investor update - glencore788358b0-f521-4afa-8bd0...cobalt, oil/gas, pgms, diamonds, thermal coal,...
TRANSCRIPT
Investor update12 December 2017
Cut Nickel cathode, Nikkelverk, Norway
Important notice concerning this document including forward looking statements
This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward looking statements” which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as “outlook”, "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "continues", "assumes", "is subject to", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "aims", "forecasts", "risks", "intends", "positioned", "predicts", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words or comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", “shall”, "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition and discussions of strategy.
By their nature, forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Glencore’s control. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Glencore’s 2016 Annual Report.
Neither Glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this document will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which only speak as of the date of this document. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Listing Requirements of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Limited), Glencore is not under any obligation and Glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the business or affairs of Glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its date.
No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per Glencore share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per Glencore share.
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The making of this document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities.
The companies in which Glencore plc directly and indirectly has an interest are separate and distinct legal entities. In this document, “Glencore”, “Glencore group” and “Group” are used for convenience only where references are made to Glencore plc and its subsidiaries in general. These collective expressions are used for ease of reference only and do not imply any other relationship between the companies. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer collectively to members of the Group or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies.
2
HighlightsIvan Glasenberg - CEO
Copper cathode, Townsville copper refinery, Australia
Glencore in four elements
4Note: (1) See slide 26. (2) Net debt defined as gross debt less cash and cash equivalents and readily marketable inventories.
Compelling commodity mix• Leading global producer of “Tier 1” commodities: copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc & thermal coal• “Tier 1” commodity outlooks underpinned by persistent supply challenges and robust demand• Best placed large cap company for Electric Vehicle revolution
Cash generative & unique business model• “Tier 1” Industrial Assets – sustainably low-cost & long-life• Marketing is highly cash generative across the cycle• 2018 illustrative(1) FCF of c.$7.4bn from EBITDA of c.$16.2 bn at spot/forward prices
Able and willing to grow our business• We define growth as growth in cash flows• Reactivate idled capacity when appropriate• Low-cost brownfield options • Bolt-on acquisitions focused on existing commodities/geographies• Strong track record of investment
Conservative financial policy• Optimal Net debt(2) range of $10-16bn, Net debt /EBITDA < 2.0x through the cycle• Distribution policy to take effect from 2018 (in respect of 2017 cash flows) comprising fixed $1bn base distribution from
Marketing plus a minimum payout of 25% of Industrial FCF• Prudent reinvestment and recycling of capital
Compelling commodity mix in a changing world
• Copper: where is “the wall of supply”?Demand: robust demand, critical to electric vehicle adoptionSupply: underinvestment, grade declines & elevated strike risk
• Cobalt: enabling the electric vehicle storyDemand: EV batteries, super alloys, consumer electronicsSupply: geological scarcity, by-product of Cu, Ni
• Zinc: supply constraintsDemand: increasing galvanising rates in EM Supply: underinvestment and environmental restrictions
• Lead: underpinned by supply challengesDemand: robust battery and energy storage dynamicsSupply: underinvestment and environmental restrictions
• Nickel: crucial to electric vehiclesDemand: EV batteries, critical alloys, austenitic stainlessSupply: Declining sulphides, long lead time, scarce Class1 Ni
• Thermal Coal: Powering Asian growth & urbanisationDemand: key to EM industrialisation & growthSupply: underinvestment, declining energy content
GLEN Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4Early Cycle Mid Cycle Late Cycle
Example commodities by cycle stage:Early: Iron Ore, Coking coal, ManganeseMid: Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Aluminium, LeadLate: Cobalt, Oil/Gas, PGMs, Diamonds, Thermal Coal, Agricultural products
5
Glencore most exposed to mid / late cycle commodities(1)
Notes: (1) Source UBS, commodities weighted by contribution to 2018F EBITDA as at 4 December 2017
• Commodity differentiation is increasingly important – accelerated by electric vehicle adoption• Our base metal-centric commodity mix is becoming less dependent on developing markets fixed asset investment
Resilient and proven cash generative business model
Industrial: “Tier 1” Assets in “Tier 1” Commodities• Genuinely diversified by geography and
commodity– Major producer of copper, cobalt, zinc, nickel and
thermal coal• These commodities combine persistent industry
supply challenges with robust underlying demand• Sustainably low-cost long-life assets in many of
the world’s premier mining districts
Marketing: Proven high ROE business• Unique, asset-supported, highly diversified
earnings base• Consistent earnings and high cash conversion• Defensive but with upside in constructive
marketing conditions
Strongly cash generative at current prices• 2018 illustrative Group FCF of c.$7.4bn from
EBITDA of c.$16.2bn at spot/forward prices(4)
6
Strong cash margins across our Industrial assets(1)
Note: (1) Cash margin is spot cash LME (for Copper, Zinc, Nickel) less unit cost, expressed as a percentage of spot cash LME. Cash margin for coal is calculated using price (post quality discount) and unit cost assumptions on Slide 26. Disclosed cost is full cost including all cash costs to allow reconciliation and generation of EBITDA. Spot cash LME as at 11 December 2017. (2) 2017 marketing adjusted EBIT based on guidance of c.$2.8bn, 2018 marketing adjusted EBIT based on mid point of $2.7bn. (3) 2017 and 2018 Industrial adjusted EBITDA based on Bloomberg analyst consensus Group adjusted EBITDA of $14.53bn and $15.46bn respectively less mid-point of marketing EBIT guidance range ($2.8bn and $2.7bn respectively) less $175M for marketing depreciation. (4) See Slide 26 for calculations
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Marketing Adjusted EBIT
Indexed(2)
Marketing earnings resilience (Indexed 2012=100)
Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
Indexed(3)
71% 85% ex Au
48%38%
104%
Copper Zinc Nickel Coal
Conviction to create value through partnerships and M&A …
Strong deal origination skills• Unique ability to source and
structure deals using well established trading and strategic relationships
• Targeting >15% unlevered IRR and prioritising near-term paybacks for new capital deployment
• Marketing synergies targeted but not priced in
Capital efficient growth• Bolt-on acquisitions• Recycling capital
As c.30% manager/employee owners we are aligned to create long-term value
7
AgricultureGlencore Agriculture
49.99% sold to CPP/BCIMC at $6.25bn equity value (100%)
Growth vehicle in agricultural logistics/marketing
Thermal CoalHunter Valley Operations
49% of HVO with Yancoalfor $1.139bn + royalties(1)
(pending)
Access to major high-energy resources and marketing rights
ZincVolcan stake
36.9% voting shares for $734M
Access to premier district and asset/marketing synergies
OilRosneft stake/oil offtake
EUR 300M investment in partnership with QIA
Offtake contract of 220,000 bbls/d for five years
OilChevron SA / Botswana
Mid/downstream assets for $973M (pending)
Manufacturing, retail and industrial supply in S.Africaand Botswana
FerroalloysManganese alloys
Sale of European plants to Ferroglobe (pending)
10 year marketing agreement
RoyaltiesBaseCore Metals
50% of select portfolio sold to OTTP for c.$150M
Growth vehicle for base metal streams and royalties
OilHG Storage
51% sold to HNA for $775M (pending)
Growth vehicle for petroleum products storage & logistics
ZincAmerican Zinc Recycling
10% stake via issuance
Technical service and consulting agreement, long-term offtake
Note: (1) Glencore will pay cash consideration of US$1,139 million plus a 27.9% share of US$240m non-contingent royalties over five years and 49% of price contingent royalties payable by Yancoal to Rio Tinto on production from HVO in respect of the C&A acquisition. Glencore is entitled to its share of the profits of HVO from the date of Yancoal’s completion of the acquisition of C&A from Rio Tinto on 1 September 2017.
