investor presentation manchester, new hampshire october 14, 2008
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Investor Presentation Manchester, New Hampshire OCTOBER 14, 2008. Safe Harbor Provisions. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Investor PresentationManchester, New Hampshire
OCTOBER 14, 2008
2
Safe Harbor Provisions
This presentation contains statements concerning NU’s expectations, plans, objectives, future financial performance and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In some cases, a listener can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as “estimate”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “forecast”, “should”, “could”, and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, actions or inactions by local, state and federal regulatory bodies; competition and industry restructuring; changes in economic conditions; changes in weather patterns; changes in laws, regulations or regulatory policy; changes in levels or timing of capital expenditures; developments in legal or public policy doctrines; technological developments; changes in accounting standards and financial reporting regulations; fluctuations in the value of our remaining competitive electricity positions; actions of rating agencies; subsequent recognition, derecognition and measurement of tax positions; and other presently unknown or unforeseen factors. Other risk factors are detailed from time to time in our reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in any forward-looking statements to reflect developments or circumstances occurring after the statement is made. This presentation references our 2008 earnings and 2008 guidance excluding a significant charge associated with a litigation settlement payment made to Consolidated Edison, Inc. Due to the nature and significance of the litigation charge, management believes that this non-GAAP presentation is more representative of our performance and provides additional and useful information to investors in analyzing historical and future performance. This presentation also references our 2008 projected EPS by segment, a non-GAAP presentation which management believes is useful to investors to evaluate the actual financial performance and contribution of NU’s business segments. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered as an alternative to NU consolidated net income and EPS determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of NU’s operating performance.
Please refer to our reports to the SEC for further details concerning the matters described in this presentation.
3
Daily Share Price and Volumes
$20.0$21.0$22.0$23.0$24.0$25.0$26.0$27.0$28.0$29.0$30.0$31.0$32.0
1/2 3/12 5/20 7/29 10/6
300,000
1,600,000
2,900,000
4,200,000
Share Price Daily Volume
January 2, 2008 – October 8, 2008
4
NU vs. Dow Utilities vs. Philadelphia Utility Index
-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%
UTY NU DJU
January 2, 2008 – October 8, 2008
5
Total Shareholder Return For Comparator Companies
SCG NST TE WEC ED XEL CNP PNW NU LNT NI POM AEE CMS AYE SRP
-45.0%
-35.0%
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
December 31, 2007 – September 30, 2008
6
2008: Year of Progress For NU
Earnings growth strong; initial consolidated guidance raised on August 1
Major southwest Connecticut transmission projects on or ahead of schedule Long Island Cable, Middletown-Norwalk overhead section placed in
service NEEWS siting process has begun Favorable FERC rulings on transmission incentives Major financings completed successfully New legislation consistent with NU’s strategic initiatives
7
$71.6
$7.6 $7.4
($5.2)
$4.1
$123.6
$37.0
$67.7
$146.0
$79.4
($20.0)
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
2007
2008
First Half Earnings
Distribution and Generation
Transmission Parent/Other
In M
illio
ns
Competitive
10.9%
*
’07-’08
83.0%
’07-’08
Consolidated
*
*Excludes $29.8 million after-tax charge from settlement of ConEd litigation
18.1%
’07-’08
8
First Half Distribution, Generation Earnings
$27.6
$20.7
$9.4
$13.9
$33.7
$21.6
$6.5
$17.6
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
$40.0
CL&P PSNH WMECO Yankee Gas
2007
2008
In M
illio
ns
9
2008 EPS Guidance
Previous 2008 EPS Guidance Current 2008 EPS Guidance Change
Distribution/Generation $1.05 - $1.15 $1.05 - $1.10 ($0.00 - $0.05)
