City of Thunder Bay Proposed Event and Convention Centre Public Opinion Survey Draft Report - June 9, 2014

Table of Contents

2

Survey Objectives 3

Survey Methodology 4

Reporting Conventions 5

Detailed Survey Results 6

-- Awareness of Proposed Event Centre 8

-- Current Support/Opposition to Proposed Event Centre 9

-- Concerns and Attitudes Towards Proposed Event Centre 12

-- Acceptability of a Property Tax Increase 16

-- Understanding the Issues that Impact Support or Opposition 17

-- Reaction to Additional Facts about the Proposed Event Centre 19

-- Support for Event Centre Assuming a 1% Property Tax Increase 21

Summary of Findings 23

Appendix A: Ward Profile 27

Appendix B: Spectator Events and Demographic Profile 30

Appendix C: Questionnaire 33

Ipsos Contact Information 40

Survey Objectives

Ipsos Reid is pleased to present the City of Thunder Bay with the results of the statistically valid public opinion survey regarding the proposed event and convention centre (event centre).

The survey is intended to:

Gauge unaided and aided awareness of the proposed event centre project and process;

Measure levels of support and opposition to the proposed event centre based on the public’s current understanding of the project and when provided with more information about the project;

Identify the issues that are important to whether residents support or oppose;

Seek residents’ concerns about the proposed event centre;

Gauge expectations for potential property tax increase and affordability levels; and Understand patterns of participation in spectator events.

3

Survey Methodology

4

The survey was conducted by telephone between May 8 and 22, 2014 among a random and representative sample of 1,000 City of Thunder Bay residents aged 18 or older.

The sampling method was designed to complete interviews within households randomly selected across the City (RDD method). A total of 150 interviews were targeted to cell phone only households.

Sample quotas were set for ward, age, and gender. Further, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s age and gender composition reflects that of the actual population of the City of Thunder Bay according to the 2011 Statistics Canada Census.

A sample of 1,000 interviews produces results which can be considered accurate within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for sub-groups of the data.

In this report, results are expressed as percentages unless otherwise noted. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding or multiple responses.

Reporting Conventions

Statistically Significant Differences

Statistically significant differences between sub-groups are identified by letter. A percentage that has a letter beside it indicates that this percentage is significantly higher

than the percentage in the specific letter column.

In the example below, Thunder Bay residents over the age of 35 are more likely to be aware of the proposed event centre (96% aware among 35 – 54 year olds and 97% among those 55+) compared to residents between the ages of 18 and 34 (74%). Similarly, residents who own their home are significantly more likely to be aware of the event centre (94%) compared to those who are renting (78%).

Age Rent/Own Home

18-34 35-54 55+ Rent Own

C D E U V

% Aware 74% 96%C 97%C 78% 94%U

5

Detailed Results

6

Most Important Issues Facing the City Today (Total Top Mentions)

7

On an unaided, or unprompted basis, only 13% name the proposed event and convention centre as one of the most important issues currently facing the City today. Roads (34%), taxes/budget (26%),infrastructure renewal (24%) and jobs (16%) are the most important issues currently facing the City of Thunder Bay, when asked unaided.

Q1. To begin, in your view what are the most important issues facing the City today? That is, what issues should receive the greatest attention from City Council? Base: All respondents (n=1000)

*Responses less than 4% are not shown.

34%

26%

24%

16%

13%

9%

9%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

4%

Roads

Taxes/Budget

Infrastructure Renewal

Jobs

Proposed Event & Convention Centre

Economic Development

Police/Crime/Public Safety

Recreation Services

Waterfront Revitalization

Environment

Healthcare

Poverty and Homelessness

Downtown Revitalization

23%

21%

17%

15%

13%

11%

9%

Transportation

Economy

Crime

Taxation/ Municipal Gov't Spending

Social Issues

Infrastucture Renewal

Community Revitalization

2013 Citizen Satisfaction Study

8

Nine-in-ten (91%) residents are aware of the planning for a new event and convention centre (residents over 35 and those who own their home are more likely to be aware of the project). The most common topics residents have heard about the proposed centre are the location, issues or concerns about costs, parking, that there is opposition/controversy, notions of acquiring a hockey team and that the project is in the planning stages.

