ipsos mori political monitor: april 2014

POLITICAL MONITOR

April 2014

Contacts:

[email protected]

[email protected]

020 7347 3000

Voting Intentions

3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those

“certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -5

All giving a voting intention: 80%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

32%

37%

9%

14%

8%

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014, all certain to vote = 585

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote: 55%

Conservative lead = -6

31%

37%

9%

15%

8%

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Oct-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Apr-0

4

Ju

l-04

Oct-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Apr-0

5

Ju

l-05

Oct-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Apr-0

6

Ju

l-06

Oct-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Apr-0

7

Ju

l-07

Oct-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Apr-0

8

Ju

l-08

Oct-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Apr-0

9

Ju

l-09

Oct-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Apr-1

0

Ju

l-10

Oct-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Apr-1

1

Ju

l-11

Oct-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Apr-1

2

Ju

l-12

Oct-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Apr-1

3

Ju

l-13

Oct-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Apr-1

4

37%

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

9%

31%

2010 General Election

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions September ‘03 – April ‘14

(all certain to vote)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

15%

Satisfaction with the Coalition

and Party Leaders

6

56

63

56

36

58

38

29

30

40

33

Net satisfaction

Swing from March 2014

-18 +0.5

-34 -1.5

-26 -2.5

+4 +7

-25 +0.5

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %

“dissatisfied”

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister

/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied

% Dissatisfied

Nigel Farage


7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Oct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-0

8F

eb

-08

Ma

r-08

Ap

r-08

May-0

8Ju

n-0

8Ju

l-08

Au

g-0

8S

ep

-08

Oct-0

8N

ov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-0

9F

eb

-09

Mar-0

9A

pr-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-0

9Ju

l-09

Au

g-0

9S

ep

-09

Oct-0

9N

ov-0

9D

ec-0

9Ja

n-1

0F

eb

-10

Ma

r-10

Ap

r-10

Ma

y-1

0Ju

n-1

0Ju

l-10

Au

g-1

0S

ep

-10

Oct-1

0N

ov-1

0D

ec-1

0Jan-1

1F

eb

-11

Ma

r-11

Ap

r-11

Ma

y-1

1Jun-1

1Ju

l-11

Au

g-1

1S

ep

-11

Oct-1

1N

ov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-1

2F

eb

-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

Ma

y-1

2Ju

n-1

2Ju

l-12

Au

g-1

2S

ep-1

2O

ct-1

2N

ov-1

2D

ec-1

2Ja

n-1

3F

eb-1

3M

ar-1

3A

pr-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3S

ep

-13

Oct-1

3N

ov-1

3D

ec-1

3Ja

n-1

4F

eb

-14

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

29%

% s

ati

sfi

ed

Cameron

Clegg

Campbell

Clegg elected (Jan 08)

General Election

38%

Miliband 30%

Brown

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders September ‘07 – April ‘14

Farage 40%

8

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIR MAJOR

BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

9


David Cameron (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Satisfied

Dissatisfied

April 2006 – April 2014 April 2014

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -18

38%

56%

6%

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 230 Conservative supporters 18+, 5th -7th April 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron

(satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?

80%

18%

3% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +62 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone


11


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders

(1994 – 2014)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)


Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?


Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – April 2014 April 2014


Dissatisfied

30%

56%

14%

Net = -26

13

53% 38%

9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 312 Labour supporters 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014

Ed Miliband

(satisfaction among Labour supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

April 2014

Net = +15


Dissatisfied


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – April 2014

14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?


Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Dissatisfied

Satisfied


29%

63%

9%


Dissatisfied

Net = -34

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 77 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

April 2014

60%

37%

3% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +23

Nick Clegg

(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?

April 2008 – April 2014



16

40%

36%

24%

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK

Independence Party?


Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only

All


Dissatisfied

Net = +4

March 2013 – April 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

17

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK

Independence Party?

Nigel Farage

(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)

Base: 120 UKIP supporters, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only

93%

3% 4%

UKIP supporters

Satisfied

Don’t know Dissatisfied

Net = +90

March 2013 – April 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

The economy

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-0

7O

ct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Ju

l-1

0O

ct-

10

Ja

n-1

1A

pr-

11

Ju

l-1

1O

ct-

11

Ja

n-1

2A

pr-

12

Ju

l-1

2O

ct-

12

Ja

n-1

3A

pr-

13

Ju

l-1

3O

ct-

13

Ja

n-1

4A

pr-

14

Economic Optimism Index

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?



Improve

Stay the same Get worse Improve

Don’t know

Get worse

Stay the same

April 2014

EOI = +25

49%

25%

24%

2%

20

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ju

l-9

7O

ct-

97

Ja

n-9

8A

pr-

98

Ju

l-9

8O

ct-

98

Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Ju

l-9

9O

ct-

99

Ja

n-0

0A

pr-

00

Ju

l-0

0O

ct-

00

Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Ju

l-0

1O

ct-

01

Ja

n-0

2A

pr-

02

Ju

l-0

2O

ct-

02

Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Ju

l-0

3O

ct-

03

Ja

n-0

4A

pr-

04

Ju

l-0

4O

ct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-0

7O

ct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Ju

l-1

0O

ct-

10

Ja

n-1

1A

pr-

11

Ju

l-1

1O

ct-

11

Ja

n-1

2A

pr-

12

Ju

l-1

2O

ct-

12

Ja

n-1

3A

pr-

13

Ju

l-1

3O

ct-

13

Ja

n-1

4A

pr-

14

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+17

-46

-56 -48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

Ind

ex

(g

et

be

tte

r m

inu

s g

et

wo

rse)

-64


+25

Post-Budget 2014 perceptions

22 The Budget – a good thing for you personally?

From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing...?


