investor relations presentation · 2015 2019 2023 2027 78,741 81,322 84,247 86,777 economy 140.0...

Investor Relations Presentation - Q3 2016 | 1

Investor Relations PresentationQ3 2016 ResultsUpdated: December 2016


Agenda

Doğuş Otomotiv / Value Chain 2016

Macroeconomic Outlook

Automotive Market

Financial Performance


Doğuş Otomotiv / Value Chain 2016

Presence in Every Link of The Automotive Value Chain

*Subsidiaries**Representative Offices

Replacement Parts and After Sales Services

Quick Fix to all Brands

Spare Parts&Logistics

Core BusinessAutomotive

Related Ancillary Business

Retail

Doğuş OtomotivIndependent

Authorized Dealers

Finance

Automotive Financing

Insurance

Insurance

Used Vehicle Sales

DOD

Used Vehicle Sales

Other Investments

TÜVTÜRK

Import and Distribution

Yüce Auto


Macroeconomic Outlook


Macroeconomic Indicators

YoY Inflation (%)

11-1

0

03-

10

11-1

0

11-1

1

11-1

2

03-

14

03-

15

07-

10

03-

11

03-

12

03-

13

07-

14

07-

15

11-1

1

11-1

2

11-1

3

11-1

4

02-

12

02-

13

02-

14

02-

15

05-

16

08

-16

11-1

6

02-

16

11-1

5

08

-12

08

-13

08

-14

08

-15

07-

11

07-

12

11-1

3

07-

13

11-1

4

02-

11

05-

12

05-

13

05-

14

05-

15

11-1

5

03-

16

07-

16

11-1

6

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

-5.00

Annual CPI Annual PPI Nominal Exchange Rates

3.70

3.40

3.10

2.80

2.50

2.20

1.90

1.60

1.30

1.00

US$/TRY EUR/TRY Basket (0.5US$+0.5EUR)

Auto Loan Rates (%)

2.13%

1.09%

2.70

2.20

1.70

1.20

0.70

0.20

TRY EURO US$ Consumer Confidence Index

105.0100.095.090.085.080.075.070.065.060.055.0

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

Consumer Confidence Index Retail Sales Total LV

11-1

0

11-1

1

11-1

2

11-1

3

11-1

4

05-

10

05-

11

05-

12

05-

13

05-

14

05-

15

08

-10

08

-11

08

-12

08

-13

08

-14

11-1

50

2-16

05-

160

8-1

611

-16

08

-15

02-

10

02-

11

02-

12

02-

13

02-

14

02-

15

6.41%

13.67% 12.98%

11.14%7.00%

08

-11

05-

11

3.64

3.533.42

1.44%

1.15%

11-0

6

11-0

7

11-0

8

11-0

9

11-1

0

11-1

1

11-1

2

11-1

3

05-

06

11-0

5

05-

07

05-

08

05-

09

05-

10

05-

11

05-

12

05-

13

05-

14

11-1

4

11-1

5

05-

16

11-1

6

05-

15


Young population and fiscal reforms push the country towards stable and sustainable growth.

Population is increasing on an average 1.5% each year.

64% of population will be between the age group 15 to 59 years.

Share of people in the age group between 35 to 59 will increase by 3%.

Note: All figures are rounded; the base years is 2009. Source: IMF, TurkStat, Frost Sullivan

Population & Demography

Age Demography

2015 2023

Above6012% 15%

35-5931%34%

15-3433%

30%

0-1424% 21%

Population & Demography

Population Statistics (’000)

2015 2019 20272023

78,741

81,322

84,247

86,777

Economy

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0

GD

P -

(B

illio

n T

urk

ish

Lir

a)

GD

P Y

oY

Ch

ang

e (

%)

