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11
TransAlta Corporation
Investor Presentation
November 2016
22
This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities
legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on information available at the time the assumptions were made and on
management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the
circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”, “will”,
“believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “forecast”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not
guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause our actual performance to be materially different from that
projected. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to our business strategy and goals, including our strategy and position to grow gas-fired and
renewable generation; anticipated future financial performance; the timing and the completion and commissioning of projects under development, including the South Hedland power
project and its associated costs and benefits; expectations related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and contracting activities, including estimates of comparable
earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (“EBITDA”), comparable funds from operations (“FFO”), and comparable free cash flow (“FCF”); expectations in
respect of financial ratios and targets, including adjusted comparable FFO to adjusted net debt, and adjusted net debt to comparable EBITDA; the Corporation’s plans and strategies
relating to repositioning its capital structure and strengthening its balance sheet, including the allocation of debt between the Corporation and TransAlta Renewables Inc. as well as
the debt reductions that are expected to occur in 2016 and beyond; the amount of anticipated cost reductions; expected governmental regulatory regimes and legislation and their
expected impact on TransAlta and the timing of the implementation of such regimes and regulations, as well as the cost of complying with resulting regulations and laws; the
outcome of negotiations with the Government of Alberta in relation to coal-fired generation transition under the Climate Leadership Plan; the Corporation’s ownership level of
TransAlta Renewables Inc.; expectations for demand for electricity in both the short term and long term, and the resulting impact on electricity prices; the impact of load growth,
increased capacity, and natural gas costs on power prices; expectations in respect of generation availability, capacity, and production; expected levels of future contractedness;
expected sustaining capital expenditures; expected pricing in Alberta and the Pacific NorthWest; and the Alberta forward curve and future power prices.
Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate
electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate;
environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our
facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water,
or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; equipment failure and our ability to carry out, or have
completed, repairs in a cost-effective manner or timely manner; commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies and foreign
political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for income taxes; legal, regulatory,
and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations matters; risks associated with the
Keephills 1 arbitration; risks associated with development projects and acquisitions, including delays in the construction of or increased costs associated with the South Hedland
power project; adverse regulatory developments, including our potential inability to secure a mutually beneficial coal transition arrangement with the Alberta Government in respect of
the Alberta Climate Leadership Plan; and any market disruption or changes in market regulation, including any actions by the Balancing Pool following a buyer's termination of the
applicable power purchase arrangement. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our Management Discussion
and Analysis and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking
statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the
date hereof and we do not undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable
laws. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not
occur. We cannot assure that projected results or events will be achieved.
Certain financial information contained in this presentation, including comparable FFO and comparable free cash flow, may not be standard measures defined under International
Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a
substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section entitled “Non-IFRS Measures” contained
in our Management Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on www.sedar.com.
Forward Looking Statements
333
Outline
Overview
Strategic Objectives
2016 Outlook
Financial Strategy
TransAlta Renewables Inc.
Growth Strategy
Coal Transition in Alberta
Appendix
4
8
11
16
21
25
30
36
44
TransAlta’s Platform
Coal: 4,931 MW6 facilities in Alberta and the Pacific
Northwest
Gas: 1,323 MW
12 facilities in Canada and Australia;
also 270km pipeline
RNW owns an economic interest in all
Australian gas assets (425 MW) and the
506 MW gas facility in Ontario
Wind & Solar:
1,400 MW
27 facilities in Canada and the U.S
RNW owns ~90% of the wind facilities1
Hydro: 926 MW
27 facilities in Canada and the U.S.
