investment yearbook 2014 (1)
DESCRIPTION
Investment bookTRANSCRIPT
1 4
7 Technical Analysis 6
5 8
(Healthcare) ? 15
1 19
25
ECB FED Full Steam of QE 30
Occupy Central 35
QE 43
1998 ? 48
5 2014 52
58
:
.
.
.
. ( )
“ ” ?
1
// Page 4
// Page 4
“ ”
? ? ...
, , !!!
1
dlitemag.com 6 . 2557
dlitemag.com 6 .. 2557
Line Inbox " ?"
Technical Analysis
1. Technical Analysis
2.
3.
4. MACD False Signal Moving Average Cross
5.
6. Drawdown Limit Loss Money Management
7. ... 1.
100%
“ ”
Pantip.com 16 . 2557
Pantip.com 16 .. 2557
- (struggle of existence)
- (survival the fittest )
( )
5
2. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)
1. the average weekly hours worked by manufacturing workers 2. the average number of initial applications for unemployment
insurance 3. the amount of manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods
sand materials 4. the speed of delivery of new merchandise to vendors from
suppliers 5. the amount of new orders for capital goods unrelated to
defense 6. the amount of new building permits for residential buildings 7. the S&P 500 stock index 8. the inflation-adjusted monetary supply (M2) 9. the spread between long and short interest rates 10.consumer sentiment
LEI Conference Board
5
3. Trailing PE Ratio P/E
4. Market Breadth
Technical Analysis New
High New Low 1 New High New Low … Elliott Wave Golden Cross & Dead Cross Divergence
5
5. ISM Index ?? ISM Institute for Supply Management
Business Sector Institute of Supply Management Arizona 5 1. Production levels 2. New orders placed 3. Inventory Levels 4. Supplier deliveries 5. Employment environment
5 5
1. Treasury Yield Curve Market Fund Flow 2. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) 3. Economic Fundamental 4. Trailing PE Ratio Valuation 5. Market Breadth Technical Analysis 6. ISM Index Market Sentiment
5 5 5
Pantip.com 13 . 2557
Pantip.com 13 .. 2557
? CEA 2040 35% GDP
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) Global Life Sciences and Health Care Industry Group analysis of United Nations data statistics ( ) ( 60 ) 1.9% 1.2% 60 3 50 2,000 .. 2050
3
(Healthcare) ? Mega Trend Trend
1. (Pandemic) 2009-2011 H1N1 85 250,000 2. 2 3. Bypass 3% 10 1.5% 4. a) b) ()
Healthcare Sector
???? BGH, BH, BCH Healthcare PE Healthcare (Biotech)
Master Fund JPMorgan Global Healthcare KF-HEALTHD .
iammrmessenger.com 20 . 2557
iammrmessenger.com 20 .. 2557
2-3
“”
( ) ..
Pro-Euromaiden Pro- Russian
??
Pro-Russian ^^ . .
NATO
25 .. .. 2534
48 " "
" "
... ? ... ?
PIIGS PIIGS ECB IMF 2012-2013
1 16 .. 2557 96.8% 21 .. !
QE ( QE Tapering)
( ) 30% 1 3
100%
EU EU 1 NATO
? NATO , , , . . . .
... ? NATO
... ?
. ^^ 2. !!!
Pantip.com 30 . 2557
Pantip.com 30 .. 2557
"anti-terrorist operation“ 40 14 Luhansk
6 ..
10 .. humanitarian corridors 3 ... (??)
.. Luhansk 10 An-26 21,325ft
17 .. MH17 Grabove SA-11 "" ( 555+)
30 ..
6 ..
1. ? Donetsk Luhansk
2. ? ""
4. ?
...
5. ?? NATO Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen
" "
...
2 .
10% EU
Pantip.com 3 .. 2557
Euro Debt Crisis 2011
Action ECB FED Model
PIIGS Lobby " EUR "
2 .. Currency War ( )
QE FED 1950 60
QE Model ECB QE
(ECB) % GDP LTRO
Pantip.com 29 . 2557
Policy Marker ECB Balance Sheet QE EUR GDP
Pantip.com 29 .. 2557
Occupy Central Occupy Wallstreet
Q : ? A : 2560 “1 1 ” 2560 ..
!!
Q : ? A : ( )
1842 99 30 1997 1 1997 26 "" 50 ( 30 . . 2590) “No”
100%
Q : ? A :
( )
Q : ? A : 15 2 17 Flash Smartphone ... ... “”
Q : A :
.. 1945 20
. 1946 1949 6
Q : ? A : ()
Occupy Central
Q : A : “” 555+ ( VS. )
Q : . ... ? A : ( )
Occupy Central
Q : ? A : ...
