ipv6. where do we go from here - …d2zmdbbm9feqrf.cloudfront.net/2013/usa/pdf/psospg-1330.pdfipv6....

IPv6. Where do we go from here ? PSOSPG-1330

Alain Fiocco, Sr. Director IPv6 High Impact Project

Greg Smith, Service Provider Marketing Manager

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. PSOSPG-1330 Cisco Public

IPv6 migration: A Mexican Standoff

Content

User

ISP

Device

“A deadlock, stalemate, impasse; a roughly equal (frequently unsatisfactory)

outcome to a conflict in which there is no clear winner or loser,”

Where is the content?

Too much pain &

no gain

Where is the

network?

Do I pay less ?

Any new

applications?

NAT’s are good.

RFC1918 gives me

security, and IPv4

address runout is my

ISP’s problem.

The network is not ready, users

don’t care and I don’t want to

risk a poor end-user experience

today for potential gains

tomorrow

Enterprise


RIPE ARIN AFRINIC LACNIC

IANA

Service Providers, Local Registry, Enterprises

Mean while … IPv4 run-out is very real

http://ipv6.he.net/statistics/

APNIC

Last /8 policy

http://ipv6.he.net/statistics/


CGN

Carrier Grade NAT: Sharing public IPv4 addresses Makes the Internet Statefull ! … Really ?

IPv4

Performance ? End User Experience ?

Troubleshooting ? Security ? Location ?

Data rentention: User@ Logging vs TCP session logging?

Private

IPv4

Session States {SIP@,DIP@,Sp,Dp}

http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-12226605-brightly-coloured-ethernet-network-cables-twisted-on-white-backg.php?st=7937ed1


Impact of CGN-NAT on User Experience

Web 2.0 (ex: AJAX) Application Behavior Under Constrained NAT Resources

20 NAT Sessions 15 NAT Sessions 10 NAT Sessions 30 NAT Sessions times millions of users


CGN

IPv6 – “Full Spectrum” Internet Restoring End to End

IPv4

AAAA

A

IPv6 for growth,

IPv4 for legacy (with CGN == a necessary Evil)

DNS

IPv6 (50% of content today)

http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-12226605-brightly-coloured-ethernet-network-cables-twisted-on-white-backg.php?st=7937ed1


The world has changed on June 6th 2012

Users Content

Cloud

CDN

The

Network

AT&T

Verizon Mobile

Comcast

TWC

Free

RCS&RDS

XS4ALL

KDDI

Softbank

Many to come in 2013

Google

Facebook

Yahoo

Bing

Wikipedia

Netflix

Amazon

1000’s Enterprises

Public Agencies

Amazon

Rackspace

OVH

Akamai

Limelight

http://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants

> 1.5% > 80%

>40%

http://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants


IPv6 Global Deployment To Users

Now Doubling Every 9 months

Cisco’s commitment

to IPv6

June, 2010 “World IPv6 Day”

June, 2011

“World IPv6 Launch”

June, 2012

Cisco Live

June, 2013

10+ Years of preparation and trial

Industry bands together

to move to mainstream


Forecasting*

3 years: 15 – 25 % 50% point in 5 years

(Logistic S-Curve Model)

* Based on past data. Does not include effect of new IPv6-only Internet of

Things Architectures, Smartgrid, IPv4 run-out outside of Asia and the EU, etc.


Visual Networking Index forecast

11

Devices Projected to be IPv6 capable in 2017:

• 73% of smartphones, reaching 2.1 billion

• 74% of tablets, reaching 520 million

• 79% of laptops, reaching 717 million

• 24% of M2M connections, reaching 1.4 billion

In 2017, If 50 percent of IPv6-capable devices are

actively connected to an IPv6 network, the forecast

estimates that globally, IPv6 traffic would amount to

• 28.8 exabytes per month

• 24 percent of total Internet traffic.

http://goo.gl/xxLT

http://goo.gl/xxLT

http://goo.gl/xxLT

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. PSOSPG-1330 Cisco Public © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 12

IPv6 Market adoption: 6lab.cisco.com/stats

“When a tree falls, we can hear it, when the forest grows, not a sound”

6lab is the sound of the IPv6 forest growing

Gandhi

Based on data from RIR, Routeviews, DNS roots, Alexa, Google, ITU, Apnic and Cisco


Measuring and Reporting

Collect and report metrics that represent every phase of the IPv6 Deployment: Planning, Network, Content, Users.