Q2. Are you aware that the City is planning for the development of a new event and convention centre which will be a regional facility for sport tourism, conventions and other major events? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Q3. What specifically, have you heard about the proposal for the event and convention centre? Anything else? Base: Aware of the proposed centre (n=909)

Awareness of Proposed Event and Convention Centre

Aware of Event Centre Heard About Event Centre 52%

34% 10% 9%

29% 19%

7% 10% 9%

7% 7%

5% 4% 4% 4% 4%

9%

Location (NET)Location

Waterfront/ marina locationDowntown (location)

Financial/ Revenue (NET)Issues/ concerns regarding cost

Issues/ concerns regarding fundingParking issues/ lack of parking

Debate/ controversy/ oppositionAcquiring hockey team(s)

In planning/ proposal stages(Multipurpose) Event centre

Media (NET)Uneccessary/ bad idea

Project/ plan is in motion/…(Larger) Size of facility/ seating…

Don't know

91%

9% YesNo

Location (NET)

Financial (NET)

9

A majority of those aware of the project support the proposed event centre (61%) - either strongly (31%) or somewhat (30%). The 33% who oppose the propose event centre is comprised of 11% who are somewhat opposed and 22% who are strongly opposed. Among the 9% of residents who are unaware of the proposed event centre, 61% support, but fewer oppose (24%) and more don’t know and are unsure until they hear more details (16%).

Q4. Based on what you currently know, do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the development of the proposed event and convention centre? Base: Aware of the proposed event centre (n=909) Base: Unaware (n=91). [2013 wording is agreement scale – see below]

Current Support/Opposition to Proposed Event Centre

31%

23%

30%

38%

11%

7%

22%

17%

4%

8% 8%

Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat opposeStrongly oppose Depends (on details) Don't know / refused

61%

61%

Strongly & Somewhat Support

*Values less than 3% not labeled.

Support among those aware

Support among those unaware

Unchanged from 61% in 2013 Citizen Satisfaction Study

16b. Now we would like to focus on major capital programs or projects the City is working on itself or in partnership with the community. Please indicate your level of agreement with each of the following major capital programs or projects which will require future City spending. Would you say you (READ SCALE)…?

10

Residents support the proposal because the City needs a new/bigger/better facility, the growth and development and because of the sporting events and entertainment the facility will host. Residents oppose the proposal because they believe the City cannot afford it, it is the wrong location, they believe it is not a priority, it is a waste of money, because it will increase taxes, and not enough parking.

Q5. Why do you ‘support the proposed event and convention centre’ / ‘oppose the proposed event and convention centre’/‘say your support or opposition for the proposed event and convention centre depends’? Base sizes vary

27%

26%

14%

6%

5%

4%

22%

18%

17%

9%

6%

7%

Reason for Support/Opposition to Proposed Event Centre

Why Support

34%

25%

22%

15%

14%

10%

6%

6%

City can't afford it

Wrong/ bad location

Not Necessary/Priority

Waste/ better use ofmoney

Increase/ tax burden

No/ not enoughparking

Other negativementions

Don't know

Why Oppose

Needs new/ bigger/ better facility

Growth (Net)

Growth/ development of the city

Economic growth/ progress

Creates/ generates jobs/ employment

Brings/ creates businesses

Brings (sport) events/ entertainment

Good for everyone/ community/city

Promotes tourism/ tourist attraction

Generates (tax) money/ revenue

Good for youth

Don't know

Under the theme of growth.

Mentions less than 6% not displayed.

11

Among the 33% of residents who oppose the proposed event/convention centre, reasons for opposition are split. Four-in-ten (41%) of those who currently oppose the proposed event centre, oppose the current proposal, but support the development of a new event centre. On the other hand, half (49%) of residents who oppose the current proposal, oppose the development of any new event/convention centre. There are no significant socio-demographic differences between the two positions towards the event centre.

Q6.Which of the following is closest to your view? Base: Strongly/somewhat oppose the development of the proposed event and convention centre (n=300)

Do Those Opposed, Oppose The Current Proposal or Any Event Centre

41%

49%

10%

I oppose the current proposal, butsupport the development of a new

event and convention centre.

I oppose the development of a newevent and convention centre of any

kind.

Don't know

12

Top concerns about the proposed event centre include parking issues (30%), location (29%), and uncertain costs (28%). Other concerns include property tax increases (23%), traffic congestion (13%), lack of government funding (10%), proper utilization/attendance (4%) and competition (4%).

Q11. What concerns, if any, do you have about the proposed event centre? Base: All respondents (n=1,000)

30%

29%

28%

23%

13%

10%

4%

4%

15%

3%

Parking issues

Location of site

Uncertain costs

Property tax increase

Traffic congestion

Lack of Federal/Provincial funding

Proper utilization/ attendance/ attraction concerns of event centre

Competition

None

Don't know / refused

Concerns about the Proposed Event Centre (Total Mentions)

Mentions less than 4% not displayed.

13

Q8. Please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following? Whenever I say ‘event centre’ I am referring to the proposed event and convention centre. Base: All respondents (n=1000)

44%

44%

45%

33%

48%

34%

32%

34%

35%

35%

33%

42%

22%

35%

37%

32%

10%

9%

11%

13%

11%

13%

14%

10%

10%

5%

7%

10%

12%

16%

14%

20%

3%

8%

4%

7%

3%

4%

5%

A new event centre will increase the number of sportingand entertainment events that are held in the city.