Real GDP GDP YoY Growth

12/0

30

6/0

412

/04

06

/05

12/0

50

6/0

612

/06

06

/07

12/0

7

12/0

8

12/0

9

12/1

0

12/1

1

12/1

2

12/1

3

12/1

4

12/1

5

06

/08

06

/09

06

/10

06

/11

06

/12

06

/13

06

/14

06

/15

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

7.006.005.004.003.002.001.00

0.00-1.00-2.00-3.00

Trade Deficit Export Import

Auto Industry Trade Balance (US$ bn)

98 9900 01 0203 04 0506070809 10 151412 131 1


Automotive Market


1.8%-1.2%

7.2%

1.7%

5.9%

-4.3%

-14.0%

-29.1%

4.7%

2.1%

10.3%

8.1%

North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe South America Rest of the World Asia Pacific

(1) Figures excl. Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania and MAN. Source: VW Group 2016 Presentation.

Development world car market vs. Volkswagen Group Car Deliveries to Customers (1) (Growth y-o-y in deliveries to customers, January to September 2016 vs. 2015)

Car Market VW Group


(1) Incl. all brands of Volkswagen Group (Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles); +2.1% excl. Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania and MAN. (2) MAN incl. MAN Latin America Trucks and Buses GVW>5t.

Volkswagen Group

Jan-Sep 2015 Jan-Sep 2016 Change

DELIVERIES TO CUSTOMERS BY BRANDS(‘000 units)

VOLKSWAGEN GROUP

2.4%(1)

0.6%

AUDI

4.5%

1,348 1,409

6.2%

SKODA

791 841

1.5%

SEAT

308 313

3.0%

PORSCHE

173 178

VW LCV

9.1%

321 351

MAN (2)

-0.4%

74 74

SCANIA

6.9%

55 59

Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles

VW PV

4,350 4,375

7,431 7,609

Source: VW Group 2016 Presentation.


Volkswagen Group

FINANCIAL AND SALES PERFORMANCE(EUR mn)

Deliveries to Customers(‘000 units)

7,646 7,440 7,653

Sales Revenue(EUR mn)

147,718

160,263 159,932

Operating Profit Margin(%)

6.4 6.47.0

Operating Profit(EUR mn)

9,41910,197

11,267

Profit Before Tax Margin(%)

7.8

3.2

5.1

Profit Before Tax(EUR mn)

11,490

5,142

8,159

8%

8%

-55%

-3%

0%

10% 59%

3%

Source: VW Group 2Q2016 Annual Report.

3Q2014 3Q2015 3Q2016 Change


DOAS Wholesales Performance - 2015

12M2014 12M2015 Change

DOAS TOTAL 155,995 205,593 32%

VW PV 85,134 106,677 25%

VW LCV 23,191 33,411 44%

AUDI 17,070 21,100 24%

SKODA 14,397 22,435 56%

SEAT 12,540 17,212 37%

SCANIA 2,014 3,291 63%

KRONE 716 158 -78%

PORSCHE 601 877 46%

MEILLER 309 407 32%

BENTLEY 21 19 -10%

LAMBORGHINI 2 6 200%DOAS TO

TAL

SKODA

VW LC

V

SCANIA

MEILL

ER

VW PV

SEAT

PORSCHEAUDI

KRONE*

BENTLEY

LAM

BORGHINI

32%

25%

44%24% 56% 37%

63% -78% 46% 32% -10% 200%

12M2014 12M2015 Change

*The sales agreement of Krone Doğuş Treyler Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş., which was signed between Our company, Dogus Group representing 49% of its total capital, and Fahrzeugwerk Bernard Krone GmbH on 29.01.2015, was finalized after all permissions were received.


