investor presentation - transalta · 2017. 7. 28. · 2 forward looking statements this...
TRANSCRIPT
1 1
Investor Presentation
May 2015
2 2
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable
securities legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on information available at the time the assumptions were made
and on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the
circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”,
“will”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not
guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause our actual performance to be materially different from
that projected. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to our business and anticipated future financial performance; our success in
executing on our growth projects; the timing and the completion and commissioning of projects under development, including major projects such as the South Hedland Power
Project, and their attendant costs; expectations regarding the Alberta Electric System Operator’s (“AESO”) plans for resolving regional constraints on Alberta’s transmission
system; spending on growth and sustaining capital and productivity projects; expectations in terms of the cost of operations, capital spend, and maintenance, and the variability
of those costs, including expectations on the cost savings anticipated from the major maintenance agreement entered into with Alstom; the impact of certain hedges on future
reported earnings and cash flows; expectations related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and contracting activi ties (including estimates of 2015 comparable
earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (“EBITDA”), comparable funds from operations (“FFO”), and comparable free cash flow; estimates of fuel supply
and demand conditions and the costs of procuring fuel; expectations for demand for electricity in both the short term and long term, and the resulting impact on electricity prices;
the impact of load growth, increased capacity, and natural gas costs on power prices; expectations in respect of generation availability, capacity, and production; expectations
regarding the role different energy sources will play in meeting future energy needs; expected financing of our capital expenditures; expected governmental regulatory regimes
and legislation and their expected impact on us and the timing of the implementation of such regimes and regulations, as well as the cost of complying with resulting regulations
and laws; our trading strategies and the risk involved in these strategies; estimates of future tax rates, future tax expense, and the adequacy of tax provisions; accounting
estimates; anticipated growth rates in our markets; our expectations regarding proceedings before the Alberta Utilities Commission (the “AUC”) as well as those relating to the
outcome of existing or potential legal and contractual claims, regulatory investigations, and disputes; expectations regarding the renewal of collective bargaining agreements;
expectations for the ability to access capital markets at reasonable terms; the estimated impact of changes in interest rates and the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the
U.S. dollar and other currencies in locations where we do business; the monitoring of our exposure to liquidity risk; expectations in respect of the global economic environment
and growing scrutiny by investors relating to sustainability performance; our credit practices; the estimated contribution of Energy Marketing activities to gross margin; and
expectations relating to the performance of TransAlta Renewables Inc.’s (“TransAlta Renewables”) assets and plans for the sale of contracted assets to TransAlta Renewables.
Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate
electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate;
environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving
our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels,
water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; equipment failure and our ability to carry out
or have completed the repairs in a cost-effective manner or timely manner; commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign
currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for
income taxes; legal, regulatory, and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations
matters; development projects and acquisitions, including delays in the construction of the South Hedland Power Project; failure to proceed with plans for the sale of contracted
assets to TransAlta Renewables as a result of failure to agree to commercial terms with the independent directors of TransAlta Renewables, adverse market conditions or
failure to obtain any required regulatory, shareholder or other third party approvals; and the satisfactory receipt of applicable regulatory approvals for existing and proposed
operations and growth initiatives. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of this MD&A and under the heading
“Risk Factors” in our 2015 Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to
place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof and we do not
undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws. In light of these
risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not occur. We cannot
assure that projected results or events will be achieved.
3 3
TransAlta Corporation (TSX:TA, NYSE:TAC)
Growing our business by 3 – 5% annually
$9 billion Power Infrastructure and Energy Marketer with
$3.5 billion market capitalization
Contracted Gas
and Renewables
Portfolio
Upside from a
mix of strategic
assets
Marketing and
asset
optimization
capability
M&A and
development
expertise
• Low cost, long term
contracted
renewable and gas
assets
• Largest wind power
generator in Canada
• 76% ownership in
TransAlta
Renewables
• $4 billion of growth
in the last 5 years
• ~$1 billion in
investment in
Australia over the
last 3 years
• Experienced
developer and
operator of behind
the fence generation
• $40 - $60 million in
annual EBITDA from
low risk proprietary
trading
• Significant value
created from
optimizing fleet
assets
• 700 MW
Commercial and
Industrial Business
• Strategic player in
Canada, Western
U.S. and Western
Australia
• Largest Power
Producer in Alberta
(over 5,200 MW)
• Coal, Gas, Wind &
Hydro
ASSETS CAPABILITIES
4 4
~88% contracted
Remaining contract life of 5.5 years
Coal: 4,931 MW 6 facilities in Canada and U.S.