Transmission $0.75 - $0.85 $0.85 - $0.90 $0.05 - $0.10
Competitive Breakeven $0.00 - $0.05 $0.00 - $0.05
Parent, ex. Litigation Charge
($0.15) – ($0.10) ($0.10) $0.00 - $0.05
Consolidated, ex. Litigation Charge
$1.65 - $1.90 $1.80 - $1.95 $0.05 - $0.15
Litigation Charge ($0.19) ($0.19) N/A
Consolidated $1.45 - $1.70 $1.60 - $1.75 $0.05 - $0.15
10
Recent Earnings Growth Has Been Driven Primarily By
Successful Execution Around Major Projects
Northern WoodNorthern Wood
Waterbury LNGWaterbury LNG
COMPLETE
Long Island Replacement
Cable
Long Island Replacement
Cable
Glenbrook CablesGlenbrook Cables
Bethel-NorwalkBethel-Norwalk
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
Middletown-Norwalk Underground
Middletown-Norwalk Underground
Middletown-Norwalk Overhead
Middletown-Norwalk Overhead
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
11
Transmission Earnings Growth Has Resulted From
Increased Investment
$1,774
$1,491
$455
$605
$1,046
$82.5
$59.8
$41.1
$28.2
$113.2
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 12 Months Ended6/30/08
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
Period End Rate Base Net Income
Rat
e B
ase
in M
illio
ns N
et Inco
me
in M
illions
12
How NU’s Allowed Transmission ROE is Calculated
10.20% 10.40%
0.74%0.50%
0.50%
1.00%1.00%
0.74%
0.46%
Initial 10/31/06 Order Current Authorized ROEs
Technology adder for underground portion of Middletown-NorwalkNew England projectsIncentive for RTO membershipIncrement beginning 10/31/06 for higher bond yieldsBase ROE
For projects in-service before1/1/09 and Middletown-Norwalk
12.44% 13.10%
(Increase of 20 basis points)
For projects entering service on or after 1/1/09, each specific incentive must be requested from FERC, and the project must meet certain tests.
Must address some of these considerations:• Non-routine
• Ensures reliability, or reduces congestion considerably
• Size
• Significant financing
• Multi-state
• Multi-pool
• Multi-company
• Technologically advanced
13
System Reliability: NEEWS Projects Will Improve Transmission
Capability, Help Access Renewable Power From the North
SPRINGFIELD
HARTFORD
345-kV Substation
Generation Station
345-kV ROW
115-kV ROW
Central ConnecticutReliability Project
InterstateReliability Project
Greater SpringfieldReliability Project
File Siting Applications: Early fall 2008; municipal consultations under way
Estimated Cost: $714M
File Siting Application: Mid-2009
Estimated Cost: $315M
File Siting Application: End of 2008; municipal consultations under way
Estimated Cost: $250M
*Total NEEWS costs projected to be $1.49 billion including $210 million of additional reliability-related expenditures.
14
Estimated Schedules For Major NEEWS Projects
Major NEEWS Projects
Greater Springfield Reliability
(115-kV/345-kV)
Interstate Reliability (345-kV)
Central CT Reliability (345-kV)
FERC incentive filing September 17, 2008 September 17, 2008 September 17, 2008
ISO technical applications approval
September 24, 2008 September 24, 2008 September 24, 2008
State siting applications filed
Early fall 2008 End of 2008 Mid-2009
Siting completed 2010 Mid / Late 2010 2010/Early 2011
Construction targeted to start on staggered basis
2010 2010 2011
In-service Mid-2013 Late 2012/2013 2013
15
Regional Energy Policy Continues To Be Shaped By State
Legislation
2005 Energy Independence Act
Distributed generation Generation RFP
2007 Energy Efficiency Act Integrated resource plan Peaking generation Increased DSM incentives Required decoupling Advanced metering Long-term bilateral contracts RPS standards increased
2008 RGGI regulations adopted
2008 Green Communities Act
Adopted RGGI Removed caps on utility
energy efficiency/demand response
Long-term contracts for renewable resources
Utility-owned solar generation
Smart grid pilot Green power offering
2006 Mercury Reduction Bill
Merrimack Scrubber 2007 Renewable
Portfolio Standards 2008 RGGI
regulations adopted 2008 distributed
generation authorization
16
Reduced Emissions -- Merrimack Clean Air Project
Expected to reduce sulfur emissions by more than 90% Expected to reduce mercury emissions by 85% Investment to be recovered through PSNH generation rates per legislation Merrimack a key source of low-cost power for PSNH
Two coal units supply about 35% of PSNH’s energy requirements PSNH energy costs now about 25% below region’s rates Scrubber will add estimated 0.3 cents/kWh to PSNH bills
