ir quad cost estimate status marc kaducak 02-nov-2012 ir quad cost estimate - m. kaducak1

IR Quad Cost Estimate - M. Kaducak 1

IR Quad Cost Estimate Status

Marc Kaducak02-Nov-2012

IR Quad Cost Estimate Kickoff - M. Kaducak 2

Options Considered

Case # Description Qty. MQXF (Q1, Q2, Q3)

# 4m Coils

# 6.8m Coils

Comment

1 (aka 50%)

Q1 AND Q3 8 + 2 spare = 10 (20 “half length” cold masses)

80 0 Probably requires two labs.

2 (aka 25%)

Q1 OR Q3 4 + 1 spare = 5 (10 “half length” cold masses)

40 0 Possible with one lab.

3 (aka 100%)

Q1, Q2, AND Q3 16 + 4 spare = 20 80 40 Probably exceeds budget.


Scope for Case #1

• All units are 150mm aperture ~4m length cold masses for Q1/Q3, cold tested and delivered to CERN

• Two(2) ~4m prototypes (one at each of two labs)• Twenty(20) production units (ten at each of two labs)• L2 managers included, but no overall project

management or project controls.• Cost estimates in this presentation do not include

mirror, practice coils, short models. These are being prepared separately.


Assumptions and Parameters Used

• FNAL overhead rates used for all except cold mass assembly from LBNL and cable from BNL. FNAL labor rates used for all.

• CD-3 and production unit start is 01-Mar-2017• LBNL bladder and key design• Yield is 8/9, total of 5 prototype and 45

production coils fabricated at each lab.


Scheme

• Two labs producing in parallel, synchronously• Single test facility• Two(2) reaction ovens at each lab• Three(3) sets of winding and

reaction/impregnation tools at each lab• Additional set of prototype winding/curing and

reaction/impregnation tools at each lab• First ten(10) production units at each lab take

twice as long to fabricate as remaining


Basis of Estimate

• Coil fabrication based on LQ, 11T experience (Ambrosio, Nobrega, Bossert, Yu).

• Magnet assembly from LBNL (Prestemon, Felice, Cheng, Hafalia).

• Cable from BNL (Ghosh)• Testing from FNAL MTF (Carcagno)


Summary Schedule including R&D


Coil Fabrication Schedule Building Block @ Max Production Rate

Assume that next coil can start when outer coil curing begins.


Coil Production at Max Rate


Learning curveAssumed all activities for first 10 coils took 2x longer than the rest (except for fixed times in ovens)

Outcome: First coil starts 01-Mar-2017, last coil finished 16-Oct-2020. Even with learning curve this is probably optimistic.


Cost Summary (50% case)

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22Total w/o

Contingency Contingency %Total incl.

ContingencyMaterials $0 $2,925,781 $2,928,765 $12,508,399 $11,763,772 $19,147,062 $15,972,425 $2,088,088 $152,992 $0 $67,487,284 30% $87,733,469Labor $0 $4,603,682 $5,276,569 $4,505,920 $6,566,141 $7,829,077 $9,489,099 $8,701,869 $6,273,794 $724,747 $53,970,897 30% $70,162,166Total $0 $7,529,463 $8,205,333 $17,014,319 $18,329,913 $26,976,140 $25,461,524 $10,789,956 $6,426,785 $724,747 $121,458,181 30% $157,895,635

IR Quadrupole (MQXF) Cold Mass Estimate using 150mm aperture, "half-length" coils. Production of two(2) full length prototypes and twenty(20) production cold masses using FNAL Rates. Overall project management not included. At-

year dollars and all burdens included.DRAFT 31-Oct-2012

NOTE: Short Models and Mirror not accounted for in this version.


M&S Summary (sorry for font)Phase PrototypeCMs complete 2 4 8 6 2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021FNAL M&S O verhead Rate 20.390% Escalation 102.7% 105.5% 108.3% 111.2% 114.2% 117.3% 120.5% 123.7% 127.1%

Base Mtl.Tooling FY12 $ NOTES:

$ ea Qty $ OH AdderWinding and Curing tooling $214,509 6 $1,287,054 120.390% $1,723,646.70Winding, Curing prototype tooling $214,509 2 $429,018 120.390% $559,467Winding machine $0 $0Curing MoldCuring press $0 $0Coil handling / storage $181,000 4 $724,000 120.390% $969,594.09 BNL Estimate