ZincTrevali
African assets sold for $400M (cash + equity)
Creation of mid-size zinc growth vehicle with 25% equity exposure and offtake agreements
CopperMutanda/Katanga
31% of Mutanda and 10.25% of KML in net $534M transaction
Increased exposure to copper/cobalt in DRC
CopperErnest Henry
30% economic stake + 100% Au sold to Evolutionfor A$880M
49% partner in some regional development outside current life of mine
… and organic reinvestment
• Adding value in a capital efficient manner, in compelling commodities• Extensive growth options across the portfolio• Adding volumes when needed (and not before)
• Key existing projects nearing completion• Katanga commissioning underway• Mopani on schedule for commissioning late 2018• Koniambo Line 2 furnace rebuild complete– First metal tap this week
• Low-cost, low-risk brownfield opportunities approved/in progress this year: including• Nickel – Integrated Nickel Operations (INO)• Zinc – Zhairem (Kazzinc)• Copper – Katanga acid plant and cobalt debottlenecking• Copper – Mutanda cobalt reclaim• Coal – United Wambo OC, Mt Owen extension
CopperKatanga acid plant
• $237M construction cost• 1,900tpd acid plant to
lower costs and increase supply chain reliability
• c.60% IRR
NickelINO Extension
• c.$170M annual spend on brownfield developments over seven years
• Raglan Phase II, OnapingDepth
• >15% IRR
Thermal CoalUnited Wambo OC JV
• $162M* brownfield mine development
• 2.6Mtpa* saleable production with synergies
• >35% IRR,
*Glencore 47.5% (50% of 95%)
OilChad West
• c.$400M “short payback” drilling programme 2018-2020
• Improved crude pricing differentials for Doba
• c.40% IRR at $60/bblBrent
CopperMutanda cobalt reclaim
• $28M construction cost• Tailings reclamation
project to recover c.21kt Co and c.4.4kt Cu over 3.5 years
• >140% IRR
8
ZincZhairem (Kazzinc)
• $400M brownfield mine development
• 14 year LOM at c.300ktpy zinc concentrate
• >40% IRR
Thermal CoalMt Owen Extension
• c.$64M brownfield mine development
• Adds c.36Mt of SSCC and low ash thermal
• Extends LOM to 2031• c.44% IRR
Long mine-lives and significant resource optionality in “Tier 1” commodities
Long-life low-cost assets in many of the world’s premier mining districts• Supports sustainable long-term cash flows
Significant mine-life extension potential embedded in all key commodities• Copper: Antapaccay brownfield extension (Coroccohuayco), Collahuasi expansion potential, Mutanda sulphides,
Lomas Bayas sulphides, Mount Isa extension etc.• Zinc: Kazzinc brownfield extensions, Contonga (Peru), brownfield optionality in newly acquired Volcan stake etc.• Nickel: Raglan, Sudbury, KNS and Murrin Murrin long-life mining districts• Thermal coal: extensive optionality and flexibility from existing operations; life extensions and brownfield developments
9Notes: (1) Based on contained metal in 2016 proven and probable ore reserves, as reported in the 2016 Reserves and Resources Statement, and weighted by annual production that is based on 2016 actual or life of mine annual average production where more representative. Excludes operations that are closed/on care and maintenance as well as projects that are not currently approved. (2) Measured and Indicated contained metal in 2016 calculated on corresponding tonnages and grades presented in the 2016 Resources and Reserves report and adjusted to reflect Glencore’s attributable interest. Excludes operations that are closed/on care and maintenance as well as projects that are not currently approved. (3) Peers are Anglo American, BHP and Rio Tinto. Weighted average reserve mine life calculated from company reserve and resource statements and weighted by production based on the prior financial year, or based on stated reserve life weighted by production.
Copper Zinc Nickel Thermal Coal
2016Reserve life(1):
19 years
2016Reserve life(1):
20 years
2016Reserve life(1):
23 years
2016Reserve life(1):
15 years
2016 M+I Mineral Resource: 51Mt(2)
Key long-life assets:• African copper • Collahuasi• Antamina• Antapaccay
2016 M+I Mineral Resource: 56Mt(2)
Key long-life assets:• Mount Isa• McArthur River• Antamina• Kazzinc
Plus resource from the newly acquired Contonga asset and the Volcan stake
2016 M+I Mineral Resource: 5.3Mt(2)
Key long-life assets:• Koniambo• Murrin Murrin• INO
Approved extension projects in Canada will significantly extend Raglan and Sudbury district mine lives
2016 M+I Mineral Resource: 8 bt(2)