A new event centre will increase the property taxes forresidents.

A new event centre should only happen with fundingfrom other levels of government and the private sector.

A new event centre will create a number of new jobs inthe city.

I am concerned the new event centre will not haveenough parking.

A new event centre will increase tourism in the city.

A new event centre will result in economic growth in thecity.

A new event centre might be expensive but it's worth itin the long run.

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

Most residents (78%) agree that the new event centre will increase the number sporting and entertainment events held in the city. They also expect property taxes will increase. Most feel the event centre should only happen with funding from other levels of government and the private sector. Nearly as many feel the new centre will create new jobs in the city. Fully seven out of ten residents are concerned the new centre will not have enough parking (48% strongly).

Attitudes Towards Event Centre

Strongly/ Somewhat agree

78%

78%

78%

75%

70%

69%

68%

66%

14

Q8. Please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following? Whenever I say ‘event centre’ I am referring to the proposed event and convention centre. Base: All respondents (n=1000)

A majority of Thunder Bay residents are concerned about the potential for traffic congestion problems (66%) and that the event centre will be costly to operate (57%). Just over half of residents believe the event centre will help retain youth in Thunder Bay (55%). Half of residents trust the City to make decisions about the proposed event centre (55%) and believe the City has done a good job of consulting with the public (50%). Six-in-ten (61%) disagree that the current facilities are adequate and that a new event centre is not needed. Only three-in-ten agree that the new event centre will negatively impact the operations of the community auditorium or banquet halls.

Attitudes Towards Event Centre (Con’t)

Strongly/ Somewhat agree

66%

57%

55%

55%

50%

42%

36%

30%

41%

33%

23%

23%

18%

17%

16%

11%

26%

24%

32%

32%

32%

25%

20%

19%

16%

22%

19%

15%

17%

27%

22%

31%

13%

14%

23%

27%

28%

25%

39%

34%

5%

8%

4%

3%

5%

6%

3%

6%

The amount of traffic a new event centre will generatewill create congestion problems in the downtown.

A new event centre will cost the city too much money tobuild and operate.

A new event centre will help keep our young people inthe city by giving them more to do

I trust the City Council to make decisions about theproposed event centre in the best interests of residents.

The city has done a good job of consulting with thepublic on the proposed event centre.

A new event centre will negatively impact the operationof the community auditorium.

Thunder Bay does not need a new event centre,because the current facilities are adequate.

A new event centre will negatively impact the operationof community facilities such as banquet halls.

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

15

Half (49%) of respondents did not know what to expect when asked about increases in annual residential property taxes to build and operate the event/convention centre. Among those who provided an answer, estimates were varied. However, 36% of residents anticipate a potential property tax increase greater than 1%.

Q9. Thinking about the costs required to build and operate the event and convention centre, how much do you expect annual residential property taxes will have to increase for the average home? Base: All respondents (n=1000)

2%

6%

8%

5%

5%

7%

11%

8%

49%

Less than 1%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6% or more

I don’t think property taxes will go up

I don’t know

Anticipated Potential Property Tax Increase as a Result of Event Centre

Respondents were permitted to answer this question as either a percentage or a dollar figure. All responses have been converted to a percentage for ease of analysis.

16

12. The cost to construct the event centre will need to be paid for in in part by the Federal and Provincial governments and potentially the private sector. However, some of the construction and operating cost will have to be covered by the City and may result in an increase in property taxes. In your view, is _____ very acceptable, somewhat acceptable, not very acceptable or not at all acceptable for residents to pay for the new event centre? Base: All respondents (n=1000)

35%

24%

29%

33%

10%

12%

24%

28%

Up to a 1% property tax increase (the equivalent of upto $24 per year for the average homeowner)

Up to a 1.5% property tax increase (the equivalent of orup to $36 per year for the average homeowner)

Very acceptable Somewhat acceptable Not very acceptable Not at all acceptable

The majority of Thunder Bay residents believe that a potential 1% property tax increase (64%) and to a lesser extent a 1.5% potential property tax increase (58%) is acceptable (very/somewhat) to cover the construction and operating costs for the proposed event and convention centre.

Acceptable Property Tax Increase

Very/ Somewhat acceptable

64%

58%

Understanding The Issues that Impact Support and Opposition

On the next slide is a Derived Importance Gap Analysis One of the methods used to understand the issues that are most important to whether or not

residents support or oppose the proposed event centre project is Correlation Analysis. In this project, Correlation Analysis has been conducted between the issues/statements in Question 8 and overall support or opposition to the project assuming a potential 1% property tax increase (Question 13). The degree to which each statement is correlated to support/opposition is indicated by a correlation co-efficient (ranging from 0 to 1). The closer to 1, the stronger the correlation, thus the more important it is to whether or not residents support or oppose the project. The correlation coefficients have been plotted along the x-axis and the current level of

agreement with the statement/issue has been plotted along the y-axis, to reveal which issues the City should focus on addressing in order encourage more residents to support the proposed project.

