investment research weekly credit update - danske bank...12 september 2014 senior analyst jakob...

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 11 of this report. www.danskeresearch.com

Investment Research

Headlines

Slightly bearish tone in credit markets this week.

Full throttle ahead in the primary markets.

New methodology for banks flagged by Moody’s.

High regulatory activity in the financial market.

Market commentary

After the strong tone in the market last week on the back of the dovish ECB

announcement, this week’s tone was more cautious fuelled by sluggish unemployment

numbers out of the US and continued geopolitical uncertainty. The uncertainty

surrounding the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict and its spill-over effects on the

European economy got another notch with the EU imposing additional export sanctions

against Russia. The Scottish independence referendum, the outcome of which remains

highly uncertain, has fuelled separatist movements in other parts of Europe, i.e. in

Belgium (Flanders), Spain (Catalonia), and Northern Italy. The uncertainty that such

sovereign break-ups would entail has also weighed on spreads.

This cocktail of wobbly issues caused the Itraxx Main and cross-over to widen some 3bp

and 12bp, respectively. That said, we stress that spreads and in particular yields remain at

very low levels in a historical context. This, coupled with a still benign investor

sentiment, should continue to bode well for new issuance activity.

Primary market activity picking up

This week has been littered with new issues ranging across most rating categories,

maturities, countries and seniorities. Demand remains very strong in the investment

community and most issuers have seen their primary transactions oversubscribed several

times. Interestingly, the hybrid bond market was kept alive with an issue from Origin

Energy. From the Nordic region it was in particular the SEK market that was on the

forefront with issues from Fortum Värme, Heimstaden and Volvo Finance. Finally,

Nordea announced its intentions to issue AT1, further expanding this evolving asset class.

Selected new issues

Name Rating Coupon Currency Tenor Size Spread*

EdP Ba1/BBB- Fix EUR 8Y 1bn +217 Lagardere NR/NR Fix EUR 5Y 0.5bn +177 Glencore Baa2/BBB Fix EUR 8Y 0.7bn +117 Origin Energy (hybrid) Ba1/BB+ Fix EUR NC5Y 1bn +367 Fortum Värme NR/BBB+ Fix & Float SEK 2Y & 5Y 2.5bn 5y fix +63 Heimstaden NR/NR Float SEK 5Y 1bn +300 Volvo Baa2/BBB Float SEK 2Y 3bn +42

Note: Ratings are senior unsecured ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch

* Mid-swap for fixed, discount margin for FRNs, in basis points

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

12 September 2014

Senior Analyst Jakob Magnussen, CFA +45 45 12 85 03 [email protected]

Contents

Market commentary 1

Selected charts 5

Recently published research 7

Official and shadow ratings 8

Weekly Credit Update

iTraxx Europe (investment grade)


iTraxx Crossover (high yield)


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2 | 12 September 2014 www.danskeresearch.com

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New EBA report on European banks

EBA published its six annual report on European banks (built on aggregate numbers).

Results show that the CET1 ratio of the largest European banks (42 banks) would be on

average 10.1% under fully implemented CRDIV/CRR compared to a ratio of 12.4%

under the current regulation (impacted by both changes in definition of capital as well as

calculation of RWA). Thus the largest banks have a CET1 capital shortfall of only

EUR0.1bn to reach the minimum of 4.5% and EUR11.6bn to reach the minimum 7%.

Compared to the last exercise, the capital shortfall has decreased 68% from EUR36.3bn.

Regarding the LCR, the average number is 107.3% and more than 70% of the larger

banks already fulfil the 2019 requirement of minimum 100%. The total shortfall of liquid

assets is EUR124.5bn. Results for the NSFR indicate that on average the largest banks

have 102% and group 2 banks have 109%. The shortfall of EUR473bn corresponds to 2%

of total assets.

Finally, the average leverage ratio of the largest banks would be 3.7% (versus 3%

minimum) and the shortfall would be EUR22.1bn.

The results confirm that European banks are in deleveraging mode through asset sale,

RWA exercises, higher profitability and direct capital raises, which improves the credit

metrics of the banks but blurs the vision of central banks of increasing activity and

support growth through the banks’ lending channels. We expect a reversal of this trend

when the Comprehensive Review from the ECB is published late October, i.e. banks

starting to focus more on growth and profitability and less on deleveraging.

Moody's published proposed bank rating methodology

On Tuesday Moody's published its proposed bank rating methodology with a request for

comments by 7 November 2014. The new methodology will replace the current one from

2007. In short, the new methodology is built on four components: Baseline Credit

Assessment, Affiliate Support, Loss Given Failure (LGF) and Government Support. The

LGF component is a response to the new resolution regimes up for implementation in

many countries and distinguishes loss severity by individual creditor classes for banks

subject to resolution, for example that deposits may be preferred to senior unsecured debt

in resolution. Moody's also introduced a macro profile, which together with five financial

factors is set to capture the solvency and the liquidity risk, which sums up to the bank's

stand-alone rating or Baseline Credit Assessment.