Collect and report on a per-Countries basis as local decision and local players, impact local adoption

Reporting must be on-going, to measure progress

6lab.cisco.com/stats is a Cisco contribution to the industry.

Widget code (http://6lab-stats.com/index.php)

It is about to be significantly enhanced (stay tuned)

– Mobile Apps, Forecast

6lab.cisco.com/stats

http://6lab-stats.com/index.php




Internet IPv6 Transit System readiness

IPv4 transit AS’s: 9133 IPv6 transit AS’s: 1577*

IPv6 enabled AS’s: 3372

Concentrated in TOP 300

(77% of AS’s are IPv6 transit)

25% CAGR


How much Content on IPv6 Internet ?

1. Test AAAA + httpget over IPv6 to top 500 Web sites for 125 countries

2. Based on their respective rank, apply the corresponding % of traffic they represent (Pareto function above)

3. Sum this up => Estimated available IPv6 content/activity for 125 countries

+ =>

alexa.com


Content reachable over IPv6


IPv6 Users : USA

3 % ~ 9M users

0.5% in March 2012

Countries between 10% - 3%:

Switzerland, Romania, France,

Luxembourg, Japan, Belgium

Germany, USA


Where are IPv6 users coming from ?

© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17

29%

11%

October 2011

January 2012

April 2012

July 2012

October 2012

January 2013

Source: Google Source: Google

10%

4%

October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 2013

www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements

• 10% at KDDI (6rd: by default on every new customer

• 20% at Free, (6rd: done a while back, leveraging CPE transition)

• 23% at VOO (DS over Docsis 3.0: in three waves of enablement)

• 16% at XS4ALL(DS over Docsis 3.0)

• 15% at Swisscom (6rd: enabled the bulk in just couple of days !)

• 4% at DT (DS over PPP, start in Nov 2012)

Source: http://www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements

6rd: by default on every new subs Dual-Stack on 4G/3G: by default on every new subs

http://www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements


China pushing forward…

19

Huge impact on B2C in China and B2B for Rest of the world

http://www.telecomasia.net/content/chinese-telcos-embark-ipv6-adoption?src=popular

The 3 largest SP in China:

• Will have 3M subs each by Dec 2013

• 45% wireline penetration (25M homes) by End 2015

• All mobile switch to IPv6 by

End 2015 !











…So is India

20

Huge impact on B2C in India and B2B for Rest of the world


Let’s do some Math…

Assess how much content is available in the US http://6lab.cisco.com/stats

Give an approximation of the % of traffic (http sessions) that an average IPv6 users will be able to fetch over IPv6 * nb of IPv6 users... over time (ex: 5% year 1, 10% year 2, 20% year 3, 40% year 4 , 70% year 5)

Estimate of IPv6 capacity (ex: BNG, 6rd BR, Peering…)

Estimate how much traffic will OFFLOAD my CGN (NAT44)

Assume you are an ISP in US (ex: Cable or DSL SP)

http://6lab.cisco.com/stats




IPv6 Network Transition options

IPv4 Access Network

IPv4 Core

Subscriber Network

NAT

IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT

NAT

IPv6 Access

Network

Dual Stack Core

Subscriber

Network

CE

IPv6-Only Subscriber

6↔4

Dual Stack

Core +

Access (ex: DOCSIS 3.0)