Brownfield optionality across the portfolio
Plus additional resources from the newly acquired HVO assets
Peer Iron Ore average reserve life(3):
16.9 years
Investing for the futureSteven Kalmin - CFO
Zinc balls,
2018-2020 guidance – Industrial capex average of c.$4.5bn per annum
Average c.$0.5bn p.a. uplift over December 2016 guidance of c.$4.0bn p.a. reflects:
• c.$0.4bn cumulative Chad West “short payback” drilling programme(higher price realisations)
• c.$0.2bn p.a. of cost inflation (energy, labour, consumables etc) and FX (weaker US$)
• c.$0.3bn cumulative from new projects targeting strong IRRs (primarily Katanga)
• c.$50M p.a. change in footprint to reflect acquisitions, primarily HVO
Sustaining capex • 2018-2020: average c.$3.3bn• Key capex additions by commodity:
• Coal: HVO acquisition• Oil: Chad West drilling programme
Expansionary capex• 2018-2020: average c.$1.2bn• Key capex highlights/additions by commodity:
• Copper: Collahuasi and Antamina optimisation, Katanga acid plant/cobalt process improvements, Mopani
• Zinc: Zhairem• Nickel: Raglan Phase II, Onaping Depth, Sudbury Process Gas • Coal: United OC
11
2.9 3.4 3.4 3.2
1.11.4 1.3
0.8
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ESustaining Expansionary
Industrial capex ($bn)
Industrial capex by segment ($bn)
3.3 3.8 3.7 3.2
0.71.0 1.0
0.8
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020EMinerals and Metals Energy
4.0
4.8 4.74.0
Katanga update: commissioning on schedule
• Commissioning underway• First feed to Whole Ore Leach plant on 21 November• Extensive operational readiness planning• First cathodes on 11 December 2017
• Production profile – KML Guidance(1)
• 2018: c.150kt Cu, c.11kt Co from Train 1• Commissioning Train 2 forecast Q4 2018• 2019: c.300kt Cu, c.34kt Co from Train 1 and 2• Expected to achieve first quartile cost position at full capacity• New acid plant construction (expected commissioning in 2019) to de-
risk supply chain logistics and reduce costs
• Cobalt debottlenecking program• A metallurgical flowsheet review has revealed the scope for higher
cobalt recoveries through debottlenecking• Average life of mine Co production expected at c.30kt p.a.
• Processing flexibility with additional tailings reserve• Some processing losses from previous production phases have been
identified via the Kamoto Interim Tailings Dam (KITD) Project• Probable Mineral Reserve of 7.9Mt grading at 1.48% Cu & 0.16% Co• KITD will be re-processed over the next few years. Some production
already in 2017.
12
First leach solution from Whole Ore Leach plant
Note: (1) Katanga Mining Limited press release, 11 December 2017, “Katanga Mining announces commissioning of the core of the first train of Whole Ore Leach plant and provides an operational update”.
First commissioning copper cathode
Integrated Nickel Operations: phased investment in a positively trending commodity
• Highlights• INO brownfields extension supporting c.60ktpy nickel
production until 2035• $1.2bn capex over 2018-2024E – c.$170M annual
average• Additional c.$140M cumulative capex over five years to
upgrade the Sudbury smelter• Investment in three components
• Raglan - Phase II: maintaining 1.5Mtpy mill throughput– Mine Project 8H: first ore late 2020, 500ktpy by 2022– Mine Project 14: first ore late 2022, 1Mtpy by 2024• Onaping Depth: 1.2Mtpy ore, first production 2023• Sudbury Process Gas
• >15% IRR on consensus price deck(2)
13
Project Description Production Capex(1)
Raglan –Phase II
Next generation of mines Maintain 40ktpa NiR&R: 16Mt2.65% Ni, 0.76% Cu
c.$450m
OnapingDepth
Sulphide project in Sudbury basin using existing infrastructure
Ni 20ktpa, Cu 9ktpaR&R: 14Mt2.24% Ni, 1.01% Cu
c.$700m
Sudbury Gas Process
To meet latest government emissions regulations
Increase Ni output 1ktpa
c.$140m
Sudbury basin
Note: (1) 2018 to completion (2) Bloomberg commodity consensus prices as of 8 December 2017
Potential future brownfield development
Zhairem (Kazzinc) – brownfield mine development
• Zhairem brownfield development to replace/exceed the Maleevsky and Tishinskymines as they gradually reach end of lives (around 2023)• c.$400M capital cost (2018-2020)• Producing c.160ktpa zinc in concentrate over an initial 14
year mine life• First production expected in 2020
• Significant reserves• One of the largest Zn deposits in the region: contained Zn
and Pb in ore of 2.6Mt and 1Mt respectively.• Additional scope for life extension outside the current
