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Ill. THE WEST //I ‘V " " / /-\\ (L Y \ ~ = \ © _ Adenauer asserts willingness to ex

tend de Iacto recognition to East German regime in return for main- tenance of status quo in Berlin.

Former Costa Rican President Figueres planning moves against Caribbean dictatorships.

LATE ITEMS Geneva - USSR agrees to US article on duration of nuclear test cessation treaty.

i i 1 Tibet — Dalai Lama reported fleeing V. :11 J X.

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CENTRAL. INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 20 March 1959

' DAILY BRIEF

I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR: Khrushchev attempted to -create an impression

of moderation and restraint in his press conference on 19 March, which apparently was intended as a response to

' President Eisenhower's address to the nation on 16 March. Th 'et ' 's ks ti dto ' ‘d 'th e Sovi premier remar , me coinci e W1 _

Prime Minister Macmil1an's arrival in Washington, asserted '

that Western sentiment favoring negotiations "confirms the realism and timeliness of Soviet proposals!’ He promised -

consider any "reasonable" Western counterproposals, de- stared his readiness to accept a foreign ministers’ meeting on 11 May, but reiterated clearly his preference for an "immediate summit conference. Khrushchev evaded a direct reply when asked if the USSR would refrain from any "con-

? crete political actions" regarding Berlin in view of Pres- I’

ident Eisenhower's statement about a possible summit'

meeting this summer. He reaffirmed Moscow's intention to sign a separate peace treaty with East Germany if they _

West rejects the Soviet proposal for a treaty with both Cler- man states‘,

I

I

USSR - Nuclear test: The Joint Atomic Enérgy’ Intelli—_ I

gence”C0mm.ittee issued the following statement on 19 March 1959 u-0

A review and detailed analysis of geophysical records and radiochemical data from the US Atomic: Energy Detection System has revealed evidence of a previously unreported Soviet nuclear explosion at about 1010:45 hours GMT on 21 October 1958, in the

' ' ‘t of th N Zemlya test sit Si ls vicini y e ovaya I e. gna now have been reported from six electromagnetic

Approved for Release" 2020/02/21 C03160623

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stations. A preliminary estimate indicates that " the yield was probably less than five kilotons.

t This makes a total of se - '

II. ASIA-AFRICA *Turkey-Iraq: Eurkish Foreign Minister Zorlu, in sep-

arate talks with the British and American ambassadors on 16 March, emphasized Turkey's support of the Qasim government. He warned that Turkey's reaction would be "strong

/T1 M and immediate," implying even armed intervention, if Egyp takes "positive action"--either direct or indirect--against

' ' u n of its support; (Page 1) “'2

Nepal: With half the results announced in Nepal's first national election, the Nepali Congress party, moderately socialist 'th ut l'st for i n oli ie seems assured of

__.-“'

Wl ne rai egp cyv ws, gaining a majority in the new parliament. The Communist party has won only one seat so far. A single-party government should at least initially reduce the chronic instability

,Nepal has experien ed since theoverthrow of the Rana olig- t my in 1950-51 (Page 3)

III. THE WEST 0 West Germany: @hance1lor.Adenauer has told party offi-

cials that he is willing to extend de facto recognition to theJ East German Government, provided that the status quo in Be

lin can be maintained. He based this major potential change in West Germanj policy on Bonn's need to avoid negotiations on disengagement and to gain time to work out some broad so- lution of East-West problems. Adenauer apparently is willing

0 ‘ to permit dealings between the Western powers and East German officials on access to Berlin in return for a guarantee of con- tinued free access; (Page 4)

20 Mar 59 DAILY BRIEF ii

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Caribbean area: Former Costa Rican President Jose Figueres, during his current trip to Cuba, will probably try to dissuade Castro from actions that would increase Commu- nist capabilities in the area, and seek Castro's help for his

pl f r oustin the re ‘mes in Nicara a and the 1Domin- own ans o g g1 gu Ujéican Republic. He and his ally, Venezuelan President Betan-

court, are deeply concernedover Castro's demagoguery and his dile tion for su ortin r0-Communist rou . Dre <3 PP 8’ P 8 P revolutionaries in his crusade against dictatorships. (Page 5)

IV. SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS AND ESTIMATES

(Available “during the preceding week)

Threats to the Stability of the US Military Facilities Position in the Caribbean Area and Brazil. SNIE 100-3-59. 10 March 1959-

‘The Outlook for Jordan. NIE 36.3-59. 10 March l959.