New Reaction Oven $600,000 2 $1,200,000 120.390% $1,607,062.03 A. Nobrega ($250k in 2006) + ancillaryImpreg station $100,000 4 $400,000 120.390% $535,687.34 BNL EstimateReaction and Impregnation tooling $300,222 6 $1,801,329 120.390% $2,412,373.07Reaction, Impregnation prototype tooling $300,222 2 $600,443 120.390% $783,016.45Cold mass assembly tooling $70,825 2 $141,650 100.000% $153,435 LBNL Estimate (includes M&S OH)Collaring fixture $0 0 $0 120.390% $0 BNL EstimateYoke alignment fixture $0 0 $0 120.390% $0 BNL EstimateTest Cryostat $151,018 1 $151,018 120.390% $196,937Test Facility Modifications 441,935$ 1 $441,935 120.390% $576,311Subtotal Tooling and Equipment $2,132,304 $6,734,513

Qty tested 2 4 8 6 2Parts Qty Coils 5 10 22 32 26

Qty Cold mass 2 4 8 6 2$

Coil Parts Production - set $50,580 90 $4,552,208 120.390% $677,378 $1,530,421 $2,286,083 $1,907,631Coil Parts full length Prototype $50,580 10 $505,801 120.390% $659,597Cable $277,404 100 $27,740,411 100.000% $2,925,781 $3,085,843 $6,971,942 $10,414,416 $8,690,350 BNL estimate (Includes OH)Mirror parts $361,000 0 $0 120.390% Mirror in R&DCold mass parts $663,155 22 $14,589,410 100.000% $1,475,387 $3,030,353 $6,224,108 $4,794,213 $1,641,176 LBNL EstimateTesting materials production $34,000 18 $612,000 120.390% $394,558 $303,900 $104,034 LBNL Estimate (includes M&S OH)Testing materials prototype $68,000 2 $136,000 120.390% $187,046Testing materials first two production units $46,750 2 $93,500 120.390% $132,061Ship to CERN $16,000 22 $352,000 120.390% $0 $21,427 $44,011 $90,395 $185,674 $143,012 $48,957 BNL estimate

Totals 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Material with Overheads $67,487,284 $0 $2,925,781 $2,928,765 $12,508,399 $11,763,772 $19,147,062 $15,972,425 $2,088,088 $152,992

Contingency 30% $20,246,185 $877,734 $878,629 $3,752,520 $3,529,132 $5,744,119 $4,791,727 $626,426 $45,897 totalTotal Material $87,733,469 $3,803,515 $3,807,394 $16,260,919 $15,292,904 $24,891,181 $20,764,152 $2,714,514 $198,889 $87,733,469

Production


Labor Costs (sorry again for font)Prototype

2 4 8 6 2

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Cumulative $AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

$AY Incl. Burden

FTE per Hour 1768

L2 ManagementScientist $0.00 $424,160.88 $435,617.52 $447,365.88 $459,432.48 $471,870.36 $484,599.96 $497,700.84 $511,173.00 $524,989.92 $4,256,911Engineer $0.00 $161,400.72 $165,767.68 $170,231.88 $174,819.84 $179,549.24 $184,402.40 $189,379.32 $194,506.52 $199,757.48 $1,619,815

DesignEngineer $0 $1,291,206 $1,326,141 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,617,347Design/Drafter $0 $284,772 $389,985 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $674,757Drafter $0 $167,394 $229,239 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $396,633Coil FabricationTechnician $0 $0 $0 $866,674 $1,780,022 $2,437,577 $2,503,488 $2,571,096 $1,320,342 $0 $11,479,200Technician Supervisor $0 $0 $0 $473,011 $485,776 $498,894 $512,366 $526,228 $540,442 $0 $3,036,717Engineer $0 $0 $0 $1,361,855 $1,048,919 $1,077,295 $1,106,414 $1,136,276 $1,167,039 $0 $6,897,799Designer $0 $0 $0 $200,244 $205,654 $105,603 $0 $0 $0 $0 $511,500

QAQC (incoming inspection) $0 $0 $277,877 $190,254 $195,382 $100,334 $103,039 $42,329 $43,475 $0 $952,690QA (Production) $0 $274,942 $423,551 $434,981 $446,703 $305,864 $314,121 $161,303 $165,670 $0 $2,527,135Conductor QC

