ipsos brexit consequences poll july 2016 · do you think that brexit was the right decision or the...

Brexit consequences poll | July 2016 | FINAL | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Thursday 4 August 2016

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and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos Brexit consequences poll

July 2016

2Brexit consequences poll | July 2016 | FINAL | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Thursday 4 August 2016

Contents

Section 1: Reactions to the result

Section 2: Impact of Brexit on the European Union

Section 3: Impact of Brexit on the UK

Section 4: Future relationship between European Union and UK

Brexit consequences poll | July 2016 | FINAL | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Thursday 4 August 2016 3

Reactions to the

result


Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain,

Hungary, India, Japan, Italy, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, July 2016

Most in EU countries think Britain was wrong to leave – outside

the EU people are less certain

European Union

countries

Countries outside of

the European Union

58%

55%

40%

35%

THINK BREXIT VOTE WAS

WRONG DECISION FOR BRITAIN

THINK BREXIT VOTE WAS

WRONG DECISION FOR THE

EUROPEAN UNION

50% 26%THINK BREXIT VOTE WAS

WRONG DECISION FOR OWN

COUNTRY

Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision

for…Britain/ the European Union/ own country?



Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary,

India, Japan, Italy, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, July 2016

69%

63%

63%

61%

51%

49%

49%

47%

43%

44%

41%

40%

40%

39%

29%

10%

14%

20%

20%

21%

38%

25%

24%

27%

38%

17%

11%

31%

23%

37%

29%

54%

17%

16%

17%

18%

11%

26%

27%

27%

20%

40%

47%

29%

37%

24%

42%

36%

Spain

Germany

Belgium

Sweden

Great Britain

Poland

Hungary

France

Italy

Canada

Japan

South Africa

Australia

India

US

Russia

WRONG DECISION

RIGHT DECISION

DON'T KNOW

Spanish most likely to think Brexit wrong for Britain

European Union countries

Countries outside of the European Union

Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for Britain?



Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Japan,

Italy, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, July 2016

68%

65%

64%

63%

61%

56%

55%

51%

41%

50%

47%

43%

43%

34%

33%

30%

9%

10%

15%

8%

19%

23%

22%

22%

25%

18%

9%

13%

31%

20%

9%

22%

23%

25%

22%

29%

20%

21%

24%

27%

34%

32%

44%

44%

26%

46%

58%

48%

Sweden

Poland

Spain

Hungary

Great Britain

Germany

Belgium

Italy

France

South Africa

Canada

Australia

India

US

Japan

Russia

WRONG DECISION

RIGHT DECISION

DON'T KNOW

Swedes most worried about impact on European Union



Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for the European Union?



Base: 6,012 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, July 2016

40

303127

34

283026 2726

1922

15171516

33

44

5050515555

58

FranceItalyBelgiumGermanyHungarySpainSwedenPoland

Poles, Swedes and Spanish most worried about impact

of decision for their own country

% WRONG DECISION

% RIGHT DECISION

% DON’T KNOW

Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for your own country?



13%

39%

48%

14%

24%62%

European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union

HAPPY

SAD

NEITHER

4 in 10 in EU countries sad to see UK leave – but more

unaffected

How does the UK's decision to leave the European Union make you feel, if at all –

happy, sad or neither?

Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Japan, Italy, Poland,

Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, July 2016



Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland,

Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

49%

48%

41%

40%

40%

38%

36%

34%

25%

32%

31%

30%

27%

23%

20%

6%

29%

11%

10%

8%

8%

9%

19%

9%

14%

24%

11%

4%

6%

12%

19%

22%

23%

41%

49%

52%

53%

53%

45%

57%

60%

44%

58%

66%

66%

65%

61%

72%

Great Britain

Sweden

Belgium

Hungary

Spain

Poland

Italy

Germany

France

India

South Africa

Japan

Canada

Australia

US

Russia

SAD

HAPPY

NEITHER

Brexit and feelings of happiness and sadness



How does the UK's decision to leave the European Union make you feel, if at all -

Happy, sad or neither?



Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy,

Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

15%

46%

39%

17%

34%

48%

European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union

MORE HOPEFUL ABOUT

THE FUTURE

MORE WORIED ABOUT

THE FUTURE

NEITHER

Brexit has made 46% in EU countries more worried for future


More worried about the future, more hopeful about the future or neither?