17

1% increase is acceptable 1.5% increase is

acceptable

Might be expensive but worth in in the long run

Economic growth More tourism Cost too much*

Trust Council to make decision in best

interests of residents More events

We don’t need it* Will keep young people

in the city City has done good job consulting residents

Create new jobs

Negatively impact auditorium*

More traffic congestion*

Not enough parking* Increased property

taxes* 0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Once told of the 1-1.5% increase this concern goes away for a majority of residents

What Do Residents Need To Know to Support Event Centre?

18

KEY STRENGTH: The degree to which residents find a 1% or 1.5% property tax increase acceptable is a strong predictor of support or opposition to the centre. Once told to estimate a 1.5% increase the majority of residents (58%) feel the increase is acceptable (64% find a 1% increase acceptable). Thus, the City should communicate the 1% figure with residents as soon as it is confirmed in order to help solidify and grow support. KEY WEAKNESS: The City needs to do a better job explaining why the centre is needed and that it will be worth the expense in the long run. Many residents who oppose do not fully understand/accept this. Secondarily, the City needs to demonstrate that it has an effective plan in place to mitigate traffic and parking concerns. This is a concern for many who currently oppose the project.

Current Level of Agreement (% Agree)

Stre

ngth

of c

orre

latio

n to

su

ppor

t or o

ppos

ition

at t

he

1% p

rope

rty

tax

leve

l

Stronger

Weaker

Low High

Weakness

Strength

Secondary Strength

Secondary weakness

19

Q10. Now, for each of the following statements from the City’s (Phase 2) Feasibility Study, please tell me if it makes you much more, somewhat more, somewhat less or much less likely to support the proposed event and convention centre or does it have no impact on your view. Base: Those aware who oppose the current proposal but support a new centre (n=124), Those aware who oppose any new centre (n=146)

8%

4%

7%

25%

15%

25%

14%

16%

12%

16%

15%

19%

25%

21%

33%

28%

39%

28%

36%

4%

6%

4%

Oppose current proposal, butsupport new centre

Oppose new centre of anykind

Oppose current proposal, butsupport new centre

Oppose new centre of anykind

Much more likely Somewhat more likely Somewhat less likelyMuch less likely Has no impact Don’t know

The facts and information below are modestly effective in motivating support among those who are aware of the proposed centre and are currently opposed. About one-quarter (including one-third of those who oppose the current proposal, but support a new centre and roughly two-in-ten of those who do not support any development) say they are more likely to support the proposal centre after learning the estimate of $150 million in incremental economic benefit to Thunder Bay or that the event centre will contribute to economic diversification and revitalization of the downtown core/waterfront.

Reaction To Facts about the Proposal (Among Those Opposed)

Much more/ Somewhat more

likely

33%

19%

32%

15%

During construction there will be approximately $150 million in total incremental economic

benefits for Thunder Bay including new employment

income

The event centre will contribute to economic

diversification of the City and revitalization of the downtown

core and waterfront district

Results less than 3% are not shown.

20

Q10. Now, for each of the following statements from the City’s (Phase 2) Feasibility Study, please tell me if it makes you much more, somewhat more, somewhat less or much less likely to support the proposed event and convention centre or does it have no impact on your view. . Base: Those aware who oppose the current proposal but support a new centre (n=124), Those aware who oppose any new centre (n=146)

6%

3%

24%

13%

24%

12%

14%

15%

15%

10%

23%

27%

20%

28%

26%

38%

29%

41%

8%

7%

8%

6%

Oppose current, butsupport new centre

Oppose new centre ofany kind

Oppose current, butsupport new centre

Oppose new centre ofany kind

Much more likely Somewhat more likely Somewhat less likelyMuch less likely Has no impact Don’t know

Reaction is similar to the other two facts below (about 20% are more likely to support the proposed event centre). The 20% figure is based on 3 in ten of those opposed to the current proposal and one in ten of those opposed to a new centre of any kind.

Much more/ Somewhat more

likely

30%

13%

28%

15%

New events and conferences are expected to generate over $6 million annually in spending by out-of-town visitors to the

facility

The event centre is projected to host an estimated 270

events annually compared to approximately 55 events

currently at the Fort William Gardens

Reaction To Facts about the Proposal (Among Those Opposed)

21

In order to determine whether support for the event and convention centre shifts after hearing information about the proposed event centre, overall support was asked once again at the end of the survey. As it turns out, support for the event and convention centre does not decrease once residents hear there may be a 1% property tax increase. Overall support holds at six-in-ten (62%).

Q13. If the City’s (Phase 3) feasibility study, currently in progress, determines that a 1% increase in property taxes is required (the equivalent of up to $24 per year for the average homeowner) to cover the City’s cost to build and operate the proposed event and convention centre - would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the proposed event centre, knowing this? Base: All respondents (n=1000)

Support for Event Centre – Post Property Tax and Event Fact Information

31%

34%

30%

28%

11%

10%

22%

24%

4%

Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat OpposeStrongly Oppose Depends Don't know

61%

62%

Strongly & Somewhat Support

Initial (pre) Support

Final (post) Support

*Values less than 3% not labeled.

22

“ I cannot see where the parking will be. People will be walking 10 minutes; they will

not walk 10 blocks to go to this event centre.”

Somewhat support

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

“The city cannot afford it. There is not enough entertainment to utilize the centre, and there are other buildings that can be used

for events. The money should be invested towards improving

hospitals and roads. Myself and my family will not attend.”

28%

10%

24%

Profiling Residents on Support/Opposition (Excludes 4% who are undecided)

Oppose any centre (uncertain costs, City can’t afford it & insufficient parking) Skew older (Average age 56) Less likely to attend events Less likely to have children <18 Most likely to own home Skew lower household income Skew priority on roads & taxes Skew toward Neebing and Westfort

Skew older (Average age 54) Oppose proposed plan, but like the idea of centre – believe it is the wrong location Would rate see Council focus on other issues e.g. roads ahead of this

Skew younger (Average age 46) Believe it will generate tax revenue for city Some believe it is being planned in the wrong location

Strongly support

“We need growth in the city and I think it is helpful to quality of life; my children

and grand children will benefit. Because I am into sports and the city

needs it.”

34% Skew younger (Average age 48)

Skew toward McIntyre and Red River Wards More likely to have children <18

Higher household income Most likely to believe it will generate

business/tourism

“Because it will be great for the city and bring in revenue, tourism and hockey.

I think it's a well needed facility, but they are planning it in the wrong area.”

Summary of Findings

23

Key Insights

Nearly all residents are aware of the proposed event centre, but it is not a top of mind issue in the city. Nine-in-ten (91%) residents are aware of the proposed event centre, but only 13% name the project, unaided, as

one of the most important issues facing the city.

Based on residents’ current understanding of the proposal, a majority support it. Six-in-ten (61%) residents aware of the proposal support it (31% strongly support and 30% somewhat support).

One-in-ten (11%) are somewhat opposed and 22% are strongly opposed with 6% of residents unsure of their opinion or indicate that their view depends on more information on issues such as costs . Of those who were hearing about the proposal for the first time during the survey (n=91 residents), 61% indicate support.

Four-in-ten of those opposed to the proposed event centre dislike the current proposal, but support the development of new centre. Of the 33% who oppose the proposed centre, four-in-ten (41%) say they oppose the current proposal, but support

the development of a new event centre, and five-in-ten (49%) say they oppose the development of any new event/convention centre. One-in-ten (10%) are unsure if they oppose the proposal or any development.

Uncertainty about the costs of the construction, location of centre and parking are the greatest concerns among residents. However, the primary reasons for support or opposed (as stated by residents and derived from Correlation Analysis) are focused on whether or not residents believe the new centre is needed, that it will be worth the investment and whether or not the city can afford it. Top concerns about the proposed event centre include parking issues (30%), location (29%), and uncertain costs

(28%). Other concerns include the amount of property tax increase required (23%), increased traffic congestion (13%), and concerns about a lack of government funding (10%). The primary reasons given for support are: that the city needs a bigger/better facility and that it will lead to

economic growth, while the primary reasons for opposition are: the city can’t afford it, it is a bad location, and that it is not necessary.

24

Key Insights

Six-in-ten residents (64%) indicate a 1% potential increase in property taxes to cover construction and operating costs is acceptable (58% find a 1.5% increase acceptable).

Prior to being instructed to consider the possibility that property taxes could potentially increase by 1% or 1.5%, residents were asked to estimate how much they would expect annual residential property taxes to go up to cover the construction and operating costs associated with the proposed centre. While nearly half (49%) had no idea, most others (36%) indicated that they expect property taxes to potentially go up by more than 1%.

Once told to consider the possibility of a 1% and 1.5% increase, a majority of Thunder Bay residents believe that a 1% property tax increase (64%) and to a lesser extent a 1.5% property tax increase (58%) is acceptable (very/somewhat).

Support for the proposed centre remains at six in ten assuming a 1% property tax increase. If Phase 3 determines that a 1% property tax increase is required, support for the project holds at 62%

(34% strongly and 28 somewhat support). One-third (34%) oppose (10% somewhat and 24% strongly) and 4% say it depends/don’t know. There are some shifts however, 14% of those who currently oppose the project say a potential 1%

property tax increase is acceptable, while 10% of those who currently support the project say they would oppose it on the basis of the potential 1% property tax increase.