Chinese Communist Intentions and Probable Courses of Action in the Taiwan Strait Area. SNIE 100-4-59. 13 March

Berlin. sms 100-2/1-59. 17 March 1959.

' LATE ITEMS _

_

*USSR — Nuclearfitest talks: an an abrupt reversal, the USSR has agreed at the Geneva talks to the American draft article on the duration of a nuclear test cessation treaty. The Soviet lead-

b b beli this d monstration of willin ness to mak ers pro a ly _

eve e g concessions in important East-West negotiations will increase pressure on the West to agree to Soviet terms for talks on Be lin and a German peace treaty. Moscow remains in disagree- ment with Western views on voting and inspection procec'lur<e§_]

20 Mar 59 DAILY BRIEF 111 /

/Approved for Release 2020/02/21 S\ §. hSS§

_ Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C0 V 44 [End the staffing of inspection posts. Following Prime Minis- ter Macmillan‘s talks with Khrushchev, British officials indi cated their belief that the USSR will make no concessions on its insistence on veto owers in the os d nt ol ' p prop e co r commis-

- sion except possibly as part of a "packase deal" '

me etin t.

the Dalai Lama was under protective custody of Tibetan, reb- M els in Lhasa whose cause he is believed to be supporting, 4 according to intercepted messages. Should he succeed in -

x reachinglndia or Bhutan, Peiping may be expected to exer pressure on Nehru to reject the Dalai Lama's request. While Nehru would be reluctant to jeopardize his relations with Pei- ping by offering asylum, he probably would not refuse the Dalai Lama permission to remain at least temporarily in India]

(

20 Mar 59 DAILY BRIEF 1V

*TIbet:[I_§he Dalai Lama fled Lhasa on 17 Maréh and ha requested asylum in India through the Indian counsul gezner 4 J

-\

. orrrtne lnonan political officer in Sikkim. As of 13 March

Z @ L Q r @ Q I-Iu|—n Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623

‘wi = _

I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC (No Back-up Material)

I I. ASIA—AFRICA

Turkey Supports

Eurkish Foreign Minister Zorlu informed the American ambassador on 16 March of Turkey’s conviction that Iraqi Prime Minister Qasim is not under Communist domination and that he now wants help from the West to maintain Iraq's independence. Zorlu added that Turkey could not remain dis- interested if the UAR now or later makes a move against Iragzl

Zorlu stated even more emphatically that Turkey's reaction to any UAR move would be "strong and immediate," leaving the implication that Turkey might even take military action. Zorlu left the distinct impression that the Turks would react to either an armed attack by the UAR or an internal revolt with attributable UAR support]

[in previous Middle East crises the Turks, seeing the potential threat to their southern border, have threatened military intervention. Since they are dependent on US logistical support to sustain any extensive military operations, however, they would probably not commit Turkish forces without prior consultation. The Turks have a total of approximately 70,000 troops in the vicinity of the Syrian border, half of whom are

‘e subject t.o absorption into the army in wartime.

fire chief of the Turkish General Staff, General Rustu Erdelhun, began a long-plamied. visit to Iran on 14 March. Mil- itary discussions probably will seek to coordinate the Turkish]

20 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 1 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623

I\ l'II'1I\I\I‘Il'I"l Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623

[and Iranian response to any future UAR moves against Iraq.. In contrast to the Turkish attitude, which has given Qasim the benefit of every doubt and discounted indications that he is under Communist domination, Iran has taken a hostile view of the Qasim governme@

Qor several months Turkey, Iran, and Israel have been exchanging intelligence on the Middle East, and Turkey's strong anti-UAR position probably reflects the Israeli conviction that Nasir is the Drincinal threa.LiT the Middle


Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623

Nepali Congress Leads in National Elections

The moderate socialist Nepali Congress is maintaining such a sizable lead in Nepal's first national elections--being held between 18 February and 3 April--that Tit now seems assured of winning a majority and forming the first government under the new constitution.