~95% contracted
Average contract life of 10.9 years
Gas: 1,447 MW 12 facilities in Canada and
Australia; also 270km pipeline
~65% contracted
Average contract life of 10 years
Wind: 1,271 MW 19 facilities in Canada and U.S
~96% contracted
Average contract life of 5.3 years
Hydro: 914 MW
27 facilities in Canada and U.S.
Customer team serving large scale behind
the fence Commercial and Industrial
customers in Alberta
Manage residual price risk
Energy Marketing:
TransAlta – Just the Facts
5 5
Our goal is to grow EBITDA by an average of $40 – $60 million per year and deliver
an 8 – 10% annual return for Shareholders
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ytd
Target : 8 – 10%/year
Our Track Record
Total Shareholder Return
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
2012 2013 2014 2015E
Safety (IFR)
EBITDA Growth ($M)
Cash Metrics
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
2012 2013 2014 2015E
FFO/share FCF/share
$M
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
EBITDA Comparable ROCE
6 6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Open Merchant
Short term contract / Hedges
Long-term contract
Alberta Legislated PPAs
Total portfolio contractedness
Merchant exposure in Alberta and the
Pacific NW
2015 Hedge prices
AB ~$50/MWh
PacNW ~$40/MWh
2016 Hedge prices
AB ~$45 - $50/MWh
PacNW ~$40 - $45/MWh
MW
Contracted Portfolio Supports Stable EBITDA
88% 82% 78% 69%
Contract and hedging strategy underpin stable cashflows
Contracted EBITDA supports:
• Dividend ($350 million)
• Debt Service ($300 million)
• Sustaining Capex ($300 million)
Merchant and Energy Marketing supports:
• Corporate Overhead
• Growth
7 7
Energy Marketing Capability - A Competitive Advantage
Energy
Marketing
and
Asset
Optimization
• Low risk
• Transacting in multiple markets
provides us with a competitive
advantage
• Preparing for roll off of Alberta
PPAs
• Increase customer contracts from
700 MW today to 3,000 MW by
2021
• Service behind the fence large
industrial customers in Canada,
U.S. and Australia
• Centralia
• Hydro peaking capability
• Ontario Gas supply and
dispatching
Asset Optimization
(30%)
External Customer
Business (50%)
Proprietary Trading
(20%)
8 8
2015 Strategic Objectives
TransAlta’s Strategic Goals
• Deliver results from the base business
• Grow profitably
• Strengthen our financial position
9 9
Executing on our Strategic Objectives
• Serve Alberta with diverse energy generation fleet; serve
30% of provincial customers by 2021
• Provide customers with reliable and low cost power
• Leverage world class Energy Marketing Team to deliver
value for customers and shareholders
Customer
Focus
• Maintain investment grade rating with all agencies
• Grow FFO/share by 3 – 5% and FCF/share by 4 – 6% per
year
• Deliver average of $40 – $60 million per year in EBITDA
from new growth
• Provide shareholders with annual total return of 8 – 10%
Financial
Operations • Achieve top quartile operations and meet availability
targets
• Realize best performance in Health and Safety
10 10
Alberta Market
11 11
TransAlta’s Position in the Alberta Market
Current By 2020
• 40% of total generation; ~15% of total
customer business
• 30% of total customers under
1 - 5 year contracts
• 13% of total offer control • ~30% of total offer control
• ~80% contract coverage through
Alberta legislated PPAs and long-term
contracts
• Offering to large-scale customers
for cost of service long-term
contracts
• Capital needs to support strong
availability across the coal PPAs