Subscriber Network

PE

Dual Stack

For more info see: http://www.cisco.com/go/cgv6

PE

CE

Subscriber Network

v4

over

v6

Dual Stack Core

MA

P, D

S-L

ite

IPv6-Only Access Network

NAT MAP

xlat AFTR

Dual Stack Core

v6 over

v4

Subscriber Network

IPv6 Rapid Deployment

6rd

or L

2T

P

6rd BR

CE

LNS

2-Today’s focus

6rd or Dual-stack access

Residential IPv6 service

DSL, FTTH Cable, DSL

3-Prosper phase:

IPv6 only Infrastructure,

IPv4: Legacy Service

Mobile-LTE Cable, FTTH,DSL All

1-Enable Core • Dual-Stack core

• MPLS/6(v)PE

IPv6

Internet

IPv4

Internet


The IPv6 business case for Wireline or Cable CGN Bypass

2011 2013 2015

CGN Only

2011 2013 2015

6rd + CGN

May, 2012 IDC Study – “The Business Case for Delivering IPv6 Service Now“

http://tinyurl.com/cgn-bypass-business-case












NAT44 Session State Growth …in a Real Mobile Network

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2 X over 8 months. Accelerating with Smartphone penetration

=> More sophisticated apps => more tcp sessions + keepalive


The IPv6 business case for Wireline or Cable

Mobile CGN Bypass

2013 2014 2015 2016

IPv4 + NAT44

IPv6 + {IPv4 + NAT44}

IPv6 + NAT64

March 2013, IDC Study - “The Business Case for IPv6 in Mobile Networks”

http://tinyurl.com/cgn-mobile-bypass-case












IPv6 only network, is the user ready ?

IPv6 only access network / Dual-stack applications

Growing share of IPv6 reachable natively

– Continue to promote “end to end” IPv6

IPv4 legacy content ?

– Option 0 => continue to promote IPv6 to WEB sites

– Option 1: NAT64/DNS64 (exclude some apps)

– Option 2: IPv4 to end-user + share IPv4 addresses Wireline: MAP (Stateless) or DS-Lite (Statefull)

Mobile Wireless: XLAT464

Professional network (ex: Emergency Response)

– Specialized Users devices and mobile networks

– IPv6 only environment

IPv6 Access

Network

Dual Stack Core

Subscriber

Network

CE

6↔4


MAP Benefits: TCO Savings vs DS-Lite

0%

20%

40%

60%

Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6

Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6

Connections (Thousands) 0 500000 2,500,000 5,000,000 8,000,000 9,500,000

Peak BW/Subs (Mbits/sec) 0.15 0.22 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

IPv6 Content 30% 50% 70% 80% 90% 95%

IPv6 Home Devices 80% 85% 88% 90% 91% 92%

Avg Sessions/household 200 220 242 266 293 322

Based on ASR9K+ISM - MAP is switched in LC

- DS-Lite require state/ISM


MAP and DS-Lite on Cisco – ex: ASR 9000

MAP does not route traffic through the ISM Blade, yielding line rate performance.

• Using A9K-24x10G line cards = 240 Gbps per slot!

• 7 x 240 = 1.68 Tbps on a 9010 chassis.

DS-Lite routes traffic through the ISM Blade • 14Gbps per slot


Enterprise Internet Presence: Time to get going

29


• Assess where your customers are coming from (Geo-Location and/or ISP/ASN#)

Or look at ISP’s market share, in your target market/geography

• Look at % of users coming from theses markets or ISP that are IPv6 enabled

(Google stats - http://6lab.cisco.com/stats)…monitor over time

• You can also monitor DNS resolver requests for AAAA (disable negative caching)

Decide when to enable IPv6 for your business

Estimate IPv6 capacity at your WEB Servers (DMZ, SLB, Security …etc…).