LOM
• Low zinc cash cost supported by open pit mining and competitive operating costs in Kazakhstan• Historical mining has reduced stripping ratio to access ore• Favourable access to infrastructure• Significant mining expertise in the district
• >40% IRR on consensus price deck(1)
14
Zhairem - location
Note: (1) Bloomberg commodity consensus prices as of 8 December 2017
Koniambo update
• Operation of Furnace 1 over 2017 has demonstrated strong on-line time, operational integrity and reliability of the redesign
• Continued site debottlenecking progress:• Improved power plant operations and reliability• Reduced refinery cycle time• Tap hole life exceeding design
• Furnace 2 commissioning underway• Rebuild completed below budget and on time• First metal tap expected this week
• Full capacity (c.50-55ktpa) expected by 2020/21
15
Koniambo metallurgical plant
Oil: Chad West – “short payback” single-rig drilling campaign
• Highlights:• Four phases of drilling based on different fields and
associated reservoir sands• c.$0.4bn cumulative spend 2018-2020E
• Chad volumes to more than offset natural field declines in Equatorial Guinea
• Chad crude oil blend (Doba) seeing significantly improved pricing differentials• Effective Jan 2020, International Maritime Organisation
(IMO) legislation reduces the permitted global sulphur cap for fuel oil used by ships from 3.5% to 0.5%
• Doba (<0.1% sulphur content) is one of a limited set of feeds that can be used as an ideal blending component to create low sulphur fuel oil to meet the spec
• Ship owners already positioning with a step change in differentials being seen in Doba
• c.40% development IRR (from 1/1/2018) at $60/bbl Brent
16
Chad West – oil production and development phasing (forecast kbpd)
-
10
20
30
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Badila A Badila CD Mangara C Mangara E Krim
2018-2020 guidance – Strong production growth in compelling commodities
• Copper: +330kt to 2020 • Katanga: KML guidance: c.150kt 2018, c.300kt 2019• Mopani +90ktpa, phased ramp-up, late 2018 to 2020• Alumbrera closure in 2018
• Cobalt: +36kt to 2020• Higher cobalt production at Katanga and Mutanda• INO and Murrin Murrin production volumes stable
• Zinc/Lead: +195kt/+60kt to 2020• Reflects anticipated restart of Lady Loretta in H1
2018, higher Antamina grades and initial Zhairemproduction in 2020
• Nickel: +27kt to 2020 • Reflects ramp up of Koniambo
Coal: +18Mt to 2020• Addition of HVO (c.7Mtpy) and 47.5% of United OC
(c.2Mt in 2020)• Normalisation of production following strike impacts in Australia
and weather disruption in Colombia • Assumes no disposal of assets
Oil: +2 Mbbl to 2020• Growth from Chad West drilling programme• Includes existing producing fields in Chad West and EG only
17
Commodity GuidanceFY 2017(1) FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020
Copper - Base production kt 1,310 ± 15 1315± 30 1300 ± 30 1340 ± 30Katanga KML(2) Cu guidance kt 150 300 300Copper – Group production kt 1,310 ± 15 1465± 30 1600 ± 30 1640 ± 30
Cobalt - Base production kt c.27 28 ± 3 31 ± 3 31 ± 3Katanga KML(2) Co guidance kt 11 34 32Cobalt – Group production kt c.27 39 ± 3 65 ± 3 63 ± 3
Zinc kt 1,105 ± 15 1,090 ± 30 1,160 ± 30 1,300 ± 30Lead kt 280 ± 5 300 ± 10 320 ± 10 340 ± 10Nickel kt 115 ± 4 132 ± 5 138 ± 5 142 ± 5Ferrochrome kt 1,550 ± 15 1,600 ± 30 1,625 ± 30 1,625 ± 30Coal Mt 124 ± 3 139 ± 5 143 ± 5 142 ± 5Oil – entitlement interest Mbbl 5.1 ± 0.2 4.9 ± 0.2 6.2 ± 0.2 7.1 ± 0.2
2017-2020 key growth:• Copper: +25%• Cobalt: +133%• Zinc/Lead: +18% / +21%• Nickel: +23%• Ferrochrome: +5% • Coal: +15%• Oil: +39%
Note: (1) As per guidance on page 18 of the Third Quarter 2017 production report, 30 October 2017. Oil and cobalt production now added. (2) Katanga Mining Limited press release, 11 December 2017, “Katanga Mining announces commissioning of the core of the first train of Whole Ore Leach plant and provides an operational update”.
269 265 213 266
516436 469(3) 507(3)
2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E
2018 Guidance: strong by-product credits(1) support low all-in unit cash costs
• Modest calculated unit cash cost increases across the portfolio, in line with inflation and FX developments, partially/fully offset by higher by-product credits
• Copper: 86c/lb• Higher by-product credits expected to offset modest
USD cost pressures in 2018• 2019 expected to be lower as Katanga ramps up to
c300kt p.a.