DOAS Wholesales Performance - November 2016

11M2015 11M2016 Change

DOAS TOTAL 185,722 192,163 3%

VW PV 98,461 93,672 -5%

VW LCV 30,021 30,140 0%

AUDI 17,728 19,698 11%

SKODA 19,449 26,164 35%

SEAT 16,050 19,811 23%

SCANIA 2,724 1,872 -31%

KRONE 154 2 -99%

PORSCHE 732 780 7%

MEILLER 383 8 -98%

BENTLEY 14 9 -36%

LAMBORGHINI 6 7 17%DOAS TO

TAL

SKODA

VW LC

V

SCANIA

MEILL

ER

VW PV

SEAT

PORSCHEAUDI

KRONE*

BENTLEY

LAM

BORGHINI

3%

-5%

0%

11% 35% 23%

-31% -99% 7% -98% -36% 17%

11M2015 11M2016 Change

*The sales agreement of Krone Doğuş Treyler Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş., which was signed between Our company, Dogus Group representing 49% of its total capital, and Fahrzeugwerk Bernard Krone GmbH on 29.01.2015, was finalized after all permissions were received.


Wholesale Market Monthly Sales

DOAS Monthly Sales

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

33,674

36,953

64,34888,785 85,574

93,765 90,75096,172 96,479

84,313 93,342

90,85683,025

67,93656,425

63,963 63,088

63,494

61,477 59,563

71,98288,100

142,245

89,044

134,289

49,45639,316

32,020

-5% 4%

8,935

15,541

15,760

15,811

20,141 20,827 20,323

18,103

19,486

18,243 17,468

11,805

13,943

13,72611,873

10,724

16,062

15,766

19,843

20,94822,051

19,262

13,71912,966 13,498

10,3787,8269,088

-8% 3%

6,911

62,761

17,31314,573

16,074

-16%

68,580

-15%

72,355

2014 2015 2016 Change (Quarterly ∆16/15)

71,401

87,700

127,044

72,069

2014 2015 2016 Change (Quarterly ∆16/15)

15,859

17,181

24,362


Market Review - Wholesale - 2015

MARKET DOAS

Total Market PC Premium LCV HCV*

154,970

17,69423,191

33,411

2,014 3,291

22,002

168,326

129,765

205,028

32%

24% 44%

63%

30%

DOAS TotalPC Premium LCV HCV*

793,097

582,117

726,477

75,756

179,919

245,027

31,061 33,652

94,829

1,005,156

27%

25%

25%

36%

8%

*Excluding Krone and Meiller

December 2014 December 2015 Change December 2014 December 2015 Change


Market Review - Wholesale - November 2016

MARKET DOAS

November 2015 November 2016 Change November 2015 November 2016 Change

Total Market PC Premium LCV HCV*

185,185

18,48030,021 30,140

2,724 1,872

20,494

160,141152,440

192,153

4%

11%0%

-31%

5%

DOAS TotalPC Premium LCV HCV*

863,576

627,849669,153

82,627

207,312 198,143

28,415 16,412

85,055

883,708

2%

7%

3%

-4%

-42%

*Oct 2016 HCV market is an expected sales number.


Market Share - Retail - 2015

RETAIL MARKET2013

YEAR END2014

YEAR END2015

YEAR END

2013 YEAR END/ 2014 YEAR END

CHANGE

2014 YEAR END/ 2015 YEAR END

CHANGEPASSENGER VEHICLE %

DOAS 19.3 22.2 23.1 2.9 0.9RENAULT 18.9 20.1 19.2 1.2 -0.9TOFAS 7.8 6.9 7.1 -0.9 0.3OPEL 8.4 6.7 6.5 -1.7 -0.2HYUNDAI 7.2 7.7 6.9 0.5 -0.8FORD 8.8 6.4 6.5 -2.5 0.2TOYOTA 5.4 5.8 6.6 0.4 0.8MERCEDES-BENZ 3.1 3.9 4.2 0.8 0.3OTHER 21.1 19.9 19.8 -1.2 -0.1

LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE %FORD 26.4 27.5 29.5 1.1 2.0TOFAŞ 25.1 27.5 25.6 2.4 -1.9DOAS 12.6 13.3 13.1 0.7 -0.3RENAULT 10.1 8.5 9.6 -1.6 1.1PEUGEOT 5.8 3.9 4.8 -1.9 0.9MERCEDES-BENZ 5.5 4.5 3.5 -1.1 -1.0CITROEN 5.5 4.5 4.9 -1.0 0.4MITSUBISHI 2.0 2.4 1.9 0.4 -0.6OTHER 7.0 8.0 7.3 1.0 -0.7