• Manage coal plant availability to
support end of life with less
capital
12 12
Managing Low Merchant Prices in Alberta
Opportunities
• The Alberta PPA’s were designed
for low price periods
• TransAlta’s Alberta fleet has the
lowest cost structure among
Alberta generators
• Disciplined investment until prices
recover
Risk
• If low prices persist to 2018, there
is potential for the upside from the
post-PPA value of Sundance 1 & 2
to be reduced
• Oversupply in the Alberta power
market and low gas prices are
driving historic lows for Alberta
power prices
$20
$30
$40
2015 2016
Alberta Forward Curve
13 13
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Hydro Wind Coal Cogen/CC GasPeakers
Competitive Position - Low Cost Generation in Alberta
Diversity and optionality positions TransAlta for success in Alberta
• TransAlta has the largest and most diverse fleet in the Alberta market
• Low-cost structure allows us to be very competitive while still earning strong
margins
• Diverse assets combined with marketing platform allows us to serve customers
in short and long-term
Providing our
customers with a
competitive and
reliable offering
TransAlta’s
Market Share
in AB: 96% 29% 57% 7% 0%
Marginal Costs Customer Representation
TransAlta’s Average
Marginal Cost in AB
$/MWh
14 14
Current Low Prices in Alberta Create Opportunities
• Low-cost asset base
enables competitive
product offerings
• Marketing platform
balances our supply
portfolio with customer
product demands
• Significant customer
growth
• Marketing captures
asset optionality and
market volatility
Allows TransAlta to achieve stable cash flow while capturing upside
TransAlta customer growth MW
TransAlta’s goal is to have 30% market share of the Alberta market by 2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2009 2012 2014 Medium termtarget
Long termtarget
Co-gen C&I Large Industrial Target
15 15
Total Market Capacity: 15,777 MW
TransAlta currently has 11% offer control in the Alberta market – this will
increase to ~30% after the expiry of the Alberta PPA’s
TransAlta currently offers 11% of the provinces power supply into the market – this
will increase to ~30% after the full expiry of the Alberta PPA’s in 2021
Value Potential as Alberta Legislated PPAs Expire
TransAlta 11%
Capital Power 10%
ATCO 11%
ENMAX 18% Uncontrolled
11%
TransCanada 17%
Other 22%
TransAlta ~30%
Capital Power 15%
ATCO 12%
ENMAX 8%
Oil and Gas 15%
TransCanada 2%
Other 15%
16 16
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2015 - 2020 2015 - 2030
Alberta Requires Significant New Investment Longer-term
Load growth, coal retirements and extensions mean investment opportunities
Projected load growth and
capacity replacement
Peak load growth
Peak load growth
Coal retirements/
Coal reinvestment
MW
Coal retirements/
Coal reinvestment
• Oil and gas sector
remains a major
economic driver even
with weaker world oil
prices
• 3% average
historical load
growth
• ~ 1M barrels/d of
oilsands capacity
committed
through 2017
17 17
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
2014 2017E 2018E 2021E
Existing Business Australian Growth Post PPA upside Post PPA upside
Near-term Growth Potential
Significant incremental EBITDA by 2021 when Alberta PPAs expire
Committed growth cash flows & Post-PPA upside support
EBITDA growth for the next 7 years
$M
Upside at
$75/MWH Upside at
$65/MWH Upside at
$55/MWH
18 18
Financial Strength and
Funding Strategy
19 19
Competitiveness
Financial Flexibility
Growth
Strengthening our Financial Position – Why?