• Coal: $30/t margin• Revenue-linked royalty and higher fuel prices contribute
to modest upward cost pressures• Coal cost-out/margin-up initiative programme on target
to reach c.$300m annual cash savings by end-2018
• Nickel: 266c/lb• Increased unit costs in line with declining PGM and
copper grades in Sudbury• Koniambo operating costs continue to be capitalised
until end 2018
• Zinc: -6c/lb (21c/lb ex Au)• General inflation/FX pressure
18
136 87 86 86(4)
250221
278(3)301(3)
2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E
Copper costs(2) vs. price (c/lb)
40 39 46 48
1618
31 30
2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E
Coal costs(2) and margin ($/t)
Unit cost
41
-5 -9 -6
16 16 21
87 95
130(3) 142(3)
2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E
Zinc costs(2) vs. price (c/lb)
Unit cost
Nickel costs(2) vs. price (c/lb)
Unit cost
Notes: (1) By-product pricing as per Glencore budget assumptions established in September 2017. (2) Disclosed cost is full cost including all cash costs to allow reconciliation and generation of EBITDA. See slide 17 for production volumes underlying 2017 and 2018 full year cost guidance. (3) 2017E cash LME YTD to 11 December 2017, 2018E spot LME as at 11 December 2017. (4) 2018 mine costs exclude commissioning projects –Katanga and Mopani. 2017 guidance unchanged from H1 2017 results presentation
Unit cost
$/t margin
Ex Gold Ex Gold Ex Gold
2018 guidance: Marketing - continued delivery of stable cash flows
2017 Marketing EBIT guidance of c.$2.8bn• Progressively increased throughout the year in line with
supportive market conditions
Forward Marketing EBIT guidance of $2.2-3.2bn• Reverting to long-term guidance range• Continuation of current market conditions would suggest a
2018 performance at similar levels to 2017• Achieving upper end of the guidance range requires a
combination of:• Production/volume growth• Tight / tightening physical market conditions• Deployment of additional working capital vs. recent years• Higher interest rates
Marketing: stable earnings with high cash conversion • Earnings generated from the handling, blending, distribution
and optimisation, in substantial scale, of physical commodities, augmented by arbitrage opportunities
• Highly diversified by commodity / geography• Defensive but with upside in constructive marketing
conditions• Strong earnings base, low cost of capital and low capex
produce consistently high returns on equity
19
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
E
2018
E
Long-term guidance range: $2.2-$3.2bn
Marketing earnings resilience (Indexed 2012=100)
Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
Indexed(2)
FY:$
2.2
-$3.
2bn
FY:$
2.8b
n
Marketing Adjusted EBIT ($M)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Marketing Adjusted EBIT
Indexed(1)
Notes: (1) 2017 marketing adjusted EBIT based on guidance of c.$2.8bn; 2018 marketing adjusted EBIT based on mid point of $2.7bn. (2) 2017 and 2018 Industrial adjusted EBITDA based on Bloomberg analyst consensus Group adjusted EBITDA of $14.53bn and $15.46bn respectively less mid-point of marketing EBIT guidance range ($2.8bn and $2.7bn respectively) less $175M for marketing depreciation.
Strong balance sheet and conservative financial policies• Commitment to strong BBB Investment Grade
• Ensures access to credit markets on attractive terms• Balance sheet fully and conservatively repositioned
• Targeting a maximum 2x Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA through the cycle, augmented by an upper Net debt cap of c.$16bn, being 2017’s opening Net debt position
• Maximum c.$16bn net debt guidance threshold compares to c.$16bn spot EBITDA(1)
• Investments subject to hurdle rates• Industrial: targeting >15% unlevered IRR on conservative
prices• Distributions fueled by strong cash flow
• $1bn fixed (Marketing) + minimum 25% Industrial FCF (trailing year)
• Distribution will be announced at Full Year results• Based on consensus 2017 EBITDAof c.$14.5bn(5) and group
capex guidance of c.$4.1bn, the minimum 2018 distribution will be >$2bn - more than double the 2017 distribution
• Paid out 50/50 split H1/H2• Further opportunity to ‘top-up’ dividends at Half Year Results
20
Maintain strong
BBB/Baa
Equity cash flows
$1bn fixed Marketing distribution
Min. 25% Industrial
distribution
M&A + Other
1
2
34
5
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Notes: (1) Equity cash flows defined as Adjusted EBITDA less tax, interest and other, sustaining and expansionary capex and dividends paid to minorities. (2) Fixed marketing distribution of $1bn represents c.50% of low-end guidance pre-WC Marketing free cash flow, (3) Minimum 25% variable distribution from Industrial free cash flow. (4) M&A + Other includes consideration around portfolio optimisation, asset monetisation, recycling of capital and debt reduction. Reinvestment screened against rigorous criteria. (5) Bloomberg consensus EBITDA for Glencore as at 8 December 2017.
