ipsos mori political monitor: december 2013

POLITICAL MONITOR December 2013

Contacts: [email protected] [email protected]@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000

Voting Intentions

3Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -7

All giving a voting intention: 81%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

32%

39%

10%

8%11%

Base 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9h December 2013, all certain to vote = 578

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote: 54%

Conservative lead = -4

33%

37%

9%

10%

11%

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Sep-03

Dec-03

Mar-04

Jun-04S

ep-04D

ec-04M

ar-05Jun-05S

ep-05D

ec-05M

ar-06Jun-06S

ep-06D

ec-06M

ar-07Jun-07S

ep-07D

ec-07M

ar-08Jun-08S

ep-08D

ec-08M

ar-09Jun-09S

ep-09D

ec-09M

ar-10Jun-10S

ep-10D

ec-10M

ar-11Jun-11S

ep-11D

ec-11M

ar-12Jun-12S

ep-12D

ec-12M

ar-13Jun-13S

ep-13D

ec-13

37%

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

9%

33%

2010 General Election

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions September ‘03 – December ‘13(all certain to vote)How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

10%

Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders

6

52

57

54

38

58

39

28

29

33

32

Net satisfaction

Swing from November

2013

-13 +4

-29 +7

-25 -1

-5 +4

-25 +3

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th - 9th December 2013. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

Satisfaction with leaders and the GovernmentHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?


David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied% Dissatisfied

Nigel Farage

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08Feb-08M

ar-08A

pr-08M

ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A

ug-08S

ep-08O

ct-08N

ov-08D

ec-08Jan-09Feb-09M

ar-09A

pr-09M

ay-09Jun-09Jul-09A

ug-09S

ep-09O

ct-09N

ov-09D

ec-09Jan-10Feb-10M

ar-10A

pr-10M

ay-10Jun-10Jul-10A

ug-10S

ep-10O

ct-10N

ov-10D

ec-10Jan-11Feb-11M

ar-11A

pr-11M

ay-11Jun-11Jul-11A

ug-11S

ep-11O

ct-11N

ov-11D

ec-11Jan-12Feb-12M

ar-12A

pr-12M

ay-12Jun-12Jul-12A

ug-12S

ep-12O

ct-12N

ov-12D

ec-12Jan-13Feb-13M

ar-13A

pr-13M

ay-13Jun-13Jul-13A

ug-13S

ep-13O

ct-13N

ov-13D

ec-13

28%

% s

atis

fied

Cameron

CleggCampbell

Clegg elected (Jan 08)

General Election

39%

Miliband 29%

Brown

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – December ‘13

Farage

33%

8

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIRMAJOR BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

9


David Cameron (satisfaction)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Satisfied

Dissatisfied

January 2006 – December 2013December 2013

SatisfiedDon’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -13

39%

52%

9%

Base 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013

10

0102030405060708090

100

Base: 249 Conservative supporters 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?

78%

17%

5%Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +61 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone


11


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2013) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2013)

HOWARD (2003-2005)


Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th-9th December 2013

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – December 2013December 2013


Dissatisfied

29%

54%

16%

Net = -25

13

47%

41%

13%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 327 Labour supporters 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013

Ed Miliband(satisfaction among Labour supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

December 2013

Net = +6


Dissatisfied


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – December 2013

14Nick Clegg (satisfaction)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+,7th-9th December 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Dissatisfied

Satisfied


28%

57%

15%


DissatisfiedNet = -29

15

0102030405060708090

100

Base: 84 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 7th-9th December 2013. N.B. small base size indicative only

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

December 2013

50%

36%

14%SatisfiedDon’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +14

Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?

January 2008 – December 2013



16

33%

38%

28%

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 62 UKIP supporters, 7th-9th December 2013. N.B. small base size indicative only

All


Dissatisfied87%

6%6%

UKIP supporters

SatisfiedDon’t knowDissatisfied

Net = -5 Net = +81

The economy

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jun-

04S

ep-0

4D

ec-0

4M

ar-0

5Ju

n-05

Sep

-05

Dec

-05

Mar

-06

Jun-

06S

ep-0

6D

ec-0

6M

ar-0

7Ju

n-07

Sep

-07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08S

ep-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

n-09

Sep

-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10S

ep-1

0D

ec-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

n-11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12S

ep-1

2D

ec-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

n-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013

Improve

Stay the sameGet worse Improve

Don’t know

Get worse

Stay the same

December 2013

EOI = +18

44%

27%

26%

2%

19

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Mar

-97

Jun-

97S

ep-9

7D

ec-9

7M

ar-9

8Ju

n-98

Sep

-98

Dec

-98

Mar

-99

Jun-

99S

ep-9

9D

ec-9

9M

ar-0

0Ju

n-00

Sep

-00

Dec

-00

Mar

-01

Jun-

01S

ep-0

1D

ec-0

1M

ar-0

2Ju

n-02

Sep

-02

Dec

-02

Mar

-03

Jun-

03S

ep-0

3D

ec-0

3M

ar-0

4Ju

n-04

Sep

-04

Dec

-04

Mar

-05

Jun-

05S

ep-0

5D

ec-0

5M

ar-0

6Ju

n-06

Sep

-06

Dec

-06

Mar

-07

Jun-

07S

ep-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

n-08

Sep

-08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09S

ep-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

n-10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11S

ep-1

1D

ec-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

n-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13S

ep-1

3D

ec-1

3

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46-56

-48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism IndexIn

dex

(get

bet

ter m

inus

get

wor

se)

-64


+18

Ed Balls, George Osborne & Boris Johnson: policies and personalities

21

Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Chancellor, George Osborne/ Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls/ London Mayor, Boris Johnson?

Perceptions of Balls, Osborne & Johnson and their policies

Ed BallsGeorge

OsborneBoris Johnson

% % %

I like him and I like his policies 16 19 39

I like him but I do not like his policies 11 8 20

I do not like him but I like his policies 10 17 5

I do not like him and I do not like his policies 41 37 18

Don't know 22 19 18

Total like him 27 27 59Total do not like him 51 54 23Total like his policies 26 36 44Total do not like his policies 52 45 38

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

22

36%

35%

18%

12%

Osborne vs. Balls: most capable Chancellor


Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls?

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013, 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013

George Osborne

Ed Balls

Neither

Don’t know

August 2013

40%

29%

19%

12%

December 2013

George Osborne

Ed Balls

Neither

Don’t know

23Most capable Chancellor - trend

35

36

29

34 35

3640

36

35

37 3438

35

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12Fe

b-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13Fe

b-13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls?

Ed Balls

George Osborne

ipsos mori political monitor: december 2013

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