LIGHT VEHICLE %DOAS 17.8 20.1 20.6 2.3 0.5RENAULT 17.0 17.4 16.8 0.4 -0.6FORD 12.7 11.3 12.3 -1.4 0.9TOFAŞ 11.5 12.0 11.8 0.5 -0.2OPEL 6.6 5.1 4.9 -1.5 -0.2HYUNDAI 5.8 6.1 5.4 0.3 -0.7TOYOTA 4.5 4.7 5.3 0.2 0.6MERCEDES-BENZ 3.6 4.1 4.0 0.5 0.0OTHER 20.5 19.6 19.2 -0.9 -0.4

RENAULT TOFASDOAS OPEL HYUNDAI

PV TOP 5 DECEMBER 15

FORD DOASTOFAS RENAULT PEUGEOT

LCV TOP 5 DECEMBER 15

LV TOP 5 DECEMBER 15

DOAS FORDRENAULT TOFAS OPEL

23.1%

7.1%

19.2%

6.9% 6.6%

29.5%

13.1%

25.6%

9.6%4.9%

20.6%

12.3%

16.8%

11.8%

5.4%


Market Share - Retail - November 2016

RETAIL MARKET2014

YEAR END2015

YEAR ENDYTD

NOV 15YTD

NOV 16

2015YE/YTD NOV 2016 CHANGE

YTD NOV 2015/ YTD NOV 2016

CHANGEPASSENGER VEHICLE %

DOAS 22.2 23.1 23.8 23.3 0.2 -0.5RENAULT 20.1 19.2 18.8 19.1 -0.1 0.3TOFAS 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.3 0.1 0.2OPEL 6.7 6.48 6.2 7.2 0.7 1.0HYUNDAI 7.7 6.9 7.0 6.6 -0.3 -0.4TOYOTA 5.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 -0.4 -0.1FORD 6.4 6.5 6.6 5.6 -0.9 -1.1MERCEDES-BENZ 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.6 0.4 0.4OTHER 20.1 19.9 20.0 20.2 0.3 0.2

LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE %FORD 27.5 29.5 29.3 29.9 0.4 0.6TOFAŞ 27.5 25.6 24.7 23.3 -2.3 -1.4DOAS 13.3 13.1 13.7 15.2 2.1 1.4RENAULT 8.5 9.6 9.3 8.8 -0.7 -0.4PEUGEOT 3.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 -0.2 -0.1CITROEN 4.5 4.9 4.9 3.7 -1.2 -1.2MERCEDES-BENZ 4.5 3.5 3.7 3.6 0.1 -0.1TOYOTA 0.9 1.2 1.3 2.4 1.2 1.2OTHER 9.5 7.9 8.5 8.5 0.6 0.0

LIGHT VEHICLE %DOAS 20.1 20.6 21.3 21.5 0.9 0.1RENAULT 17.4 16.8 16.5 16.7 0.0 0.3FORD 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.2 -1.1 -1.1TOFAŞ 12.0 11.8 11.4 10.9 -0.8 -0.4OPEL 5.1 4.9 4.7 5.6 0.7 0.9TOYOTA 4.7 5.3 5.1 5.4 0.1 0.2HYUNDAI 6.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 0.0 -0.1MERCEDES-BENZ 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 0.3 0.3OTHER 19.3 19.2 19.4 19.2 0.0 -0.2

DOAS TOFASRENAULT OPEL HYUNDAI

PV TOP 5 NOVEMBER 16

FORD DOASTOFAS RENAULT PEUGEOT

LCV TOP 5 NOVEMBER 16

LV TOP 5 NOVEMBER 16

DOAS TOFASRENAULT FORD OPEL

23.3%

7.3%

19.1%

7.2% 6.6%

29.9%

15.2%

23.3%

8.8%4.6%

21.5%

11.2%

16.7%

10.9%

5.6%


Financial Performance


Consolidated Income Statement

(TL mn, CMB) 30 Sep 16 30 Sep 15 Change (%)

