Wellso have the Petroleum (Oil) Producers – However,natural gas producers need to export from US(note “nominal” US$ per million btu)
Fundamental Economics - Petrochemicals
If integrated to large refinery complex (BASF, Shell,
ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, etc.), then petrochemicals are
world class cost basis
If a stand-alone facility, then purchasing of the key
intermediates could be disadvantaged depending upon
locations in the world
Historic fuels/refinery ROI over 40 years averages 9.3%
Historic standalone petrochemicals are 16.7%
Most integrated refinery and petrochemical plants have ROI
between the two above since locations can widely vary the
ROI
Source – www.bizstats.com
Can a completely
integrated biorefinery
make high ROCE?
Closest analogue is the
Cargill Nature Works/Corn
Wet Mills and the world
class pulp & paper mills
(Chemrec/UPM in Sweden
or MWV in US)
Petrochemicals from natural gas and condensates are cost “advantaged” low cost, low molecular weight (MW)
Petrochemicals from petroleum crude oil are “disadvantaged” today due to high MW or energy density
Lipids can only come from land or algae (e.g., Solazyme)
Lowest costs are SEAsia (palm) and Brazil (sugar)
Race is to build high MW from low cost MW like sugar or petrochemicals
Conclusions
Financial analysts use a variety of tools to evaluate biofuel, biomass, algae, biochemical, etc. investments today
CAPM is a common tool for equity analysts
Historic data and benchmarks such as Bizstats allow analysts to advise fund mangers
To Review – ROCE (Net Equity and Debt):
Oil and Gas Extraction 13.04%
Cooperative Ag and Forestry 19.41%
Basic Chemicals 4.52%
Petroleum Refining 9.34%
Conversion to Petrochemicals 11.30%
This emerging industry needs to demonstrate over 20% ROCE to attract capital against these benchmarks using existing IPO Beta and CAPM but not for biopharmaceuticals
Thank you for your time and attention to our presentation