TA owns the majority of the Alberta hydro
facilities
(1) Including TransAlta Renewables economic interest in the 144MW Wyoming wind farm and 98MW Le Nordais wind facility
55
34%
40%
21%
5%
2015 Free EBITDA(1)
Coal Gas Wind and Solar Hydro
Our Highly Diversified Portfolio
56%
17%
16%
11%
Net Capacity (MW)
• Highly diversified cash flows from five fuel types with facilities located
in Canada, the United States and Australia
• TransAlta is Canada’s largest generator of wind power and the largest
generator of renewable energy in Alberta
• Gas-fired and renewable assets accounted for more than 65% of total
free EBITDA in 2015
(1) Free EBITDA = EBITDA less Sustaining Capital, and excluding Energy Marketing and Corporate segments. 2015 Free EBITDA from Canadian Coal excludes a $59 million
adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years
66
Proven Track Record
(1) 2015 comparable EBITDA excludes a $59 million adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years
80%
85%
90%
95%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Adjusted Availability
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
2012 2013 2014 2015
Safety (IFR)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2012 2013 2014 2015
Comparable EBITDA(1)
, FFO and FCF
Comparable EBITDA ($M) FFO/Share FCF/Share
77
Energy Marketing Capability – A Competitive Advantage
Energy
Marketing
and
Asset
Optimization
• Transacting in multiple markets
provides us with a competitive
advantage
• Targeting $40 to $60 million in
gross margin annually from
Proprietary Trading
• Preparing for roll off of Alberta
PPAs
• Increase customer contracts from
700 MW today to 3,000 MW by
2021
• Service behind the fence large
industrial customers in Canada,
U.S. and Australia
• Centralia
• Hydro peaking capability
• Ontario Gas supply and
dispatching
Asset Optimization
(30%)
External Customer
Business (50%)
Proprietary Trading
(20%)
888
Strategic
Objectives
999
Strategic Objectives
Deliver Operational Excellence
2 Increase Financial Flexibility
1
Strategically Grow our Portfolio of Contracted
Gas-Fired and Renewable Generation
3
A Prudent and Proactive Plan
1010
Executing Our Strategic Objectives
2015 2016
Operational
Excellence
• Reduced costs by ~$50 million
with cost saving initiatives at
Canadian Coal and Corporate
• Best ever safety (IFR of 0.75)
• Continued focus on delivering
strong operational, safety and
financial performance
Increase
Financial
Flexibility
• Raised approximately $1 billion
of capital through the use of
TransAlta Renewables
• Met 2015 guidance for
comparable EBITDA(1) and FFO;
exceeded FCF guidance
• Reposition our capital structure by
pursuing project-level debt
• Proactive planning for debt
maturities in 2017 and 2018
• Similar guidance ranges to 2015
despite continued challenging
market conditions expected in
2016 in Alberta and PacNW
Strategic
Growth
• Acquired 71 MWs of wind and
solar assets in the U.S.
• Received final approval to
construct and operate
Sundance 7
• Secure a mutually beneficial coal
transition arrangement with the
Alberta government
• Longer-term, prepare to capitalize
on opportunities in gas-fired and
renewable generation
(1) Excluding adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years.
111111
2016 Outlook
121212
2016 Goals and Priorities
Secure a mutually beneficial coal transition arrangement
with the Alberta Government
2Continue to reposition our capital structure
1
Continue to grow TransAlta Renewables Inc.3
Continued focus on delivering strong operational, safety
and financial performance
4
1313
2016 Outlook Ranges ($M)Comparable EBITDA $990 $1,100
Comparable Funds from Operations $755 $835
Sustaining Capital (330) (350)
Pfd Share/Other Distributions (175) (185)
Comparable Free Cash Flow $250 $300
Comparable Free Cash Flow Per Share $0.86 $1.03
Annual Dividend $0.16 $0.16
Dividend Payout Ratio 19% 15%
2016 Outlook
Range of Key Assumptions
Power Prices
Alberta Spot ($/MWH) $ 29 - $ 33
Alberta Contracted ($/Mwh) $ 44 - $ 49
Mid-C Spot (US$/MwH) $ 22 - $ 26
Mid-C Contracted (US$/MWh) $ 40 - $ 45
Other
Canadian Coal Availability 87% - 89%
Hydro / Wind Resource - P50 -
1414
2016 YTD vs 2016 Guidance
$7
71
$9
90
$1
,10
0
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
YTD Low High
Guidance
Comparable EBITDA
$5
35
$7
55
$8
35
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
YTD Low High
Guidance
Comparable FFO
$2
06
$2
50
$3
00
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
YTD Low High
Guidance
86
% 87
%
89
%
80%
85%
90%
YTD Low High
Guidance
Comparable FCF CAD Coal Availability
1515
$33
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Managing Low Merchant Prices in Alberta
Alberta Forward Curve$/MW
• Power prices in Alberta are not expected to increase significantly in
2016; the forward curve strengthens in 2017 to 2019 partly due to
the implementation of the Carbon Competitiveness Regulation
• Our hedging program protects us from near-term low prices
• Our Alberta wind and hydro assets provide us with the ability to
capture upside in the forward market
Oversupply in the Alberta power market and low natural
gas prices are driving historic lows for Alberta power prices
1616
Contracted Portfolio Supports Stable EBITDA
Contract and hedging strategy underpin stable cashflows
Alberta• Well hedged through 2016
• Market shocks allow opportunity to further
hedge at prices higher than the current
market
Pacific Northwest• Puget Sound Energy and other long-term
contracts provide base of between
~280MW and 380MW
• Additional shorter-term hedges managed
dynamically to capture market volatility
Merchant exposure in Alberta and the
Pacific NW
2016 Hedge prices
AB ~$45 - $50/MWh
PacNW ~$40/MWh
2017 Hedge prices
AB ~$45 - $50/MWh
PacNW ~$45 - $50/MWh
Total portfolio contractedness1
MW88% 85% 73% 70%
As of June 30, 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2016 2017 2018 2019
PPAs Long-term contract
171717
Financial
Strategy
1818
Finance & Treasury Overview
Area of Focus Execution
Liquidity• Average liquidity of $1.3B since 2014; liquidity of $1.7B at
September 30, 2016
Area of Focus Execution
Financial Ratios• Consistently moved the mark on ‘Adjusted FFO to Adjusted Net
Debt’
Ratio Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Target
Comparable FFO before Interest to Adjusted Interest 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.9 4 – 5x
Adjusted FFO to Adjusted Net Debt 15.2 16.2 16.5 17.6 20 – 25%
Adjusted Net Debt to Comparable EBITDA 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.1 3 – 3.5
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Dec 31/14 Mar 31/15 Jun 30/15 Sep 30/15 Dec 31/15 Mar 31/16 June 30/16 Sep 30/16
C$
Bill
ion
Cash
Available
Liquidity
Committed
Credit Facilities
1919
Repositioning our Capital Structure (2016 to 2018)
Sources (C$M) 2016 to 2018
Project-level financing $850 - $1,100
Cash flow from the business $450 - $600
Total $1,300 - $1,700
Uses (C$M) 2016 to 2018
Repayment of USD notes ~$1,000
Repayment of CHD bond ~$200
Construction of South Hedland ~$300
Total ~$1,500
• Over the next three years, we plan to repay ~$1.2B of debt maturing in
2017 and 2018 and fund ~$300M of capital to complete construction
of South Hedland with project-level debt and cash generated by the
business
2020
TOTAL
C$B Recourse Non-Recourse RecourseNon-
Recourse
Current (March 31, 2016) $3.2 $0.1 $0.0 $0.7 $4.0
Project Financing $0.4 $0.6 $1.0
Debt Repayment (2016 - 2018)1
($1.0) ($0.2) ($1.2)
Projected $2.2 $0.5 $0.0 $1.1 $3.8
Repositioning our Capital Structure (2016 to 2018)
Debt attributable to
coal and Alberta hydro facilities
• Financing plan is expected to result in the appropriate allocation of
debt between TransAlta and TransAlta Renewables
(1) Includes repayment of intercompany credit facility
212121
2222
Leveraging TransAlta Renewables Inc.
TransAlta Corporation and TransAlta Renewables are strategically aligned
TransAlta Renewables
TransAlta Public
~60-80% ~20-40%
• TransAlta is the largest
shareholder of TransAlta
Renewables Inc. and will
maintain ~60-80% ownership
• Unlocks the value of long-life
contracted assets on attractive
terms
• Provides access to lower cost
funding
• Strong currency to support
accretive acquisition of third party
assets
2323
TransAlta Renewables (TSX:RNW)
• Provides stable, consistent returns through the ownership of highly
contracted power generation and other infrastructure assets
Enterprise Value¹ $4.7 Billion
Market Cap.2
$3.7 Billion
2016E EBITDA $365 - $390 Million
2016E CAFD $210 - $235 Million
Dividend Yield 5.9%
Net Generating Capacity (incl. South Hedland) 2,441 MW
TransAlta Corporation’s Ownership 64%
¹ Does not include capital required to complete South Hedland Project2 Based on closing price as of October 31, 2016 and including Class B shares
Wind Hydro Gas Fired Gas Pipeline Transmission
2424
Significant Drop-Down Inventory
Potential Drop-Down Candidates from TransAlta Corporation
Gas Fired
Generation
• ~400 MW in Alberta & Ontario including:
• 244 MW Poplar Creek facility in AB
• ~150 MW from 4 facilities through TA Cogen
• ~$140M EBITDA
Alberta Hydro
• ~800 MW from 13 units in Alberta, representing
90% of Alberta’s hydro
• ~$60 - $120M EBITDA
Other
Renewables
• 20 MW wind facility in ON
• 45 MW wind facility in AB
• 50 MW wind facility in Minnesota
• 21 MW solar facilities in
Massachusetts
252525
Growth
Strategy
2626
South Hedland Power Station
150 MW Combined Cycle Gas Power Station in Western Australia
• Commissioning expected on schedule and on budget in mid-2017
• Expected to generate ~$80 million of EBITDA on an annualized basis
• Project has been funded without increasing our debt levels (total
investment by completion of ~$585 million)
Total estimated project spend is AUD$570 million. Total estimated project spend is stated in CAD$ and includes estimated capital interest costs and may change
due to fluctuation in foreign exchange rates.
