ipsos mori scottish public opinion monitor february 2014

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With a little less than 200 days to go until Scotland goes to the polls in the independence referendum, our latest poll for STV News shows little change in public opinion compared to our last poll in December 2013. Among those certain to vote in a referendum, around a third (32%) would vote ‘Yes’ if the vote was held now (down by 2 percentage points from December) while 57% would vote ‘No’ (unchanged from December) and 11% remain undecided.

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Page 1: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor February 2014

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor February 2014

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Independence referendum

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention

Base: All (1,001); all certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

Yes 29%

No 55%

Undecided 16%

All voters

Yes 32%

No 57%

Undecided 11%

Certain to vote

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention – recent trend

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14

No

Yes

Undecided

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’

Base: All (842); all certain to vote (691). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

Yes 35%

No 65%

All voters

Yes 36%

No 64%

Certain to vote

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and

definitely decided how they will vote

Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (572). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

Yes 33%

No 67%

All definitely decided and certain to vote

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14

No

Yes

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45% Scots who…

may not vote (22%)

will vote but are undecided (9%)

will vote but may change their vote (14%)

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31%

23%

Yes voters No voters

Voters who may change their mind

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Floating voters

Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (215); all undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th

February 2014

Yes 39%

No 29%

Undecided 33%

All undecided voters

Which way

are you

inclined to

vote?

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Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

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here Voting intention by gender

Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

38%

54%

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Men Women

% voting Yes

27%

59%

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30%

57% 12%

Voting intention by age group

Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

Yes

No

33%

51%

45%

43%

12%

28%

63% 9%

16-24 25-34

35-54 55+ 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+

*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds

% voting Yes

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Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

41%

47%

20%

71%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

% voting Yes

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94% 13%

82% 5%

Voting intention by party support

Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

Yes

No

76%

14%

11% 76%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

SNP Lab Con Lib Dem

% voting Yes

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Currency

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As you may know, the Scottish Government has proposed that an independent Scotland would continue to use the pound within a currency union with the rest

of the UK. The three main UK-wide political parties recently announced that they would not enter into a currency union with an independent Scotland. Based on

this announcement, what impact, if any will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum? Will you be more likely to vote ‘Yes’, more likely to vote ‘No’ or

will it make no difference?

Currency

Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

13%

30% 56%

More likely tovote YesMore likely tovote NoMake nodifferenceDon't know

16%

34%

44%

All

Undecided

voters

14%

37%

47% May

change

mind

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• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents

(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 20th– 25th February 2014

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don’t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless

otherwise stated

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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269

[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot