ipsos mori scotland: scottish public opinion monitor september 2013

12
1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

Upload: ipsos-mori

Post on 28-Nov-2014

1.067 views

Category:

News & Politics


1 download

DESCRIPTION

Our latest poll for STV news finds that the SNP remains in the lead in voting for the Scottish Parliament. The regular Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor shows that, among those certain to vote, 41% would vote for the SNP, up 2 points since May. Labour are 4 points behind in second place on 37%, up a point since May, while the Conservatives are on 13%, down 3 points, and the Liberal Democrats are on 7%, down a point.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

1

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

Page 2: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

2

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Scottish Parliament voting

Page 3: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

3

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections

Base: All giving a voting intention = 816; all certain to vote = 61% (629). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

38%

37%

15%

9%

All giving a voting intention

41%

37%

13%

7%

Certain to vote

SNP lead

+1

SNP lead

+4

SNP

Labour

Cons.

Lib Dem

SNP

Labour

Cons.

Lib Dem

Page 4: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

4

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other

41%

37%

13%

7%

2%

Scottish Parliament Election

Result

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections

Page 5: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

5

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Perceptions of key figures

Page 6: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

6

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the

Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/?

Satisfaction with party leaders

Base: All. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

Alex Salmond

Johann Lamont

Patrick Harvie

David Cameron

Ruth Davidson

Willie Rennie

Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know Net

satisfaction

+8

+6

-28

0

+11

-5

48%

37%

32%

31%

27%

22%

40%

31%

60%

31%

16%

27%

12%

32%

8%

38%

58%

50%

Page 7: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

7

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the

Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/?

Satisfaction with leaders among own party supporters

Base: All. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

Alex Salmond

Johann Lamont

David Cameron

Ruth Davidson

Willie Rennie

Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know Net

satisfaction

+66

+64

+39

+39

+44

78% 14% 8%

81% 15% 4%

57% 18% 25%

58% 19% 23%

57% 13% 30%

Page 8: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

8

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime

Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?

Satisfaction with party leaders trend

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13

Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron

48%

37%

31%

22%

27%

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

32%

Page 9: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

9

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime

Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?

Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13

Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron

+8 +5 0 -5

+11

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

-28

Page 10: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

10

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

10

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Deputy First Minister/Leader of the Better Together

Campaign?

31%

32%

37%

17%

31%

52%

Don't know

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Satisfaction with campaign leaders

30%

23%

47%

11%

16%

73%

Don't know

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

All Own campaign supporters

Nicola Sturgeon Alistair Darling

Page 11: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

11

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here Technical details

• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents

conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 9th – 15th September 2013

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don’t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless

otherwise stated

Page 12: Ipsos MORI Scotland: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

12

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269

[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot