ipv4 address depletion: a cto perspective (detecon executive briefing)
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8/8/2019 IPv4 address depletion: A CTO perspective (Detecon Executive Briefing)
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www.detecon.com
Steffen Oehler Kees van Peer
Steffen.Oehler @ detecon.com Kees.vanPeer @ detecon.com
IPv4 address depletion
A CTO perspective
The world is increasingly reliant on telecommunication networks no
matter whether they are fixed or mobile. The Internet and broadband
connections to it are the basis for nearly all new communication
services. Even though the number of computers and Internet users
continues to grow with impressive speed, the connection of “things”
(devices) to the Internet is expected to increase even more
significantly over the next few years. The wide spectrum of new
members in the Internet community will range from coffee machines to
cars and to all kinds of sensor applications. All of these devices will
need a unique address, a so-called IP address. Currently the majority
of the addresses conform to the IP version 4 (IPv4) standard. Whilst
the required number of addresses is expected to explode, the number
of IPv4 addresses is limited. Therefore operators and providers will
soon have to migrate to a new addressing standard called IP version 6
(IPv6). This new addressing standard has not yet received the
attention it deserves, and most companies are running their networks
using IPv4 only. Detecon recommends that operators and providers
take action now because the end of the available IPv4 address space
is on the horizon. The migration towards IPv6 will be a time and
resource consuming exercise, which if addressed too late will put
revenue at risk.
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> Executive Briefing
IPv4 address depletion – A CTO perspective
IP4aedeo
Introduction
The Internet is a worldwide, publicly accessible collection of interconnected communications
networks that use packet switching techniques to transmit data formatted according to the
Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4) specifications. All systems that are connected to the
Internet need a unique address, a so-called IPv4 address. This address is carried in a 32 bit
field of an IPv4 packet, so there are almost 4.3 billion possible addresses. Unfortunately,
many of these addresses cannot be used because they are reserved for special purposes or
have been assigned to the internal networks of large companies or government agencies.
Furthermore, addresses are not distributed evenly among regions, countries and companies.
Some of the first large users of the Internet, such as the US Department of Defence, IBM
and AT&T have been assigned large portions of the IPv4 address space whilst developingregions, such as Africa and Latin America, have only been assigned small portions of the
IPv4 address space. The following figure shows the distribution of the IPv4 address space
over the different regions in the world as well as an overview of the 15 countries that have
the most addresses assigned to them.
19%
22%
12%
1%
Africa
12%
Asia Pacific
12%North America
3% Latin America
Europe + Russia
Various
Historical
19%
Available
NL
End-2007
0
UKUS JP CN EU CA
End-2006
DE FR KR AU IT BR MX ES
100
120
1.380
140
1.400
1.420
20
40
60
80
IPv4 address space distribution (source: Illjitsch van Beijnum, “2007 IPv4 address use report”)
By the end of 2007 only 19% of the usable address space was unassigned. It is safe to
assume that the Internet will continue to grow, so a day will come when there are no
unassigned IPv4 addresses available. Internet standardization organizations acknowledged
this as a problem and started the development of a new packet specification with an
enhanced addressing concept in the early 1990s, namely IP version 6 (IPv6). Although
completed by the end of the last century, companies placed it low on their priority list largely
because there were still enough IPv4 addresses available and because there were technical
measures available to work around a limitation in the number of addresses. But today these
operators and providers can not maintain this positioning because the end of the available
IPv4 address space is on the horizon.
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> Executive Briefing
IPv4 address depletion – A CTO perspective
IP4aedeo
Momentum for the use of IPv6 is building. Vendors are emphasizing the IPv6 capabilities of
their products and Internet organizations (such as RIPE and ARIN) have called on the
industry to adopt IPv6. In this executive briefing, Detecon will analyze how the IPv4 address
depletion can impact an operator’s and provider’s capability to deliver services. Furthermore,
this document will give recommendations on how operators and providers can manage the
implementation and migration to IPv6.
The problem
In the previous section a bold statement was made that the end of the unassigned IPv4address space is on the horizon. One of the main questions is obviously: “when is it going to
happen?” “And more importantly, how will it impact operators and providers?” These two
questions will now be addressed:
1. When: it is expected in the spring of 20121. There is a large margin of error in this
prediction since address space consumption depends on many factors (e.g. economic
development). The actual depletion date might be as early as 2010 or as late as 2013;
2. Impact: existing networks will initially continue to operate. However, if addressed too late
there are significant risks to revenue growth and to service delivery capability. Operators
and providers will have to deal with issues such as:
Growth of customer base and services since they do not have the addresses toconnect new customers.
Introduction of new services that require massive numbers of connections (such as
machine-to-machine communications) or that require technology that only supports
IPv6 (such as next generation mobile services).
Managing and scaling their network since they will have to compensate for the
limitations in their IPv4 address space by implementing technologies that have
significant limitations of their own.
Interestingly, the problem of IPv4 address depletion has some resemblances to the
millennium problem:
Both have a deadline. The IPv4 deadline will not be as compelling as the deadline for the
millennium problem but will be there nonetheless.
Both require a complete assessment of all involved systems to determine the exact
impact of the problem and to decide on the next steps.
Both are underestimated since companies are waiting until the problem is fully visible
before adopting measures to address it.
1Source: Geoff Huston, “IPv4 address report” at http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
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IPv4 address depletion – A CTO perspective
IP4aedeo
Detecon strongly recommends that operators and providers learn from the lessons of the
millennium project and start planning now for the introduction of IPv6 in to their networks.
This is not a trivial undertaking:
All hardware and software must support IPv6. Even though vendors’ marketing
departments state that their products fully support IPv6 and its features, the reality is
often different. In some cases IPv6 is only implemented in software, whereas IPv4 is
often implemented in hardware, essentially giving operators a reduction in the capacity in
their network when they turn on IPv6.
The customer’s hardware and software must also support IPv6. This will not be a
problem for state-of-the-art consumer products, but how will operators and providers
convince a customer with an IPv4 product to buy an IPv6 one? Especially if there are noclear benefits for the customer! Therefore, equipment purchased today should ideally
already support IPv6.
Operators and providers should thoroughly test the IPv6 implementation since small
differences in implementation may lead to interoperability problems.
The networks to which an IPv6 based operator or provider connects must support IPv6.
Otherwise the network will essentially be an IPv6 island in an IPv4 world.
The operator and provider staff must be trained in IPv6.
A network must allow IPv4 and IPv6 to coexist in order to allow for a smooth transition.
This is especially important since IPv4 will still be used for many years.
Next steps
The successful implementation of and migration to IPv6 requires that different parts of an
operator’s and provider’s organization cooperate and communicate. Detecon recommends
that companies set up a multidisciplinary project team in which all involved departments are
represented. The following figure shows the recommended approach to IPv6 implementation
and migration.
Purchasing of IPv6 capable systems / Education
Analyze
(approximately 1 year)
Plan
(approximately 6 months)
Execute
(5+ years)
Existing environment
Vendor Roadmap
Execute changes
Update Plan
IPv6planning
Implementation
and Migrationplan
Service
Strategy
& RoadmapArchitecture
IPv6 implementation and migration roadmap
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IP4aedeo
As can be seen from this figure, this approach consists of four major blocks:
1. Ensure that all newly purchased equipment is fully IPv6 capable in software. High
performance systems (such as routers and switches) must also provide full hardware
support for IPv6. This is essential since new purchases may not be fully depreciated by
the time IPv6 is turned on in a network. Additionally the operators and providers should
train their staff in IPv6.
2. Start with an analysis of the existing environment and services. This means:
Requesting an IPv6 roadmap from all hardware and software suppliers.
Furthermore, the operators and providers should get an IPv6 roadmap from all
network operators to which they are connected. This will provide valuable
information on how and when IPv6 can be turned on based on an operator’s existing
platforms.
Reviewing the IPv4 addressing in the existing network, OSS/BSS and (corporate) IT
environment and services. This will provide operators and providers with valuable
information about the existing addressing structure, possibly enabling them to
identify problems at an early stage.
It is important to invest enough time in the analysis because each detail should be
captured. The duration of this phase depends on the size of the existing environment,
the number of people assigned to the project, and the level of support from suppliers. It
can be as high as one year or more.
3. Once operators and providers have an overview of the existing environment and services
they can plan the implementation and migration. This consists of a number of activities:
Updating the service/marketing roadmap and strategy with IPv6. This includes
planning when services based on IPv6 should be available. It also includes the
planning of upgrades to existing services. This is particularly important when
customer-owned hardware and software is involved.
Updating the target architecture. The target architecture provides operators and
providers with an overview of all functions in their environment and the relationships
between these functions. This makes it easier for operators and providers to
synchronize implementation and migration activities internally and externally.
Developing the steps to migrate from the existing to the target architecture. Detecon
recommends that these steps are as small as possible to minimize risks.
Furthermore, operators and providers should make sure that this plan is aligned to
the service/marketing roadmap and strategy.
Careful planning of the implementation and migration will save time during the execution.
Hence it is important to invest time in this phase.
4. In the final phase the implementation and migration plan is executed. As in any project it
is likely that unforeseen situations will be encountered and the plan should be adapted
accordingly.
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Reomme
oConclusion & Recommendations
In this executive briefing Detecon has highlighted that the depletion of IPv4 address space
requires the attention of providers and operators. It is predicted that the depletion will take
place somewhere in the spring of 2012. Detecon recommends that all involved market
players start the planning for the implementation of and migration to IPv6 as soon as
possible. Waiting will result in problems relating to:
Growing the customer base.
Introducing new services.
Managing and scaling the network.
Hence, it will impact future growth and might jeopardize future business.
The depletion of IPv4 address space can be compared to the millennium problem.
Therefore, we advise operators and providers to review the lessons learned in preparation
for the turn of the century. Migration to IPv6 is a task that should not be underestimated
because:
All hardware and software (both operator and customer owned) must support IPv6.
The networks that an IPv6-based operator connects to must support IPv6.
The operator’s staff must be trained in IPv6.
A network must allow the coexistence of IPv4 and IPv6.
It is recommended that all operators and providers set-up a multidisciplinary project team in
which all involved departments are represented. This project team should:
Analyze the existing network, OSS/BSS and (corporate) IT environment.
Plan the implementation of and migration to IPv6.
Execute the implementation plan.
The duration of this task depends on the size of the environment, the number of people
assigned to the project, and the level of vendor support. Operators and providers should,
however, expect durations of up to six years because execution requires high levels of
synchronization with organizations both within and outside the company. Furthermore, aswith any major change, Detecon recommends that operators and providers take small steps
in order to minimize the operational risks.
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Glossary
ARIN American Registry for Internet Numbers
BSS Business Support Systems
IP Internet Protocol
IT Information Technology
OSS Operations Support Systems
RIPE Réseaux IP Européens
Country Codes
AU Australia IT Italy
BR Brazil JP Japan
CA Canada KR Korea
CN China MX Mexico
DE Germany NL Netherlands
ES Spain UK United Kingdom
EU Multiple countries in Europe US United States
FR France