ipsos mori political monitor: september 2014
DESCRIPTION
Ipsos MORI’s last Political Monitor before party conference season and the Clacton by-election shows that UKIP’s popularity has risen by two percentage points, as other parties’ remain stable.TRANSCRIPT
POLITICAL MONITOR
September 2014
Contacts:
020 7347 3000
Voting Intentions
3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -3
All giving a voting intention: 85%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
31%
34%
8%
14%
13%
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014, all certain to vote = 631
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 59%
Conservative lead = +1
34%
33%
7%
15%
11%
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec-0
3
Ma
r-04
Ju
n-0
4
Sep
-04
Dec-0
4
Ma
r-05
Ju
n-0
5
Sep
-05
Dec-0
5
Ma
r-06
Ju
n-0
6
Sep
-06
Dec-0
6
Ma
r-07
Ju
n-0
7
Sep
-07
Dec-0
7
Ma
r-08
Ju
n-0
8
Sep
-08
De
c-0
8
Ma
r-09
Ju
n-0
9
Sep
-09
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Sep
-10
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Sep
-11
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Sep
-12
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Sep
-13
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-14
Ju
n-1
4
Sep
-14
33%
7%
34%
15%
2005 General Election
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions December ‘03 – September ‘14
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their
intention to vote? January ‘08 to September ‘14
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2010 General Election
Labour Conservative
69% 63%
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders
7
54
66
58
44
56
39
21
29
39
36
Net Satisfaction
Swing from August 2014
-15 +0.5
-45 -3.5
-29 n/c
-5 -0.5
-20 -1
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th – 9th September 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ja
n-0
8F
eb
-08
Ma
r-08
Ap
r-08
May-0
8Ju
n-0
8Ju
l-08
Au
g-0
8S
ep
-08
Oct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-0
9F
eb-0
9M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9Jun-0
9Ju
l-09
Au
g-0
9S
ep
-09
Oct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-0
9Ja
n-1
0F
eb
-10
Mar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-1
0Ju
l-10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-1
1F
eb
-11
Ma
r-11
Ap
r-11
May-1
1Ju
n-1
1Ju
l-11
Au
g-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-1
1N
ov-1
1D
ec-1
1Ja
n-1
2F
eb
-12
Ma
r-12
Ap
r-12
Ma
y-1
2Jun-1
2Ju
l-12
Au
g-1
2S
ep
-12
Oct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-1
3F
eb
-13
Mar-1
3A
pr-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-1
4F
eb
-14
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4S
ep-1
4
21% % s
ati
sfi
ed
Cameron
Clegg
General Election
39%
Miliband 29%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders January ‘08 – September ‘14
Farage 39%
9
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
10
39%
54%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
September 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -15
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th – 9th September 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
September 2006 – September 2014
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 254 Conservative supporters 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
76%
20%
4% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +56 Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
September 2006 – September 2014 September 2014
12
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – September 2014 September 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
29%
58%
13%
Net = -29
14
42%
46%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 295 Labour supporters 18+, 6th – 9th September 2014
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
September 2014
Net = -4
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – September 2014
15 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
September 2008 – September 2014 September 2014
21%
66%
12%
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -45
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 70 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 6th – 9th September 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
September 2014
44%
51%
6% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -7
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
September 2008 – September 2014
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
17
39%
44%
17%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
All
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – September 2014
18
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Nigel Farage
(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 127 UKIP supporters, 6th -9th September 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
90%
7% 3%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t know Dissatisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – September 2014
Net = +83
The economy
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dec-0
4M
ar-
05
Ju
n-0
5S
ep
-05
Dec-0
5M
ar-
06
Ju
n-0
6S
ep
-06
Dec-0
6M
ar-
07
Ju
n-0
7S
ep
-07
De
c-0
7M
ar-
08
Ju
n-0
8S
ep
-08
Dec-0
8M
ar-
09
Ju
n-0
9S
ep
-09
Dec-0
9M
ar-
10
Ju
n-1
0S
ep
-10
Dec-1
0M
ar-
11
Ju
n-1
1S
ep
-11
Dec-1
1M
ar-
12
Ju
n-1
2S
ep
-12
Dec-1
2M
ar-
13
Ju
n-1
3S
ep
-13
Dec-1
3M
ar-
14
Ju
n-1
4S
ep
-14
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Improve
Stay the same Get worse Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
September 2014
EOI = +24
45%
29%
21%
4%
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
21
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
De
c-9
7M
ar-
98
Ju
n-9
8S
ep
-98
De
c-9
8M
ar-
99
Ju
n-9
9S
ep
-99
De
c-9
9M
ar-
00
Ju
n-0
0S
ep
-00
De
c-0
0M
ar-
01
Ju
n-0
1S
ep
-01
De
c-0
1M
ar-
02
Ju
n-0
2S
ep
-02
De
c-0
2M
ar-
03
Ju
n-0
3S
ep
-03
De
c-0
3M
ar-
04
Ju
n-0
4S
ep
-04
De
c-0
4M
ar-
05
Ju
n-0
5S
ep
-05
De
c-0
5M
ar-
06
Ju
n-0
6S
ep
-06
De
c-0
6M
ar-
07
Ju
n-0
7S
ep
-07
De
c-0
7M
ar-
08
Ju
n-0
8S
ep
-08
De
c-0
8M
ar-
09
Ju
n-0
9S
ep
-09
De
c-0
9M
ar-
10
Ju
n-1
0S
ep
-10
De
c-1
0M
ar-
11
Ju
n-1
1S
ep
-11
De
c-1
1M
ar-
12
Ju
n-1
2S
ep
-12
De
c-1
2M
ar-
13
Ju
n-1
3S
ep
-13
De
c-1
3M
ar-
14
Ju
n-1
4S
ep
-14
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+4
-46
-56 -48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Ind
ex
(g
et
be
tte
r m
inu
s g
et
wo
rse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+24
+34
UKIP
23 The utility of voting UKIP
On balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8%
41%
36%
26%
26%
6%
16%
14%
25%
27%
8%
7%
6%
9%
6%
12%
19%
20%
15%
10%
63%
14%
21%
19%
26%
3%
2%
3%
6%
4%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
34% 51%
33% 57%
14% 75%
UKIP is highlighting
important issues
which other parties
aren't taking
seriously enough
A vote for UKIP
in a General
election is a
wasted vote
I would like my local
MP to leave his/her
party and join UKIP
50% 41%
53% 36% Sept
2014
May
2014
Sept
2014
May
2014
Sept
2014
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014