Although it is still early days, we expect Moody's to reaffirm or move one notch from the

current ratings of the Nordic banks due to the new methodology. We base this view on

the larger emphasis on macro conditions and use of subordinated debt benefitting the

stand-alone credit profile, while the expected introduction of a resolution regime might

reduce the government support.

Moody's confirmed negative outlook on Swedish banks

On another note, Moody's yesterday confirmed its Negative Outlook on the Swedish

banking system. Moody's recognises the stable and improving underlying economic

conditions in Sweden (relatively good expected GDP growth in the coming years) but

highlights that new European regulation (BRRD and SRM especially) put pressure on

long-term bank ratings as implicit government support is expected to decrease.

Consequently, the four largest Swedish banks are also on Negative Outlook.


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Swedish capital requirements decided

On Wednesday the Swedish FSA finally decided upon the new capital requirements for

Swedish banks. The decision was in line with the previous proposal from May this year

and thus not a big surprise to the market. As of 1 January 2015 the four largest Swedish

banks will have to comply with 5% systemic risk buffer in common equity tier-1 capital

(CET1) on top of the 7% as per Basel III. In addition, the Swedish FSA said that the

Swedish countercyclical buffer initially will be set at 1% CET1 and that a risk weight

floor of 25% for both Swedish and Norwegian mortgages would be part of the pillar 2

requirement. In total we estimate that the total individual CET1 requirements range from

14.9% for Nordea up to 19% for Swedbank.

Capital requirements for Swedish Banks

Note: *Fully loaded Basel III figures

Source: Swedish FSA, Danske Bank Markets

CET1 requirements Nordea Swedbank SHB SEB

Pillar I requirements

Minimum CET1 requirement 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

Capital conservation buffer 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Systemic risk buffer 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Norway countercyclical buffer 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Sweden countercyclical buffer 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

Total pillar I 10.3% 10.6% 10.6% 10.4%

Pillar II requirements

Systemic risk buffer 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Individual add-on 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Swedish 25% RW floor 0.8% 4.9% 3.2% 1.6%

Norwegian 25% RW floor 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%

Total pillar II 4.6% 8.4% 7.0% 5.1%

Total requirements 14.9% 19.0% 17.6% 15.5%

Buffer incl. possible capital planning buffer 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Total requirements incl. buffer 15.9% 20.0% 18.6% 16.5%

Reported CET1 per Q2 14* 15.2% 20.9% 20.1% 16.0%

Excess CET1 per Q2 14 -0.7% 0.9% 1.5% -0.5%


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Introduction of supervisory diamond for the Danish mortgage institutions

On Thursday the Danish FSA published its awaited supervisory diamond for the Danish

mortgage institutions similar to the one already in place for the Danish banks.

Specifically, the diamond relates to lending growth, the borrower's interest rate risk, the

total amount of interest-only loans, loans with short-term adjustable rate (ARM) and large

exposures. The diamond is not a new law and serves as an early warning for the

supervisor if the individual institute is taking too much risk. At present, the combined

mortgage sector does not fulfil three out of the five thresholds in the diamond. However,

the shortfalls are already addressed by the institutions (e.g. higher prices for IO loans,

ARMs etc.) which means that the front book more or less complies with the new

requirements. Phasing-in period will be until 2020 for the threshold regarding interest-

only loans and ARMs, while the remaining three thresholds are due from 2018.

In addition to the new supervisory diamond the FSA has proposed that new homeowners

will have to come up with min. 5% equity when buying a home and that mortgage loans

can only be granted to commercial real estate properties with positive cash flow. Both

initiatives will be implemented through amendments to existing regulations but in

wording that opens up for deviations if justified in the particular case (e.g. young

homeowners with high income but no savings).

The proposed supervisory diamond is in public consultation period until 8 October 2014

but we expect it to be implemented as proposed.


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iTraxx (Europe) vs CDX (US) Investment grade corporate yields

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

Nordic corporates vs iTraxx Nordic banks 5Y CDS spreads


Corporate BBB bond yield vs EuroSTOXX dividend yield 3M Libor OIS spreads


Financials spread vs non-financials (Industrials), A-rated



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Europe fund flows Sweden fund flows Norway fund flows

Source: Macrobond Source: Macrobond Source: Macrobond


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Recently published research

Credit Update – SAS Q3 14

SAS reported a decent Q3 14 due to solid cost reductions and despite fierce price

pressure. Adj. net debt to EBITDA was flat at 3.3x but due to continued difficult market

conditions we expect this number to rise to 4.4x for FY2014. SAS maintains expectations

of a positive pre-tax profit in 2014. We view SAS's liquidity as adequate and see SAS as

a 'B' issuer indicatively on a corporate level. SAS has a cash position of more than

SEK6bn and current financial debt liabilities of SEK2.3bn.

http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/abo/CreditUpdateSASQ314100914/$file/CreditUpdate_SAS_Q314_100914.pdf


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Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank Markets’ shadow ratings

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAkelius Residential Ab BB+ Pos BB Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal SELLAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Åse Haagensen HOLDBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B+ Stable Øyvind MossigeBwg Homes Asa BB Stable BB- Nils AspeliCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Kasper F. LarsenCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Brian Børsting SELLCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Kasper F. LarsenDanske Bank A/S A Neg Baa1 Pos A StableDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDfds A/S BB+ Stable Kasper F. LarsenDna Ltd BBB- Stable Kasper F. LarsenDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable Nils AspeliEika Gruppen As BBB Stable Nils AspeliElectrolux Ab BBB Wr WD Brian Børsting HOLDElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Kasper F. Larsen BUYEntra Eiendom As A- Stable Nils AspeliFarstad Shipping Asa BB Stable BB- Åse HaagensenFinnair Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingFingrid Oyj AA- Neg A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYFortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen SELLFred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Stable Sondre StormyrG4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting BUYGetinge Ab BBB- Neg Louis LandemanHelgeland Sparebank Baa2 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable Wiveca SwartingHusqvarna Ab BBB- Stable Louis LandemanInvestor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYIss A/S BBB- Stable Baa3 Stable Brian Børsting HOLDJernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Åse HaagensenJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Neg Thomas M. Hovard BUYKesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads RosendalKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedMeda Ab BB Neg Louis LandemanMetsa Board Oyj B+ Stable B2 Pos Mads RosendalMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Neg Mads Rosendal BUYMjolby-Svartadalen Energi Ab BBB+ Watch Louis LandemanNcc Ab BBB- Stable Louis LandemanNeste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDNokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Stable BB Stable Kasper F. Larsen HOLDNokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenNordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLNorth Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB Stable BB- Sondre StormyrNorwegian Air Shuttle As BB- Stable B+ Brian BørstingNorwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Nils AspeliNykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYNynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob MagnussenOdfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian RøedOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Nils AspeliOlympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Åse HaagensenOutokumpu Oyj B- Pos Mads RosendalOrkla Asa BBB+ Pos Nils AspeliPohjola Bank Plc AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLPosten Norge As A- Stable Nils AspeliPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel BerginProsafe Se BB Stable Åse HaagensenRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian BørstingSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Wiveca SwartingSampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSandvik Ab BBB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLD

S&P Moody's FitchDanske Bank Recomm.


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Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank Markets’ shadow ratings

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSas Ab B- Stable Wr Pos Brian BørstingSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDScania Ab A- Pos Mads Rosendal HOLDSchibsted Asa BBB Stable Nils AspeliSeadrill Ltd BB+ Stable BB Sondre StormyrSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting HOLDSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanSkf Ab BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDSolstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Åse HaagensenSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As BB- Stable Lars HolmSparebank 1 Nord Norge A- Stable A2 Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Smn A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSparebank 1 Sr Bank Asa A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSponda Oyj BBB- Stable Louis LandemanSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob MagnussenStatkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDStatoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen SELLStena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Brian Børsting BUYStockmann Oyj Abp BB- Neg Mads RosendalStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian RøedStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Neg BB- Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSwedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginSwedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting HOLDSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal BUYSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSydbank A/S Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDTallink Group As BB Stable BB- Jakob MagnussenTalvivaara Mining Co Plc C Mads RosendalTdc A/S BBB Stable Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Kasper F. Larsen HOLDTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Kasper F. LarsenTele2 Ab BBB Stable Kasper F. LarsenTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable BBB+ Neg Kasper F. Larsen HOLDTelenor Asa A- Pos A3 Stable Kasper F. Larsen HOLDTeliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Stable Kasper F. Larsen SELLTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYThon Holding As BBB+ Stable Nils AspeliUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB Pos Ba1 Stable BB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDVasakronan Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanVattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen HOLDVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Kasper F. Larsen BUYVolvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal BUYWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian RøedYit Oyj B Neg Louis Landeman

Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Recomm.


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Ola Heldal

TMT (+47) 85408433 [email protected]

Henrik René Andresen

Credit Portfolios (+45) 45 13 33 27 [email protected]

Brian Børsting

Industrials (+45) 45 12 85 19 [email protected]

Mads Rosendal

Industrials, Pulp & Paper (+45) 45 14 88 79 [email protected]

Lars Holm

Financials (+45) 45 12 80 41 [email protected]

Jakob Magnussen

Utilities, Energy (+45) 45 12 85 03 [email protected]

Åse Haagensen

High Yield, Industrials (+47) 22 86 13 22 [email protected]

Fixed Income Credit Research

Louis Landeman

TMT, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80524 [email protected]

Thomas Hovard

Head of Credit Research (+45) 45 12 85 05

[email protected]

Find the latest Credit Research

Danske Bank Markets: Bloomberg: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch DNSK<GO>

Gabriel Bergin

Strategy, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80602 [email protected]

Niklas Ripa

High Yield, Industrials (+45) 45 12 80 47 [email protected]

Bjørn Kristian Røed

Shipping (+47) 85 40 70 72 [email protected]

Wiveca Swarting

Real Estate, Construction (+46) 8 568 80617 [email protected]

Sondre Dale Stormyr

Offshore rigs (+47) 85 40 70 70 [email protected]

Øyvind Mossige

Oil services (+47) 85 40 54 91 [email protected]










http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch








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Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske

Bank’). The author of the research report is Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst.

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in the research report.

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