53%

53%

51%

49%

46%

45%

42%

42%

31%

51%

47%

36%

35%

32%

31%

10%

13%

32%

6%

14%

10%

23%

9%

13%

13%

14%

6%

8%

33%

14%

19%

29%

34%

15%

42%

37%

44%

32%

49%

45%

56%

36%

47%

56%

32%

54%

50%

61%

Sweden

Great Britain

Hungary

Poland

Belgium

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

South Africa

Japan

Canada

India

Australia

US

Russia

MORE WORRIED ABOUT

THE FUTURE

MORE HOPEFUL ABOUT

THE FUTURE

NEITHER

In EU, Swedes most worried, French the least




More worried about the future, more hopeful about the future or neither?


Impact of Brexit on

the European Union



Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Japan, Italy, Poland,

Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, July 2016

Most think Brexit will be bad for EU economy

European Union

countriesCountries outside of

the European Union

47%

53%

45%

52%THINK THAT BREXIT WILL BE

SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR

THE EUROPEAN UNION'S ECONOMY

THINK THAT BREXIT WILL BE


THE EUROPEAN UNION'S INFLUENCE

ON THE WORLD STAGE

54% 47%

THINK BREXIT VOTE WILL MAKE EU

WEAKER

Now that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, do you think it will have a positive or negative impact, or

make no difference, on…the EU’s economy / influence on the world stage? & Following on from the UK's vote to

leave the European Union, do you think the EU will be weaker/ stronger


72

58 56 55 53 51 48 45

35

69

55 5551 49

4538

66

52 5145 45 45 42 41

34

67

4549

41 42 3935




Hungarians and Japanese most likely to think EU will be

negatively affected – French the leastNow that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, do you think it will have a positive or

negative impact, or make no difference, on…the EU’s economy / influence on the world stage?

European Union countriesCountries outside of the

European Union

% THINK THAT BREXIT WILL BE


THE EUROPEAN UNION'S ECONOMY

% THINK THAT BREXIT WILL BE SOMEWHAT

TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE EUROPEAN

UNION’S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE





64%

64%

62%

62%

55%

53%

46%

43%

37%

54%

52%

47%

47%

44%

43%

42%

5%

10%

6%

5%

11%

13%

13%

17%

15%

5%

13%

12%

5%

7%

33%

4%

31%

26%

31%

32%

34%

34%

41%

40%

48%

41%

35%

41%

48%

49%

24%

53%

Great Britain

Poland

Sweden

Hungary

Italy

Spain

Belgium

Germany

France

Russia

South Africa

US

Canada

Australia

India

Japan

WEAKER

STRONGER

DON'T KNOW

Big differences on whether Brexit will weaken the EU



Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the

European Union will be stronger or weaker?


8%

16%

9%

12%

15%

9%

9%

8%

11%

15%

9%

9%

5%

5%

34%

35%

33%

39%

40%

39%

42%

37%

32%

33%

40%

35%

28%

30%

42%

51%

42%

50%

55%

49%

51%

45%

43%

48%

49%

44%

34%

35%


41% in EU countries think Brexit will lead to ‘domino’ effect – down from 48%

pre-vote (but up in GB)

14%

13%

10%

10%

11%

8%

7%

7%

6%

18%

15%

12%

8%

6%

6%

3%

46%

30%

31%

30%

29%

30%

30%

29%

30%

31%

33%

28%

32%

30%

30%

22%

60%

43%

42%

40%

39%

38%

37%

37%

36%

48%

48%

40%

40%

36%

36%

26%

Great Britain

Italy

France

Germany

Hungary

Belgium

Sweden

Poland

Spain

Russia

India

US

South Africa

Australia

Canada

Japan

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

Now Britain has left the European Union/ If Britain left the European Union…other countries will follow

Eu

rop

ea

n U

nio

n

cou

ntr

ies

Co

un

trie

s o

uts

ide o

f

Eu

rop

ea

n U

nio

n

STRONGLY AGREE

TEND TO AGREE

Base July 2016: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia,

South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016 & Base April 2016: 11,030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France,

Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy,, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

Post-Brexit vote Pre-Brexit vote

NA

NA



What will the future European Union look like?