Q : ? A : Brand name Sentiment Hang Seng 5%- 10%
Pantip.com 6 . 2557
Hang Seng 9% PE Ratio 10.06 Dividend Yield 3.57%
Pantip.com 6 .. 2557
FOMC 28-29 .. 9-1
QE3 QE QE 4 5 6 7 8 9 ... QE Infinity
1. QE1 QE3 S&P500 170% 6 2. QE MBS Bond Yield
USD USD
Dollar Index 2009 5 QE Money Supply USD Demand
QE Bernanke )
USD Demand ? Subprime EURO ZONE
EURO ZONE ( . 50% ) Lost Decade
Double Dips
QE ... Euro Zone QE Recession
ECB Balance Sheet Fed QE 3 ECB
Balance Sheet ECB 2012 PIIGS LTRO ECB 2012
QE
?? " " http://pantip.com/topic/30759630
QE 31 .. BOJ 5-4 QE ¥60-70 Trillion ¥80 Trillion 555+
_inflation/
QQE (... 3 )
** QQE Quantitative and Qualitative Easing QE **
BOJ ECB 2 "“
(NBS) (CPI) .. 1.6% 56 Euro Zone Wealth Management Package Shadow Banking ( Shadow Banking http://pantip.com/topic/30703160)
7.695 (1.2615 ) (Medium-term Lending Facility : MLF) 2
QE
Euro Zone, Japan China 6 Enjoy ( )
PE New High , , ( QE )
Pantip.com 9 . 2557
QE
Pantip.com 9 .. 2557
? 17% Ruble 50% 2
1. 2. ?
Asian financial crisis 1997 Fixed Russian Financial Crisis $26 1997 $10 1998
Ruble 1998 Demand
16
Hedge Fund
( USD 2 )
Subset Shale Gas Shale Oil Shale Gas Shale Oil Clean Energy ( The White House )
...
OPEC
Side Effect Domino
Valuation
Pantip.com 16 . 2557
Pantip.com 16 .. 2557
1.
QE 1,300
?
2.
3.
.. –.. S&P500 10% SET Index 1,600 5%
- FOMC QE - “” ? VAT .. - ISIS ( ) - Ebola - . 2015
1,600 () S&P500 All Time High
5
4.
15 .. 5
5.
Perfectionist ..
IMB COKE 6.5 2 (Tesco) 3% “ ” “ ”
VI ego
2015 Pantip.com 29 . 2557
Pantip.com 29 .. 2557
Pantip.com “Mr.Messenger” 10
MBA
() Account Analyst 2547 Securities Service Order Management Officer
Mr.Messenger
Sell Side Wealth Management Officer . () () (Selling Agent) . 9 ()
Vice President Krungsri Exclusive ()
7 Technical Analysis 6
5 8
(Healthcare) ? 15
1 19
25
ECB FED Full Steam of QE 30
Occupy Central 35
QE 43
1998 ? 48
5 2014 52
58
:
.
.
.
. ( )
“ ” ?
1
// Page 4
// Page 4
“ ”
? ? ...
, , !!!
1
dlitemag.com 6 . 2557
dlitemag.com 6 .. 2557
Line Inbox " ?"
Technical Analysis
1. Technical Analysis
2.
3.
4. MACD False Signal Moving Average Cross
5.
6. Drawdown Limit Loss Money Management
7. ... 1.
100%
“ ”
Pantip.com 16 . 2557
Pantip.com 16 .. 2557
- (struggle of existence)
- (survival the fittest )
( )
5
2. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)
1. the average weekly hours worked by manufacturing workers 2. the average number of initial applications for unemployment
insurance 3. the amount of manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods
sand materials 4. the speed of delivery of new merchandise to vendors from
suppliers 5. the amount of new orders for capital goods unrelated to
defense 6. the amount of new building permits for residential buildings 7. the S&P 500 stock index 8. the inflation-adjusted monetary supply (M2) 9. the spread between long and short interest rates 10.consumer sentiment
LEI Conference Board
5
3. Trailing PE Ratio P/E
4. Market Breadth
Technical Analysis New
High New Low 1 New High New Low … Elliott Wave Golden Cross & Dead Cross Divergence
5
5. ISM Index ?? ISM Institute for Supply Management
Business Sector Institute of Supply Management Arizona 5 1. Production levels 2. New orders placed 3. Inventory Levels 4. Supplier deliveries 5. Employment environment
5 5
1. Treasury Yield Curve Market Fund Flow 2. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) 3. Economic Fundamental 4. Trailing PE Ratio Valuation 5. Market Breadth Technical Analysis 6. ISM Index Market Sentiment
5 5 5
Pantip.com 13 . 2557
Pantip.com 13 .. 2557
? CEA 2040 35% GDP
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) Global Life Sciences and Health Care Industry Group analysis of United Nations data statistics ( ) ( 60 ) 1.9% 1.2% 60 3 50 2,000 .. 2050
3
(Healthcare) ? Mega Trend Trend
1. (Pandemic) 2009-2011 H1N1 85 250,000 2. 2 3. Bypass 3% 10 1.5% 4. a) b) ()
Healthcare Sector
???? BGH, BH, BCH Healthcare PE Healthcare (Biotech)
Master Fund JPMorgan Global Healthcare KF-HEALTHD .
iammrmessenger.com 20 . 2557
iammrmessenger.com 20 .. 2557
2-3
“”
( ) ..