The future needs our commoditiesIvan Glasenberg - CEO
Cobalt briquettes, Nikkelverk, Norway
The world is changing; electric vehicles will be a disruptive force
How much metal is required to realise the Electric Vehicles Initiative target(1) of 30 million electric vehicle sales by 2030?
• We commissioned CRU to model the metal requirements across the supply chain, from generation and grid infrastructure through to storage, charging and vehicles
• In 2030, forecast metal requirements are c.4.1Mt of copper (18% of 2016 supply), c.1.1Mt of nickel (56% of 2016 supply) and 314kt of Cobalt (314% of 2016 supply)
• As early as 2020, forecast EV related metal demand is becoming material, requiring an additional c.390kt of copper, c.85kt ofnickel and 24kt of cobalt
• Transportation/mobility will be transformed – driven by environmental pressures, political mandates, consumer experience and technological progress
22Source: CRU “Mobility and Energy Futures – Perspectives towards 2035”, prepared for Glencore by CRU Consulting – “Green” Scenario. See slide 26 for more detail on modelling framework. (1) The Electric Vehicles Initiative is a multi-government policy forum comprising Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Sweden, UK and USA. http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/News/new-cem-campaign-aims-for-goal-of-30-new-electric-vehicle-sales-by-2030-85068.
Grid storageGeneration and grid infrastructure
Charging infrastructure
Non-ICE vehicles Total
kt 2020 2025 2030Cu 40 170 536
kt 2020 2025 2030Cu 24 86 180Ni 20 71 150Co 7 26 55
kt 2020 2025 2030Cu 23 115 392
kt 2020 2025 2030Cu 304 1068 2972Ni 66 299 985Co 17 80 259
kt 2020 2025 2030Cu 391 1439 4080Ni 86 370 1135Co 24 106 314
Vehicle sales
M 2020 2025 2030Total 91 103 107EV 2.1 10.1 31.7%EV 2% 10% 30%
The future needs our commodities
• The energy and mobility transformation currently underway is forecast to unlock material new sources of demand for enabling underlying commodities including copper, nickel and cobalt• These commodities offer compelling fundamentals when coupled with persistent supply challenges• Higher metal prices will be required to incentivise the next generation of mine projects to feed longer-term demand growth
• We are uniquely positioned with our commodity mix• Strong production growth in copper, nickel and cobalt over the next three years• Our base metal-centric commodity mix will become less dependent on developing market fixed asset investment over time• Commodity differentiation is increasingly important
• Creating value for shareholders• Resilient and proven cash generative business model underpinned by our unique combination of marketing and assets• Conviction to create value through partnerships and organic reinvestment• 2018 illustrative FCF of c.$7.4bn from Adjusted EBITDA of c.$16.2bn at spot/forward prices(1)
23Note: (1) See slide 26 for calculations
Appendix
Cut Nickel cathode, Nikkelverk, Norway
Sustainability and governance
Safety• 8 fatalities from 8 incidents YTD, 5 at focus assets
• 2 in Kazakhstan, 2 in Bolivia, 1 in Zambia, 1 each in South Africa, Italy and Peru
• LTIFR 1.07, down 23% compared to 2016(2)
• TRIFR 3.16, down 22% compared to 2016(2)
Environment• Progress made towards meeting group wide carbon
emission intensity reduction target of at least 5% on 2016 levels by 2020
• Committed to Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD); updates to be provided in our future reporting
• Completed assessment of sites at high risk of water-related issues
Governance• Ms Gill Marcus appointed to the Board as an
Independent Non-Executive Director with effect from 1 January 2018
• Publication of our second payments to governments report
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2.79
2.54
2.07
1.89
1.60
1.34 1.40
1.07
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1
LTIFR(1,2) 2010 to 2017 YTD
62% reduction
Notes: (1) Lost time incidents (LTIs) are recorded when an employee or contractor is unable to work following an incident. LTIFR is the total number of LTIs recorded per million working hours. LTIs do not include Restricted Work Injuries (RWI) and fatalities (fatalities were included up to 2013). Historic data has been restated to exclude fatalities and to reflect data collection improvements. (2) From Jan 2017 the LTIs from Agriculture are not included due to the deconsolidation of this part of the business
Illustrative ‘spot’ annualised cashflows
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Copper(1) Guidance 2018E
Total copper production (kt) 1465.0By-product prod other Depts (kt) -147.0Katanga & Mopani production (kt) -226.0Net relevant production (kt) 1092.0Spot Cu price (c/lb) 301Cost guidance (c/lb) (9) -86Margin (c/lb) 215Margin ($/t) 4739Illustrative EBITDA ($M) 5174Add Katanga/Mopani placeholder ($M) [500]Spot annualised Adj. EBITDA ($M) 5674
Zinc(2) Guidance 2018E
Total Zinc production (kt) 1090.0By-product prod other Depts (kt) -121.785% payability (kt) -145.2Net relevant production (kt) 823.0Spot Zn Price (c/lb) 142Cost guidance (c/lb) (9) 6Margin (c/lb) 148Margin ($/t) 3262Spot annualised Adj. EBITDA ($M) 2685
Nickel(3) Guidance 2018E
Net production excl. Koniambo (kt) 99.0Spot Ni Price (c/lb) 507Cost guidance (c/lb) (9) -266Margin (c/lb) 241Margin ($/t) 5312Spot annualised Adj. EBITDA ($M) 526
Coal(4) Guidance 2018E
Total Coal (Mt) 139.0Ave. Cal18 NEWC fwd price ($/t) 90Portfolio / quality discount ($/t) -12Cost guidance ($/t) -48.0Margin ($/t) 30Spot annualised Adj. EBITDA ($M) 4170
$bnCopper EBITDA(1) 5.7Zinc EBITDA(2) 2.7Nickel EBITDA(3) 0.5Coal EBITDA(4) 4.2Other industrial EBITDA(5) 0.2Marketing EBITDA(6) 2.9Group Adj. EBITDA 16.2Estimated cash taxes, interest + other -3.9Capex(7) -4.9Illustrative spot free cash flow(8) 7.4
Notes: (1) Copper spot annualised adjusted EBITDA calculated basis mid-point of production guidance Slide 18 adjusted for copper produced by other divisions less Katanga and Mopani production. Spot cash LME price as at 11 December 2017. Costs include TC/RCs, freight, royalties and a credit for custom metallurgical EBITDA. (2) Zinc spot annualised adjusted EBITDA calculated basis mid-point of production guidance Slide 18 adjusted for zinc produced by other divisions less adjustment for 85% payability. Spot cash LME price as at 11 December 2017. Cost includes credit for custom metallurgical EBITDA. (3) Nickel spot annualised adjusted EBITDA calculated basis mid-point of production guidance Slide 18. Spot cash LME price as at 11 December 2017. (4) Coal spot annualised adjusted EBITDA calculated basis mid-point of production guidance Slide 18. Estimated average 2018 NEWC forward price of $90/t less $12/t portfolio/quality discount gives a $30/t margin to be applied across overall forecast group production of 139Mt. (5) Other industrial EBITDA includes Ferroalloys, Oil and Aluminium less c.$350M corporate SG&A. (6) Marketing Adjusted EBITDA calculated using the mid point of Marketing Adjusted EBIT guidance on Slide 20 + $175M of Marketing D+A. (7) Industrial capex including JV capex plus marketing capex of c.$135M in 2018E. (8) Excludes working capital changes and distributions. (9) By-product pricing as per Glencore budget assumptions established in September 2017
Notes
Slide 22 – The world is changing, Electric vehicles will be a disruptive forceScenario parameters:• Technology & markets
• Sustained productivity enhancements in renewable and energy storage technologies (including energy density and material efficiency)• A rapid decline in fossil investments supports prices despite weakening overall oil demand• Concerns over access to strategically critical raw materials, including cobalt, faster thrifting and material recycling technologies• Recycling and sustainability models emerge more broadly in the battery space
• Policy• High carbon prices imposed in most major fuels, end-uses and markets by the end of the period• Sustained political support for renewables and EV subsidies increase attractiveness of renewables and EV investments• Ever stricter emissions standards are imposed on ICEs and thermal power plants• Mass scrappage schemes and congestion related policies accelerate the decline of ICEs• Public investment and aggressive policy leadership ensures rapid build out of mass charging infrastructure
• Behavioural• Rising public pressures for improved environmental conditions in developing countries• Understanding of EV ownership (and economics) improves as consumers and retailers become more aware of the benefits and incentives• Some consumers remain somewhat put off by extended charging times (and limitations on driving ranges) of pure EVs• Partial adoption of demand-side management measures aimed to encourage consumer to charge EVs at non-peak times
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