Scrubber required by New Hampshire statute for mercury emissions reductions
Revised estimate of $457 million Engineering, Procurement &
Construction contract secured with Washington Group International in fall 2007
Estimated construction start: 2009 Estimated project completion: 2013
17
Investments Required to Serve Customers Will Increase Rate
Base
$1,046 $1,491$2,172
$2,716 $2,988 $3,435 $3,892
$3,429$3,787
$4,297
$4,623$4,897
$5,157$5,422
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
2006Actual
2007Actual
2008 Est. 2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est. 2012 Est.
Electric Transmission Distribution and Generation
Target Utility Capitalization Structure = 45% equity, 55% debt
$5,278
$7,339
$6,469
$7,885
Rat
e B
ase
in M
illio
ns
Projected Rate Base
2008-2012CAGR of 12%
$4,475
$8,592
Projected Distribution & Generation Rate Base
CAGR of 7%
Projected Transmission
Rate BaseCAGR of 22%
$9,314
Note: 50% CWIP approved for major southwest Connecticut investment until projects enter service. 100% CWIP in rate base assumed for NEEWS projects. Rate base estimates not yet updated for 5/13/08 NEEWS projections or for 8/1/08 Merrimack Clean Air Project update.
18
New England’s Environmental Targets
RPS Requirements
7.5
23.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Current 2025
% o
f Ene
rgy
Requ
irem
ents
RGGI Requirements -- CO2
50
48
63
01020304050607080
2000-2006 Range 2025 Expected"Business asUsual" Range
2025 Target
Mill
ions
of T
ons
22-24 million MWh of new renewable generation needed to meet 2025 RPS requirements
25-38 million MWh of new non-carbon emitting generation needed to meet 2024 RGGI requirements
54
71
1. Energy Efficiency
2. Renewable Resource Development
3. Low carbon imports (Canada)
Keys to Solution
19
Additional New England and Eastern Canadian Resources
Will Help Meet New England’s Needs
H
N
W
Hydro
Nuclear
Wind
B Biomass
General Movement Of Power
New England’s Most Attractive Renewable Energy Locations
W
N
H
H
H
Newfoundland & LabradorExploring development
of large Hydro facilities
New BrunswickExploring development
of 1 or 2 nuclear units
W
Eastern Canadian Resources
W
W
WW
B
B
B
B
QuebecHydro Quebec plans to develop a portfolio of hydroelectric projects totaling 4,500 MW and integrate 4,000 MW of planned wind power by 2015
S Solar
S
20
North-South Interface
Power Injection PointsPower Injection Points
Tier 2 – Regional Economic Projects
Tier 2 – Regional Economic Projects
Inject 1,200 MW Hydro-Quebec power at Webster (NH)
Inject 1,200 MW Hydro-Quebec power at Webster (NH)
Possible Hydro-Quebec – Webster HVDC
• 1,200 MW Transfer
Possible Hydro-Quebec – Webster HVDC
• 1,200 MW Transfer
Inject 400 MW of Northern New Hampshire renewable resources
Inject 400 MW of Northern New Hampshire renewable resources
Proposed Northern Loop Upgrades
• 115 kV or 230 kV AC• Connection for renewable
resources
Proposed Northern Loop Upgrades
• 115 kV or 230 kV AC• Connection for renewable
resources
Tier 3 – Cross Regional Economic Projects
Tier 3 – Cross Regional Economic Projects
Tier 1 – Reliability UpgradesTier 1 – Reliability Upgrades
NEEWS project provides strong path for delivery into CT
NEEWS project provides strong path for delivery into CT
Enhanced Northern New England Transmission Key to
Meeting Regional Needs
Multiple Projects in
Maine
• Key to allowing northern power to flow to load centers in MA/CT
• Multiple configurations possible (overland AC, submarine DC, others)
• Key to allowing northern power to flow to load centers in MA/CT
• Multiple configurations possible (overland AC, submarine DC, others)