Maintain investment grade credit ratings to increase our competitiveness
Agency Rating Outlook S&P BBB- Stable
Moody’s BAA3 Negative
DBRS BBB Stable
Fitch BBB- Stable
All rating agencies have
recently re-affirmed our
investment grade credit rating:
1 Access to capital markets
2 Lower cost of debt
3 Access to customers
20 20
-$200M
-$135M
-$165M -$215M
~$4,000M
~85M-$285M ~$3,700 - $3,500M
Dec. 31, 2013 Feb 2014 Apr 2014 Aug 2014 March 2015 2015E
Secondary
Offering of
RNW
2014
FFO/Debt
16.9%
Includes
$174M effect
of USD
strengthening
in 2014
2015E
RNW
Invests in
Aussie
Assets
2013
Sale of
CE Gen
Issuance
of
Preferred
Shares Other
initiatives
to reduce
debt by
~$85M -
$285M by
year-end
Strengthened Financial Position
Long-Term Debt Reduction Initiatives
Met our debt reduction target of ~$500
million in 2014
Our goal is to size our debt to meet our target FFO/Debt ratio of better than 19%
by 2016 with an FFO of $750 to $800 million
~$4,300M
21 21
Significant Financial Capacity
TransAlta aims to raise between $900 million and $1.1 billion over the next 3
years to meet our current funding requirements
Significant funding available to finance additional growth opportunities
Committed Funding Requirements (2015 - 2017)
$ millions Low High
Debt Reductions $ (300) - $ (500)
Committed Growth Capital - South Hedland $ (570) - $ (570)
Total Uses $ (870) - $(1,070)
Potential Sources (2015 - 2017)
$ millions Low High
Excess Cash Flow¹ $ 300 - $ 300
Pfd Shares $ 300 - $ 500
RNW Drop Downs $ 700 - $ 1,000
DRIP $ - - $ 200
Total Sources2 $ 1,300 - $ 2,000
¹ Cash Flow after deducting sustaining capital, dividends and partner distributions
2 Does not include potential partnerships
22 22
TransAlta Corporation and TransAlta Renewables are strategically aligned
Leveraging TransAlta Renewables
TransAlta Renewables
TransAlta
Public
~70% ~30%
• TransAlta is the largest shareholder of
TransAlta Renewables and will maintain
~70% ownership
• Unlocks the value of long-life contracted
assets on attractive terms
• Provides access to lower cost funding
• Funds growth and debt reduction
• Strong currency to support accretive
acquisition of third party assets
23 23
$9.50
$10.50
$11.50
$12.50
$13.50
Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
TransAlta Renewables (TSX:RNW)
• Created in August 2013 to provide stable, consistent returns for investors through the
ownership of highly contracted power generation and other infrastructure assets.
37 megawatts installed
net generating capacity
1,830 regions
7 Wind
Hydro
Gas Generation
Gas Pipeline
Electric Transmission operating sites
$3.4 billion Market Cap
$2.7 million in 2014
adjusted EBITDA
$176 annual dividend per share
$0.84 billion Enterprise Value
*Includes the estimated contribution for a full year of operations from the Fortescue River Gas Pipeline and the South Hedland Power Station
Share price performance since Initial Public Offering
24 24
Executing the First Step of our Funding Strategy
TransAlta Renewables agreed to acquire an economic interest in
TransAlta’s Australian portfolio in March 2015 for $1.8 billion
With the closing of the transaction in May 2015, TransAlta has
received:
• Net cash proceeds of ~$216.9 million
• ~$1.1 billion of Common and Class B Shares in RNW, increasing its
ownership from 70% to 76%
Transaction delivered significant benefits to TransAlta:
• Unlocked the value of TransAlta’s highly contracted Australian portfolio
(book value of the assets was ~$1.0 billion)
• Created a stronger sponsored vehicle positioned for future growth
• ~$216.9 million net cash proceeds will be used to reduce indebtedness
• Will benefit from the resulting cash flow accretion at RNW as the 76%
majority owner
• TransAlta will continue to manage and operate the portfolio
• Provides an efficient source of funding for the South Hedland project
25 25
Inventory of Drop-Down Opportunities
Gas Fired
Generation
• ~1,000 MW in Alberta & Ontario
• ~$220 million annual EBITDA
Alberta Hydro
• ~800 MW from 13 units in Alberta
• ~$60 - $120 million annual
EBITDA
Additional
Renewables
• 99 MW contracted wind farm in
Quebec
• 7 MW contracted hydro facility in
Ontario
• ~$12.5 million annual EBITDA
Potential Drop-Down Candidates
26 26
Growth Strategy
27 27
Growing TransAlta
• Add customized
customer product
offerings
• Replace Alberta PPAs
with direct customer
contracts
• Extend the life of our
existing assets
• Acquisitions and
development of new
projects
Actively Evaluating 6,700 MW (~$10 billion) of
Growth Opportunities across all of our core markets
- 1,000 2,000 3,000
Carbon Capture
Renewables
Grid Connected Gas Fired
Behind the Fence Gas Fired
MW
Opportunity Set (MW)
28 28
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Greenfield Acquisition
Proven Track Record of Growth
$4.0 billion of growth during last five years
$650 million of growth underway
$M
Capital Invested in Growth
$650 million in
committed capital
~$90 million in
incremental
EBITDA
29 29
Growth Strategy
Prepare for final
stages of
de-regulation in
the Alberta
market
• Manage volatility in the Alberta market by continuing to
grow Customer business from 700 MW to 3,000 MW of
customers by 2021
• Support large industrial customers by offering behind the
fence service arrangements
• Extend the life of our existing portfolio by either:
• converting coal to gas or
• investing in Carbon Capture and Storage
• Build gas and wind storage for plants on a cost of
services basis for customers who can contract for 10
years
• Generate additional customer business in chemical,
mining and oil and gas sector
• Focus on U.S., Ontario, Saskatchewan and B.C.