Revenue 7,961 7,958 0%

Gross Profit 810 824 -2%

Operational Expenses -536 -435 23%

Selling and Marketing Expenses -232 -202 15%

General Administrative Expenses -279 -213 31%

Warranty Expenses, net -61 -51 21%

Other Operating Expenses, net 36 31 17%

EBITDA 321 424 -24%

EBIT 274 390 -30%

Margins 30 Sep 16 30 Sep 15 Change (%)

Gross Margin 10.2% 10.4% -2%

Opex/Sales 6.7% 5.5% 23%

EBITDA Margin 4.0% 5.3% -24%

EBIT Margin 3.4% 4.9% -30%

Net Profit Margin 1.8% 3.7% -52%


(TL '000) 30 Sep 16 Vertical Analysis

30 Sep 15 Vertical Analysis

Change (%)

Revenue 7,961,137 7,958,385 0%Direct cost of revenue -7,151,472 -90% -7,133,976 -90% 0%Gross profit 809,665 10% 824,409 10% -2%Selling, marketing and distribution expenses -231,546 -3% -201,996 -3% 15%SG&A Expenses -279,492 -4% -212,770 -3% 31%Warranty expenses -60,875 -1% -50,513 -1% 21%Other operating incomes/losses, net 35,754 0% 30,601 0% 17%Results from operating activities 273,506 3% 389,731 5% -30%Income from Investing Activities 9,259 37,324 Income Loss from Associates 74,549 54,638 36%Financial incomes/costs, net -196,018 -124,680 57%Profit before income tax 161,296 2% 357,013 4% -55%Tax expense -18,737 -59,677 -69%Profit for the year 142,559 2% 297,336 4% -52%

Consolidated Income Statement

Selling, marketing and distribution expenses• 13% Increase in Advertisement Expenses

Impacts on revenue and direct cost of revenue:

- *Increased EUR/TLvolatilityin 9M16. - FOB prices increased in some PC models. - Suspension of sales of Jetta and Caddy

models in October 2015 affected due to “Dieselgate”.

- OEM related production limitation and model mix constraints

General Administration Expenses• Increase in personnel expenses by 27%

Income/Loss from Associates 30 Sep 16 Cumulative 30 Sep 15 Cumulative

VDF 34,615 11,834Doğuş Sigorta 911 1,686SKODA (Yüce Oto) 7,901 6,328VDF Servis Holding 9,393 9,048TÜVTURK Group 22,332 26,100Meiller-Doğuş -767 -731Doğuş Technology 164 373Grand Total 74,549 54,638


Financing Costs

(TL mn, CMB) 30 Sep 2016 30 Sep 2015 Change (%)

Financing Costs -196.01 -124.68 57%

Finance expenses, net -195.67 -120.34 63%

Interest expense on borrowings -191.30 -117.25 63%

Commission expenses on letters of guarantee -2.55 -2.27 13%

Other financial expenses -1.82 -0.83 120%

Foreign Exchange gain/loss, net* -0.34 -4.34 -92%

CMB: Capital Market Boards of Turkey

*arising from credit loans


Consolidated Balance Sheet

(TL ’000) 30 Sep 16 31 Dec 15

ASSETS 4,958,553 3,979,903 Cash and cash equivalents 60,724 71,870 Trade receivables 758,397 1,103,939 Inventories 2,414,148 1,214,122 Tangible and intangible non-current assets 764,522 684,891 Financial Investments 517,333 511,815 Investments in equity accounted investees 279,836 239,010 Other 163,593 154,256

LIABILITIES 3,877,050 2,617,020 Financial liabilities 2,709,309 1,941,124 Trade payables 1,027,108 509,411 Provisions 75,965 68,920 Other 64,668 97,565

EQUITY 1,081,503 1,362,883

Inventories: • Increase in goods in transit (vehicle)

• 30 September 2016: 2.414.148K TL• 31 December 2015: 1.214.122K TL

• Number of vehicles increased from 14.426 units to 35.105 units as of 30.09.2016.

