ions seminar 2014 - session 3 - climate change and risk for sea ports
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Speaker: Professor Jean Palutikof, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith UniversityTRANSCRIPT
Climate change and sea-level rise:seaports, security and stresses
Jean Palutikof
National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
(with thanks to RMIT University – Jane Mullett and Darryn McEvoy for information on their Seaports project)
NCCARF: who we are, what we do
• Set up by the Federal Government in 2008 to provide decision makers with the knowledge and capacity to effectively respond to climate change impacts
• Based at Griffith University, Gold Coast• About to embark on a second phase, with
an emphasis on working with local governments in the coastal zone
What is the IPCC?• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change• Set up by the UN to provide climate
information to underpin negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions reduction
• Assesses the science on a cycle of around 5-6 yrs – Fifth Assessment currently being completed
• An elaborate process leads to government ‘accepting’ scientific assessments
Seaports, security and stresses
Five messages:
First human-induced climate change
Second sea levels – what’s happening
Third impacts in Australia: seaports
Fourth impacts overseas: security
Fifth: climate change and other stresses
1. The climate is changing and will continue to change
Climatic Research Unit, UEA
Atmospheric warming is almost everywhere we have records, greatest over continents
Has warming stopped since 1998?• World Ocean Heat Content 1955-2010 [Levitus, 2013]
The ocean accounts for ~90% of heat absorbed by the Earth 1955-2012 (1022 J) Levitus, 2013
Climate change will continue into the future
2. Global sea level is rising and will continue to rise
The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m (IPCC WGI AR5)
Future sea-level riseGlobal mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century, and
at a faster rate than observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice
sheets.
Figure takes into account thermal expansion, glacier and ice sheet melting (Greenland & Antarctica)IPCC WGI AR5
Regional sea-level change by end 21st century
Causes: Changes in wind and air pressure Air-sea heat and freshwater fluxesOcean currentsMovements of the land and sea floorChanges in gravity
Other oceanic effects• Ocean acidification
– Affects calcification amongst shell-forming species
• Ocean warming• Wind-wave conditions in the open ocean• Storm surge and flood in the coastal zone
– Rule of thumb: • 0.1m rise in sea level increases the frequency of flooding
by approximately a factor of 3• The effect is multiplicative• Increase of 0.5m will increase the frequency of flooding by
a factor of approximately 300; 1:100 year event will occur several times a yearACE CRC (2012) Report Card: Sea-Level Rise 2012 p19
www.ipcc.ch Chapter 13 WGI
3. Impacts in Australia will be mainly from extreme events
A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events. IPCC SREX 2012• Heatwaves –number, duration, intensity will increase -
impacts on outdoor work conditions (high confidence) • Drought in southern Australia• Increased flood events• Possibility that cyclone tracks will move further south
2009 heatwave SE Australia Port of Melbourne tarmac melted2010 - 2011 floods Queensland
Gladstone Ports coal supply interrupted Port of Brisbane shut
2011 flash flooding NSW Port Botany operations interrupted
Observed impacts on seaports:
Enhancing the resilience of seaports to a changing climate project
RMIT University©2013 16www.nccarf.edu.au
RMIT University©2013
Gladstone• Bulk
- Coal- Liquids- Minerals
Sydney• Containers• Liquids• Mixed trade
Port Kembla• Mixed
-Agriculture- Liquids-Containers- Vehicles (RO/RO)
17
Port case studies
Integrated climate risk assessmenthybrid vulnerability / risk management approach
Ports: key messages• Ports need to work in partnership with other logistics providers and
local/state/national governments • Government regulation is necessary to support the process
(public/private mix of actors)• Communication of the climate science is still an issue, apart from
sea level rise which is well understood• Collection and analysis of data is important• There are many current opportunities to build in incremental
adaptation, but transformational adaptation is still a bridge too far.• Low probability-high impact climate risks need to be investigated
further• Just-in-time management leaves no room to move – pressure on
productivity gains at a time when there is an increase in dangerous weather situations
• Short term versus the long term (room to move)• Best practice builds adaptive capacity
19Pasha Bulker cargo ship off Newcastle
Source: The Age, 9/6/07Photo: Darren Pateman
4. The main impacts for Australia will come from what happens overseas
• Australia is a rich, well-educated democratic society with high adaptive capacity
• There are three areas where what happens elsewhere will have impacts– Trade – Security– Aid
Trade: Global food trade and food
prices are impacted by climate • Why does it matter for Australia?
– Three-quarters of Australia’s agricultural production is exported in non-drought years
– Australia may benefit if other food producers experience adverse climate change
– Conversely, it may be faced by rising global prices and diminishing national supply
– Security implications – inflation in food prices triggered +60 riots worldwide 2007-9
Global wheat prices [www.indexmundi.cpm]
Close relationship with El Niño eventsOften a forecast of an El Niño is sufficient to cause prices to rise
Good news: nations have learned to maintain adequate stocks of grain, acting as a damper on prices – adaptation can and does occur
1996: Drought in US Mid-West, pessimistic forecasts, high global demand
2008: Widespread global drought, hike in oil prices
2010: Drought in Russia and ban on exports
Security and migration• Large-scale migration now
a permanent feature in developing nations:– rural to urban, – to neighbouring countries, – into Europe, North America
and Australasia
• Climate change and SLR can exacerbate this trend– Small low-lying islands– Persistent extremes:
drought, flood
• Does climate change have the potential to cause conflict and war?
Sub-Saharan Africa remittances
5. At present, the greatest risks are from climate change acting together with, or exacerbating, other stresses
• War• Poor and corrupt governments and institutions• Societies weakened by poverty, ill-health and
out-migration
Without these stresses, societies have the capacity and will to manage climate change
An exception is small low-lying island states where sea-level rise exceeds capacity to adapt. More exceptions will emerge.
In conclusion – the five messages
1. The climate is changing and will continue to change
2. Global sea level is rising and will continue to rise
3. Seaports: Impacts in Australia will be mainly from extreme events
4. Security: The main impacts for Australia will come from what happens overseas
5. Stresses: At present, the greatest risks are from climate change acting together with, or exacerbating, other stresses