2727
Recent Growth Accomplishments
• Advanced construction of our 150 MW South Hedland gas-fired facility
in Australia with expected commissioning in mid-2017
• Re-structured contracts at our Poplar Creek facility, extending the
contract duration by 7 years and reducing our merchant exposure in
Alberta
• Acquired three wind facilities in Alberta, Ontario and Minnesota adding
115 MW of net wind capacity to our portfolio
• Added our first solar assets with the acquisition of 21 MW of fully-
contracted solar projects in Massachusetts
Strategically reinvesting in our business for the long-term
2828
Long-Term Investment Opportunities
Gas-Fired and Renewables
• Alberta’s Climate Leadership Plan – requirement for
gas-fired and renewable generation (~6,000 MW of
coal will need to be replaced by 2030)
• Sundance 7, low cost gas-fired option in our portfolio
• Expansion & acquisition opportunities in the United
States & Australia
• Evaluating hydro pumped storage at TransAlta’s
existing hydro sites
Coal Optionality
• Evaluating coal to gas conversions
• Flexibility under the Federal GHG legislation allows
optimization of cash flows across Alberta coal units
292929
Coal Transition
in Alberta
3030
Alberta’s Climate Leadership Plan
Acceleration of
the retirement
of coal-fired
power plants
Coal-fired generation
phased out by 2030
Implementation
of a carbon
price
Starting in 2018, coal
fired generators will
pay $30 per tonne of
CO2 emissions based
on an industry-wide
natural gas
performance standard
Incentives for
renewable
generation
By 2030, renewable
sources like wind and
solar will account for
up to 30 percent of
electricity generation
3131
Coal Transition in Alberta – The Facts
• There is currently 6,277 MW of coal-fired installed capacity in Alberta, representing
~39% of overall supply
• Federal regulations amended in 2012 designate a 50 year useful life for coal plants
• Eight of TransAlta’s coal units (2,931 MW) will be retired by the end of 2029 under
the federal rule, resulting in GHG reductions of 88% from current levels
• Due to Alberta’s Climate Leadership Plan, four other coal units in Alberta will be
decommissioned in 2030, representing approximately 650 MW
Plant MW (Net) Annual GWh1 Retirement Under
Federal GHG Regulations
Retirement Under AB
Climate Leadership Plan
Sundance 1 & 2 560 4,170 2019 2019
Sundance 3 368 2,740 2026 2026
Sundance 4 406 3,023 2027 2027
Sundance 5 406 3,023 2028 2028
Sundance 6 401 2,986 2029 2029
Keephills 1 & 2 790 6,046 2029 2029
Sheerness 1 98 708 2036 2030
Sheerness 2 98 707 2040 2030
Genesee 3 233 1,675 2055 2030
Keephills 3 232 1,675 2061 2030
¹ Based on 85% availability
Note: Sheerness 1 and 2 capacity based on 25% ownership interest
3232
Secure a Coal Transition Arrangement in Alberta
It is critical that the transition arrangement achieve these
three key outcomes:
Maintain system reliability
Provide stable prices for consumers
Minimize stranded capital
2
1
3
3333
Secure a Coal Transition Arrangement in Alberta
To successfully achieve these outcomes, we need:
Market mechanisms and a market structure that sustain
promises to current investors & attract new private capital
Meaningful incentives to drive the build out of renewable
and gas-fired generation
A clear and thoughtful policy environment for the use of
gas-fired generation in Alberta
Market rules that ensure generators are paid for the
services they provide the grid
2
1
3
4
3434
TransAlta’s Coal Transition Positioning
TransAlta is well-positioned to transition from coal to
renewables and gas-fired generation by 2030
• The expansion of hydro assets
• The development of greenfield wind and solar
opportunities
• The development of our permitted Sundance 7 combined
cycle gas plant
• The conversion of coal-fired generation to gas-fired
generation
• Potential cogeneration opportunities
353535
Appendix
11
Map of TransAlta’s Operations
3737
Financial Performance by Business Segment
Business
Segment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(1)
2016
YTD
EBITDA ($M)
Canadian Coal $273 $373 $311 $389 $393 $295
U.S. Coal $211 $148 $67 $65 $67 $27
Gas $275 $312 $332 $312 $330 $270
Wind $163 $151 $181 $179 $176 $129
Hydro $105 $127 $148 $87 $73 $62
Energy Marketing $101 ($13) $58 $75 $37 $39
Corporate ($84) ($83) ($74) ($71) ($72) ($51)
Comp. EBITDA ($M) $1,044 $1,016 $1,023 $1,036 $1,004 $771
Comp. FFO ($M) $812 $788 $729 $762 $740 $535
(1) Canadian Coal is normalized for provision adjustment included in 2015 EBITDA of $59 million relating to prior years
3838
Upcoming Debt Maturities
(1) Includes USD$20 million of debt related to RNW.
(2) Debt related to RNW.
$400
$520
$167
$400 $400
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2017 2018 2019 2020
USD CAD
(2)
(1)