25

Recommendations

Demonstrating that the new event centre justifies a potential 1% property tax increase is a key task for the City.

The City should communicate the potential 1% property tax figure with residents as soon as it is confirmed in order to help solidify support and alleviate the uncertainty of costs. The survey indicates that the degree to which residents find a 1% property tax increase acceptable is a strong predictor of support or opposition to the centre.

It is equally important for the City to put more focus on communicating the benefits of the event centre and that it will be worth the expense in the long run. Gaining funding commitments from other levels of government and private sector will also be important to demonstrating affordability and strengthening public support for the project.

Finally, the City needs to demonstrate to residents why the proposed location is the best option and that it has an effective plan in place to mitigate traffic and parking concerns.

26

Appendix A: Ward Profile

27

Attitudes Towards Event Centre

Westfort residents, who are least supportive of the proposal, are also most likely to be concerned with insufficient parking (81%), congestion problem downtown (74%) and believe that the city does not need a new event centre because the current facilities are adequate (46%).

Red River residents are the least concerned about parking or traffic and most likely to agree that the current facilities are inadequate.

28

Current River McIntyre McKellar Neebing Northwood Red

River Westfort

% Agree F G H I J K L

Overall Support (Q13) 68%L 68%L 68%L 58% 58% 61% 53%

Concerned about not enough

parking 70% K 62% 69% 73% K 75% GK 58% 81% FGHK

Will create congestion

problems in the downtown

59% 64% 65% 70% FK 73% FK 57% 74% FK

Does not need event centre –

current facilities are adequate

33% 33% 37% 35% 37% 29% 46% FGK

* For an explanation on statistical letters, see reporting conventions on slide 5.

29

Support for the proposed event and convention centre is highest in McIntyre (68% including 49% strongly supportive), followed by Current River, and McKellar wards (68% support) and lowest in Westford (53%) where Fort Williams Garden is currently located. It is unknown if support for the current proposal may increase among Westfort residents once residents learn the future use of Fort Williams Gardens.

Q13. If the City’s (Phase 3) feasibility study, currently in progress, determines that a potential 1% increase in property taxes is required (the equivalent of up to $24 per year for the average homeowner) to cover the City’s cost to build and operate the proposed event and convention centre - would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the proposed event centre, knowing this? Base: All respondents (n=1000)

Support for Event Centre – Post Property Tax and Event Fact Questions WARD PROFILE

Overall Total

Current River McIntyre McKellar Neebing Northwood Red

River Westfort

F G H I J K L

Strongly support 34% 37%L 49%FHIJL 35%L 31% 28% 39%JL 22%

Somewhat support 28% 32%G 18% 33%G 26% 30%G 22% 32%G

Somewhat oppose 10% 7% 10% 10% 12% 8% 11% 16%FJ

Strongly oppose 24% 20% 22% 17% 27%H 31%FH 22% 27%

Overall Support 62% 68%L 68%L 68%L 58% 58% 61% 53%

* For an explanation on statistical letters, see reporting conventions on slide 5.

Appendix B: Demographics &

Attendance at Spectator Events

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31

Q14. Thinking about the past 12 months, including all four seasons, how often have you…? Would you say you go more than once a week, every couple of weeks, once a month, every couple of months, once or twice a year, every couple of years, or never. Base: All respondents (n=1000)

48%

39%

16%

18%

14%

34%

25%

35%

28%

31%

17%

36%

48%

53%

54%

Paid to see shows, plays or musical events in Thunder Bay

Paid to see sporting events in Thunder Bay

Paid to see shows, plays or musical events out of town

Attended conferences/conventions either in/outside Thunder Bay

Paid to see sporting events out of town

Often (Every couple of months- More than once a week) Once in a while (Once or twice a year/ Every couple of years) Never

Currently, more Thunder Bay residents pay to see shows, plays or musical events in Thunder Bay than sporting events. Roughly half (45%-51%) of residents report paying to see shows or sporting events outside Thunder Bay at least every couple of years. This includes 1 to 2 in 10 who report paying to see shows or sporting events outside Thunder Bay every couple of months or more often.

Attendance at Spectator Events In and Outside of Thunder Bay

Demographic Profile

Number of Children under 18 in home

0 73%

1 12%

2 11%

3 or more 4%

Age

18-34 26%

35-54 35%

55+ 39%

Gender

Male 48%

Female 52%

Rent or Own Home

Own 83%

Rent 13%

Neither 3%

Own/ Operate Business

Yes 10%

No 90%

Household Income

Less than $25,000 6%

$25,000 to less than $50,000 13%

$50,000 to less than $75,000 20%

$75,000 to less than $100,000 16%

$100,000 to less than $125,000 12%

$125,000 to less than $150,000 6%

Greater than $150,000 7%

Don't know / refused 21%

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Appendix C: Questionnaire

33

2014 Questionnaire

INTRODUCTION: Hello, my name is __________________ - I’m calling from Ipsos Reid, a national public opinion research company on behalf of the Corporation of the City of Thunder Bay. WE ARE NOT SELLING ANYTHING – We are conducting a survey among residents of Thunder Bay regarding important municipal issues. All of your responses will be kept strictly anonymous and confidential.