Do you think the European Union in 2020 will...?

16%29%

6%

11%21%

39% 40%

...have a single European

government

...resemble today’s European

Union, with the same balance

of powers between the EU and

individual countries

...have disappeared altogether

Base April 2016: 7,022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden/

Base July 2016: 7,014 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden

RESULTS BEFORE THE REFERENDUM (APRIL 2016)

RESULTS AFTER THE REFERENDUM (JULY 2016)

12%

33%6%

10%

18%

40% 42%

+ ...be more integrated, with

more powers for the European

Union compared to individual

countries

+ ...be less integrated, with

fewer powers for the European

Union compared to individual

countries

Be more integrated Resemble today’s EU Be less integrated



56%

50%

48%

45%

41%

38%

38%

33%

31%

26%

33%

33%

35%

40%

48%

45%

49%

49%

17%

17%

18%

20%

19%

14%

17%

18%

20%

Hungary

Great

Britain

Poland

Italy

France

Sweden

Germany

Belgium

Spain

BE LESS INTEGRATED

RESEMBLE TODAY’S EU

BE MORE INTEGRATED

Base April 2016: 7,022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden/

Base July 2016: 7,014 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden

Hungarians most likely to think EU will be less integrated in 2020, and

since the Brexit vote Britons more likely to think EU will be less integrated

Do you think the European Union in 2020 will...?

Post-Brexit vote

51%

37%

47%

41%

41%

41%

33%

36%

32%

27%

39%

33%

34%

42%

38%

45%

47%

46%

22%

24%

21%

25%

18%

21%

22%

17%

22%

Pre-Brexit vote


Impact of Brexit

on the UK





Most in EU countries think that Brexit will harm UK – but

outside the EU many do not know

European Union

countries

Countries outside of the

European Union

58% 46%

THINK THAT BREXIT WILL BE SOMEWHAT TO

VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S ECONOMY

52% 40%THINK THAT BREXIT WILL BE SOMEWHAT TO

VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S INFLUENCE ON

THE WORLD STAGE

53% 36%

THINK THAT BREXIT WILL MAKE BRITAIN WEAKER

Now that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, do you think it will have a positive or negative impact,

or make no difference, on…the UK’s economy / influence on the world stage? & Following on from the UK's vote

to leave the European Union, do you think the UK will be weaker/ stronger


70 6863 63 63

5750 49

43

68

5752 52

3933

21

6056 58 57 56

49 5042 40

63

46 4639

31 33

20




Germans, Japanese and Belgians most likely to think

Britain’s economy will be harmed by BrexitNow that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, do you think it will have a positive or

negative impact, or make no difference, on…Britain’s economy/ influence on the world stage?

European Union countries Countries outside of the

European Union

% THINK THAT BREXIT WILL BE


THE BRITISH ECONOMY

% THINK THAT BREXIT WILL BE SOMEWHAT

TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN’S INFLUENCE

ON THE WORLD STAGE





64%

64%

60%

57%

50%

49%

47%

44%

41%

44%

43%

40%

38%

36%

32%

17%

13%

14%

14%

21%

25%

35%

25%

21%

34%

15%

10%

30%

23%

44%

33%

47%

23%

22%

26%

23%

25%

16%

27%

35%

25%

41%

47%

30%

39%

20%

36%

37%

Germany

Spain

Belgium

Sweden

Poland

Great Britain

Hungary

France

Italy

Canada

Japan

South Africa

Australia

India

US

Russia

WEAKER

STRONGER

DON'T KNOW

Germans and Spanish most likely to think Brexit will weaken

Britain – but Indians and Russians think GB will be stronger out



Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the UK

will be stronger or weaker?


Future of Britain’s

relationship with

Europe





AGREE

NEITHER AGREE

NOR DISAGREE

DISAGREE

EU countries split on severity of deal Britain should get – but

outside EU more think it should be favourableTo what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - The European Union should offer

favourable/ unfavourable terms to Britain in negotiations about their future relationship to reduce the negative

impact on the economy overall/in order to discourage other countries from leave the European Union

The European Union should offer favourable terms to Britain

30%

39%

42%

47%

28%

14%

EU countries

Non-EU countries

The European Union should offer unfavourable terms to Britain

27%

22%

44%

50%

29%

28%

EU countries

Non-EU countries


56

3631

28 26 26 2520 19

52 51

44 4337

33

141623 20

23

30 28 27

3439

25

40

21 1916 16

19


Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary,

India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - The European Union should offer

favourable/ unfavourable terms to Britain in negotiations about their future relationship to reduce the negative

impact on the economy overall/in order to discourage other countries from leave the European Union

European Union countries Countries outside of the

European Union

% THINK THAT EU SHOULD OFFER

FAVOURABLE TERMS TO BRITAIN

% THINK THAT EU SHOULD OFFER

UNFAVOURABLE TERMS TO BRITAIN

Britons think they should get a favourable deal – but French and

Belgians think priority is to stop others from leaving



Base: 11,523 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South

Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

8%

17%

26%

17%

66%

67%

EU countries (excl. UK)

Non-EU countries

One in four in EU countries say less likely to visit the UK or buy

British – but most say it will make no difference

Visit the UK on holidays

After the UK's vote to leave the EU, are you more likely or less likely to do each of the following,

or does it make no difference?

10%

18%

16%

12%

74%

70%


Non-EU countries

Welcome British tourists to your country

7%

14%

27%

17%

66%

70%


Non-EU countries

Buy British goods or services

7%

14%

17%

13%

77%

73%


Non-EU countries

Consume British culture, such as TV, films, books or music

MORE LIKELY

LESS LIKELY

MAKE NO DIFFERENCE


9%

11%

12%

15%

19%

24%

26%

15%

17%

20%

21%

33%

34%

34%

37%

Russia

Australia

Canada

US

South Africa

India

Japan

Sweden

Belgium

Hungary

France

Spain

Germany

Poland

Italy


Base: 11,523 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan,

Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

Italians and Spanish most likely to be put off buying

BritishAfter the UK's vote to leave the EU, are you more likely or less likely to do each of the following, or

does it make no difference?

Eu

rop

ea

n U

nio

n

cou

ntr

ies

Co

un

trie

s o

uts

ide

of

the E

U

Are less likely to visit the UK

on holidays

9%

9%

11%

17%

17%

21%

33%

17%

19%

19%

20%

28%

33%

37%

43%

Canada

Russia

Australia

US

South Africa

Japan

India

Hungary

Belgium

Sweden

France

Poland

Germany

Spain

Italy

Are less likely to buy British

goods or services


Methodology• These are the findings of the “Brexit consequences” survey. In total 12,525 interviews were conducted between 24 June and 8 July

2016 among adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other countries.

• The survey was conducted in 16 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein for

this survey are Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa,

Spain, Sweden, and the United States of America. The nine European Union countries represent approximately three-quarters of

the EU’s population and 80% of its GDP.

• Approximately 1,000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of

Belgium, Hungary, India, Poland, Russia, South Africa and Sweden, where the sample was approximately 500+. The precision of

Ipsos online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500

accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on Ipsos’ use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.

• In countries where internet penetration is approximately 60% or higher the data output reflects the general population. Of the 16

countries surveyed online, 14 yield results that are balanced to reflect the general population: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France,

Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, and the United States of America. The two remaining

countries surveyed - India and South Africa - have lower levels of internet connectivity (18% and 49%, respectively) and therefore

reflect online populations that tend to be more urban and have higher education/income than the general population.

• Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or

not stated responses.

• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

www.ipsos-mori.com/


Jean-Michel Lebrun

Research Director, Ipsos

+32 (0) 2 642 49 10

[email protected]

For more information

Gideon Skinner

Research Director, Ipsos MORI UK

+44 (0)20 7347 3260

[email protected]

Daan Bijwaard

Research Executive, Ipsos

+32 (0) 2 642 49 37

[email protected]

Clifford Young

President, US Public Affairs

+1.202.420.2016

[email protected]

Julia Clark

Senior Vice President, Public Affairs

+1.312.526.4919

[email protected]

ipsos brexit consequences poll july 2016 · do you think that brexit was the right decision or the...

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