Results for about half the parliament's 109 seats have been announced to date. The Nepali Congress has won 38 of the 55 seats declared, or 69 percent. The other two major political parties, the rightist Gurkha Parishad and former Prime Min- ister K. I. Singh's United Democratic party, each appear. to be winning less than 1.5 perc.ent Lof the seats. The Communist party has won only one seat so far,. and has little support: in areas where polling has yet to be completed.

The Nepali Congress is the country's oldest, largest, and best-organized party. The country-wide support it is receiving probably is a result of its reputation as leader of the rebellion against the autocratic Rana regime in 1950-51. The party leader, B. P. Koirala, is likely to be called on by King Mahendra to form a government.

King Mahendra, who reportedly had. been attempting to di- vide political party strength evenly, may find a Nepali Congress government--supported by a clear majority and a popular man- date--harder to control than previous cabinets. Mahendra, however, retains ultimate power under the constitution promulgated in February, and internal dissension in the Nepali Congress is likely to make cabinet unity difficult.

The Indian Government apparently has backed the Nepali Congress as offering the best prospect for the stable andl pro- gressive government New Delhi feels is essential to protect its special interest in Nepal and to limit Chinese Communist influence.

\ I


Approved for Releas-e:_202_0702721 003160623

I I I. THE WEST

Adenauer Willing to Extend De Facto Reco nition to East Germany

hancellor Adenauer informed the executive committee of his party's Bundestag faction on 19 March that he is willing to extend de facto:.rec"ognition to the East German Government providing that in negotiating this concession the status quo :in Berlin can be maintained and contacts between East and West Germany can be increased. He based his policy change on the need to gain time to settle broad East-West problems and to avoid East-West negotiations on disengagement. Adenauer said that this move would probably be interpreted as an aban- donment of unification, but that the only way to achieve unity within the framework of a general detente is to stabilize the present situation, Adenauer called for and received firm party support for these views;

I111 a probable move to force Adenauer's hand on the unification question, the opposition Social Democratic party (SPD) has presented a new proposal on unification and European security which combines features of the Rapacki Plan and some elements of a German confederation. This proposal would provide for three stages in reunification, beginning with a planning committee of East and West Germans andending with free elections of an all-German government four iyears later]

Ellhe new moves by Adenauer and the SPD may both be tactical maneuvers directed toward two state elections in April, which will be the first since the beginning of the Ber- lin crisis. Both parties are attempting to appeal to a grow- ing demand in West Germany for some new app e problems of Berlin and German reunificatio@

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%EGR-E514



Anti-Communist Costa Rican Vie"s_With Castro for Leadership Of Drive Against Dictators

' '” '0

Fidel Castro appears to be meeting with competition for leadership of the drive against Latin American dictatorships. Former Costa Rican P.resident Jose Figueres, just back from long consultations with his close ally, Venezuelan Presi.dent Betancourt, has told the American ambassador that he intends to head the revolutionary effort against the Somoza regime in Nicaragua. He also appears deeply involved in plans to oust Dominican dictator Trujillo.

Figueres and Betancourt, both 1ong—time foes of Latin Amer ican dictators, share a deep concern over Castro’s demagoguery and his support for pro-Communist groups of Nicaraguan and Dominican revolutionaries. During his current visit in Havana, Figueres is expected to attempt to dissuade Castro from activities that would increase Communist capabilities in the area and to seek Castro's support for his own revolutionary efforts.

Figueres' National Liberation party (PLN) has prepared a public statement reaffirming its position in support of democratic movements dedicated. to ousting dictators, but taking a strong stand against movements that would include Communists. Representatives of the PLN, Betancourt's Democratic Action party, and. the Peruvian APRA party are scheduled to meet on 6 April, probably in the Costa Rican capital, and are expected to issue a similar statement, modified if necessary by the results of the Figueres Castro talks.

-jSEGRE-T——


Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 fir’ ¥

THE PRESIDENT The Vice President

Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Executive Secretary, National Security Council

The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury

The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research

The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific

The Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior

The Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce

Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director

Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman

National Security Agency The Director

National Indications Center The Director

United States Information Agency The Director


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