ipsos mori scotland public opinion monitor: november 2015
TRANSCRIPT
November 2015
SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR
VOTING INTENTIONS
3
Scottish Parliament Voting Intention
(Constituency)
Base: All giving a voting intention = 928 . All likely to vote = 756. Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th
November 2015
HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
52%
20%
17%
7% 3%
2%
All giving a voting intention All likely to vote
SNP lead +32 SNP lead +30
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
GREEN
OTHER
50%
20%
18%
7% 3%
2%
4
Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Party List)
HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR SECOND VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
48%
20%
16%
8%
7% 3%
All giving a voting intention All likely to vote
SNP lead +28 SNP lead +27
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
GREEN
OTHER
46%
19%
16%
8%
7% 3%
Base: All giving a voting intention = 928 . All likely to vote = 748. Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th
November 2015
5
Holyrood- Constituency vote trend IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW, HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE?
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other (including Greens)
SATISFACTION WITH PARTY LEADERS
7
DAVID CAMERON NICOLA STURGEON JOHN SWINNEY
+4% swing from August
-9% swing from August
+1% swing from August
-36 Net 39 Net 19% Net SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 67% SATISFIED 49%
DISSATISFIED 66% DISSATISFIED 28% DISSATISFIED 30%
Satisfaction with Prime Minister, First Minister
and Deputy First Minister
Base: 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th November 2015
Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER / FIRST MINISTER/ DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER
0
-100
+100
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
8
KEZIA DUGDALE RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE
+3% swing from August
+5% swing from August
+2% swing from August
-7% swing from August
4 Net 14 Net -3 Net 24 Net SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 47% SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 18%
Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS / DOING HER JOB
AS FIRST MINISTER /HIS JOB AS DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER/ HIS/HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY?
0
-100
+100
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Base: 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th November 2015
Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
9
Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST MINISTER//PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES?
Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Aug-15 Nov-15
Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron
Nicola Sturgeon Kezia Dugdale John Swinney
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
THE EUROPEAN UNION
11
EU Referendum:
Should the UK remain a member of the EU? SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Base: 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th November 2015. Source:
Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Source: Ipsos MORI
SCOTLAND
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
22%
65%
13%
GB
36%
12%
52%
Base: 498 British adults 18+, 17th -19th October 2015. Source Ipsos
MORI Political Monitor
12
Have voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI
November 2015
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
65%
33%
2%
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT EUVOTE1 – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION
OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Base: 902 Scottish adults 16+ giving an opinion, 9th – 16th November 2015
13
Have voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
66%
32%
1%
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT Q9A/B – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION
OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Data collected among Scottish adults 16+ 9th – 16th November 2015
62%
35%
2%
Remain a member of EU Leave EU
Base: All saying that they would vote to remain in the EU (677) Base: All saying that they would vote to leave the EU (225)
14
3%
26%
37%
30%
5%
Confidence in David Cameron’s ability to
get a good EU deal for Britain PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
VERY CONFIDENT
FAIRLY CONFIDENT
NOT VERY
CONFIDENT
NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT
NO OPINION
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th November 2015
15
Technical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland.
Results are based on a survey of 1,029 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
Fieldwork dates: 9th - 16th November 2015.
Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and
public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment
series data
Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the
exclusion of “don’t know” categories
Results are based on all respondents (1,029) unless otherwise stated.
Contact us: Mark Diffley: [email protected];
0131 220 5699