Trade Payables:Trade Payables; of the company increased by 102% compared to 31.12.2015. The main reason for the rise is the increase in payables to OEM due to the increase in the amount of inventory in 9M16.

Financial liabilities:Cost of debt for the short term loans increased by 1 basis points in 9M16 compared to 9M15.

Investments in Equity Accounted Investees 30 Sep 16 31 Dec 15

AssociatesVDF 119,896 85,281Doğuş Sigorta 32,780 32,709Yüce Auto (SKODA) 22,002 17,298VDF Servis 42,245 32,852Doğuş Teknoloji 6,067 4,523

Joint VenturesTÜVTURK North - South (Consolidated)

51,620 60,354

Meiller-Doğuş 5,226 5,993Total 279,836 239,010

Other 30 Sep 16 31 Dec 15

VAT payable 16,779 61,501 Income tax payable 16,213 3,166 Deferred income 20,596 13,604 Payables related to employee benefits

8,172 13,894

Deferred tax liabilities 214 2,625 Other 2,694 2,775

Provisions 30 Sep 16 31 Dec 15

Warranty Provisions 39,478 35,617Legal Provisions 15,826 14,173Provision for unused vacation 5,714 5,193

Long-term provisions related to employee benefits 14,947 13,937

Other 30 Sep 16 31 Dec 15

Investment property 19,912 20,222Warranty claims and price difference receivables 32,337 28,072

Prepaid Expenses short-term 36,197 15,749

Advances Given 6,327 3,449Receivables due to insurance claims 10,057 9,459

Deferred tax assets 21,328 5,662Advances given for property and equipment purchases 18,181 28,090

Prepaid Expenses long-term 5,841 721Deferred tax 339 20,403Current income tax assets 528 15,984Other 12,546 6,445


Consolidated Balance Sheet

(Balance Sheet mn,TL) 30 Sep 16 31 Dec 15 Change (%)

Total Assets 4,959 3,980 25%

Total Equity 1,082 1,363 -21%

Net working capital -489 236 -308%

Net cash position -2,677 -1,902 -41%

CAPEX 147 169 -13%

Receivable Turnover (day) 26 37 -30%

Inventory Turnover (day) 92 45 104%

Payable Turnover (day) 39 19 107%

Net Debt/EBITDA 6.2 3.7 68%

ROA 2.9% 7.6% -62%

ROE 13.2% 22.2% -41%


Stock Price History

Shareholders Structure % Share Amount (TL)

DOĞUŞ HOLDİNG AŞ. 35.21% 77,461,218DOĞUŞ ARAŞTIRMA GEL. VE MÜŞ. HİZM.A.Ş. 30.29% 66,638,086OTHER DOĞUŞ GROUP COMPANIES 0.00% 696PUBLICLY TRADED 34.50% 75,900,000TOTAL 100.00% 220,000,000

BIST 100 Relative DOAS TL 20.00

18.00

16.00

14.00

12.00

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00Nov 06

Nov 07

Nov 08

Nov 09

Nov 10

Nov 11

Nov 12

Nov 13

Nov 14

Nov 15

May 06

May 07

May 08

May 09

May 10

May 11

May 12

May 13

May 14

May 15

Nov 16

1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00


Disclaimer

Doğuş Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.Ş. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing information and projections and statements relating to the DOAS (the “Information”). DOAS cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information, and cannot be responsible for the results. The Information is subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied, disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the Document and/or Information delivered or sent by DOAS or who required a copy of the same from the DOAS. Any and all information contained in this document are strictly confidential.

investor relations presentation · 2015 2019 2023 2027 78,741 81,322 84,247 86,777 economy 140.0...

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