ipsos mori political monitor: may 2014
DESCRIPTION
Ipsos MORI’s Economic Optimism Index is at its highest ever point in its 36-year history, according to May’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. More than half of Britons – 53% – think the UK economy will improve over the next 12 months, compared with 18% who think it will get worse and 25% saying it will stay the same. This gives an Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index score (% improve minus % get worse) of +35, the highest recorded since it began in April 1978. Three quarters of Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters think the economy will get better (77% and 75% respectively), as do four in ten Labour (41%) and UKIP supporters (39%).TRANSCRIPT
Voting Intentions
3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -2
All giving a voting intention: 81%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
32%
34%
10%
12%
12%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th -12th May 2014, all certain to vote = 589
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 59%
Conservative lead = -3
31%
34%
9%
11%
15%
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov-0
3
Feb-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Aug
-04
No
v-0
4
Feb-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Aug
-05
Nov-0
5
Feb-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Aug
-06
Nov-0
6
Feb-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Aug
-07
Nov-0
7
Feb-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Aug
-08
No
v-0
8
Feb-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Aug
-09
No
v-0
9
Feb-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Aug
-10
Nov-1
0
Feb-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Aug
-11
Nov-1
1
Feb-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Aug
-12
No
v-1
2
Feb-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Aug
-13
No
v-1
3
Feb-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
34%
Howard elected (Nov 03)
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
9%
31%
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions November ‘03 – May ‘14
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
11%
Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders
6
52
66
54
46
57
39
23
31
35
35
Net Satisfaction
Swing from April 2014
-13 +2.5
-43 -4.5
-23 +1.5
-11 -7.5
-22 +1.5
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
No
v-0
7D
ec-0
7Jan-0
8F
eb
-08
Ma
r-08
Ap
r-08
Ma
y-0
8Jun-0
8Ju
l-08
Au
g-0
8S
ep
-08
Oct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-0
9F
eb
-09
Ma
r-09
Ap
r-09
Ma
y-0
9Ju
n-0
9Ju
l-09
Au
g-0
9S
ep
-09
Oct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-0
9Ja
n-1
0F
eb
-10
Ma
r-10
Ap
r-10
Ma
y-1
0Ju
n-1
0Ju
l-10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-1
1F
eb-1
1M
ar-1
1A
pr-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
n-1
1Jul-1
1A
ug
-11
Se
p-1
1O
ct-1
1N
ov-1
1D
ec-1
1Ja
n-1
2F
eb
-12
Ma
r-12
Ap
r-12
May-1
2Ju
n-1
2Ju
l-12
Au
g-1
2S
ep
-12
Oct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-1
3F
eb
-13
Mar-1
3A
pr-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-1
4F
eb
-14
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
23% % s
ati
sfi
ed
Cameron
Clegg
Clegg elected (Jan 08)
General Election
39%
Miliband 31%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders November ‘07 – May ‘14
Farage
35%
8
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
9
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
May 2006 – May 2014 May 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -13
39%
52%
8%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 246 Conservative supporters 18+, 10th -12th May 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
84%
14%
3% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
May 2006 – May 2014 May 2014
11
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th -12th May 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – May 2014 May 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
31%
54%
15%
Net = -23
13
56% 34%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 267 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
May 2014
Net = +22
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – May 2014
14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th -12th May 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
May 2008 – May 2014 May 2014
23%
66%
11%
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -43
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 84 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 10th -12th May 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
May 2014
52% 42%
6% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +10
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
May 2008 – May 2014
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
16
35%
46%
19%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th -12th May 2014
All
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -11
March 2013 – May 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
17
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Nigel Farage
(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 93 UKIP supporters, 10th -12th May 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
89%
5% 6%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +84
March 2013 – May 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
The economy
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nov-0
4F
eb-0
5M
ay-0
5A
ug
-05
Nov-0
5F
eb-0
6M
ay-0
6A
ug
-06
Nov-0
6F
eb-0
7M
ay-0
7A
ug
-07
Nov-0
7F
eb-0
8M
ay-0
8A
ug
-08
Nov-0
8F
eb-0
9M
ay-0
9A
ug
-09
Nov-0
9F
eb-1
0M
ay-1
0A
ug
-10
No
v-1
0F
eb-1
1M
ay-1
1A
ug
-11
Nov-1
1F
eb-1
2M
ay-1
2A
ug
-12
Nov-1
2F
eb-1
3M
ay-1
3A
ug
-13
Nov-1
3F
eb-1
4M
ay-1
4
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
Improve
Stay the same Get worse
Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
May 2014
EOI = +35
53%
25%
18%
4%
20
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Au
g-9
7N
ov-9
7F
eb
-98
Ma
y-9
8A
ug
-98
No
v-9
8F
eb
-99
Ma
y-9
9A
ug
-99
No
v-9
9F
eb
-00
Ma
y-0
0A
ug
-00
No
v-0
0F
eb
-01
Ma
y-0
1A
ug
-01
No
v-0
1F
eb
-02
Ma
y-0
2A
ug
-02
No
v-0
2F
eb
-03
Ma
y-0
3A
ug
-03
No
v-0
3F
eb
-04
Ma
y-0
4A
ug
-04
No
v-0
4F
eb
-05
Ma
y-0
5A
ug
-05
No
v-0
5F
eb
-06
Ma
y-0
6A
ug
-06
No
v-0
6F
eb
-07
Ma
y-0
7A
ug
-07
Nov-0
7F
eb
-08
Ma
y-0
8A
ug
-08
Nov-0
8F
eb
-09
Ma
y-0
9A
ug
-09
Nov-0
9F
eb
-10
Ma
y-1
0A
ug
-10
Nov-1
0F
eb
-11
Ma
y-1
1A
ug
-11
No
v-1
1F
eb
-12
Ma
y-1
2A
ug
-12
No
v-1
2F
eb
-13
Ma
y-1
3A
ug
-13
No
v-1
3F
eb
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+17
-46
-56 -48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Ind
ex
(g
et
be
tte
r m
inu
s g
et
wo
rse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+35