Let’s do some Math… Assume you are a B2C site (ex: online banking)

US:3% DE: 3.1% CH: 10%



Enterprises deploying IPv6 in production ?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Done

6months

12months

24months

Noplan

1:W

henareyoude

ploying

IPv6inprodu

con

InternetPresence

65% of Cisco Enterprise Technology Advisory Board

members will have IPv6 WEB sites by end of 2013


Top 3 drivers for Enterprise to deploy IPv6 ?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Internetevolu on

Globalisa on

VendorStrategy

Device/OS(BYOD)

Mandate

Leadership

Other2:W

hata

reTop

3driv

ers?

Internet Business

Continuity

B2C, B2B


Enterprise Deployment Options

Inside – Out • Globalization

• Technology Leadership

• Industry mandate

• BYOD-Security-Visibility

• Flatten management plane

Dual-Stack Enterprise IPv4 Internet

Outside – In • Internet Evolution

• Business Continuity

• B2C, B2B

IPv4 Enterprise IPv6 Internet


• Most WEB properties

~2% of cisco.com users

• 100% of Core WAN/MAN

• All iPOP / DMZ

• 21 production DC by August 2013

• Over 100 Buildings & Sale Branch offices

Both Ethernet access and Wifi

120 by August 2013

• ~17000 users/devices

Cisco on Cisco …

15%


Arriving Now: All-IPv6 Networks and Data Centers

Internet of Things

(age of the device)

Fixed Computing

(you go to the device)

Mobility / BYOD

(the device goes with

you)

1993 2003 2013

500M

10B

Source: Cisco IBSG, 2013

IPv4 IPv4 + NAT44 IPv6 Launch

Internet of Everything

(people, process, data,

things)

50+ B

IPv6 Everywhere

2023

http://www.cisco.com/web/tomorrow-starts-here/index.html







Source: Cisco IBSG, 2013

21 use cases to determine the amount of Value at Stake over a 10 year period

Both industry-specific and cross-industry use cases

Smart Buildings

Smart Factories

http://tinyurl.com/IoE-Economy

Smart Grid

“The World is Moving to IP”

Real world IoE Potential

Most of theses devices are plug’n play AND are NOT Dual-Stack

capable, IPv6 only protocols (6lowpan, RPL, PMIPv6)

Smart Cities








IPv6 End2End Restored

Unlimited Connectivity

Global Reach

IPv6 to fuel main Internet Growth Engines

Cloud/MSDC • Scale

• Virtualization

• Automation

• Simplification

Mobile Internet • Scale: 10 Billions

• 4G-LTE / VoLTE

• Simplification

• Mobile networks

Internet of Things • Scale: 50 Billions

• Automation-Self Networked

• IoT Protocols are IPv6 only

http://www.cisco.com/go/vni




IOS-XR 4.3

IOS-XE 3.8

StarOS 14.0

NXOS 6.2

IOS 15.3

IOS-XE 3.8

AnyConnect 3.x

(Android, iOS)

Windows, MacOS

Prime Infra CNR/CAR

WLC 7.3

UC 9.0

CUCM 9.0

CUBE/IOS 15.3

Prime Infra ASA 9.1 (incl IPS)

ASA-Cx

AsyncOS 7.6 Email

Webex Mobile

Client

Webex

Meeting EFT

All of our devices, applications and services…

100s of IPv6 features Engineering Process changes – Test and Hardening - USGv6 certified Portfolio


Maximize your Cisco Live experience with your

free Cisco Live 365 account. Download session

PDFs, view sessions on-demand and participate in

live activities throughout the year. Click the Enter

Cisco Live 365 button in your Cisco Live portal to

log in.

Complete Your Online Session Evaluation

Give us your feedback and you could win fabulous prizes. Winners announced daily.

Receive 20 Cisco Daily Challenge points for each session evaluation you complete.

Complete your session evaluation online now through either the mobile app or internet kiosk stations.

41

ipv6. where do we go from here - …d2zmdbbm9feqrf.cloudfront.net/2013/usa/pdf/psospg-1330.pdfipv6....

Documents