We’re interested in hearing from a broad cross-section of residents over the age of 18. Is there anyone in your household who is 18 to 34 years old?

(IF YES) Can I speak to that person?

(ARRANGE CALL-BACK IF 18-34 YEAR OLD HOUSEHOLD MEMBER IS UNAVAILABLE)

(IF NO MEMBERS OF THE HOUSEHOLD ARE 18-34 YEARS OF AGE) May I speak to the person in the household who last had a birthday?

(IF RESPONDANT IS DIFFERENT FROM FIRST CONTACT, RE-READ INTRODUCTION)

(IF RESPONSE ASKS ABOUT HOW LONG THE SURVEY WILL TAKE READ: The survey will take approximately 10 minutes.)

SCREENER QUESTIONS

A) Before we get started, does anyone in your household work for (READ LIST)?

An advertising agency

The media – that is a radio or TV station, newspaper, magazine or online news agency

A market research firm

OR

[ASK LAST] Is an elected official or senior management of the City of Thunder Bay

(DO NOT READ) None

[IF ‘NONE’, CONTINUE. OTHERWISE (INCLUDING DK/REF), THANK AND TERMINATE]

B) Do you live in The City of Thunder Bay? That is within the city limits and not neighbouring municipalities.

Yes

No

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2014 Questionnaire

C) Record gender. D) What year were you born in? Important Issues Facing the City of Thunder Bay To begin, in your view what are the most important issues facing the City today? That is, what issues should receive the greatest attention from City Council? [Open-ended question. Used pre-coded list] Awareness of Proposed Event Centre 2. Are you aware that the City is planning for the development of a new event and convention centre which will be a regional facility for sport tourism, conventions and other major events? Yes No Don’t know 3. What specifically, have you heard about the proposal for the event and convention centre? …Anything else? (RECORD ALL MENTIONS) Current Support/Opposition to the Proposed Event Centre 4. Based on what you currently know, do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the development of the proposed event and convention centre? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know Depends (on details such as how much it will cost etc.)

35

2014 Questionnaire

5. Why do you [IF STRONGLY OR SOMEWHAT SUPPORT IN Q4 INSERT ‘support the proposed event and convention centre’ IF STRONGLY OR SOMEWHAT OPPOSE IN Q4 INSERT ‘oppose the proposed event and convention centre’ IF DEPENDS AT Q4 INSERT ‘say your support or opposition for the proposed event and convention centre depends’] ? (OPEN-END, RECORD ALL MENTIONS)

6. Which of the following is closest to your view? I oppose the current proposal, but support the development of a new event and convention centre. I oppose the development of a new event and convention centre of any kind.

7. Recognizing that you are not aware of the details of the proposal, do you generally support or oppose building a new event and convention centre to replace Fort William Gardens? Is that strongly or somewhat?

Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know Depends (on details such as how much it will cost etc.)

36

8. Please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following? Whenever I say ‘event centre’ I am referring to the proposed event and convention centre. A new event centre will increase tourism in the city. A new event centre will create a number of new jobs in the city. A new event centre will result in economic growth in the city. A new event centre will increase the number of sporting and entertainment events that are held in the city. A new event centre will help keep our young people in the city by giving them more to do A new event centre will increase the property taxes for residents. A new event centre will cost the city too much money to build and operate. A new event centre should only happen with funding from other levels of government and the private sector. The city has done a good job of consulting with the public on the proposed event centre. Thunder Bay does not need a new event centre, because the current facilities are adequate. A new event centre might be expensive but it’s worth it in the long run. I trust the City Council to make decisions about the proposed event centre in the best interests of residents.

2014 Questionnaire

A new event centre will negatively impact the operation of the community auditorium. A new event centre will negatively impact the operation of community facilities such as banquet halls. The amount of traffic a new event centre will generate will create congestion problems in the downtown. I am concerned the new event centre will not have enough parking. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know Gauge Anticipated Property Tax Increase

9. Thinking about the costs required to build and operate the event and convention centre, how much do you expect annual residential property taxes will have to increase for the average home?

[Open-end, record amount in $ or %] I don’t think property taxes will go up [Single punch] I don’t know [Single punch]

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Impact of Proposed Event Centre Facts on Support/Opposition 10. Now, for each of the following statements from the City’s (Phase 2) Feasibility Study, please tell me if it makes you much more, somewhat more, somewhat less or much less likely to support the proposed event and convention centre or does it have no impact on your view.