25%

60%

16%


Don’t know Good thing

Bad thing

...for me personally (April 2012)

43%

35%

22%

...for me personally (April 2014)


Bad thing

23

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014

The Budget – a good thing for you personally?

From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing for

you personally?

% saying ‘good thing’

34%

68%

26%

41%

36%

42%

32%

42%

49%

40%

36%

27%

36% 35%

11%

16% 15%

25%

20%

29%

33% 36%

26%

42% 45%

24%

34%

21%

26% 25%

43%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne

24

33%

53%

14%

The Budget – a good thing for the country?

From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing...?



Bad thing

...for the country (April 2012)

48%

33%

19%

...for the country (April 2014)


Bad thing

25


The Budget – a good thing for the country?

From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing for

the country?

% saying ‘good thing’

47%

69%

39%

47% 48% 46%

35% 37%

45%

40% 42%

28%

32% 34%

23%

29%

20% 23%

27%

56% 57%

46% 48%

52%

65%

37%

45%

25%

54%

33%

48%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Apr-

10

Ju

l-1

0

Oct-

10

Ja

n-1

1

Apr-

11

Ju

l-1

1

Oct-

11

Ja

n-1

2

Apr-

12

Ju

l-1

2

Oct-

12

Ja

n-1

3

Apr-

13

Ju

l-1

3

Oct-

13

Ja

n-1

4

Apr-

14

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Satisfaction with George Osborne

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way George Osborne is doing his job as Chancellor of the

Exchequer?


Dissatisfied

April 2014

Net = +3

June 2010 – April 2014


47%

44%

9%

BB

BB AAS

AB BB

AB

BB BB AAS

AB BB

AB

AAS= After Autumn Statement

BB= Before Budget

AB= After Budget

27


Satisfaction with the chancellor- long term trend

% saying ‘satisfied’

66%

44%

67%

52%

45% 45%

34%

39%

44% 42%

37% 39%

36% 37%

18%

31%

17%

24%

28%

38%

34%

52%

44%

56%

45%

42%

48%

52%

34%

41%

55% 57%

48% 46%

49% 47%

42%

32%

28%

36%

40%

36% 38%

28% 27%

47%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ma

r-76

Ma

r-77

Ap

r-7

8

Jul-

80

Ma

r-82

Jun

-83

Ma

r-85

Ma

r-86

Ma

r-87

Ma

r-88

Mar-

89

Ma

r-90

Ma

r-91

Ma

r-92

Ma

r-93

De

c-9

3

De

c-9

4

No

v-9

5

De

c-9

5

No

v-9

6

De

c-9

6

Jul-

97

Fe

b-9

8

Ma

r-98

Ma

r-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ma

r-00

Jul-

00

Se

p-0

0

No

v-0

0

Ma

r-01

Ap

r-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

Ma

r-04

No

v-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

De

c-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ma

r-08

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Ma

r-11

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-1

4

Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

28

51%

55%

31%

25%

5%

7%

6%

10%

4%

2%

3%

2%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know

Is there a ‘cost of living crisis’?

Some people believe/ Ed Miliband has said that despite recent growth in the UK economy, the cost of living has continued to rise for many

people, creating a ‘cost of living crisis’. To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree that there is currently a ‘cost of living crisis’ in the UK?

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: SPLIT SAMPLE, 489 & 513 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014

Some people believe that…

Ed Miliband has said that…

12% 80%

10% 82%

Best leader and best party

30 Which leader would make the most capable PM?

Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister…?

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014.

9%

5%

20%

34% Cameron

Miliband

Clegg

Farage

31 Which leader would make the most capable PM?

Trend


N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. Farage added in 2014). Take caution when comparing trends.

Cameron Miliband

(Brown in Feb 2010

& 2009)

Clegg Farage

April 2014 34% 20% 5% 9%

April 2011 45% 25% 7% N/A

Sept 2010 49% 19% 10% N/A

Feb 2010 38% 29% 12% N/A

Sept 2009 41% 24% 16% N/A

Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister…?

32 Leader image

Which leader do you think…

Miliband Cameron Clegg Farage


… best understands

the problems facing

Britain?

… would be best in

a crisis?

… is most out of

touch with ordinary

people?

15%

14%

15%

40%

9%

5%

16%

43%

17%

9%

25%

23%

33


N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. Farage added in 2013/14). Take caution when comparing trends.

Cameron

Miliband

(Brown in

2009)

Clegg Farage

… best understands

the problems facing

Britain

April 2014 23% 25% 9% 17%

May 2013 27% 23% 8% 16%

Sept 2009 33% 33% 15% N/A

… would be best in a

crisis?

April 2014 43% 16% 5% 9%

Sept 2009 37% 34% 9% N/A

… is most out of

touch with ordinary

people?

April 2014 40% 15% 14% 15%

May 2013 48% 15% 10% 10%

Sept 2009 28% 46% 10% N/A

Which leader do you think…

Leader image- trend

34 Party image

And which political party do you think…

… would be best at

looking after the

interests of people

like you?

… is most clear and

united about what its

policies should be? 25%

6%

18%

23%

12%

8%

31%

29%

12%

8%

27%

29%


Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats UKIP

… has the best

policies for the

country as a whole?

35


N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. UKIP added in 2014). Take caution when comparing trends.

Conservatives Labour Liberal

Democrats UKIP

… has the best

policies for the

country as a whole

April 2014 29% 27% 8% 16%

Feb 2010 29% 27% 16% N/A

… would be best at

looking after the

interests of people

like you?

April 2014 29% 31% 8% 12%

Sept 2009 30% 26% 17% N/A

… is most clear

about what its

policies should be?

April 2014 23% 18% 6% 25%

Sept 2009 30% 14% 17% N/A

Party image- trend

And which political party do you think…

ipsos mori political monitor: april 2014

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