Pro-Euromaiden Pro- Russian
??
Pro-Russian ^^ . .
NATO
25 .. .. 2534
48 " "
" "
... ? ... ?
PIIGS PIIGS ECB IMF 2012-2013
1 16 .. 2557 96.8% 21 .. !
QE ( QE Tapering)
( ) 30% 1 3
100%
EU EU 1 NATO
? NATO , , , . . . .
... ? NATO
... ?
. ^^ 2. !!!
Pantip.com 30 . 2557
Pantip.com 30 .. 2557
"anti-terrorist operation“ 40 14 Luhansk
6 ..
10 .. humanitarian corridors 3 ... (??)
.. Luhansk 10 An-26 21,325ft
17 .. MH17 Grabove SA-11 "" ( 555+)
30 ..
6 ..
1. ? Donetsk Luhansk
2. ? ""
4. ?
...
5. ?? NATO Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen
" "
...
2 .
10% EU
Pantip.com 3 .. 2557
Euro Debt Crisis 2011
Action ECB FED Model
PIIGS Lobby " EUR "
2 .. Currency War ( )
QE FED 1950 60
QE Model ECB QE
(ECB) % GDP LTRO
Pantip.com 29 . 2557
Policy Marker ECB Balance Sheet QE EUR GDP
Pantip.com 29 .. 2557
Occupy Central Occupy Wallstreet
Q : ? A : 2560 “1 1 ” 2560 ..
!!
Q : ? A : ( )
1842 99 30 1997 1 1997 26 "" 50 ( 30 . . 2590) “No”
100%
Q : ? A :
( )
Q : ? A : 15 2 17 Flash Smartphone ... ... “”
Q : A :
.. 1945 20
. 1946 1949 6
Q : ? A : ()
Occupy Central
Q : A : “” 555+ ( VS. )
Q : . ... ? A : ( )
Occupy Central
Q : ? A : ...
Q : ? A : Brand name Sentiment Hang Seng 5%- 10%
Pantip.com 6 . 2557
Hang Seng 9% PE Ratio 10.06 Dividend Yield 3.57%
Pantip.com 6 .. 2557
FOMC 28-29 .. 9-1
QE3 QE QE 4 5 6 7 8 9 ... QE Infinity
1. QE1 QE3 S&P500 170% 6 2. QE MBS Bond Yield
USD USD
Dollar Index 2009 5 QE Money Supply USD Demand
QE Bernanke )
USD Demand ? Subprime EURO ZONE
EURO ZONE ( . 50% ) Lost Decade
Double Dips
QE ... Euro Zone QE Recession
ECB Balance Sheet Fed QE 3 ECB
Balance Sheet ECB 2012 PIIGS LTRO ECB 2012
QE
?? " " http://pantip.com/topic/30759630
QE 31 .. BOJ 5-4 QE ¥60-70 Trillion ¥80 Trillion 555+
_inflation/
QQE (... 3 )
** QQE Quantitative and Qualitative Easing QE **
BOJ ECB 2 "“
(NBS) (CPI) .. 1.6% 56 Euro Zone Wealth Management Package Shadow Banking ( Shadow Banking http://pantip.com/topic/30703160)
7.695 (1.2615 ) (Medium-term Lending Facility : MLF) 2
QE
Euro Zone, Japan China 6 Enjoy ( )
PE New High , , ( QE )
Pantip.com 9 . 2557
QE
Pantip.com 9 .. 2557
? 17% Ruble 50% 2
1. 2. ?
Asian financial crisis 1997 Fixed Russian Financial Crisis $26 1997 $10 1998
Ruble 1998 Demand
16
Hedge Fund
( USD 2 )
Subset Shale Gas Shale Oil Shale Gas Shale Oil Clean Energy ( The White House )
...
OPEC
Side Effect Domino
Valuation
Pantip.com 16 . 2557
Pantip.com 16 .. 2557
1.
QE 1,300
?
2.
3.
.. –.. S&P500 10% SET Index 1,600 5%
- FOMC QE - “” ? VAT .. - ISIS ( ) - Ebola - . 2015
1,600 () S&P500 All Time High
5
4.
15 .. 5
5.
Perfectionist ..
IMB COKE 6.5 2 (Tesco) 3% “ ” “ ”
VI ego
2015 Pantip.com 29 . 2557
Pantip.com 29 .. 2557
Pantip.com “Mr.Messenger” 10
MBA
() Account Analyst 2547 Securities Service Order Management Officer
Mr.Messenger
Sell Side Wealth Management Officer . () () (Selling Agent) . 9 ()
Vice President Krungsri Exclusive ()