Iran, the Persian Gulf and American Security

•WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT IRAN?

• http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Persian_Gulf_lg.jpg

• CFR Iran brief- http://www.cfr.org/interactives/CG_Iran/index.html

State supporters of terrrorism - http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2011/195547.htm

Statute toppling - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDu7bXqx8Ig

OIL

• The Persian Gulf produced 28% of the world’s oil supply and the countries in the region hold 55% of the world’s crude oil reserves.

• One fifth of the world oil supply transits the Straight of Hormuz, which is 600 miles long, as narrow as 34 miles and has a 2 mile wide channel.

• http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Persian_Gulf_lg.jpg

WHY DO WE CARE?

• Support for terrorist groups1. Hezbollah -2. Hamas

State Sponsors of TerrorismIn order to designate a country as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, the Secretary of State must determine that the government of such country has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism.

State Sponsors of Terrorism

• In order to designate a country as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, the Secretary of State must determine that the government of such country has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism.

• Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria• In the recent past – Libya and Iraq• Who might be added? Removed?

The 5th Amendment vs. Drone Strikes

• --No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, ..

• --The confidential memo lays out a three-part test that would make targeted killings of American lawful: The suspect poses an imminent threat, capture must be “infeasible, and the strike must be conducted according to “law of war principles.”

WHY DO WE CARE?

• Regional Stability1. Afghanistan2. Iraq3. SyriaNot to mention all the countries with a Sunni majority like Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states

WHY DO WE REALLY CARE?

• It has a nuclear program 1. But what does that mean?2. It has signed the NPT-obligations and rights.3. Capability vs. intent.

WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS AND THE COSTS OF THOSE OPTIONS?

According to the FAS study:1. Increasing pressure - $64 billion2. Isolation and a blockade - $325 billion3. Surgical strikes - $713 billion4. Comp. bombing campaign - $1.2 trillion5. Full scale invasion - $1.7 trillion6. De-escalation – benefit of $60 billion

Weighing the Benefits and Costs of Military Action Against Iran

• Extended military strikes would set back the program up to 4 years.

• Regime change would require occupation and a cost equal to Iraq and Afghanistan

• Israel could probably not do it alone

The benefits of military action

• Damage Iran’s enrichment facilities• Damage Iran’s military capabilities• Demonstrate US seriousness and credibility• Help to deter nuclear weapons proliferation

Potential costs

• Direct Iranian retaliation against the U.S.• Iranian strikes against Israel• Indirect retaliation • Breakdown of global solidarity against Iran• Increased likelihood of Iran becoming a nuclear

state• Global political and economic instability• Damage to the US global reputation• Unify Iranians behind their government

Time to Attack Iran?• Iran operatives were planning to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to

the US. • Sanctions are not working and Iranian nuclear development continues, but

an attack could convince them to give up their program. • The U.S. will have to keep forces in the region for years to come to contain

Iran.• Civilian casualties come be limited.• The US could reassure the Iranian government its intention was not

regime change.• The US could draw red lines to prevent Iranian retaliation• The US should conduct a surgical strike, absorb any retaliation and then

seek quickly to de-escalate.

IF WE ATTACK--

• Who is going to join us?• Will it be legal?• What will the rest of the world think?• What are the unknown unknowns?• Who is pushing for an attack?