The event centre is projected to host an estimated 270 events annually compared to approximately 55 events currently being held at the Fort William Gardens.

During construction of the event centre there will be approximately $150 million in total incremental economic benefits for Thunder Bay including new employment income.

New events and conferences are expected to generate over $6 million annually in spending by out-of-town visitors to the facility

The event centre will contribute to economic diversification of the City and revitalization of the downtown core and waterfront district.

Much more likely Somewhat more likely Somewhat less likely Much less likely OR has not impact Don’t know

2014 Questionnaire

11. What concerns, if any, do you have about the proposed event centre? (OPEN-END, RECORD ALL MENTIONS)

(DO NOT READ LIST) Property tax increase Uncertain costs Lack of Federal/Provincial funding Parking issues Traffic congestion Location of site Competition Feasibility of AHL team Impact on LU/Lakehead/University Thunderwolves (hockey team) Other (Specify) None [Split Sample: n=500 get asked 1% and then 1.5% and the other n=500 get asked 1.5% and then 1%.] (Interviewer Note: this split sample is to ensure that there is no biasing of results depending on the order with which the percentages are read out to respondents.) 12. The cost to construct the event centre will need to be paid for in in part by the Federal and Provincial governments and potentially the private sector. However, some of the construction and operating cost will have to be covered by the City and may result in an increase in property taxes. In your view, is a [Insert amount] very acceptable, somewhat acceptable, not very acceptable or not at all acceptable for residents to pay for the new event centre? Up to a 1% property tax increase (the equivalent of up to $24 per year for the average homeowner) Up to a 1.5% property tax increase (the equivalent of or up to $36 per year for the average homeowner)

38

Very acceptable Somewhat acceptable Not very acceptable Not at all acceptable (If Necessary Interviewer Note for Fly Sheet: If asked how the increase was calculated, it’s based on using Thunder Bay’s average residential property value of $148,000. If they want to calculate for the value of their specific property, the increase at 1% would be $16 per year per each $100,000 assessed value of their property. At 1.5% it would be $24 per year per $100,000 assessed value of their property. Indicate that this survey has a residential focus and to understand the impact on business, they should contact Rob Colquhoun at the City at 807.625.3154. A tax levy increase of 1% will generate an additional $1.6 million in municipal tax revenue whereas a 1.5% increase will generate an additional $2.4 million in municipal taxation revenue.)

2014 Questionnaire

39

Support/Opposition to Potential Property Taxes/Cost 13. If the City’s (Phase 3) feasibility study, currently in progress, determines that a 1% increase in property taxes is required (the equivalent of up to $24 per year for the average homeowner) to cover the City’s cost to build and operate the proposed event and convention centre - would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the proposed event centre, knowing this? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know Depends (on details such as how much it will cost etc.)

Participation in spectator events NOTE TO READER: This question will help determine incidence of current event attendance and variations by demographic and socio-economic variables]. Switching gears…I’d like to ask you some questions about your leisure time. 14. Thinking about the past 12 months, including all four seasons, how often have you [INSERT]? Would you say you go more than once a week, every couple of weeks, once a month, every couple of months, once or twice a year, every couple of years, or never… Paid to see sporting events in Thunder Bay Paid to see sporting events out of town Paid to see shows, plays or musical events in Thunder Bay Paid to see shows, plays or musical events out of town Attended conferences and/or conventions either in or outside of Thunder Bay More than once a week Once a week Every couple of weeks Once a month Every couple of months Once or twice a year Every couple of years Never

2014 Questionnaire

40

Demographics I just have some final questions for statistical purposes. All of your responses will be kept strictly confidential and will only be looked at in aggregate. (IF NECESSARY: WE ASK THESE QUESTIONS TO ENSURE THAT ALL SEGMENTS OF THE POPULATION HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO GIVE THEIR OPINION.) D1. Do you own or operate a business in Thunder Bay? Yes No Don’t know D2. Do you rent or own your home? Rent Own Neither (Do not read) D3. And, how many children under the age of 18 are living in your home? [0-99] D4. Would you say that your total annual household income before taxes is . . . ? (Read list. Select only one. Stop when category is reached) Less than $25,000 $25,000 to less than $50,000 $50,000 to less than $75,000 $75,000 to less than $100,000 $100,000 to less than $125,000 $125,000 to less than $150,000 Greater than $150,000

D5. And finally, what is your postal code?

[XXX-XXX]

On behalf of the City of Thunder Bay, I would like to thank you very much for your participation. Thank you and have a great day/evening!

Ipsos Contact Information

Lauren Hilderley Research Manager 300 -160 Bloor Street East Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4W 1B9 Phone: 416-324-2301 Email: Lauren.Hilderley@ipsos.com