ToolingEngineer $0 $322,801 $663,071 $340,464 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,326,336Designer $0 $94,924 $194,993 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $289,917Drafter $0 $55,798 $114,619 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $170,418

CM AssemblyEngineer (FNAL Estimate) $0 $0 $0 $0 $699,279 $718,197 $737,610 $757,517 $778,026 $0 $3,690,629Designer (LBNL Estimate) $0 $0 $102,913 $0 $40,804 $83,812 $172,155 $132,600 $45,396 $0 $577,680Tech (LBNL Estimate) $0 $0 $0 $19,489 $319,038 $655,341 $1,346,122 $1,036,856 $709,946 $0 $4,086,791Engineer (LBNL Estimate) $0 $0 $113,143 $1,351 $120,709 $247,949 $509,302 $392,286 $134,302 $0 $1,519,042

TestingTest CryostatEngineer $0 $484,202 $165,768 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $649,970Design/Drafter $0 $284,772 $194,993 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $479,764Technician $0 $0 $82,732 $0 $0 $289,531 $594,720 $458,086 $156,828 $0 $1,581,897Test Stand $0Engineer $0 $582,065 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $582,065Design/Drafter $0 $175,244 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $175,244Technician $0 $0 $396,159 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $396,159Testing Operations $0Technician $0 $0 $0 $0 $268,480 $327,446 $566,400 $436,272 $149,360 $0 $1,747,958

Shipping PreparationTechnician $0 $0 $0 $0 $14,834 $15,235 $31,294 $32,139 $16,504 $0 $110,005

Measurement/AnalysisScientist $0 $0 $0 $0 $306,288 $314,580 $323,067 $331,801 $340,782 $0 $1,616,518

TOTAL $0 $4,603,682 $5,276,569 $4,505,920 $6,566,141 $7,829,077 $9,489,099 $8,701,869 $6,273,794 $724,747 $53,970,897

Phase

Burdened Labor in $AY

Quantity of Cold Masses CompleteProduction


FNAL and BNL comparison(based on 02-Jul-2012 BNL estimate)

Item BNL FNAL

Mirror, Test Coils Yes No

Yield 4/5 8/9

Total Schedule Start->Finish FY15->FY20 FY14->FY21

Production Schedule FY17->FY20 FY17->FY21

Project Management, Controls

Yes No

Winding, Curing Tooling 2nd Mandrel at each lab 3 sets at each lab + prototype tooling

Reaction, Impregnation Tooling and Equipment

5 sets at each lab, oven for 5 coils

3 sets at each lab + prototype, one additional oven (clone of existing)

Cable cost $208k/UL $277k/UL

CM parts $361k $663k


25% Option Cost Summary

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22Total w/o

Contingency Contingency %Total incl.

ContingencyMaterials $0 $1,462,891 $1,851,007 $6,264,913 $5,881,886 $9,639,562 $7,986,212 $1,044,044 $76,496 $0 $34,207,011 30% $44,469,114Labor $0 $4,310,901 $4,625,162 $2,433,612 $3,283,070 $3,948,007 $4,760,197 $4,367,004 $2,967,662 $362,374 $31,057,988 30% $40,375,385Total $0 $5,773,791 $6,476,169 $8,698,525 $9,164,957 $13,587,569 $12,746,409 $5,411,047 $3,044,158 $362,374 $65,264,999 30% $84,844,499

IR Quadrupole (MQXF) Cold Mass Estimate using 150mm aperture, "half-length" coils. Production of one(1) full length prototype and ten(10) production cold masses using FNAL Rates. Overall project management not included. At-year

dollars and all burdens included.DRAFT 30-Oct-2012

NOTE: Short Model and Mirror not accounted for in this version.


Conclusions

• Production scheme is aggressive and still requires more study and optimization

• Despite different approaches and some different boundary conditions, BNL and FNAL estimates are in fair agreement for this phase.


Backup

CERN 10-y plan

LHC baseline plan for the next ten years. In terms of energy of the collisions (upper line) and of luminosity (lower lines). The first long shutdown 2013-14 is to allow design parameters of beam energy and luminosity. The second one, 2018, is for secure luminosity and reliability as well as to upgrade the LHC Injectors.

18

From Lucio Rossi


LHC Dipole Learning Curve (P. Fessia)

ir quad cost estimate status marc kaducak 02-nov-2012 ir quad cost estimate - m. kaducak1

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