• Built on strong experience from Australia and Alberta
business with FMG, BHP and Dow Chemical
Capitalize on
behind the fence
experience with
large scale
customers
30 30
Growth Strategy
Capitalize on
locational
advantages in
Washington State
• Find a customer for Centralia 3
• Find additional contracts for Centralia
• Potential to grow large scale utilities through
development of contracted Gas-fired
facilities or acquisition of contracted
Renewables projects
Attract more large
scale utilities to our
customer base
31 31
Capital Allocation Metrics
Growth Metrics Metric
Operating
Assets In Construction Development Stage Range
Non-contracted 8 -11% +2% +2% 8 -15%
Contracted 6 - 8% +1% +2% 6 -11%
We will allocate capital to grow our business with discipline
• Targeted return will depend on location, technology and stage of construction or development
32 32
Environmental Regulations
33 33
Environmental Regulations – The Facts
• Canadian federal regulations amended in 2012 designate useful life of coal plants as 50
years
• Weighted average life of TransAlta’s Alberta coal fleet is ~17 years
• Flexibility provisions enabling unit substitution and ability to apply years from one closed
unit to another to extend operating life
• Overlapping air emission regulation on SOx and NOx
• As an outcome of forced coal unit retirements, the federal GHG regulations will equal and
eventually exceed the effects of CASA
Plant MW Annual GWh1 Final GHG Regulations
Sundance 1 & 2 560 4,170 2019
Sundance 3 368 2,740 2026
Sundance 4 406 3,023 2027
Sundance 5 406 3,023 2028
Sundance 6 401 2,986 2029
Keephills 1 & 2 790 6,046 2029
Sheerness 1 98 1,415 2036
Sheerness 2 98 1,415 2040
Genesee 3 233 1,675 2055
Keephills 3 232 1,675 2061
¹ Based on 85% availability
34 34
CASA & Federal GHG Regulations
Opportunities
• Align Federal early shut-down rules and longer term CASA
regulations
• Ensure credit for NOX/SOX reductions due to early shut down
required under Federal regulations
• Potential to reduce GHG’s/NOX/SOX through a mass based
approach to both sets of regulations
Risk
• Required to install NOX and SOX equipment for 2021
35 35
Appendix
36 36
Highly Diversified Portfolio
Diversified asset base with 64 facilities strategically positioned in Canada, Western U.S. and Western Australia
One of Canada’s largest publicly traded power generators & marketers with
over 100 years of operating experience
37 37
Financial performance by Business Segment
Business Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014
EBITDA ($M)
Canadian Coal $273 $373 $309 $386
U.S. Coal $211 $148 $66 $62
Gas $275 $312 $327 $309
Wind $163 $151 $180 $177
Hydro $105 $127 $147 $85
Energy Marketing $101 ($13) $61 $76
Corporate Segment ($84) ($83) ($67) $(59)
Comparable EBITDA
($M) $1,044 $1,016 $1,024 $1,036
Comparable FFO ($M) $812 $788 $729 $762
38 38
Sustaining Capex by Business Segment
Sustaining Capital $M
Business Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014
Generation Segment
Canadian Coal $121 $316 $237 $211
U.S. Coal $63 $32 $16 $12
Gas $69 $49 $58 $63
Wind $7 $4 $9 $12
Hydro $32 $14 $14 $21
Corporate $27 $24 $22 $23
Sustaining Capital $319 $439 $341 $342
39 39
$120 $27 $177 $400
$500
$400
$520
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CAD MTN USD Notes
Debt Maturity schedule and Liquidity
• As at March 31, 2015, ~$1.0 billion in available liquidity and $700 million
drawn on credit facilities
• Liquidity was used to repay $500 million SD maturity in Jan. 2015.
• No significant maturity until 2017-2018
Debt Maturity Schedule
$M